如果沙特阿拉伯在土耳其谋杀了一位记者，这意味着什么？ [美国媒体]

What it means if Saudi Arabia murdered a journalist in Turkey

如果沙特阿拉伯在土耳其谋杀了一位记者，这意味着什么？



Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, is starting to look like an old-fashioned despot

沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼开始变得像一个老派暴君

IT HAS been over a week since Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi journalist and government critic, walked into the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to get paperwork for a marriage. No one has seen him since. Turkish officials say that he was killed by a team of Saudi assassins杀手/刺客, who dismembered his body, on orders from the top of the royal court. The Saudis retort that Mr Khashoggi left the building of his own accord. If so, when? Are there witnesses or written records? Why is there no security-camera footage? And why did 15 Saudis fly in on private jets just before he disappeared, and leave shortly after? The Saudis must provide answers, or the world will assume the worst.

一个多星期前，着名沙特记者、政府批评人士贾马尔·哈霍吉走进沙特驻伊斯坦布尔大使馆领取结婚证。自此再也没人见过他。土耳其官员表示，他被一队沙特皇室指派的杀手杀害并被肢解。沙特方面辩解称，哈霍吉先生当时已经离开了大使馆。如果是这样的话，他是何时被杀的呢？有目击者或书面记录吗？为什么没有安保摄像记录呢？为什么在他消失前不久乘坐私人飞机到伊斯坦布尔，又在他被害后不久乘坐飞机离开？沙特必须给出答案，否则全世界都会做出最坏的假设。

If it transpires that Mr Khashoggi has been killed, whether deliberately or in a botched kidnapping, it will strengthen the sense that Muhammad bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince and de facto ruler, is more of a rogue than a reformer. He has locked up thousands of activists. He detained a sitting prime minister of Lebanon, Saad Hariri, for two weeks in November. His long arm has already reached abroad. In March a women’s-rights campaigner, Loujain al-Hathloul, was detained in Abu Dhabi, whisked to Saudi Arabia and, later, thrown in jail. In September a Saudi satirist讽刺作家 based in London claimed that he was beaten by goons暴徒 who had been sent from Saudi Arabia.

无论是蓄意谋杀还是拙劣的绑架，一旦证实哈霍吉先生被杀害，这无疑会强化这样一种认知，即沙特王储，沙特的实际统治者穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼更像是个无赖而非改革者。与其说是个改革者，不如说是个无赖。他关押了数千名积极分子，11月扣留了现任黎巴嫩总理萨阿德·哈里里两个星期。他的手甚至伸到了国外。今年3月，女权活动家 Loujain al-Hathloul在阿布扎比被拘留，并被迅速送往沙特阿拉伯，随后被关进监狱。今年九月，身处伦敦的沙特讽刺作家称，他被来自沙特的暴徒殴打。

Murdering a critic on foreign soil would be an escalation of a dismal trend. Unlike past Saudi royals, who allowed some debate and often sought to mediate between competing interests, Prince Muhammad rules as if only he has the answers. His brutish handling of even mild critics is overshadowing more admirable policies, which include curbing the religious police, letting women drive and encouraging them to work. As his regime starts to resemble an Arab nationalist dictatorship—socially liberal but centralised, paranoid and built on fear—his promise of a new, tolerant Saudi Arabia is receding.

在外国领土上谋杀一名批评家加剧了低迷情绪。以前的沙特王室成员允许一些辩论的存在，并经常寻求在相互竞争的利益群体间斡旋，而穆罕默德王储统治国家似乎只有他自己知道答案。他对待温和的批评的粗暴手段让沙特一些令人钦佩的政策（如遏制宗教警察，允许妇女开车并鼓励她们工作）蒙上阴影。随着他的政权向阿拉伯民族主义独裁统治方向发展——社会自由但权利集中，偏执但弥漫恐惧——他作出的建立一个宽容的新沙特的承诺正在消退。

Prince Muhammad’s autocratic独裁的 tendencies have economic consequences, too. He aims, ambitiously, to wean the kingdom off oil. But investors are warned off by the capricious way he takes decisions. Last year he locked up and seized assets from hundreds of businessmen, officials and princes in an “anti-corruption” drive that lacked even a hint of due process. His effort to spur the private sector is, oddly, top-down自上而下的. The planned stock market listing of part of Aramco, the state oil giant, suffered from Prince Muhammad’s micromanagement微观管理 and has been postponed indefinitely. Other grandiose projects, such as NEOM, a futuristic city staffed by robots, seem ill-considered. But advisers dare not challenge the prince.

穆罕默德王储的独裁倾向也带来了经济后果。他雄心勃勃地想要使王室摆脱对石油的依赖。但是他反复无常的决策方式让投资者望而却步。去年，他在一场“反腐败”运动中关押了数千名商人、官员和王子并没收了他们的财产，但这场运动却没有经过任何正当程序。奇怪的是，他刺激私营部门的措施是自上而下进行的。沙特石油巨头阿美石油公司的股票上市计划受到了王储的微观管理的影响并被无限期延迟。其他的宏大计划，如建造一个由机器人进行服务的未来城市NEOM，似乎考虑不周。但顾问不敢质疑王储的决定。

In countries like America, where Mr Khashoggi lived, the instinct has been to offer the prince weapons and support. Instead, the prince’s allies should make clear that he does not have a blank cheque—and that his rule would benefit from more openness. Mr Khashoggi, a former government adviser, often said that his criticism of the Saudi regime was sincerity (nasiha), or friendly counsel. He did not consider himself a dissident and disliked the idea of regime change. “It’s just ridiculous,” he told The Economist in July. “I believe in the system—I just want a reformed system.” The Saudi regime should listen to its critics, not silence them.

卡舒吉居住的美国等国家本能地向王子提供武器和支持。相反，王储的盟友们应该明确的是，他没有一张空头支票，而他的通知将受益于更大的开放。卡舒吉曾担任政府顾问，他经常表示他对政府的批评是真诚的、友善的。他从不认为自己是异见人士，也不喜欢政权更迭的想法。7月，他在接受《经济学人》采访时表示，“这太荒谬了，我相信这个政体——我只是希望进行改革。”沙特政权应该听取批评者的意见，而不是封他们的嘴。