[ 美国 外交官 ] 中巴经济走廊的环保代价 [美国媒体]

CPEC's Environmental Toll
China is bringing coal power toPakistan, and Pakistanis will pay the environmental price.

中巴经济走廊的环保代价
中国为巴基斯坦带去煤电产业，巴基斯坦可能维持付出能源代价
By Shah Meer Baloch  April 18, 2018


 
  Gwadar Port in Pakistan（瓜达尔港）
Image Credit: Shah Meer Baloch
Pakistan’svirgin beaches are located in District Gwadar, which is the majorcoastal town of Balochistan, and also said to be the epicenter of theChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). But the beaches are in danger of beingbadly affected by a newly planned 300MW coal power plant in Gwadar. Besides thebeaches, there will be a significant impact on human lives and the environment.

巴基斯坦处女海滩位于该国瓜达尔市，该市归属俾路支省，为巴基斯坦主要沿海城市，也是中巴经济走廊(CPEC)中心。但此处海滩正面临着新规划的300 MW瓜达尔燃煤电厂的严重威胁。因除海滩，发电厂还会对人类寿命和环境造成重大影响。

Pakistan isalready on suffering from climate change. Will the environment and peopleremain safe as Pakistan carries out plans to invest billions of dollars inimported coal power plants through various projects under CPEC?

巴基斯坦已然受到气候变化的影响。CPEC各种项目下，巴基斯坦在通过数十亿美元投资进口燃煤发电厂时，是否考虑过环境与人民的安全？

CPEC is worth$54 billion, which includes energy, fiber optics, infrastructure, rail androad, and industry-based projects in Pakistan.

中巴经济走廊（注：简称CEPC））产生价值总额约540亿美元，其中包括巴基斯坦能源、光纤、基础设施、铁路和公路以及一些工业基础项目。

Announced by Chinese PresidentXi Jinping during his trip to 2015 Pakistan, CPEC aims to connect China’swestern province of Xinjiang with the port town of Gwadar. More than half ofCPEC spending, $33 billion, will go to 19 energy projects; according to Reuters, “aboutthree-quarters of the newly generated power will come from coal-poweredplants.”

2015年中国主席到访巴基斯坦期间曾宣布，CPEC的目标是将中国西部省份新疆与港口城市瓜达尔联接起来。CPEC过半以上投资，约330亿美元，分别使用在19个能源项目上。据路透社报道“约四分之三新建发电厂均将使用煤炭发电”。

Pakistan’s Questfor Energy

巴基斯坦的能源追求

Pakistan haslong needed more power than it can produce, with its energy deficit currentlyaround 4,000 MW. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Pakistan’s average energy demand is around19,000 MW, while the country generates only 15,000 MW.

长期以来，巴基斯坦的产出电力远远满足不了其生产能力的需求。目前能源缺口达4000兆瓦。据国际能源机构(IEA)提供的数据，巴基斯坦的能源平均需求约为1.9万兆瓦，而该国的平均发电水平仅为1.5万兆瓦。

And this demandgoes beyond 20,000 MW during the summer months of May to July, when airconditioning systems place an extra burden on the national power grid, oftencausing load-shedding for many hours. The IEA forecasts that total electricitydemand will rise to more than 49,000 MW by 2025 as the country’s populationincreases. According to the World Bank, only about 67 percent of Pakistanishave access to electricity.

今年（注：2017年）5月至7月夏季期间，其电力需求超过2万兆瓦。当时空调系统为该国（电网）带来额外负担。经常发生数小时的停电状况。国际能源机构预测，随着人口增长，到2025年，该国总电力需求达4.9万兆瓦。据世界银行表示，巴基斯坦仅约67%人口可以用上电。

While chairing ameeting on the Cabinet Committee on Energy (CCOE), in April 2017, former PrimeMinister Nawaz Sharif clearly told his federal cabinet and the departmentsconcerned that he wanted to see an end to electricity load shedding by Decem-ber2017. Sharif was of the view that solving the blackouts would enable his partyto secure votes be delivering on a promise it made to the public. Meeting theenergy demands of Pakistan and ending the load shedding was a part of thePakistan Muslim League-Nawaz’s 2013 general election platform, and it waspromised that CPEC would fulfill that claim. The party won the election, but isabout to complete its five year tenure in two months without making good on itspledge.

2017年4月，前总理纳瓦兹·谢里夫(Nawaz Sharif)在主持一次能源内阁会议时，明确地向其内阁和有关部门表示，他希望在2017年10月看到结束限电情况。谢里夫认为，解决停电问题可以兑现他所在党派对公众作出的承诺，为该党获得选票。满足巴基斯坦能源需求以及结束用电限制，是巴基斯坦穆斯林联盟（注：以下简称联盟）--纳瓦兹(Nawaz)2013大选纲领的一部分，而且该联盟将履行这一承诺。该党虽赢得大选，但（谢里夫）距五年任期届满仅有两个月时间。（注：谢里夫2017年7月28日辞职下台）

Pakistan hasbeen facing an energy crisis for decades, but most of the political parties whoget the opportunity to lead the country find that ending the crisis withintheir tenure is impossible. Then parties decide not to work for a long-termsolution due to the fear that if they don’t win another term, the new rulingparty might benefit from the projects they have started.

几十年来，巴基斯坦一直面临着能源危机，但大多数巴基斯坦政党发现，它们所推选出的领导人在其任内结束危机是不可能的。因此新执政党担心若是无法连任，很可能就会在他们的启动项目中摄取利益，所以决定不去做长远解决规划。

The ruling PMLNwanted to fulfill its promise no matter what may come, but in the process theystruck a hasty deal with China in the shape of CPEC without doing any effectiveanalysis of the projects involved. CPEC definitely would have been a win-winsituation if the ruling government had played its cards carefully and cunninglybut so far the government seems to be failing. It is accepting a majority ofcoal power plants under the banner of CPEC to fulfill its energy needs asquickly as possible. Pakistan could ask China to invest in other renewablesources of energy rather than harmful coal power plants, but it has not becausethe PMLN wanted to solve the energy crisis in a short span of time — in short,during its tenure. That over-reliance on coal will come back to haunt Pakistanin the form of environmental damage.

但无论如何，联盟执政党迫切希望能兑现自己的承诺，于是他们匆忙与中国达成一份中巴经济走廊协议。如果执政政府是在谨慎斟酌地打牌，CPEC肯定会是一个双赢的局面，但到目前为止，该政府似乎面正临失败。在CEPC的大旗下接受的发电厂大多为煤炭发电，它可以很快满足该国的能源需求。 巴基斯坦本可以要求中国在可再生能源进行投资,而不是在有害的燃煤发电上，但这样会无法使执政联盟在短期内解决能源危机。 对煤炭的过度依赖将会以损害环境的形式伤害巴基斯坦。


 
瓜达尔港，原文无此图

The Impacts ofCoal Power Plants

燃煤发电造成的影响

“Coal powerplants have very negative impacts on the environment and health. The mostworrying part of the coal projects under CPEC is that there has been a lack of,or equally no, economic cost benefit analysis and Environmental Impact Analysis(EIA) of the said coal-based projects in Pakistan,” Malik Amin Aslam, a formerstate minister for the environment who serves as global vice-president of theInternational Union for Conservation of Nature, told The Diplomat.

“燃煤发电会对环境和健康造成不利的影响。CEPC煤炭项目中最令人担忧的部分是，巴基斯坦没有对经济成本效益与环境影响分析(EIA)进行过分析”。前国家环境部长，全球国际自然保护联盟副主席，马利克阿明阿斯兰对《外交官》说道。

As of 2012,around 46 percent of Pakistan’s overall emissions came from the energy sector, particularlyfrom coal-fired power plants. Yet as Pakistan doubles down on coal,around the globe, coal consumption fell by almost 2 percent in 2016.China, responsible for half of global coal consumption, reduced its coalconsumption by over 1.5 percent. In the United Kingdom, demand for coal droppedby 52.5 percent.

截至2012年，巴基斯坦的总排放量中，能源部门的燃煤发电约占46%。然而2016年随着巴基斯坦煤炭消耗翻倍，全球煤炭消耗量减少近2%。占全球煤炭消耗一半的中国，煤炭消费量减少了1.5%以上。英国，煤炭需求减少了52.5%。

A reportpublished by the Asian Development Bank in February 2018 finds that the 10gigawatts of generation capacity expected to be brought online under theChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor willincrease greenhouse gas emissions substantially, undermining climate change mitigationefforts.

今年2月，亚洲开发银行(AsianDevelopmentBank)发布的一份研究报告发现，中巴经济走廊预计投入使用1万兆瓦电力，这将大大增加温室气体排放，损害缓解气候变化的努力。

The act of powergeeration is not the only concern, either. “Ashhandling and disposal problems will also exacerbate negative impacts on theenvironment,” Dawn reports, citing the ADBreport on Pakistan’s power sector.

这种发电形式也不是唯一的担忧。 “燃烧残留的处理整治问题也会加剧对环境的负面影响，”晨报(注：巴基斯坦报刊)援引亚行关于巴基斯坦电力部门报道表示。

According toAslam, “One of the most critical parts of these coal projects is that the coalis being imported from Indonesia. When it arrives Pakistan, as we have anineffective railway system, so it will to be transported by road to otherprovinces through trucks or by those trains which have open bogeys.” Aslam dubssuch trains “cancer trains” because of the health risks involved.

阿斯兰表示，“煤炭项目中最关键部分，就是煤炭是从印度尼西亚进口。对于煤炭何时进入巴基斯坦，由于我们的铁路系统效率低下，仅有通过卡车公路运输或是通过破旧火车（注：蒸汽火车？）运至其他省份。对于这种火车，阿斯兰称之为“毒火车”，因为它可能有害健康。

“When coal makesit to Gwadar or Karachi port then it has to go by trucks or trains with openbogeys to Sahiwal, Punjab, where a 1320 MW coal-based project is under work,”Aslam said. “The Sahiwal project would a disaster.”

“煤炭进入瓜达尔或卡拉奇港口后，还必须通过卡车或火车运至旁遮普省的萨希瓦尔，一个1320兆瓦的煤电项目正在那里在兴建中，”阿斯兰表示，“萨希瓦尔项目将是一场灾难。”

TheEnvironmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued a “NoObjection Certificate (NOC)” to the concerned company for starting work onthe Sahiwal coal-fired power plant, after doing the EIA, Saif Anjum, directorgeneral of the EPA told The Diplomat. Anjum said that the project“will use the super critical technology which would ensure emissions would bevery low.”

巴基斯坦环保局(EPA)已向相关公司企业颁发“无异议证书”(NOC)（注：或称不反对证明），要求这些公司企业启动建设萨希瓦尔燃煤电厂工作。环保局局长赛义夫·安杰姆(Saif Anjum)在进行了环境影响评估后向外交人员表示，该项目“将使用超临界技术，以确保低排放量”。

But experts saykeeping emissions low will not be possible with coal power. “No matter howeffective and efficient of technology is used, it would impact the environmentbecause there will be carbon emissions,” Jahanzeb Murad, an energy andenvironmental expert said.  “The coal plants also release ash and theissue of ash disposal is one of the pressing issues.

但专家们表示，煤炭发电不可能总是低排放。能源与环境专家贾汉泽布·穆拉德(Jahanzeb Murad)表示：“无论有多么高超有效的技术，终将会影响环境，因为有碳排放。燃煤发电要释放粉尘，而粉尘处理问题也是一个紧迫问题。”

“At the end ofthe last year, the thick layer of smog that blanketed Punjab’s skies was anexample of environmental cost. The smog in New Delhi, India … is equallyappalling and can be attributed to the coal consumption by the coal-basedindustries and power plants across the border in Indian Punjab and Rajasthan.They are also sources of pollution that have triggered the smog in Pakistan.”

“去年年末，笼罩在旁遮普邦上空的雾霾，就是付出环保代价的一个例子。同样，印度新德里的雾霾也令人震惊，印度旁遮普与拉贾森邦边境，座落着的燃煤发电厂也是造成巴基斯坦雾霾的其中一个原因。“

Murad also saidthat EPAs are not scientific organizations and generally there is a lack ofscientific process in reviewing EIAs and awarding NOCs. The EPAs do not havethe internal technical resources to review EIAs, other than some simple orroutine assessments. That means they have to rely on external resources if theywant to objectively uate the technical aspects of EIAs.

穆拉德还说，环境影响评估团(EPAS)并不是个科学组织，在环保审查以及授予无异议证书方面通常缺乏科学流程，除了一些简单例行评估之外，国内环保审查并没有技术资源来进行评估。说明他们若想客观进行环境影响评估，就必须依靠外界资源。

EPAs usuallycome up with a Committee of Experts to review environmental impact assessments.Many of the experts engaged to review EIAs lack an understanding of the EIAprocess. Although they are experts in their respective subjects, but due to apoor understanding of the EIA, their comments are at times not relevant to thedocument, explained Murad.

一般情况下，EPAS会成立一个专家委员会来对环境影响进行评估审查。但很多从事环保评估专家对环境影响评估过程缺乏了解。穆拉德解释说，虽然他们都是各自领域的科学专家，但由于对环境评估理解不够，他们的评论常与文件无关。

The environmentalimpact will include adding to Pakistan’s water woes. Environmentalists believethat Pakistan may run out of water in 2025 if steps are not taken to addressthe water scarcity in the country. “Along with animals and humans, coal powerplants will also compete for [water in] Thar and Gwadar,” said Basharat Saeed,an environmentalist and water expert in Pakistan. Thar Districtin Sindh and Gwadar in Balochistan are well known for their water scarcity. Ascoal power plants need a lot of water, Saeed thinks that in both districts,where coal power plants will be opened, it would increase the demand for water.

影响的环境加重了巴基斯坦的水危机。环保主义者认为，如果不采取措施解决巴基斯坦水资源短缺问题，巴基斯坦可能会在2025年耗尽水资源。辛德省帕克斯塔纳地区的环保人士和水专家巴沙拉特·赛义德(Basharat Saeed)说到“除了人和动物之外，煤炭发电厂还会争夺塔尔地区和的瓜达尔的水资源，”。而俾路支省瓜达尔缺水闻名。由于煤炭发电厂需要大量的水，赛义德认为，在这两个地区，批准建设煤炭发电厂，这将会增加水需求。

“The carbonemissions of the coal based plants of course would be destructive for theenvironment and human health, but in Pakistan, where there already is ascarcity of water, the plants will worsen the circumstance because of intensiveneed of water for coal power plants,” said Saeed.

赛义德表示：“以煤炭为基础的发电厂，碳排放会对环境和人类健康造成损害，由于燃煤电厂需要大量的水，这对于缺水的巴基斯坦，将致使环境更加恶化。”

In addition toall these environmental concerns, “Coal power plants are also not economical,”said Murad. With hydropower, he explained, “The cost starts decreasing after 10years of its use, and even after 80 years one can renew it easily. But themaximum age limit of a coal power plant is 30 years; sometimes it also cancomplete its lifetime in 10 years. Once it finishes its tenure andtechnology reaches its expiry date then it is no more of use. One needs toinstall another plant.”

除环境问题外，“燃煤发电也不经济，”参考水力发电他解释到，“（水力发电）使用10年后成本开始下降，即使80年后重建也适宜。但燃煤电厂的最高使用年限是30年；有时10年左右时间就有可能被关停。一旦寿命到期或技术过时，就没什么用了。到时还得另建一座。“

Politics andCPEC

中巴经济走廊与政治

Though manypolitical parties have raised questions over the suspicious nature of theChina-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), no one has gone to the tribunals yetto challenge the coal-based projects. “We [political parties] should go totribunals to challenge these hazardous and harmful coal power plants which areperilous for human lives and environment,” said Aslam.

尽管许多政党对CPEC中的许多问题提出疑问，但在煤炭项目上还没有人在法律层面提出动议。“我们(党派)应该诉诸法庭，向这些危害人类生命和环境的燃煤电厂提出质疑，”阿斯兰说到。

CPEC is anunprecedented initiative in the history of the Pakistan-China friendship, butin business interests are what matter. In the case of this flagship projectPakistan is on the receiving end, so it should uate, research, andeffectively analyze any project before approving it. Pakistan has a dire needfor more energy but it should not opt for coal-based power plants until theirimpacts have been scientifically researched.

在中巴中友谊史上，CPEC是一个前所未有的大动作，但重心是在商业利益上。就这一旗舰项目而言，巴基斯坦属于接收者，因此它应该在所有项目批准之前进行评估、研究和有效分析。巴基斯坦迫切需要更多的能源，但在对其产生影响之前进行科学调研，它不应选择以煤炭为基础的发电厂。

Interestingly,the apex court of Pakistan has been very active in dealing with politicallymotivated cases and sometimes the court, under the leadership of Chief JusticeSaqib Nisar, has gone the extra mile and taken suo moto noticeagainst many issues, such as the conditions of public hospitals. But Nisar hasignored coal power plants and their dangerous impacts.

有趣的是，巴基斯坦最高法院在处理涉及有政治目的的项目时非常积极，有时，法院在首席法官Saqib Nisar的领导下对许多问题，如关于公立医院环境，进行了额外关照，但Nisar忽略了燃煤发电厂的危害影响。

“Pakistan shouldopt for other sources of energy such as hydro, solar, and wind that areenvironment friendly,” said Aslam. “Only Khyber Pakthunkwa and Gilgit[provinces] have the strength to produce 5,000 MW through hydro. The KhyberPakthunkwa government offered the central government new projects that wouldproduce 6,000 MW, which was turned down by the central government.”
A naturalist,who also is a good friend, often says that most of the time development comeswith the heavy cost of destroying nature and the environment. Keeping thenatural beauty of Gwadar and its untouched beaches in mind, the disastrousimpacts of development can be minimized if developing or underdeveloped states,like Pakistan, opt instead for environment- and nature-friendly projects.
Shah Meer Balochis a former Visiting Fellowat the Institute for Peace Research andSecurity Policy at the University of Hamburg, a fellow ofthe Swedish Institute and the Institute for Foreign and Cultural Relations(Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen/IFA), and a freelance writer. His researchfocus is on Asia-Pacific politics, Balochistan issues, extremism and humanrights.

“巴基斯坦应该选择其他能源，如水电、太阳能和风能，这些都是环保能源，”阿斯兰说。“只有开伯尔·帕克通克瓦(Khyber Pakthunkwa)和吉尔吉特(Gilgit)两省有实力通过水力发电生产5000兆瓦。开伯尔·帕克桑克瓦(Khyber Pakthunkwa)政府向中央政府申请生产6000兆瓦电力的新项目，但遭到中央政府的拒绝。”

作者：Shah Meer Baloch