（二）quora问题：谁是2018年中美贸易战的赢家？ [美国媒体]

Who won the US-China trade war of 2018?

quora问题：谁是2018年中美贸易战的赢家？

Deepesh Mutreja, MBA from Management Development Institute, Gurgaon (2020)
The battle for trade has only one winner and it’s not who we think it is.
The just concluded round of talks between the delegates of US and China has resulted in China making some promises and the world rejoicing over them. But the question that we should be asking is that whether it is really the US which was successful here or China ?
The question is as important as the answer.
A rising China has created problems and solutions for the world at large. It is nothing but obvious that the day wasn’t far away when the country which helped the world rise by driving down prices of almost all goods will someday come back to ask it’s fair share. By making sure that US comes to the negotiation table China ensured that its friends and foes know that it’s not shy of negotiations and that it’s a responsible nation. This has been an ongoing trend in China’s dealings with various nations. It realises that it won’t be considered a serious contender to US’s throne of the world superpower till it starts showing the responsible character. Whether its the recent Doklam standoff with India where both parties sorted their issues slowly but steadily or its dealings with North Korea. Time and time again China is playing it’s cards right whereas the US with a unclear foreign policy is trying to be the bully( which it was before too but is recently coming too much in the public eye )
The US on the other hand is not only letting it all happen but is also creating changes for China. In the grand geopolitical game it’s the perception that matters and this is where China is winning hands down. The calling off of the Iran nuclear agreement is another fallout of Trump which could’ve been handled in a more toned down way. The fact that China agreed to bring down it’s surplus with US by $360 billion shows that although US can boast about it but it’s China which is calling the shots here. Since the time Trump has entered the halls of White house the Chinese administration has virtually got a free hand at showcasing it’s support for globalisation and it’s anger towards protectionism.
The bottom line of this geopolitical balance sheet can not be a zero figure. It’ll either go one way or the other. It’s upto the leadership of US to decide how democratic it wants the world to be. It’s upto them to live up to what people are expecting from them which is befitting of a world superpower.

这场贸易战只有一个赢家，而它并不是我们想象的那个。
刚刚结束的中美两国代表的会谈，结果是中国做出了一些承诺，全世界都为之高兴。但我们应该问的问题是，在这件事上取得成功的到底是美国，还是中国？
这个问题跟答案一样重要。
一个崛起的中国已经为全世界所有国家带来了问题和解决方案。毫无疑问，当这个国家通过压低几乎所有商品的价格，来推动世界经济增长时，它总有一天会反过来要求得到公平的市场份额，这一天并不遥远。通过让美国来到谈判桌上，中国确保了它的朋友和敌人都知道：它并不回避谈判，而且它是一个负责任的国家。在中国与各国的交往中，这一直是一个趋势。它意识到，在它开始体现出负责任的角色之前，它不会被视为美国世界超级大国宝座的有力竞争者。最近与印度在洞朗的对峙中，双方都在缓慢而稳定地解决问题，与朝鲜打交道也是如此。中国正在一次又一次地打出正确的牌，而美国的外交政策却不明朗，一直试图成为恃强凌弱者（过去也是如此，但最近在公众的眼前出现的太多）。
另一方面，美国不仅放任一切发生，而且也在为中国制造变化。在宏大的地缘政治游戏中，人们的看法最重要，而这正是中国赢得胜利的关键所在。退出伊朗核协议是特朗普的另一个败笔，原本可以用更缓和的方式处理的。中国同意将中国对美国的贸易顺差减少3600亿美元，实际上表明尽管美国可以为此吹嘘，但在这件事上发号施令的是中国。自特朗普入主白宫以来，中国政府无拘无束的展示了它对全球化的支持和对保护主义的愤怒。
地缘政治资产负债表的底线不可能是零。要么走一条路，要么走另一条路。美国想要让世界变得多么民主，取决于它的领导能力。美国是否适合成为一个世界超级大国，取决于是否辜负人们对他们的期待。

Samuel Liu, lives in Shanghai
China
The USA policies are short-term, while the Chinese government has been continuous since 1978. Also we have no idea of Trump’s business concerns in the Middle Kingdom.
- - - - -
WashingtonPost https://www.washingtonpost.com/b...
Analysis | China is winning Trump’s trade war
NPR Friedman Of 'New York Times' Sorts Through Foreign Policy News
Also:

中国。
美国的政策是短期性的，而中国政府自从1978年以来一直延绵至今。我们也对特朗普在中央王国的业务担忧一无所知。
华盛顿邮报
分析：中国正在赢得特朗普的贸易战。
美国国家公共电台 纽约时报的Friedman：外交政策新闻整理。



还有：



Yu Frank, studied at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology
EU loses.
'Absurd and incomprehensible': France warns that US-China trade deal could cost Europe
How come none of the participants in a war win or lose???
The fact is that:
1, USA asks China to cut trade surplus
2, China tells USA to list them goods that can be sold to China
3, USA finds out it only exports agricultural products and gases to China. That’s not enough to cut trade deficit.
4, China gives USA a list, which contains goods that USA bans exporting to China but EU doesn’t.
Conclusion: China uses EU’s market share to please Mr.Trump, that’s why at the end EU loses the USA-China trade war.

欧盟输了。
“荒谬和不可思议”：法国警告中美贸易协议可能以欧洲为代价。
为什么战争的参与者既不是赢家也不是输家？
事实如下：
1、美国要求中国削减贸易盈余。
2、中国要求美国列出可以向中国出售的商品清单。
3、美国发现它只向中国出售农产品和天然气。这不足以削减贸易逆差。
4、中国给美国一个清单，包含了美国禁止向中国出口而欧盟不禁止的东西。
结论：中国利用欧盟的市场份额来取悦特朗普先生，这就是为什么中美贸易战的最后输家是欧盟。

Michel McGill, Born, lived and worked in China.
In a sense,
Both win. It is called win-win.
Michel McGill's answer to Who won in the commercial war between China and America? They had an agreement on May 20.
In another sense, the US win because China made a huge concessions. But the win or trade war is irrelevant. Win the trade war is not the US goal. The US is to stop the development of China. This political goal is not achieved. For the last forty years, China is always lost as it created more wealth for the US. By doing so, however, China gets the capability of production. The US simply cannot stop the development of China because China is the main source of wealth in the global economy.

在某种意义上：双方都是赢家。这叫做双赢。
换句话说，因为中国做出巨大的让步，所以美国赢了。但这场胜利或者贸易战没有关系。赢得这场贸易战并不是美国的目标。美国想要阻止中国的发展。这个政治目标没有实现。过去40年，中国总是失败，因为它为美国创造的财富更多。然而通过这样做，中国获得了制造的能力。美国不能轻易的阻止中国的发展，因为中国是全球经济的主要财富来源。

Sam Yan
There will be no trade war between US-China. Two countries’ economies are tangled so deeply together. A trade war will hurt both sides badly. The hawk attitude of US before any real negotiation started was merely a strategic trick played by Trump who mentioned this type of tricks in his book.

美中之间没有贸易战争。两国的经济深深的纠缠在一起。一场贸易战争会沉重的打击双方。在任何真正的谈判开始之前，鹰派的态度仅仅是特朗普一个战略伎俩，他在他的书中提到过这类把戏。

Joel Goldstein, Professor, Campus Dean at Strayer University (2006-present)
Putin. China and the USA are distracted for a few weeks. Russia's people ignore their own economy for a few weeks.

普京。中国和美国分心了好几周。俄罗斯人对他们本国经济的忽视也持续了好几周。

Xing Fan, lives in China
In short time, US won, China lose a little. US get most what it want. China have to import some US goods. EU and other countries will lose some export share to China.
In long time, it is hard to tell. China get time to develop and realize its shortcoming. China’s desire to be No.1 will be stronger. China will not trust US in heart.

短期内美国赢了，中国输了一点点。美国获得了大部分想要的东西。中国必须进口一些美国商品。欧盟和其他国家会失去部分对华出口份额。
长期就很难讲了。中国获得了发展的时间，并认识到自己的不足。中国想要成为第一的渴望更加强大了。中国内心中不会相信美国。

Xiaohua Yang, former Financial services manager
A2A. 2018 is not yet half-way over. Don’t we need to wait and see? Given Trump’s tempestuous temperament, who knows what comes next?
Meantime, enjoy the fact that except for threats, the war hasn’t materialized.

谢邀。2018年还没有走完一半呢。我们不需要等等看吗？鉴于特朗普爆烈的急脾气，谁知道接下来会发生什么？
与此同时，享受威胁之外的现实吧，贸易战还没有真正发生呢。

Joe James, MBA, MSCS, resident of Silicon Valley
I don’t see any concessions from China, but the big glaring concession from Trump on ZTE informs us that China won round one. Trump should have written The Art of the Bad Deal.

我没有看到中国的任何让步，却看到了特朗普对中兴做出的巨大让步，这告诉我们：中国赢得了第一局。特朗普应该写过一本《糟糕交易的艺术》。

Sean Santos
Nobody, because it lasted for a week and both sides decided to call it off.
You could say the United States lost because it is still paying out the nose with trade.

没有赢家，因为持续一周后，双方都决定喊停了。
你可以说美国输了，因为它依然在为贸易付出代价。

David Treacy, former Program Manager at U.S. Department of Energy (1998-2005)
First, there is never a winner in any trade conflict. Each side may gain, but there is always a cost.
Second, it is still 2018. Shouldn't we wait until the game (year) is over before tallying the points?

首先，任何贸易冲突都不存在胜者。每一边也许有所斩获，但总是要付出代价。
第二，现在还是2018。我们难道不应该等游戏（今年）结束了再计算点数吗？

Thomas Hanson, History Buff, incessantly curious
No one, because it hasn’t started yet. There has been no increase in sanctions as of yet, and as of May 20th, it looks like this potential trade war is off, or at least might be. But who would win? Trick question. No one wins a trade war, there are only losers and those who lose slightly more.

没有胜者，因为它还没有开始。到目前为止，制裁还没有增加，也就是5月20日，看起来潜在的贸易战已经取消了，或者至少是可能取消了。但谁是胜者？狡猾的问题。贸易战没有赢家，只有输家，和输的更多的一家。

John Stoeffler, lives in The United States of America
See this: US, China Say Beijing Commits to Buying More American Goods
and decide for our self.

看看这个：美国和中国说北京承诺购买更多美国产品。
然后自己决定。

Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)
Trump up against Xi at strategic deal making is like a couch potato against an Olympic athlete.
The US is too dependent on China and does not have the depth that China has to engage in a trade war with them.
China is in control and will smooth the waters diplomatically while holding the sword of Damocles over the head of Trump and the US.

特朗普和中国在战略决策方面相比，就像葛优躺爱好者跟奥林匹克运动员对打。
美国对中国的依赖太深，并没有中国那种深度来参与贸易战。
中国一切尽在掌握，并且通过外交手段抚平波澜，同时掌握着高悬在特朗普和美国头顶的达摩克利斯之剑。

He Hang
According to DPP, Taiwan region is the winner.

根据民进党的说法，台湾地区是赢家。

Jia Wuyu, studied at University of Minnesota - Twin Cities
Interesting…..
In China, most people think that China have lost from this trade war.
In United States, most people think that U.S. have lost from this trade war.

真有趣……
在中国，大多数人认为中国打输了这场贸易战。
在美国，大多数人认为美国打输了这场贸易战。

Xiaoxi Jin
Both Lose.
American People: Trump is a idiot. He got only vague promises from Chinese that they will never fulfill.
Chinese People: Liuhe is a traitor. He sign this unfair treaty without a even try to fight back. Trump bent him like a chopstick.

双方都输了。
美国人：特朗普是个蠢货，他只得到了中国人含糊不清的承诺，他们永远不会兑现。
中国人：XX是个叛徒。他甚至没有试着反击一下，就签了这个不平等条约。特朗普就像折断一根筷子一样把他打败了。

Nathan Wolfson, Supervisor of instructors at DLIELC (1997-present)
China had to back down. Why? China, with its huge population to take care of or risk a revolution, needs to continue to export and grow economically. The U.S. is China’s lifeline in more ways than one. Many “Chinese” companies are actually owned or co-owned by U.S. manufacturers. A trade war with the U.S. would be suicide for those in power in China.

中国不得不退却。为什么？中国有庞大的人口需要养活，也有爆发革命的危险，需要继续出口并且获得经济增长。而美国在很多方面都是中国的生命线。很多“中国”的公司实际上属于或者为美国制造商共同所有。与美国的贸易战会成为中国当权者的自杀行为。

Chien-Sheng Tsai, former Coolie
All-inclusive, it was a face-saving gift for Trump. China showed Trump and his trade minions that Be Nice is better than Be Best. The ZTE pivot by Trump and the China soy play were markers. Trade war is a game better not actually played. Trump cannot afford a trade war that hurts his constituency, and China doesn't need a trade war to distract from OBOR and its other initiatives.
Beyond an accounting of who seemingly beggared whom, one should look towards the long-term implications of Trump's trade war folly. China learns from adversity, and China is going to accelerate efforts to shield itself from any future US trade moves by further diversifying globally. Once burnt, twice shy. For example, those soy purchases from the USA will never recover to their pre-Trump levels--China will source from Brazil, Russia and others more extensively going forward. Necessity is the mother of invention, and efforts will be doubled to make sure that Made in China 2025 will not be derailed.
China focuses on the long-term, and is not run on whim like the USA under Trump. So, China will appease Trump just to get beyond him, and allow Trump to call it whatever he pleases for the sake of his audience. China is getting stronger everyday, while the USA is getting weaker each day that Trump remains in administration, and that is an equation which China and the rest of the world can live with.

总而言之，对于特朗普而言，这是一个挽回脸面的礼物。中国向特朗普和他的贸易宠臣展示了：友善待人比唯我独尊更好。特朗普打的中兴牌，中国打的大豆牌，它们是标志。贸易战是一种最好不要来真的的游戏。特朗普承担不起会伤害他的选民的贸易战，而中国不需要贸易战来分心，她要忙于一带一路和其他的计划。
除了计算谁似乎在乞求谁之外，人们更应该关注特朗普贸易战愚蠢行为的长期影响。中国从逆境中学习，将加快努力，以保护自己在未来不受美国贸易的影响。吃一堑长一智。例如，从美国购买的大豆将永远无法恢复到特朗普以前的水平——中国将从巴西、俄罗斯和其他国家拓展更为广泛的货源。需求是发明之母，为了确保中国制造2025不会脱轨，中国需要加倍努力。
中国关注的是长期目标，而不是像特朗普治下的美国那样靠突发奇想运行。因此，中国将会安抚特朗普，这只是为了超越他，让特朗普随心所欲地称这是为了他的听众的利益。中国每天都在变得越来越强大，而美国的日子一天天变弱，特朗普仍在执政，这是一个中国和世界其他国家都能接受的方程式。

Yunxue Chen, Father King of My Beloved Daughter Princess (2017-present)
It is just an agreement on no trade war which we all know Trump can throw it into the rubbish bin easily and later a joint statement with no further detailed plan on how the statement be enforced and no compulsory enforcement term.
Thus, everything is still vague.
China is willing to buy more from US to reduce its trade deficit with China. However, what can US offer China? Like Chinese netizens are joking that if US is willing to sale F35 or nuclear aircraft carrier, CCP can even make US trade surplus in Sino-US trade.

这只是一项“不发生贸易战”的协议而已，我们都知道特朗普可以轻易的将它丢进垃圾桶，之后的联合声明也没有对如何执行该声明进行任何进一步的细划，也没有强制执行的条款。
所以，所有事情依然含糊不清。
中国愿意从美国采购更多货物，来削减其对华的贸易逆差。然而，美国可以卖什么给中国？就像中国网民开玩笑说的，如果美国愿意卖F35或者核动力航母，那么CCP甚至可以让美国实现对华贸易顺差。

Zhang Wu
If you are a British people in 1900. UK and USA. Who will be No1 in the future?
Americans work harder than UK, learn and steal intelligent properties from UK, has much more population than UK, avoid involving in any war while UK is busy fighting everywhere on earth.
Now think about USA and China.

好比你是1900年的英国人。我问你，你觉得美国和英国未来谁是老大？
美国人工作比英国人勤奋，从英国学习并盗窃知识产权，拥有的人口也比英国多，并且避免加入任何战争，而英国忙着满世界的打仗。
想想现在的美国和中国。