如果特朗普真的拒绝给中国的理工科留学生更新签证，那中美两国哪边损失更大？ [美国媒体]

Trump reportedly considered banning Chinese student visas to keep out spies

据报道，特朗普为了把间谍拒之门外，考虑拒绝批准中国留学生的签证。

The Trump administration debated banning visas for Chinese nationals to come and study at US universities for fear of spying, the Financial Times has reported.

金融时报报道，出于对间谍行为的担忧，特朗普政府曾讨论禁止中国籍人士前往美国大学学习。



Under Trump the US has confronted China like never before, and the FT's report comes at a time of record high military tensions between the great powers.

在特朗普治下，美国以前所未有的强硬姿态与中国进行对峙，金融时报这篇报道的问世，正值两大国之间的军事紧张达到了创纪录的高度。

Trump's recent National Security Strategy explicitly called for the kind of review reportedly put forth by Miller.

据报道，特朗普最近明确要求进行那种审查的国家安全战略，正是Miller提出的。

The strategy said it would "review visa procedures to reduce economic theft by non-traditional intelligence collectors" while reuating how the US provides access to foreign students in science fields, which have national security implications.

这份战略称：它会“重新审查签证的手续，以降低非传统情报收集者实施的经济盗窃行为”，同时对美国采用何种方式让外国学生进入具有国家安全意义的科学领域，进行重新评估。

Chinese students as spies?

把中国学生当作间谍看待？



The Institute of International Education found that US universities in 2015-16 admitted nearly 329,000 Chinese students. These students, who live and spend money in the US, represent one of the few trade surpluses the US enjoys over China in the services sector, while China dominates trading of goods.

国际教育协会发现，2015-16年间，美国大学接纳了32.9万名中国学生。这些学生，在美国生活消费，而所在的服务领域是美国对华存在贸易盈余的少数领域之一，而中国在商品贸易中则占支配地位。

"We do not open investigations based on race, or ethnicity, or national origin," Wray later told NBC News. "But when we open investigations into economic espionage, time and time again, they keep leading back to China."

“我们并没有根据种族、民族或者原本的国籍，进行公开的调查，”Wray稍后告诉NBC新闻。“但是当我们对经济间谍行为进行公开调查时，这些案件一次又一次的指向中国。”

Downward spiral of US-China relations

美中关系螺旋式下降

The US and China have increasingly began butting heads in less of a rhetorical sense, and more in their military relations.

美国和中国的冲突越来越少的出现在外交辞令方面，而在军事关系中则愈演愈烈。

Beijing protests every time a US or international warship transits the South China Sea, a key waterway in the Pacific that China has laid unilateral claim to, in violation of international law.

每次美国或者外国军舰通过南中国海，中国都会提出抗议，这是太平洋的关键水道，而中国对它提出了单边的声索，违反了国际法。



In May, the US banned all Chinese-made smartphones from the Pentagon, saying devices from Huawei and ZTE "may pose an unacceptable risk to department's personnel, information and mission."

五月，美国称华为和中兴生产的设备“或许会对该部门的员工、信息和任务产生不可接受的风险”，从而禁止五角大楼使用中国制造的所有智能手机。

Yu-Hsing Chen
The US would clearly lose in the short run and most likely the longer run as well, in catastrophic fashion.
In the short run, students coming to the US is probably the single most lucrative US export to China ( and it's not counted in the trade balance ) , so killing that while you're supposed grievance on the surface is trade deficit means either 1. The US is a complete idiot or 2. The entire trade imbalance was a total farce.
In the longer run, China might suffer from less students getting great education ( though it's unlikely other states follow suite.) But more importantly there's not a world where this can pass without a domino effect of an all out war on Chinese in the US. The degree of which may be debatable but the talk of a China exclusion act 2.0 is already out there and given modern context relative to late 19th century how much further could an total expulsion or mass incarceration be? And long before we get to that point white extremist would be gunning down Asian looking folks in the street and live streaming it.
Any semblance of that happening and it's impossible for the US to argue this is for some sort of idealism or rule and order, the morale highground would be completely lost and it would be many decades before they can remotely comeback.
If I'm Xi, my entire hope is that the pendulum swing to the other extreme and causes disaster so grave the US would simply lose to itself, this sort of ban is almost exactly what I'd want, normally you'd think there's no way the US would be this crazy but in the era of Trump who knows.

美国明显会出现短期损失，出现长期损失的可能性也很大，这些损失将是灾难性的。
短期而言，前往美国的学生对中国来说，可能是唯一一种让美国最为获益的出口品（而且没有计算在贸易平衡之内），所以在贸易逆差让美国愤愤不平的情况下，做这种事意或者味着美国是个彻头彻尾的笨蛋，或者意味着贸易不平衡的整个说法就是一出闹剧。



Ben Smith, Lived in China for 6 months; learning Chinese; follow the politics
The Communist Party would win because fewer Chinese would learn about the American way of life.
America will lose because they will have fewer students paying top dollars to study at universities. They’ll get less tech talent coming in from China to build the economy.
The Chinese people will lose because there would be less talent coming back to China to improve China’s economy.
Other Western countries will win because they’ll educate some of the Chinese students instead.

GCD会是赢家，因为学习美国人的生活方式的人会变少。
美国会输掉，因为为了在美国大学学习，而花最多的钱的学生会变少。从中国前往美国，帮助建设经济的人才也会变少。
其他西方国家会是赢家，因为他们可以得到其中一些中国学生。

Andy Liu
If I were Xi, I would be laughing my ass off if this really happened.
It for sure will cause some serious troubles for students already there. But There is absolutely no doubts that the most and the best of Chinese talents are all in USA, China would be so happy to bring those talents back without forcing them.
My guess is at least top 10% graduates of Chinese best universities are mostly in USA.

如果我是中国，真的出现这种事，我会笑掉大牙的。
当然它会给已经身在那里的学生造成一些严重的麻烦。但是毫无疑问，大多数最杰出的中国人才现在都身在美国，如果不用强迫就能让那些人才回国，中国会很高兴。
我估计，中国最好的大学前10%的毕业生大多数都在美国。

Tom Martin, lives in The United States of America (1969-present)
My guess would be that most of these students would rather transfer to universities in Europe or Canada or Australia rather than study in China. They did not want to study in China, that is why they went to study in American universities.

我猜测，大多数那些学生宁愿转学到欧洲、加拿大或者澳大利亚的学校，也不愿在中国学习。他们不想在中国学习，这就是为什么他们去了美国大学。



Richard Li, Knows a thing or two about China
I’ll tell you what will happen if US is stupid enough to let this happen.
The Chinese STEM students will go to Australia, UK, and Europe to study.
US labs will lose half of its grunts, and talents.
US Universities will lobby for more funding otherwise raise their fee dramatically.
US will lose out both long term and short term. There’s no win in any case.
It seems to be the the only thing US doing these days is keep shooting itself on its foot.
Truly the beginning of the end of the once All-Mighty.

我来告诉你，如果美国愚蠢到让这件事发生，会发生什么事。
中国的STEM学生会去澳大利亚、英国和欧洲求学。
美国的实验室会失去一半的苦力和人才。
美国大学会进行游说，要求更多资金，或者大幅提高他们的学费。
美国会遭受短期和长期损失。在任何情况下都没有赢的可能。
美国最近做的唯一一件是，似乎就是搬起石头砸自己的脚。
曾经无比强大的美国真的正在开始走向终结。

Ameya Deshmukh, NTSE Scholar 2018
Based on the sheer number of world class universities and an abundant population of highly skilled graduates in China, much more in number than the U.S., it would be the good ol' US of A losing out.

根据中国的世界级大学的绝对数量，以及大量的高技能毕业生，远远超过美国的数字，那将是一件好事，美国将一败涂地。



Hongda Jiang
This would hurt the US FAR MORE than it would the PRC, for the ability to attract Chinese STEM students is one of the few & declining strategic advantages that America maintains over the PRC.
US STEM institutions brain-drains China to America’s advantage. Since so many Chinese students stay & work in the US after finishing their education in the US, they represent a significant brain drain to the PRC & in favor of the US. Therefore, the flow of Chinese students to the US can - to some degree - be viewed as a zero-sum human capital competition that currently favors the US at China’s expense. Instead of trying to ban Chinese STEM students, SMART US policy would be trying to seek ways to bring in & retain MORE Chinese STEM students (& from other countries), especially as employment opportunities improve inside China, & ever more students favor returning to China. But no chance this will happen under the current regime in the US.
Chinese students & educational institutions are a cash cow for US universities. They mostly pay full, out-of-state tuition without any student aid or scholarships (since those are usually reserved for US citizens), since they usually don’t qualify for any form of aid (other than private student loans) as international students. Moreover, Chinese universities often have collaborative partnerships with US counterparts, & help fund US academic R&D. University of Michigan alone benefits from millions of dollars in joint research funding with Chinese counterparts.
A “Chinese ban” cannot prevent the flow of knowledge. Chinese students can still go to other advanced, developed countries (Germany, UK, Australia, Japan, etc.) for education. Even though their universities are not as globally reputable as US counterparts, they’re comparable in quality. Besides, cutting edge research doesn’t really occur until the grad & PhD levels, so going to say - Germany instead of the US - wouldn’t be a huge loss for the Chinese students at an undergrad level (the level at which most Chinese students study in the US). Furthermore, those western educational institutions often collaborate with US universities anyway, so again - trying to prevent the flow of academic knowledge from US universities to Chinese students is a largely futile cause.
A “Chinese ban” would be a great propaganda victory for China. A “Chinese ban”, just like a “Muslim ban”, would portray the US as a xenophobic & closed country that fears the flow of people & ideas - a portrait that the US often paints of other countries that it designates as enemies (e.g. Russia, China, Iran, etc.). Such a ban would show the world that the US is just as closed & xenophobic as it portrays other countries to be. In fact, just to rub salt in America’s would-be self-inflicted wound, China would most likely respond by attracting more US students to study in China, just to further undermine America’s image abroad, & among America’s own youth.
In short, any US ban on Chinese STEM students would be a GREAT gift to Beijing. Not only would it instantly mitigate China’s brain drain, it would also yield massive propaganda value for China across the globe, including within America’s own higher education institutions & among American educated youth. It’s actually quite unfortunate for China that the Trump regime hasn’t quite reached such an epic level of retardation yet.

这件事对美国的伤害远远超过中国，这是因为吸引中国STEM（科学、技术、工程、数学）学生在美国居留工作的能力，是美国对中国仅存的战略优势之一，这些战略优势为数不多，且日益消退。
美国的STEM机构帮助美国从中国吸收人才，这是美国的优势。因为结束在美国的学业之后，会有很多中国学生留在美国工作生活，对中国而言，他们代表着大量的人才流失，有利于美国。所以，在某种程度上，中国学生流向美国可以被视为一种零和的人力资本竞争，而目前美国在这种竞争中占据优势，付出代价的则是中国。聪明的美国政策，不是禁止中国的STEM学生，而是试图想办法引进并留下更多的中国（以及其他国家）的STEM学生，尤其是当中国国内就业机会正在向好，越来越多的中国学生更乐意回到中国的情况下，更应该这么做。但是美国当前的政权不可能这样做。



简而言之，美国对中国STEM学生的任何禁令，都将是给北京的一份大礼。不仅可以大幅缓解中国的人才外流，也可以对中国产生庞大的全球政治宣传价值，包括美国本身的高等教育机构及美国知识青年之间。特朗普当局的弱智没有发展到如此的高度，对中国而言，实际上一种相当大的不幸。