美国最大的敌人既不是中国也不是俄罗斯（而是债务） [美国媒体]

America's Greatest Enemy Is Neither China nor Russia (It's Debt)

美国最大的敌人既不是中国也不是俄罗斯（而是债务）

What happens if the United States can't pay down its debt?

副标题：如果美国不能偿还债务，会发生什么？



by Joergen Oerstroem Moeller
What looked possible some years ago have with recent economic policy decisions turned into a realistic scenario: the United States face a technical default.
The figures and forecasts published by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) leave little doubt. Currently, net interest burden accounts for 1.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) equal to 9.4 percent of federal revenue absorbing about one out of every ten U.S. dollars of federal revenue. In 2022—four years from now—it will be 2.7 percent of GDP equal to 16 percent of federal revenue absorbing one out of every six U.S dollars of federal revenue. Measured in share of total outlays, net interest will jump from 7.6 percent in 2018 to 12.2 percent in 2022 and 13 percent in 2028. This forecast though is based on very optimistic assumptions for the U.S. economy. Taking changes over the preceding couple of weeks into account, a net interest burden of 20 percent of total federal revenue looks realistic—a staggering figure with every American seeing one of every five U.S. dollars paid to the government used to finance debt.

几年前看似可能的事情，随着最近的经济政策决定，变成了一种现实的情景：美国面临技术性违约。
国会预算办公室(CBO)公布的数据和预测几乎没有留下任何疑问。
目前，净利息负担占国内生产总值( GDP ) 的1.6%，相当于联邦收入的9.4%，约占联邦收入的十分之一。
到2022年，即四年后，这一数字将高达GDP的2.7%，相当于联邦收入的16%，每6美元联邦收入中就有1美元被吸收。以在总支出中所占份额衡量，净利息将从2018年的7.6%跃升至2022年的12.2%和2028年的13%。
不过，这一预测是建立在对美国经济非常乐观的假设基础上的，考虑到前几周的变化，占联邦总收入20%的净利息负担看上去是现实的——这是一个惊人的数字，因为每5美元中就有1美元支付给美国政府，用于为债务融资。

Analyzing the composition of the budget it becomes clear that financing the net interest burden in 2022, not to speak of 2028, constitutes a challenge that the United States is unlikely to resolve without resorting to unconventional methods.
Mandatory expenditure accounts for 61 percent of total outlays in 2018, and according to the CBO, 64 percent in 2028. The remaining part of the budget is discretionary spending, which, including defense, gobbles up $622 billion (38 percent of discretionary spending) and net interest burden, adding up to $316 billion (19.8 percent of discretionary spending). The remaining discretionary outlays or around $700 to 800 billion are mainly for Medicare and other social welfare related programs.

分析预算的构成，很明显，到2022年，更不用说2028年，为净利息负担提供资金构成了一个挑战，如果不诉诸非常规方法，美国不太可能解决这一挑战。
2018年，强制性支出占总支出的61%，根据国会预算办公室的数据，2028年将占到64%。
预算的剩余部分是可自由支配的开支，其中包括国防开支，消耗了6220亿美元( 占可自由支配开支的38% ) ，净利息负担总计达3160亿美元( 占可自由支配开支的19.8% )，其余的可自由支配支出，即大约7000亿至8000亿美元，主要用于医疗保险和其他社会福利相关项目。



The U.S. trade offensive against China has led some observers to float the idea that China might threaten to dump its stocks of U.S. treasury bonds onto the market. This, however, is not going to happen. If it did, the dollar would fall, making it more difficult to export to the United States and drive up interest rates with the added negative effects on growth reducing consumption. China—and Japan—do not want that.
But they may be willing to restructure the debt. This is an offer in the style of The Godfather : “an offer you cannot refuse.” Both sides stand to gain something. Trump will claim that he took on China and managed to cut payments. China, in turn, can claim that a trade war was avoided and a restructuring deal does not mean it has given up its claims. Rather, the money will be paid over a longer period of time, or whatever other narrative is chosen.

美国对中国发起的贸易攻势让一些观察人士认为，中国可能会威胁将其持有的美国国债抛售到市场上，然而，这种情况是不会发生的。
如果果真如此，美元就会贬值，从而加大向美国出口的难度，并推高利率，同时增加对增长的负面影响，减少消费，中国和日本都不想这样。
但他们可能愿意重组债务，这是一个教父式的提议：“一个你无法拒绝的提议。”双方都会有所收获。
特朗普将声称他挑战了中国，并设法削减了付款，反过来，中国可以宣称避免了一场贸易战，而重组协议并不意味着它放弃了自己的主张，相反，这笔钱将在更长的一段时间内支付，或选择任何其它方式。

At a first glance it may look like China stands to gain unprecedented economic power over the United States, but a deeper analysis leads to a different conclusion. It will bring home what the daily exchange of threats obfuscates: that the two economies can only thrive in tandem. China has no interest whatsoever in a weak American economy; it needs the U.S. market for its exports, incoming and outgoing direct investment with American companies, a strong supply chain allowing it to play on its comparative advantage and an American commitment to economic globalization. The United States, for its part, shares an interest in maintaining and deepening the existing supply chains, plus operating in Chinese markets where many large American multinationals harvest a strong profit.

乍看之下，中国可能会比美国获得前所未有的经济实力，但深入分析就会得出不同的结论。
它将使人们认识到，每天的威胁只会换来令人困惑的混乱：只有两国经济同步发展，才能实现共同繁荣。
中国对疲软的美国经济没有任何兴趣；它需要美国出口市场、需要美国公司的直接投资、一个强大的供应链使其能够发挥其相对优势，并使美国履行对经济全球化的承诺。
就美国而言，维持和深化现有的供应链，以及在许多美国大型跨国公司获得丰厚利润的中国市场开展业务，与美国休戚相关，有着共同的利益。

Politically, however, the United States will unquestionably come out as a loser. It would be interpreted as a loss of face at home, in China and all over the world: the world’s former economic superpower has to ask for help to service its debt so unwisely run up over several decades.
The question will be asked whether China will put a price on its help. It may not need to do so because the mere signal of American economic impotence is sufficient to tip the scales where both the United States and China have conflicting interests. According to Wikileaks, then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton remarked to Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd during a conversation in March 2009, "How do you deal toughly with your banker?" In an interview in May 2012, after his retirement as chairman of the joint chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen fleshed it out saying “Actually the way I said it was—and I still believe this—that it’s the single biggest threat to our national security. Obviously it’s complex, but the way I looked at it, if we didn’t get control of our debt, there would be continued loss of confidence in America.”

然而，在政治上，美国无疑将是一个失败者。
这将被解释为在国内、中国和世界各地丢脸：这个世界上的前经济超级大国不得不寻求帮助，以偿还几十年来不明智而累积起来的债务。
人们会问，中国是否会为自己的帮助付出代价，它可能无需如此，因为仅仅是美国经济无能为力的信号就足以扭转中美两国利益冲突的天平。
据维基解密报道，时任国务卿希拉里·克林顿在2009年3月的一次谈话中对澳大利亚总理陆克文说，“你如何对待你的银行家？”
在2012年5月的一次采访中，海军上将迈克·马伦从参谋长联席会议主席的职位上退休后，对此进行了充实，他说：“实际上，我说过——我仍然相信这一点——这是对我们国家安全的最大威胁，显然，这是复杂的，但在我看来，如果我们不能控制我们的债务，对美国的信心就会持续丧失。“

These astute and blunt revelations of the nexus between debt, power and confidence have largely been forgotten as the federal deficit over recent years fell to around 3 percent. The figures outlined above disclose that the birds let loose are now coming home to roost engineering a gradual power shift from one big power to another through the intricate ways such power shifts take place.

随着近几年联邦赤字降至3%左右，这些关于债务、权力和信心之间联系的敏锐而直率的披露基本上被遗忘了。
上面概述的数字揭示出，放飞的鸟儿现在正在回家栖息，通过这种复杂的权力转移方式，权力从一个大国逐渐转移到另一个大国。

Joergen Oerstroem Moeller is a former state secretary in the Royal Danish Foreign Ministry. He is a visiting senior fellow at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore.

作者简介：
约尔根 ·厄斯特罗姆 · 默勒是丹麦皇家外交部前国务秘书，他也是新加坡 ISEAS Yusof Ishak 学院的客座高级研究员。

mal
The sentiment is correct, but the article is not quite there. The sole reason why US seeks to pick a fight with Russia and China is the US debt. And it has nothing to do with those countries being creditors to US. The article mentions a total of $2.4 trillion that US owes to China and Japan. Well, Federal Reserve owns $4+ trillion of US debt already and can easily print USD fiat to buy the entire foreign held US debt, and then some. That $2.4 trillion is less than 12% of the $21 trillion US already owes, and from the perspective of a Central Bank, there is no difference between printing $4 trillion or $40 trillion. Fiat money has no cost or value, it's just an accounting measure to estimate people's risk tolerance and time horizons, and manage their consumption preferences. Just like it's impossible to run out of inches or meters, it's impossible to run out of fiat currency.

这种看法是正确的，但这篇文章并不完全正确。
美国寻求与俄罗斯和中国开战的唯一原因是美国的债务，这与这些国家是美国的债权人毫无关系。
这篇文章提到美国欠中国和日本的总额为2.4万亿美元。好吧，美联储已经拥有了4万亿+美元的美国债务，并且可以很容易地印出美钞来购买整个外国持有的美国债务，然后再购买一些。
但这2.4万亿美元还不到美国已经欠下的21万亿美元的12%，从中央银行的角度来看，印刷4万亿美元和40万亿美元没有区别，法定货币没有成本和价值，它只是一种会计手段，用来估计人们的风险承受能力和时间范围，并管理他们的消费偏好，就像它不可能用完英寸或米一样，它也不可能耗尽法定货币。



中国则是另一回事。中国搞清楚了整个法定货币的空壳游戏，并在最近自己印制了一堆法定货币。 ( 中国的总债务与GDP之比，现在已可堪与美国相提并论 )
中国的法定货币现在必须寻求资产增长，而要实现这一目标，唯一的办法就是从美元手中夺走资产基础，这就是为什么贸易战是不可避免的。

US and China both can print $trillions in fiat, but the Planet Earth has only so much assets to support this. Whoever loses this printing and claiming game will collapse in a hyperinflationary heap. (See USSR). Which is why US China confrontation will end with death of at least one financial empire.

美国和中国都可以印制价值数万亿美元的法定货币，但“ 行星地球”( Planet Earth) 总共就只有这么多资产来支持这一计划，无论谁输了这场印刷和声索的游戏，都将崩溃在一个恶性通货膨胀堆中( 参见见苏联)——这就是为什么美国与中国的对抗至少会以一个金融帝国的灭亡而告终。

Humber to Mondejar
Currently there are 4 excuses, justifications that become ideologies or road maps to establish a dictatorship and perpetuate a clique in power.
That as we know; in the background of so much propaganda, so many tactics and so many revolutionary rhetoric, it is the only agenda they have.
In this I discover them; because the Progressive Forces of the 21st century need to see in an integral way who their real enemies are; in order to focus their canons on a substantial struggle that does not help to continue taking steps towards a better planet.
Schematically if you do not want to get entangled in subtleties or profound academicisms inconsequential; those that the last century taught us that only serve for a group of rogues to use them to confuse the majority, so many, based on that can be clarified these three dictatorial ideologies more or less like this:
1-Nationalism KGb.
Putin is his most dangerous face. Also Assad, Duarte in the Philippines and other forms that are outlined as a threat by the tolerance of Bobama in the international arena with these dictators.
2-The apocryphal use of Allah.
The Iranian Shia of the Ayatollahs and the Saudi Wahhabi Sunni of the House of Saud are their most dangerous faces; because they serve to perpetuate a clique in power.
3-The communist-style cliques KGb.
China, North Korea in Asia and Cuba in Latin America; they are their most dangerous faces for progressive forces and free men today.
4-The retrograde forces within the democracies.
1-All free men must fight against all the traitor politicians and businessmen who have sold us to China and that if we continue along that road map, we would end up with our democracies. China is the greatest danger for free men.
As to defeat something it is not enough to enumerate how immoral it is or to put it all together; but it is also good to provide solutions for a better future, analyzed the failures of the twentieth century I have come to the conclusion that the alternative that so many people do not see by many previous ideological failures, should be this.
True Socialism; it's more freedom, not less!

目前有4个意识形态或路线，是建立一个独裁和永久集团权力的借口和理由。
我们知道，在如此多的宣传、战术和革命言论的背景下，这是他们唯一的议程。
在这方面，我发现了它们，因为21世纪的进步力量需要以整体的方式看到谁才是他们真正的敌人，以便把他们的力量集中在一场实质性的斗争上，否则对继续朝着一个更好的星球迈进是无济于事的。
如果你不想陷入微妙的或深奥的学术体系中，如果你不想陷入这些琐事，请忽略它们，上个世纪教我们的那些，只是为一群流氓服务，用它们来迷惑大多数人，在此基础上，可以大致澄清这三种独裁意识形态，如下所示：
1、民族主义克格勃
普京是其最危险的代表，此外，阿萨德、菲律宾的杜阿尔特和某些其他形式的独裁者可以被概述这一类威胁，奥巴马在国际舞台上容忍了这些独裁者。
2、假借真主阿拉
伊朗什叶派的阿亚图拉( 注：对伊朗等国伊斯兰教什叶派宗教领袖和法学权威的尊称 ) 和沙特王室的瓦哈比逊尼派是他们最危险的代表，因为他们的作用是使一个权力集团永存。
3、共产主义风格的克格勃
亚洲的中国、朝鲜和拉丁美洲的古巴，对于今天的进步力量和自由人来说，他们是最危险的代表。
4、民主国家内部的倒退势力。
所有的自由者都必须与那些把我们卖给中国的卖国贼政客和商人进行斗争，如果我们继续沿着这条路线走下去，我们将终结我们的民主，对自由者来说，中国是最大的危险。

要击败某个东西，仅仅列举它是多么不道德或把它放在一起是不够的；但为更美好的未来提供解决办法也是有益的，我分析了二十世纪的失败，我得出的结论是，如此多的人从以前的许多意识形态失败中看不到的另一种选择。
真正的社会主义，是更多的自由，而不是更少！

Humberto Mondeja
The main enemy of the USA It is not Russia or China, but its debt, says former Danish Foreign Minister Joergen Oerstroem Moelle, current senior member of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, in his article published in The National Interest.
This is one of the HP traitors who have sold us to criminal gangs, violators of human rights, with ideas of the twentieth century; who has hijacked power, like the group that runs Singapore.
These are the ones that have left millions of young people free without work and millions of adults without requalification; because they have corrupted politicians and taken everything they could to China to exploit humans there.
They thought that they could cheat free men with their KGB tricks forever and now they are putting us into fear with a big marketing operation because they know that their scam is running out.

“ 美国的主要敌人不是俄罗斯或中国，而是它的债务 ”，前丹麦外交部长 Joergen Oerstroem Moelle 发表在“国家利益”的文章中说，他也是新加坡 ISEAS-YusofIshak 研究所的现任高级成员。

——人这是HP叛徒之一，他们带着二十世纪的思想，把我们卖给了犯罪团伙，卖给了那些些侵犯人权的人，他们劫持了权力，就像管理新加坡的组织一样。
正是这些人让数以百万计的年轻人自由，没有工作，数百万的成年人没有重新获得回报，他们腐化了政客，并把他们所能得到的一切带到中国去，去剥削那里的人。
他们以为他们可以用克格勃的伎俩永远欺骗自由者，而现在他们用一个大的市场运作把我们置于恐惧之中，因为他们知道他们的骗局已经穷途末路了。



Колян Реалов> BigMike
USA would have to pay more for foreign goods in the case of duation of dollar. So it could give a short affect after that the debt will increase faster. Also the second point is that foreign holders of debt have something about $6 trillion from 21. American pension funds hold more than it. So duation of dollar is also undermining of American pension system too. The situation when people paid by strong dollars and have pension in weak dollars is not good.

在美元贬值的情况下，美国将不得不为外国商品支付更多的钱，因此，这可能会造成短期的影响，之后，债务将更快地增加。另外，第二点是，外国债务持有者持有21万亿中的6万亿美元债务，美国的养老基金持有更多，因此，美元贬值也在破坏美国的养老金制度，当人们用强势美元支付，并以弱势美元获得养老金时，情况就不妙了。

BigMike >Колян Реалов
The debt will not increase due to duation because the debt is denominated in the US dollar to begin with. Additionally, with imports getting more expensive, local manufacturing could get a boost. As a worst case scenario, the US Fed could just print more dollars to repay loans. This is an advantage only the US enjoys in the world.

债务不会因为货币贬值而增加，因为债务最初是以美元计价的，此外，随着进口变得越来越昂贵，本土制造业可能会得到提振，最糟糕的情况是，美联储可能会印更多美元来偿还贷款，这是世界上只有美国才享有的优势。

Колян Реалов >BigMike
It is an illusion.
If you buy oil for $10 per barrel after duation in 2 times you will buy it for $20. So the debt will increase again. Duation is giving quick effect only if you have not-working opportunity in manufacture. If you not ready increase production you have the need for investment. Duation is decreasing an opportunity for investment. US Fed could print dollars of course, but dollar could lose the status of reserve currency after it.
Foreigners don't buy US debt for last years. China is slowly selling the debt last month. The main buyers of US debt are pension funds and US Fed. So duation is a cheating of yourself in this situation.

如果你以每桶10美元的价格购买石油，2次贬值后，你将以20美元的价格购买，因此，债务将再次增加。
只有在没有制造业工作机会的情况下，货币贬值才能迅速见效，如果你不准备增产，你就需要投资。
货币贬值会减少投资机会，当然，美国联邦储备银行可以发行美元，但美元可能会因此失去储备货币的地位。
外国投资者过去几年都不购买美国国债，上个月，中国正在慢慢出售这些债券，美国债券的主要买家是养老基金和美联储，因此，在这种情况下，货币贬值是对你自己的欺骗。

Колян Реалов >FederalFarmer
Dollar was dued in 2008 after Q.E. After it was Euro zone crisis and Euro was dued too. China dued Chinese currency after it. And Russian government had no choice except for to due Russian currency in 2010. So I wouldn't want a race of duation.
All American politicians support creation of new job places in USA. But no one do something include Trump. The answer why is because USA's allies are depending from American market. If the tool of influence by American market would be lost USA to end to be a superpower and to be a great power as China and Russia. So USA government will try don't due dollar and safe dollar system until it is possible.

2008年，在经历了欧元区危机和欧元贬值之后，美元开始贬值，之后，中国让人民币贬值。
而俄罗斯政府别无选择，只能在2010年让俄罗斯货币贬值，所以我不想看到一场货币贬值的竞赛。
所有的美国政客都支持在美国创造新的就业岗位，但没有人能做到，包括特朗普，答案是因为美国的盟友依赖于美国的市场，如果失去美国市场影响这一工具，美国最终将失去超级大国的地位，成为中国和俄罗斯那样的普通大国，因此，美国政府将尝试在可能的情况下，不让美元贬值和维护安全的美元体系。