外媒：假设中国想要什么是很危险的 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：huanglj-审核者：梁佳佳龙------------



Recently The Interpreter published another post warning readers of the dangers of China's intentions and actions in the South China Sea.

最近军事评论家发表了另一篇文章警示读者们中国在中国南海的企图与行动所构成的威胁。

The piece argues that 'the real danger' is that 'China will take its notion of "sovereign rights" in the South China Sea too far and that China's para-military forces will be employed to eject fishing vessels and other units of the littoral nations probably starting with the Philippines'.

文章认为“正真的威胁”是中国把中国在南海的“主权”扩大使得中国使用海上准军事力量去驱逐渔船和其他沿海国家的海上单位，很可能以菲律宾为开始。

The post also implies that it is almost inevitable that China will build 'yet another artificial island' and declare an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea.

文章同时暗示中国很可能在南海“再建立一座人工岛”然后公布整个南海的防空识别区。

The author concludes with a warning that if China gains dominion over the region resentment will fester in other claimant nations and peace will be lost.

作者最后得出一条带警告性的结论：如果中国获得了整个南海的控制权，那么在南海的声明主权的国家对中国的怨恨将会加剧导致区域不和平。

It cautions China to 'finesse its policies for the South China Sea with a sensitivity that has so far been absent from much that it has done'.

文章警告中国要“用妥善的政策小心谨慎的处理南海问题，而这种小心谨慎也是迄今为止中国的做法所缺乏的”。

-------------译者：宝璐-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

It is of course unarguably true that China has among other things been undertaking some fast-paced building activities in the region has declared an ADIZ in the East China Sea and has said that an ADIZ in the South China Sea is not out of the question. It seems to be just clear common sense that what this adds up to is China's desire for regional pre-eminence.

毫无疑问中国在南海进行快速建设，在东海宣布防空识别区，并称在南海设立防空识别区也并非不可能。所以很显然中国在寻求地区霸权。

What else when you look at the facts could it mean?

当你看到这些事实你还能想到别的吗？

-------------译者：huanglj-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Let us for a moment remember that 'common sense' is not universal.

我们要记住所谓“常识”是不普遍适用的。

It's not even necessarily shared between two people from within the same social group let alone across vastly different cultures.

甚至在同一个社会里，不同的人所认知的"常识"也不一定相同，更别说那些在不同文化背景下的人。

Interpretation of what we think we see is not flawless; each individual has their own lens through which meaning is created.

我们对所看到的事物进行的推测并不全面。每个人都有属于他们自己理解事物的角度。

So let us just for a moment pause to ask what hard evidence we have - apart from our own interpretation of what we see - of China's intentions.

所以让我们停下来想想我们有什么关于"中国的企图"的确凿证据--除了我们的主观臆断。

This is of course almost impossible;

这显然是不可能的。

where would one turn for such evidence?

人们在哪里找这些证据呢？

The Global Times says one thing. The spokesperson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs says another.

环球时报说的一回事，外交部发言人说的另一回事； 

The high profile academic something different. The retired army general something else again and what we can gauge of public opinion is a whole other matter.

 知名学者说的不同了，退休将军又说的另一回事。

 -------------译者：维以-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

So all that we can really conclude is that there are different views within China about what China wants to achieve and how best to achieve it and we on the outside cannot really know for sure.

因此我们可以得出的结论是，在中国国内，人们对中国想要实现的目标以及如何实现目标有着不同的看法。我们外人无从得知。

Considerable debate exists around the extent to which actors behave independently or as part of a grand directed strategy. No one in fact really knows. Xi Jinping no doubt has a pretty strong view of what he wants to achieve - the 'China Dream' - but the specifics of that vision are not universally agreed. Yes Xi has consolidated a great deal of power but its debatable whether he has been successful in owning and operating the entire system.

执行者的行动独立或者作为一个宏大定向策略的一部分，在某种程度上存在着相当大的争议。实际上没有人真正知道。习大大对于他想要实现的“中国梦”怀有强大的期待--但是但这一设想的具体细节并未得到普遍认同。是的，习大大巩固了其强大的权力，但是对于他是否已经成功拥有并运行整个系统仍存在着争议。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

It is the very lack of certainty about what China wants that constitutes a large part of the concern over its activities. There have been a lot of calls for China to clarify its intentions.

中国在南海的需求存在很大的不确定性，这也导致了对于其行动的很大担忧。因此也有很多呼吁希望中国澄清自己在南海的真实目的。

Without this clarity though many analysts conclude that determining meaning from what we see is the only reliable method. From what we see interpreted through our own understanding of how international geopolitics works China's activities certainly look like it is trying to push the US out of the region to replace it as the predominant power. If that's the case what does it matter what its motivations are? What difference does it make why it wants to be predominant? Is it relevant if Chinese notions of predominance are different from our own?

由于缺乏中国的澄清，导致很多学者认为只能从我们所看到的中国行为来作为可靠判断。从我们所认为的自我理解和全球地理政治准则来看，中国的行为确实像是在把美国赶出该地区并取代美国成为该地区霸主。如果是这样的话，那么中国的动机是什么还重要吗？中国为什么称霸的理由还重要吗？如果中国的霸主观念和我们的不一样呢，这重要吗？

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

These issues are important when we are weighing up risks and when developing responses if we want those responses to be effective in the long term. There is little point in the long run trying to quash the symptoms without addressing the cause.

这些问题都是非常重要的，尤其是当我们在评估风险和采取行动反应，以及希望这些采取的反应长远有效的话。正如我们想要治愈病症，却不知道病因，很显然是没用的。

As I have argued elsewhere Chinese policy elites see the world and China's role in it differently from Western policymakers. Something as apparently obvious as 'predominance' is actually a very culturally nuanced concept. Can we safely assume it means to the Chinese exactly what it means to us? Even a fleeting study of Chinese language and culture will show how many variations there are to something that we think has a clear meaning.

正如我所提到的中国的政治精英看待世界和认为的中国角色是同西方决策者不一样的。比如，霸权这个词就是一个非常文化性的细致概念。我们能不能保证中国所理解的霸权和我们所认为的霸权是一样的呢？纵使找到一大堆研究中国语言和文化的人，也会将我们所认为的一些确定意义的词翻译成许多的中国词语。（意思就是词语在翻译过中每个人的理解都不一样）。

-------------译者：宝璐-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Chinese Culture 101 teaches that Chinese people don't like to say 'no' to requests - but it doesn't mean there are things they can't or don't want to do. The term 'it's not convenient' doesn't mean 'it's not convenient' it means 'no' but many an over-enthusiastic foreigner has pushed ahead regardless to everyone's frustration and embarrassment. These are of course simple examples but what they indicate is that if there is space for misunderstanding and misinterpretation at the most mundane level there is certainly a significant possibility for misunderstanding and misinterpretation in international geopolitics with far more serious implications.

中国文化教导他们不去对请求说“不”----这并不是说他们不能做或者不做某些事情。 “不方便”这个词的意思不是说“这不方便”，而是说“不”，但是很多过于热情的外国人做得太过了而不顾他人的失意和尴尬。当然这仅仅是简单的例子，但是这个例子表明的是如果在最世俗的生活中都存在误解，那么国际地缘政治上出现误解的可能性也当然是非常高的，而且所产生的影响也是更大的。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

I do not mean to single this article for particular scrutiny; it is just one of many largely from within the defence and security community in Australia and the US that places the onus of responsibility for peace in the region at China's feet. The authors are of course well intentioned: in their line of business being acutely sensitive to and highly anxious about the national interest is their bread and butter. But like all of us their background and position colours their perspective. As such their analyses tend to rest on assumptions of what China is trying to achieve and why or on a conviction that motivations don't actually matter when the reality is so clear. But the truth is most of them like the rest of us actually do not know.

我并不是意味着这篇文章有什么特别值得留意的地方。美国和澳洲国防和安全圈子里面的人认为中国应该承担起该地区的和平责任，这篇文章不过是众多文章中的一篇而已。这些作者的意图很明显：这些作者的生计正依赖于对国家利益的高度敏感和极度焦虑上。但是像我们一样，他们的背景和立场决定了他们的想法。因此他们倾向于假设中国想要实现什么目标以及为什么，或者说他们确信既然现实已经如此清晰那么动机根本就不重要了。但事实是他们中的大部分和我们一样都不清楚。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

In fact 'the real danger' is that we continue to allow discussion about China's regional behaviour and aspirations to be dominated by views from only one field based on a shared perspective in a circular reiteration of a particular set of assumptions until they become solidified as unquestionable 'truths'.

事实上，真正的危险是我们依然不断讨论关于中国在该地区的行为和目的，然而这种讨论仅仅是的循环的观点和假设，直到这种假设变为无可置疑的事实。

If (and most analysts could probably agree on this) the current period is becoming increasingly tense it is paramount that we ensure that we are seeing the picture in all its nuance and not just in black and white.

如果目前的局势正在变得紧张（大部分学者都会同意这种观点），那么重要的是我们要细致入微的看清整个局势，而不是仅仅看到黑与白。


-------------译者：世界上唯一的掌纹-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

The Dead Rabbits R26; a month ago
阅读这个长篇大论的为了妥协的差劲借口真是浪费时间。啰嗦。
 
Dsakei  The Dead Rabbits R26; a month ago
如果这被写到纸上，我们就能够说这是浪费笔墨了。
 
TiredOfTrolls R26; a month ago
按照他们的行为方式我们可以想出中国想要什么... 因为他们已经拒绝通过至少一架飞机和另一艘船进入国际水域... 我们可以肯定他们想拥有南海
 
Jack Kalpakian  TiredOfTrolls R26; a month ago
绝对正确，所以我们应该做些什么？

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

paoburen R26; a month ago
I watch quite a bit of Chinese TV Media. There is nothing nuanced about how this topic is presented: The experts (either 2 or 3 on the panel) all agree that the South Sea has been China's for thousands of years the whole world knows it but those pesky American-devils and their running dogs (Philippines Japan nowadays Vietnam too) all are just jealous of China's rejuvenation to its rightful spot as the hegemon of Asia.

我看了许多中国的电视节目。根本就没有作者所说的那么样多的理解。在中国的电视节目上，两个或者三个专家都一致认为南海自古以来都是中国领土，全世界都是知道多事的美国人和他的走狗（菲律宾和日本，现在又有越南）都很嫉妒中国的崛起和成为亚洲的盟主。

There is nothing nuanced about it. That is on CCTV News at least once a week in an hour format. All through the show images of naval boats missiles airplanes cost guard and "regular" fishing boats are shown. It excites the crowd seeing the raw power of the Chinese in China's Pond.

所以中国媒体看待这个问题没有什么微妙不微妙的。这是中央台每周都会播放一次的节目，每次一小时。节目过程中都在展示海军舰艇，导弹，飞机，海岸警卫队以及渔船的照片。中国观众看到中国的军力出现在中国海里，于是感到热血沸腾。

I do agree with this author that analysts and others need to try to see other perspectives especially when dealing with a non-western country because of the vast chasm in cultures but the absolutism of Chinese Media inside the Mainland results in there not even being a marginal attempt in Mandarin-language to be subtle nuanced or understanding about this issue. In China the only way to discuss this issue is in violent aggressive and war-like tones.

我非常同意作者提到的，学者和其他人应该试着从其他方面来观察对方，尤其是当同非西方国家打交道时，因为文化间有很大的不同。但是在大陆，由于媒体受到控制，所以很少有节目从不同的角度来讨论这个议题。在中国，他们只采用暴力好斗的侵略性的口吻来讨论这个议题。

To "meet halfway" is a waste of time because the line in the sand is so absurdly drawn in the first place.

“双方妥协”的办法简直是浪费时间，因为从一开始这条中间线就是乱划的。

Also from a cultural perspective if you aren't aggressive in China you are seen as "weak" whether in business deals or trying to get on a bus and people WILL take advantage of you. I would wager in a land-sea-sovereignty dispute this same cultural truth holds.

从文化方面来说，在中国如果你不主动进攻就会被认为是弱小的，尤其是在商业交易，或者是在上公交的时候，人们都会占你便宜。所以我敢打赌，在陆海主权争议上，中国人也会采用这样的文化态度。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Forrest Higgs  paoburen R26; a month ago
"The experts (either 2 or 3 on the panel) all agree that the South Sea has been China's for thousands of years"

专家都同意自古南海就是中国的？

Really? Which thousands of years are you talking about exactly? European ships started showing up in the late 15th and 16th centuries and have pretty much owned the China seas ever since only sharing dominance with the Japanese navy towards the end of the 19th century. About the only time the Chinese had a credible military presence in the China seas was in the time of the Yongle Emperor during the late 14th and early 15th centuries. After he died the fleets were scrapped.

你不是开玩笑吧，你说的自古指的是什么时期？欧洲舰队在15、16世纪时出现在南海，并且占据南海，只有在19世纪时同日本海军共同占据了南海。中国军事力量只有在永乐皇帝的时候出现在南海过，那是14世纪末，15世纪出的事了。自从永乐皇帝死后，中国舰队就废了。

Hell they didn't even control Taiwan till after holdout Ming loyalists fleeing the Manchu takeover of China took it away from the Dutch in 1662. They lost it to the Japanese in 1895 and didn't get it back again till 1945 then lost it again after Nationalist holdouts retreated there in 1949. What the PRC claims and what it honestly has claim to are two vastly different things.

更可笑的是，在满洲人控制中国的时候，那些忠于明朝的分子逃亡台湾并从荷兰手中夺取了台湾，再次之前中国就没控制过台湾。他们在1895年的时候吧台湾割让给日本，直到1945年才收复台湾，然后在1949年中国国民党败退台湾的时候又丢失了台湾。中国所声称的和真实应该声称的根本就是两码事好嘛。

There is no credible historical basis for a Chinese claim to the China seas never mind their ridiculous 9 dashes map. The only claim they have is their growing navy.

中国声称所谓南海根本就没有依据，更不要说可笑的9段线了。他们唯一声称的就是他们正在壮大的海军。（译者：哈哈，那有怎么样）。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

paoburen  Forrest Higgs R26; a month ago
I was talking about experts on Chinese State-Media. Sorry if I wasn't clear.
:)

对不起啊，其实我说的是中国媒体上的专家，估计没说清。
 
boonteetan R26; a month ago
Not only dangerous it is utterly unethical to make wild assumptions about what China wants or for that matter any other nation. However journalists are fond of sensationalizing often without solid substantiation. What else to say.

胡乱的猜测中国以及其他国家的目的，这不仅是危险的也是不道德的。然而媒体就是好这口啊，虽然没有真凭实据。随他们怎么说啦。
 
Tom Aaron R26; a month ago
What does the USA want? China has 4 times the population...4 times as many views as the we do.

美国想要啥呢？中国人口比美国多四倍啊，那岂不是多了四倍的观点。

Trump wants? Obama wants?

川普想要啥？奥巴马想要啥？

There is no universal Chinese goal anymore than there is an American one.

美国的目标是啥都没有通用的标准，更不用说中国了。

China is a juggernaut. It is going to dominate the World economy science technology while the USA twiddles its thumbs mired in political correctness.

中国是个大国，而且正在主导全球的经济与科技技术，然而美国却陷入其政治正确否与的泥潭中。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Sasquach Footly  Tom Aaron R26; a month ago
The same was said of Japan a few decades ago. Currency manipulation and debt spending will only take you so far. Pushing your neighbors only encourages them to arm up and push back. Unless China is prepared to go to war which would close many trade markets to them the next day how will they enfore their desires?

 我们之前也这样说过日本啊。货币操纵和债务支出只能保证你走这么远。推开你的邻居只会让他们武装自己然后再回来反推你。除非中国准备发动战争，这会导致许多国家的市场关闭同中国的贸易，这样的话中国怎么实现自己的中国梦？
 
USofA R26; a month ago
This author is either dumb or blind. Or both. Or did the CCP start paying your for your propaganda?

作者要么是聋了，要么是瞎了，或者又聋又瞎。是不是中国共产党给他宣传费了？

Commonsense is universal. Just like a 2 year old will cry when someone takes their toy. That same 2 year old will tell you China is stealing other kids toys (islands) that dont belong to them.

常识具有普遍性。正如你把一个两岁小孩的玩具拿走的话，他肯定会哭的。那个两岁的小孩会告诉你中国正在偷其他小孩的玩具（海岛），这些玩具并不属于中国。

Read your history "author". China's OWN ANCIENT maps never Show the SCS as theirs. http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/...

作者你读读历史书吧，中国自己的古代地图从没有显示南海是他们的。链接如下http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/... （译者：你奶奶个腿，我倒要看看）。

-------------译者：梁佳佳龙-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Temujin R26; a month ago
China this and China that...well I have 2 letter words for china...F.C.!

 中国这中国那的，我对中国就俩字，我操
 
andrewp111 R26; a month ago
The language of power and dominance is universal - in all peoples and cultures. We don't need fools who make excuses for China.

权力和主宰的语言具有普遍性，不论何种民族和文化。我们不需要那些笨蛋为中国找借口。
 
General_Chaos R26; a month ago
One does not need to be able to glean the Chinese soul to see the challenge. China is a revisionist power trying to change the boundaries of the spheres of influence in the seas surrounding it. Revisionism is dangerous because it seeks to shift influence in a region from one country to another. The means by which China is attempting this are provocative. It is not rocket science and you do not need to be a sociologist to understand it. Knowing the nuances of the definition of "predominant" is irrelevant when one is building islands with which to project military force plopping down oil wells in contest waters and using naval power to push other countries personnell off reefs.

其实就没必要看透中国灵魂来看清挑战，中国是一个修正主义，目前正在试图改变他周边海域的势力范围和影响力。修正主义是危险的，因为它试图将地区影响力从一个国家转移到另一个国家。这就意味着中国的目的就是挑战。这不是火箭技术，你也没必要成为一个社会学家理解这玩意。知道霸权这个词的更多意义也没啥用，尤其是当中国正在通过建设岛屿来投放军事力量在争议海域进行石油开采，运用海军力量将其他国家驱赶出这些岛屿。

-------------译者：宝璐-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Lucius_Severus_Pertinax R26; a month ago
If you discover a stranger rummaging through your garage do you give so much as a worn-out second-hand damn about WHY he is doing it?
And are you going to accept his protestations that "it is inconvenient" when you demand that he gets the hell out?

  如果你发现有一个陌生人在你的车库翻查，你会多心一个捡破烂的他到底要干啥？当你命令他滚出去的时候，你也会接受他“这不方便”的抗议么？
 
longlance R26; a month ago
USA wants to bully pester & provoke China because the only export USA has is war and more war.

美国想要欺凌、烦扰和挑衅中国，因为美国所能出口的就是战争和更多的战争。