[cnn]澳大利亚因中美贸易战损失惨重 [美国媒体]

Australia has a lot to lose in the US-China trade war

澳大利亚因中美贸易战损失惨重

by Daniel Shane @CNNMoney August 21, 2018: 5:28 AM ET

Can the US win a trade war with China?

美国能在贸易战中赢过中国吗？

One country could lose more than most from the trade war between the United States and China.

在中美两国贸易战之中，有个国家损失的更多

Australia risks getting caught in the crossfire as the world's two biggest economies move ahead with tariffs on large swathes of each other's exports in a dispute that shows little sign of ending anytime soon.

在世界上最大的两个经济体持续进行对彼此出口的大部分商品加征关税之际，澳大利亚面临着被夹在中间集火的风险

Australia thrives on selling goods to countries around the world — particularly to China, which sucks up about a third of Australian exports every year.

澳大利亚公司向世界各国出售商品，特别是中国，占据了澳大利亚年出口总量的三分之一。



Australia has gone more than a quarter of a century without a recession, and analysts say China is a major reason for that winning streak.

澳大利亚将近四分之一个世纪没有出现衰退，分析家们指出，中国是（土澳经济）持续发展的主要动力。

The resource-rich country has benefited hugely from China's voracious appetite for goods ranging from iron ore and copper to milk and wine. Chinese visitors also spend billions of dollars per year in Australia.

这个资源丰富的国家从中国对铁矿石、铜、牛奶和葡萄酒等商品的贪婪胃口中获益匪浅。中国游客每年在澳大利亚也会花费数十亿美元。

Demand from China for Australian raw materials has helped boost the profits of mining giants like BHP Billiton (BBL) and Rio Tinto (RIO).
中国对澳大利亚的原材料需求，促进了矿业巨头们如必和必拓和力拓的利润。

But concerns are mounting. The Australian dollar has lost almost 10% against its US counterpart since the end of January, which analysts say is partly because of fears that an escalating trade war will hurt global growth and dent demand for Australian goods.

但是人们的担忧正在加剧。一月底以来澳元对美元汇率已经下跌了10%，分析家称，一定程度上是因为担心贸易战不断升级升级会损害全球经济增长，削弱对澳大利亚商品需求。



Iron ore mining operations in the Pilbara region of Australia.

澳大利亚皮尔巴拉地区的铁矿开采业务情况

For example, US tariffs on Chinese steel trickle down to Australia through the iron ore it sells to Chinese mills that produce steel products.

例如，美国对中国钢铁的关税最终影响到澳大利亚那些一直为生产钢铁的中国工厂提供铁矿石的产业。

Adding to the worries, the Chinese economy has started to slow in recent months, which has hit the prices of key Australian exports like iron ore and copper.

更令人担忧的是，中国经济最近几个月开始放缓，这打击到了铁矿石和铜矿石等澳大利亚关键性出口产品的价格

Australia's central bank governor has warned that "something going wrong in China" is one of the largest economic risks for Australia.

澳大利亚央行行长警告称，“中国出现问题”是澳大利亚最大的经济风险之一。

A weaker Australian dollar could help the country's industries in the coming months, as it makes exports more competitive. But that doesn't work for exports to China, whose currency has also weakened significantly in recent months.

澳元的贬值也许能够在未来的几个月内帮到该国的产业，因为这样可以使出口更具有竞争力。但是这无法帮助到对中国的出口，近几个月来中国的货币也明显的贬值。



2018年澳元和人民币兑美元汇率

The US-China trade clash could result in some benefits for Australia if Beijing's retaliatory tariffs on American goods like fruit and natural gas prompt Chinese importers to switch to Australian suppliers. Dales said there isn't much evidence of this happening yet.

如果北京对美国水果和天然气等商品的报复性关税，促使中国进口商转向澳大利亚供应商，美中贸易冲突可能会给澳大利亚带来一些好处。但是戴尔斯说，目前并没有多少证据表明这种情况正在发生。

Balancing act

平衡政策

The Australian government is in a difficult spot because it can't afford to upset either the United States or China by being seen to take sides in the trade war.

澳大利亚政府正面临着艰难的处境，因为如果在贸易战中被认为（站队在其中一方），它都负担不起对美国或中国的不满。

"They have to try and keep both sides happy," Dales said.

戴尔斯说：“他们想做墙头草”

Australia's exports to China are worth six times as much as what it sells to the United States. But American companies and funds are huge investors in the Australian economy — much more so than their Chinese counterparts.

澳大利亚对中国的出口额是向美国出口额的六倍。但美国公司和基金的投资是澳大利亚经济中的大佬——比他们的中国同行要多得多。

Relations between the Australian and Chinese governments have soured over the past year. The Australian parliament in June passed laws intended to curb foreign interference in its politics. China has accused Australia of unfairly singling it out.

澳大利亚和中国两国间政府关系在过去一年中恶化。澳大利亚议会于六月通过了旨在限制外国干预内政的法律。中国指责澳大利亚对自己双标。
（大概是只允许美国表哥牵手，不让中国金主摸头？）。



A worker welding steel at an engineering company in Qingdao, China.

中国青岛的一家工程公司工人正在焊焊接作业。

Australia provides much of the iron ore that Chinese mills use to produce steel products.

澳大利亚提供了很多铁矿石，使得中国的工坊得以生产钢铁产品。

Reports suggest that Beijing has since targeted Australian exports by holding up shipments of wine and other goods at its ports, which some experts suspect are retaliatory measures.

报告显示，自那以后北京通过在港口停止葡萄酒和其他商品的航运，已经针对性的对澳大利亚出口展开了报复，一些专家怀疑这就是报复措施。



CNNMoney (Hong Kong) First published August 21, 2018: 5:28 AM ET

CNN（香港）2018年8月21日：上午5:28 首次发表