朝鲜为了经济发展放弃核武器 [美国媒体]

Could North Korea be sincere?

朝鲜为了经济发展放弃核武器

The nuclear negotiations may end up as usual, but it is tantalising to think of other possibilities

核谈判可能会像以前一样不了了之，但是考虑一下其它可能性还是可以的

LAST month Moon Jae-in, erstwhile puppet of American imperialists, stood in the May Day stadium in Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, and promised a new era of shared prosperity as 150,000 North Koreans cheered. The next day he and Kim Jong Un, North Korea’s dictator, climbed (well, were driven) to the top of MountPaektu, the Korean peninsula’s sacred peak, where they put together the tips of their thumbs and index fingers to form a heart-shape in a gesture more commonly used by K-pop stars to show appreciation for their fans.

上个月，美国曾经的傀儡文在寅站到了朝鲜首都平壤的五一体育场中，在15万朝鲜群众的欢呼声中，承诺将开启一个共同繁荣的新时代。次日，他和朝鲜领导人一同登上了（好吧，其实是乘缆车）朝鲜半岛的圣山白头山的山顶，在此他们用拇指和食指拼成一个心形（韩国音乐流行明星通常用这个手势向粉丝表达爱意）。

This week South and North Korean soldiers began clearing mines along their heavily fortified border. America’s secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, was about to fly to Pyongyang to arrange a second summit meeting between President Donald Trump and Mr Kim, to follow the television spectacular starring the two leaders in Singapore in June. Meanwhile, Mr Kim’s fourth get-together with Mr Moon is planned for later this year in Seoul, the South Korean capital.

本周，朝鲜和韩国的士兵开始清理戒备森严的边境线上的地雷。美国国务卿迈克尔·彭斯将要前往平壤安排美国总统特朗普与金正恩之间的第二次首脑会议，此前，两国领导人于今年六月在新加坡举行了盛大的电视会议。与此同时，金正恩和文在寅的第四次会晤定于今年晚些时候在韩国首都首尔举行。

It is all so unprecedented that it is surreal. A year ago Mr Kim was firing missiles and conducting an underground nuclear test, his country’s sixth. Mr Trump promised “fire and fury” against “Little Rocket Man”. Now he jokes that he “fell in love” with Mr Kim in Singapore and says that one year on is “a much different time”.

这一切都是前所未有的，是超现实主义的。一年前，金正恩正在发射导弹，进行朝鲜的第六次地下核试验。特朗普承诺要让“火箭人（金正恩）”感受到“火与怒”。如今，他揶揄道，他在新加坡“爱上了”金正恩，并且表示一年过去，情况已经大不一样。

This week in Seoul Banyan pinched himself when he saw a huge photograph of the gathering on Mount Paektu hanging across the façade of City Hall, a beaming Mr Moon holding Mr Kim’s hand high.

本周，Banyan在首尔看到市政厅外悬挂的大幅相聚白头山的照片时，不由地掐了自己一下，照片上笑容满面的文在寅高举金正恩的手。

Yet the odds of a dramatic “peace declaration” are rising. Mr Trump seems to see such a step as a means to a Nobel peace prize. Mr Moon has spent much of his political career pursuing a peace deal with the North. And Mr Kim could present one to his citizens as an American climbdown.

然而，戏剧性的“和平宣言”发生的可能性正在增加。特朗普似乎将此举视为获得诺贝尔和平奖的一种手段。文在寅在自己的政治生涯中一直在寻求与朝鲜达成和平协议。并且金正恩可以借此向其国民展示美国的退让。

This is alarming to hawks on North Korea. No security guarantees will be enough for Mr Kim to give up his nukes, they say. Instead, the North will try to shake down the outside world for concessions, as it has done countless times.Mr Kim, they point out, is already dragging his feet over the commitment he made in Singapore to disarm, having failed to provide any inventory of his nuclear capabilities. That fits the pattern of alternating bonhomie and recalcitrance established by his father.

这对美国在朝鲜问题上的鹰派人物们来说是个警告。他们表示，没有任何安全承诺能够让金正恩放弃核武器。相反，朝鲜将试图勒索其他国家换取他们进一步的让步，这种把戏朝鲜已经耍了无数次。这符合他父亲建立的既友好又顽固的模式。

Yet Mr Kim’s summit diplomacy this year (including three meetings with President Xi Jinping of China) has reshaped the political dynamics of north-east Asia. No one, certainly not the sceptics, predicted the sudden change of tone. So it is worth considering whether they might be wrong about Mr Kim’s ultimate intentions, too.

然而，今年金正恩的“峰会外交”已经改变了东北亚的政治动态。没有人（当然包括持怀疑态度的人）预测到了这一突然转变，所以值得考虑的是，他们对于金正恩真正意图的猜测是否也是错的。

Could the dictator really be thinking of giving up nukes in favour of economic development? They cost a fortune. He might be able to trade them for an American commitment to withdraw its forces from the South. After all, Mr Trump hates keeping troops there. Meanwhile, Mr Moon’s dream of a Korean confederation, with no bad word said about the gulags, would suit Mr Kim very well.

金正恩真的在考虑为了经济发展而放弃核武器吗？他们花了一大笔钱。他也许能够以此换取美国从韩国撤军的承诺。毕竟，特朗普也讨厌在韩国驻军。与此同时，文在寅建立朝鲜联盟的梦想以及对劳改营没有指手画脚的行为很合金正恩的口味。

It is only a step from there to a neutral Korean peninsula, an old idea strategists are reviving. China fears North Korea falling into the American orbit; America would hate South Korea to fall into the Chinese one. Meanwhile, paranoid Koreans will always be suspicious of Japan’s designs on the peninsula. Suddenly the Koreas as the Switzerland of the East becomes a tempting notion. It may also be a forlorn one: how could neutrality be guaranteed in an era of growing rivalry between America and China?

实现一个中立的朝鲜半岛只需要一步，一个古老的想法战略家正在崛起。中国担心朝鲜会成为美国的势力范围；美国则极其不愿朝鲜成为中国的势力范围。与此同时，偏执的韩国人一直对日本在朝鲜半岛的企图持怀疑态度。突然，让朝鲜成为东方瑞士的概念很吸引人。这也可能是一个令人绝望的问题：在中美竞争日益激烈的时代如何保持中立呢？

There is another scenario. For all that Mr Kim’s diplomatic dance increases his security in the short run, it could well undermine it in the end. Flirting with many partners at once can only get harder. The endless foreign summits, meanwhile, will give ordinary North Koreans a better sense of the vastly greater well-being of people in the South, and of their own country’s brutal contradictions. Mr Kim may be looking strong and shrewd now, but great peril may lie in store.

还有另外一种设想。尽管金正恩的外交之舞在短时内提高了其自身的安全，但最终可能会危害他的安全。同时与多个国家领导人斡旋只会越来越困难。与此同时，无休止的外交峰会将会使普通的朝鲜民众更好地感受到了朝鲜人民的福利，更加看透本国的残酷矛盾。也许现在的金正恩可能看起来强大而精明，但巨大的危险就在眼前。

Which of these scenarios seems the likeliest? In raising nuclear tensions last year and in embracing his summitry in 2018, Mr Kim has proved himself a gambler. But is he overplaying his hand? Outsiders have consistently underestimated the Kims, risk-takers all. But bear in mind that no one has ever lost money betting that they will sell the same big bag of nothing again and again.

哪种设想看起来最有可能发生呢？通过去年加剧核紧张局势并在2018年召开峰会，金正恩已经证明他自己是个赌徒。但是他是不是玩过火了呢？外界一直低估了金氏家族，他们都是冒险家。