特朗普的贸易战对美国经济的伤害恐怕远大于中国经济 [美国媒体]

Washington and Beijing have placed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of each other's goods.
The results have been more negative for the US than for China, according to a recent HSBC research note.

华盛顿和北京已就彼此间价值数千亿美元的商品加征关税。汇丰银行（HSBC）最近的一份研究报告显示，比起中国，这对美国的负面影响更大。

Americans have felt relatively more pain from President Donald Trump's trade war than Chinese consumers and businesses, according to analysts at HSBC.
Studies of trade-war impacts by the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank found the "likely impact on the US economy to be significantly more negative than on China," the analysts Janet Henry and James Pomeroy said in a research note. "Whereas China has been benefiting from strong import demand in most of its other trading partners except for the US (and Germany, due to cars)," they said, "the US has not."

汇丰银行（HSBC）分析师称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战把更大的痛苦带给了美国人，而非中国消费者和企业。
分析师珍妮特·亨利（Janet Henry）和詹姆士·波默罗伊（James Pomeroy）在一份研究报告中指出，国际货币基金组织（IMF）和欧洲央行（ECB）对贸易战的影响研究发现：“（贸易战）对美国经济的影响可能要比对中国的影响严重得多。中国近期一直受益于除美国（及德国，由于汽车的关系）以外的其他大多数贸易伙伴强劲的进口需求，而类似的情况却没有发生在美国身上。”

After tariffs were placed on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of products between the US and China, signs of threatened growth have emerged across the global economy. On Thursday, a key gauge of factory activity in the US was fell by its most in more than a decade in December as hiring and new orders slowed sharply.
"The story here is that the trade war, coupled with China's underlying slowdown, is wreaking havoc in both countries," said Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "This makes us all the more convinced that a meaningful trade deal will be done over the next few months, but the manufacturing numbers will get worse before they get better."

在中美两国对价值数千亿美元的产品加征关税之后，已经出现了全球经济增长受到威胁的迹象。由于招聘和新订单大幅减少，上周四公布的有关12月美国工厂活动的一个关键指标出现了十多年来的最大幅度下滑。
万神殿宏观经济（Pantheon Macroeconomics）的首席经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森（Ian Shepherdson）表示：“事实就是，贸易战再加上中国潜在的经济放缓，正同时对两国造成严重破坏。这使我们更加确信，未来几个月内势必会达成一项具有实质意义的（中美）贸易协议——但在那之前，制造业数据还将进一步恶化。”

But aside from products facing earlier tariffs — including washing machines, solar panels, and metals — Chinese exports to the US have held up better than expected. Washington's goods trade deficit with Beijing hit an all-time high of $43.1 billion in November, with shipments up by nearly a tenth from a year earlier.
"One problem for the US is that many of its large export markets are not growing as quickly," the HSBC analysts said. "Another is that, according to US customs data, it is not just the US products that China imposed its retaliatory tariffs on that have seen weakening export growth to China, but US exports to China have seen some softening across the board."

但除了早期关税针对的产品（包括洗衣机、太阳能电池板和金属等）外，中国对美国的出口持续好于预期。去年11月，华盛顿对北京的货物贸易逆差创下了431亿美元的历史新高，进货总量比前一年同期增长了近十分之一。
汇丰银行的分析师们指出：“美国所面临的一个问题是，它的许多大型出口市场的成长速度不如中国的快；另一个问题则是，根据美国海关的数据，不仅仅是遭到中国报复性关税打击的美国产品的对华出口遭到削弱，所有美国对华出口整体上都变得疲软。”



（注：图表是十月份统计的今年第三季度中美两国各自主要出口市场的份额分布及表现。中国的对美出口增长7.7%；而美国对中国出口则下滑了18.7%另外，中国对前六大市场的出口平均增幅在10%左右，确实高于美国的对应数字。但比较有趣的是日本和英国——两国各自在中美出口中所占份额差不多，但这一时期，日本从中国进口几乎没变，从美国进口却增长了14.2%（可以理解，毕竟韩国增幅为27.9%冠绝美国众小弟，日本已经很矜持了）；英国则反过来，进口美国产品增幅相对低，从中国进口的增幅却是第一名。这是什么情况？）

To be sure, the US is far from alone in hurting from the tariffs, which Trump asserts are necessary to force China to change business practices the US sees as unfair. Trade barriers come at a particularly difficult time for officials in Beijing, who are grappling with an economy that has been growing at its weakest pace in a decade.
Manufacturing data out Wednesday showed China's private manufacturing activity contracted in December for the first time in 19 months. Adding to concern, Apple CEO Tim Cook said later that day that the company had underestimated the slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.
"While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China," he said in the letter lowering Apple's revenue forecast.

可以肯定的是，美国不是受到关税战伤害的唯一一方。特朗普断言，关税战对于迫使中国改变在美国看来极不公平的商业行为必不可少。对于北京的官员来说，贸易壁垒来得很不是时候——他们正努力应对本国经济十年来最慢的增长时期。
上周三公布的制造业（采购经理人指数）数据显示，12月中国私营部门制造业活动出现了19个月来的首次收缩。更令人担心的是，苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克当天晚些时候表示，公司低估了全球第二大经济体的放缓势头。
库克在心中说：“虽然我们预料到主要新兴市场将面临一些挑战，但经济减速的程度是我们没有想到的，特别是在大中华地区。”

Still, recent equity performance suggests both countries have suffered from rising protectionism. Stock markets around the world have shuddered in wake of the trade war, recording their some of the largest annual drops in years at the end of 2018. In the US, for instance, equities had their worst year since the financial crisis.

此外，近期的股市表现也说明，两国都深受日益高涨的保护主义之苦。全球股市在中美贸易战爆发后瑟瑟发抖，其中许多市场在2018年底录得了多年来的全年最大跌幅。以美国股市为例，2018年成为了自金融危机以来所经历的最糟糕的一个年头。

-------------------Reddit评论--------------------------------

-------------------1-------------------

[–]ChrisFromLongIsland
Well it looks like trump is listening. This morning magically it seems there is progress made in the talks between China and the US sending the stock market higher. Trump started a trade war to screw China. Ends up screwing the US. Now Trump is in the terrible position of having to capitulate since the longer this goes on the lower the stock market and the US economy goes. All so predictable all so dumb.

特朗普似乎是有听到这些。今天上午（指上周五），中美间的谈判好像刚刚取得了神奇的进展，股市也因此走高。特朗普发动一场贸易战，本想击倒中国，但最终却害苦了美国自己。现在特朗普正处于不得不做出让步的糟糕境地，因为目前这种状况持续时间越长，美国股市和经济就会越低迷。这一切都是多么显而易见，又多么愚蠢。

[–]Socky_McPuppet
Trump is in the terrible position of having to capitulate
It's only terrible in its optics for those of us who remain in contact with objective reality. He will make up some ridiculous lies about "he" won the trade are, say or tweet them, FOX will amplify them, and his idiot base will believe him.

“特朗普正处于不得不做出让步的糟糕境地”
只有我们这些一直追踪事态客观真相的人才会觉得现况糟糕。（对于其他大多数人）特朗普只会编造一些他“赢了”的荒唐谎言，要么用说的要么发推文。然后福克斯新闻会帮他推波助澜，然后他的白痴拥趸就会买账。

[–]The_QuackeningCanada
china opened up the sale of US rice to china is probably the reason.
the amount of rice that the US grows is fairly insignificant, but its a symbolic gesture.

他可能会把中国开放进口美国大米当作借口。
然而美国的大米种植量实在是微不足道，这不过是一种象征性姿态。

-------------------2-------------------

[–]viva_la_vinyl
It’s funny because I remember reading that “Trade wars are good and easy to win.”

有趣，我记得之前看到的是“贸易战很好，很容易就能赢”

[–]toeofcamell
Just assume whatever he says is 180 degrees opposite

把他（特朗普）说的任何话翻转180度，反着理解就对了

[–]amateur_mistake
China has a singular advantage in the current trade war. Which is that they have definitely worked out an actual plan.
Whereas Trump just flies from one whim to another while spouting bullshit like the quote you posted.
Whether or not one of our economies was initially better positioned to win a trade war, if you have no plan you are fucked.
edit: Also, "Winning" a trade war is pretty fucking stupid thing to say just in general.

目前的贸易战里，中国有她独特的优势，那就是：他们绝对已经实实在在拟定了一个计划。
而特朗普就只能一边想到哪儿算哪儿，一边不断说些像你引用的那种胡言乱语。
如果你全无谋划，那么不论我们的经济体在贸易战开始时是否更具优势，我们也注定完蛋。
[编辑]：还有，“赢得”一场贸易战无论如何都是非常愚蠢的说法。

[–]bexmex Washington
What confuses me is who told him to do it? Somebody with some information about the economy is guiding this tariff nonsense. Trump doesn’t have sufficient brain cells to know whether a tariff on rice is a good or bad idea, or how much it should be. Just “screw China!”
So who’s whispering in his ear about which industries to hurt and help? And how is that person making money off the tariff? Because that’s probably what’s going on.

真正令我不解的是，到底一开始是谁在怂恿他？必定是某些掌握了相关经济信息的人在引导他打这场莫名其妙的关税战。特朗普可没有足够的脑细胞来判断对大米加征关税是好还是不好、以及到底该加征多少……他只晓得“和中国干”就对了！
那么，是谁在他耳边窃窃私语，告诉他应该损害或是帮助哪些产业？这个背后的人又是如何从关税战中牟利的？我觉得这很可能才是事情的真相。

-------------------3-------------------

[–]LockThemUp2020
The stock market has already figured this out, down 20% from the highs in October. I am hoping it gets some of the country club Republicans that held their nose and supported Trump to turn on him.

这个股票市场早就知道了，10月份从高点一路下跌了20%。我希望这能让一些乡村俱乐部里的共和党特朗普支持者清醒过来，反对他。

[–]thatscool22
Watch Fox News and you’ll see that this will be a win for trump and they’ll say something about the democrats being against it. “Especially that evil Nancy pelosi and Pocahontas warren!”

如果你看的是福克斯新闻，你只会看到“这将是特朗普的一场胜利”，而且他们会说：然而那些民主党人却在反对这场胜利，尤其是邪恶的南希·佩洛西（Nancy pelosi，美众院议长）和波卡洪塔斯·华伦（Pocahontas warren，即美民主党女参议员伊丽莎白·华伦，自称印第安人，特朗普就用“波卡洪塔斯”这个名字戏谑她）！

[–]CordCutter
FYI China’s Shanghai Composite has been down much more from its highs early last year.

好教你知道，中国的上证综合指数去年的跌幅可比这个大得多。

[–]donpepep
The US stock market depends a lot on China, hence both go down at the same time.
The difference is that in China people have pensions, while in the US savings and retirement depend on the Market. So the stock market going down has a way larger destabilizing effect in the US than in China.

美国股市在很大程度上依赖于中国，所以它们（去年）都跌得很惨。
但区别在于，中国人有养老金，而在美国，人们的储蓄和退休生活都依赖于股票市场。因此，股市下跌对美国造成的不稳定要比中国大得多。

-------------------4-------------------

[–]StatisticalAstronautNew Jersey
Not at all shocking. Protectionism hurts us, free trade is the only way to go.

一点也不意外。保护主义只会伤害我们自己，自由贸易才是唯一的出路。

[–]PDNYFL Florida
Protectionism hurts us, free trade is the only way to go.
Maybe....if it ever happens. China is extremely protectionist and many of the US's trading partners have some sort of tariffs or regulations to protect their domestic industries.

“保护主义只会伤害我们自己，自由贸易才是唯一的出路。”
或许吧……如果自由贸易真的存在的话。中国是最极端的保护主义者，另外美国的许多贸易伙伴都设置了多种关税或法规来保护他们的国内产业。

[–]Deus_Imperator
And we heavily subsidize many domestic industries in america, making our products cheaper and foreign goods less attractive.
You cant call out other countries for doing what we do.
Chinas does do it the most but acting like canadians dairy tariffs arent the same as our massive subsidies to corn etc are any different is disingenuous.

然而我们也对美国的许多国内产业进行大量补贴，这样我们的产品就能更便宜，能比外国产品更具吸引力。
你不能指责其他国家做我们也在做的事情。
中国的确在这方面做的最多，但非要说加拿大人的乳品关税、我们的大规模玉米补贴是不一样的，就太虚伪了。

[–]PDNYFL Florida
And we heavily subsidize many domestic industries in america, making our products cheaper and foreign goods less attractive.
You cant call out other countries for doing what we do.
Chinas does do jt the most but acting like canadians dairy tariffs arent the same as our massive subsidies to corn etc are any different is disingenuous.
I was merely pointing out that we did not have free trade before the 2016 election and we don't now. Reddit slams China (rightly) for their human rights abuses, lack of Intellectual property protection and a host of other issues but spins 180 on them because this revolves around something Trump did. Tariffs are the last resort in trade disputes, but it seems there is much more outrage due to the person that created them than what they actually are.

“然而我们也……”
我仅仅是要指出，我们在2016年的大选之前没有自由贸易，现在也没有。然而（2016年前）Reddit猛烈抨击中国侵犯人权、缺乏知识产权保护和其它一系列问题，但就因为特朗普，Reddit对中国的态度来了个180度大转弯。关税的确是解决贸易争端的最后手段，但似乎这里（Reddit）对发动关税战的人的愤怒远远超过了发动关税战的原因本身。

[–]BoatsMcFloats
My business imports from China. The additional costs have been passed on to me. Because of this, it costs me more and now I have to reconsider how much business I can do.
I imagine I am not the only one who has been affected like this

我的生意就要从中国进口。额外费用已经转嫁到了我身上，因此我的成本增加了，我现在不得不重新考虑自己的生意规模。
我想我不是唯一受到这种影响的人。

[–]Qilo5
You are right.
Onshoring started a couple of years ago with wages creeping up in China anyway.
Attempting to bring back delocalized business without taking care of our educational deficiency is just squandering the opportunity. Opportunity cost is not lost China and they are leaping forward with tech, human population and military expansions.

你说的对。几年前，随着中国工资水平的攀升，部分制造业就已经开始回流了。然而，不解决我们的教育机制缺陷的话，想要让非本土业务回流回来只能是徒劳。在机会成本方面中国仍然有优势，而随着科技、人口和军事力量的成长，他们还能继续跃进。

-------------------5-------------------

[–]GypsySaiyan
Just invade China and take over there shitty country like Britain did before

干脆直接入侵中国，占领他们的烂国家算了，就像从前的英国佬那样。

[–]SamIwas118
Yeah WW3 is the answer

是啊，用第三次世界大战来解决问题？

[–]SpeedDart
He’s an edgy teen, ignore.

就是个愤青，别理他。

-------------------6-------------------

[–]MarquisDeMiami
No shit, China can last longer in a trade war than any other country.

还用说？中国在贸易战里能比任何国家坚持得更久。

[–]treen720
No it can't. One obvious example is North Korea.

非也，例如：朝鲜显然就更能撑。

[–]mickstep Great Britain
*While keeping their population fed, and not having to resort to violently repressing their population to avoid being overthrown.

在能维持国内粮食供应、不必诉诸暴力镇压人民的前提下！

[–]treen720
China is a net-importer of food products. It literally needs imports to keep its population fed.

中国可是一个粮食净进口国。她实际上必须通过进口以维持国内粮食供应。

[–]rohanshenoyForeign
Oh no. If only there were other countries in the world.

哦不～真希望这世界上还有别的国家（可以出口粮食）。

[–]mickstep Great Britain
Yes, and as it has shown it has many sources it can go to instead of the US such as Brazil.

没错，也正如我们已经看到的，中国有很多可以替代美国的进口来源，比如巴西。

[–]Supermunch2000 62
Brazil's soybean exports to China has had a huge growth thanks to President Trump's "easy to win" trade war.

多亏了特朗普总统“很容易就能赢”的贸易战，巴西对中国的大豆出口量出现了巨大增长。

[–]thatscool22
And when the tariff of US soybeans is lowered, will China want to trade with us again? If I was a leader, I wouldn’t. Why let an unstable country trade with you if at any time they will raise tariffs? It’s too risky to trade with America with the republicans running amok.

而就算针对美国大豆的关税降低，中国人还愿意再次从美国进口大豆么？如果我是（他们的）领导人，我就不会。为什么要和一个随时可能搞关税战的不稳定的国家进行贸易呢？共和党人全都行事疯狂，与美国做贸易的风险太大了。

[–]BringBackAoE
It takes time to set up new trading channels. Once done you need an incentive to change it.
That is why the Chinese bought so much from the US, then they got the incentive (trade war) to change the channels, and even if the trade war ends that's no incentive for them to switch back.

建立新的贸易渠道需要时间。而一旦建立起来，要改变它你也需要一个额外的诱因。
中国人先前从美国购买这么多东西。后来（贸易战）给了他们改变渠道的诱因；今后就算贸易战结束，却并不存在什么能让他们回头的诱因。

[–]sweet-tuba-riffs Iowa
As right as you are (which is pretty right), don't underestimate the ability of Brazil to spin wildly out of control. It is not a stable nation--at least not in the same way as America pre-Trump. They even flunked the Olympics.

尽管你说的对（可以说相当正确），但也不要低估了巴西自己失控的可能。它可不是一个稳定的国家，至少比“前特朗普时代”的美国不稳定多了。他们甚至连办个奥运都能搞砸了。

[–]thatscool22
Brazil is pretty corrupt but they’re not stupid. If they have China doing business there, they’re gonna help China keep doing business there.

虽说巴西政府相当腐败，但他们并不蠢。既然他们和中国做生意，他们就会尽力维持与中国的生意。

[–]Zfusco
Not to mention Bolsonaros slashing of the minimum wage is going to make farm labor even cheaper, so china can buy more soybeans.
It's a great example of how this ultra right wing protectionist economic policy fails on a macro scale. We tariff our way out of selling any more soybeans, so brazil decides to pick up the account by making it worse for their working and rural poor. China gains, Brazil and the US both lose.

更别提博尔索纳罗（Bolsonaro，巴西总统）正在大幅削减最低工资，这将使巴西农业劳动力更廉价，中国因此还能购买更多大豆。
这是一个很好的例子，说明这种极右翼的保护主义经济政策在宏观经济层面上是如何失败的。我们一路提高关税直到大豆卖不出去，而巴西决定不惜进一步恶化其工人和农村贫困人口的处境来抢占这门生意。最后只有中国获利，而美巴皆输。

[–]yuckfoubitch
If it’s the best supply chain to order from, then yes, they’ll do trade. Money doesn’t usually let emotions or morals get involved (see US and Saudi deals)

只要能提供最好的供应链，那么，他们就还会（和我们）做贸易。资本通常不会让情绪或是道德挡道（参考美国和沙特的交易）。

-------------------7 单个评论-------------------

[–]jefferson_waterboat
The difference is China has actually stopped buying shit from the US, while US consumers are paying more for Chinese goods because of the tariffs.
It’s unnoticeable to the average consumer, but the tariffs have very likely wiped out any tax savings from the tax cut

（中美）双方的不同在于，中国是实实在在停止了从美国进口一些乱七八糟的东西，而美国消费者却因为关税不得不支付更高的费用来购买中国商品。
对普通消费者来说，这或许还并不明显，但它很可能已经抵消了之前减税给人们带来的任何好处。

[–]HMWastedDaysCalifornia
China buys from someone else and the US can't find someone else to sell to. Of course it hurts the US more than China.

中国能从别人那里进口，而美国却找不到别的买家。美国当然会比中国更受伤。

[–]LordBlimblah
Most companies are saying Chinas economy is doing terrible. You can only create growth by building empty apartments for so long.

但大多数公司都声称中国经济表现很糟糕。你通过建造没人住的公寓楼能创造的经济增长也该到头了。

[–]PragProgLibertarian California
Nobody knew tariffs on raw materials would hurt manufacturing!

谁能想到对原材料加税会伤到制造业呢！

[–]dannydaleLouisiana
I'm guessing we'll shortly find out this trade war was designed and precision engineered in detail by Putin.

我猜我们很快就会发现，这场贸易战其实是由普京精心设计并策划的。

[–]TheFilthiestCorndog
I have no idea what is true anymore. I just listened to an NPR interview yesterday that said literally the exact opposite of this.
I am just going to stop paying attention.

我现在已经不知道什么才是真的了。我昨天刚收听了一个美国全国公共广播电台（NPR）的采访节目，里面说的和这个完全相反。
我决定不再关注此事了。

[–]RDAM60
In so much as Trump has made the US the aggressor (even if you count China's past trade misbehavior), China is pitching this as a challenge to the Chinese people and as a moment for them to "stick together through the suffering," In that way this is a losing war for the US...we have no such sense that this is a "moment," for America to stick it out and stick together...mostly because Trump draws his power from sowing dis-unity not inspiring common purpose.

特朗普让美国变成了“贸易侵略者”（即使你算上中国曾经的贸易不公行为仍然如此），中国则把这视为对全体中国人民的挑战，同时也是他们“同舟共济”的时刻，在这方面美国正在输掉这场战争……因为我们没有这样的感觉，在美国我们并不觉得这是一个必须团结一致坚持到底的“时刻”……主要原因就是特朗普攫取权力靠的恰恰是制造分裂，而非鼓舞美国人团结于一个共同目标。