美国银行已经宣布中国股市反弹时刻来临 [美国媒体]

Bank of America Is Already Calling Time on China Stock Rally

美国银行已经宣布中国股市反弹时刻来临



(Bloomberg) -- Don’t get too excited by the steepest rally in Chinese stocks since 2016, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

美国美林银行宣称，不要对中国自2006年来的最大幅度的股市反弹太过于激动。

The Shanghai Composite Index’s two-day gain is a sentiment-driven, short-term rebound that is unlikely to be sustained, said David Cui, BofAML’s head of China equity strategy who predicted China’s 2015 equities crash. Deep-pocketed state funds have been absent from the market, and their participation would be a last resort only if things get worse, he added, without giving specific index targets.

博法姆公司（BofAML）的中国股票策略主管大卫.崔先生说，为期两天的上证综合指数的增长是一种情绪性驱动的短期反弹，本次反弹不太可能维持。崔先生曾经成功预测了中国2015年股市的暴跌。他还补充说，有钱的国家保险基金已经离开股市了，除非情况变得更糟糕，在没有给出具体的指数目标时，他们在市场上的运行将是最后的补救办法。



Singapore-traded futures on the FTSE China A50 Index slipped 0.4 percent in their overnight session as a rally in U.S. equities faded. China’s central bank announced on Monday a plan to support bond financing by private firms, while the Securities Association of China said eleven securities firms agreed to invest a combined 21 billion yuan ($3.02 billion) for an asset management plan designed to ease share-pledge risks of listed companies with sound prospects.

随着美国股市的反弹逐渐消退，新加坡富时中国A50指数期货下跌0.4%，与他们在美国股市衰落时表现出的突然反弹截然相反。中国中央银行周一宣布了一个计划，将支持私营企业债券融资，同时中国证券业协会声称十一家证券公司达成协议共同投资210亿元人民币（相当于30.2亿美元）建立一个资产管理计划，该计划在消除上市公司股票质押风险方面前景广阔。

While Cui called China’s 2015 peak three months before it happened, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has yet to see the 20 percent drop he predicted in July. The gauge is down 1.1 percent since that forecast.

尽管崔在2015年中国股市触顶三个月前就说过，但恒生中国企业指数仍未达到他7月份预测的20%的跌幅。该指数自该预测以来下跌1.1%。

When China’s stock market bubble burst in 2015, the national team bought into index heavyweights such as state-owned banks and energy companies. This time around smaller private enterprises are pressuring the market, but it’s harder for the government to justify buying companies considered riskier with public funds, Cui said.

当2015年中国股市泡沫破灭时，中国国家队买入了国有银行和能源企业等股指权重股。崔说，这一次，规模较小的民营企业正在给市场施加压力，但政府更难找到理由用公共资金收购风险较高的企业。

Private companies are higher risk because collateral requirements by lenders make it more difficult for them to obtain funds, compared with state-owned enterprises that are seen as offering an implicit guarantee of repayment, said Cui.

崔先生还说，相比于被看作是提供隐性担保还款的国有企业来说，私营企业存在更高风险，因为贷款人的担保要求使得它们更难以获得融资。

"Given the high leverage in the stock market and the uncertain outlook, I’m wary of the market dynamics," he said. "Moral suasion only works in the short term."

他还说，“鉴于股票市场高杠杆率和不确定性前景，我担心市场的活力。而且道义劝说只在短期内有效。"

Actually, I've been wondering what has been propping up both the US and Chinese markets. Both auto sales and housing have had marked declines but there's nothing in the news about it. This hold thing has a very bad smell to it. I have gotten out of US stocks, and I'm short on the market indexes. Today there was a warning that while profits look good it's only a temporary effect resulting from companies buying back their stock by using their tax savings. It looks to me like the bubble has formed, and smart money is getting out while they still can book profits.

实际上，我一直想弄明白是什么因素一直在支撑美国和中国市场。双方的汽车和房地产销售已经有了明显下降，但是却没有任何消息报道。这个形势已经很糟糕了。我已经从美国股市离场，并且我对市场指数不够敏感。今天当看起来有好利润的时候，市场警示只有一种短暂的效果，这些效果来自一些公司通过税收节减买回他们的股票。对于我来说，似乎泡沫已经形成了，并且聪明的钱正在离场，而且他们仍然能获利。



Stocks say nothing about the health of a Nation, but about willingness to gamble.

股市不是国家经济健康的晴雨表，但却是赌博意愿的真实映照。

US analysts have no idea about China stock market, the smart way of investing: Long China Stocks, Short US stock !

美国分析师对于中国股市并不清楚，中国股市是聪明的投资方式，长期持有中国股票，短期持有美国股票！

If China's market keeps going down, what you will expect is a global crisis.

如果中国市场保持下滑与低迷，你所期待的会是一场全球性危机。