一旦中国赢得贸易战，美国会采取军事行动吗？（上） [美国媒体]

一旦中国赢得贸易战，美国会采取军事行动吗？（上）



Alyasa Gan
There are no military options. Its too late. China is not as strong as the USA but it had the capacity to cripple it. It is not necessary to compare military arsenal to decide who will survive but looking at the possible outcome is enough to frighten the US.

美国不会做出军事选择，太晚了。中国虽然不像美国那么强大但它有能力削弱美国。没必要通过比较军火库来决定谁会笑到最后，看看可能的后果就足以震慑美国。

I have written many times that Chinese military power is based more on strategic maneuvering rather than close tactical operations. For example its planes can cause much damage and still manage not to engage its enemy directly. It’s very expensive to built a plane to engage in a dogfight but its cheaper to shoot it down from a distance your enemy can’t reach you. The J20 will be able to do severe damage to aircraft and ships that carry supplies and cripple the American ability to sustain a war without significant loses.
To break the US attack China needs only to target its Warships and Aircraft carriers and China have a perfect weapon for that. The Hypersonic Glide Vehicles are specially designed to do the damage. The J20 through the military GPS will be able to detect supply ships and planes which could be easily intercepted and harassed by Chinese J20 and other plane which may include Drones. Chinese artificial island are there to provide cover and information vital in the event of an attack.

我已经写过很多次了，中国的军事力量更多的是基于战略机动，而不是近距离的战术行动。例如，它的飞机可以造成很大的损害，但仍然不能直接与敌人交战。制造一架空战的飞机是很昂贵的，但从敌人察觉不到的地方击落它要便宜得多。歼20将能够对携带补给的飞机和船只造成严重损害，削弱美国在不造成重大损失的情况下维持战争的能力。
为了打破美国的攻击，中国只需要瞄准自己的军舰和航空母舰，而其拥有完美的武器。超音速滑翔飞行器是专门设计来破坏的。歼20通过军用GPS将能够探测到补给船和飞机，它们很容易被中国的歼20和其他飞机拦截和骚扰，这些飞机可能包括无人机。中国人工岛的存在是为了在遭受攻击时提供重要的掩护和信息。（注：自2014年2月开始，中国在南薰礁、赤瓜礁、永暑岛、渚碧岛、美济岛、华阳礁和东门礁等7个岛礁上进行了史无前例的大规模填海造陆，吹填陆地面积超过12平方千米。）

China underwater drones are becoming more sophisticated and in the future will become a threat to American warships and supply lines .
I am of the opinion that Geographically, the US would not be able to execute and sustain a winning strategy if they want to attack China. Its is too late. China has built its army just for that response and now is building its army to create more damage to blunt an attack swiftly from the US. With the Russian watching it is insane for America to chose such a stupid option. China is not Iraq, or Afghanistan. America has not win a war decisively since the second world two. At best a draw in Korea and from Vietnam after realizing that it could not face the cost of winning.

中国的无人潜航器正变得越来越先进，未来将对美国军舰和补给线构成威胁。
我的观点是，从地理上讲如果美国想要攻击中国，它将无法执行并维持一个成功的战略。实在是太晚了。中国组建军队就是为了应对这样的反应，现在中国正在建设军队制造更大的杀伤力，以迅速压制来自美国的攻击。在俄罗斯的虎视眈眈下，美国做出如此愚蠢的选择简直是疯了。中国不是伊拉克，也不是阿富汗。自第二次世界大战以来，美国从未决定性地赢得一场战争。在意识到自己无法接受获胜的代价，充其量在朝鲜和越南只能打成平手。

The last time the American met the Chinese at the Korean Long Yuan Hll they retreat after meeting dedicated Chinese volunteers. The bottom line is the Chinese willingness to sacrifice for their country. China was halfway to Hanoi after only weeks but American bombed Vietnam to the ground only to retreat. They were not willing to sacrifice like the Chinese. I have heard many Indians writers saying the Chinese have no experience in war. Where did they get their idea?. The truth is Chinese despise war because it brings suffering and lost of love ones but once call for duty they comes by the thousands. The Chinese have fought wars throughout their history and have come out victorious. Even the mongols becomes part of China. The world must thank the Chinese. They held the Japanese and wore down their resolve to win. The Japanese poured most of their resources in China but China stood firm and help to save the second world war. The Japanese hate the Chinese because if China had succumbed Japan would have had the resources to continue the war. Japan were bogged down in China.

上一次美国人在朝鲜龙苑遇到中国人，他们在遭遇了热诚的中国志愿军后退却了。归根结底，中国人愿意为自己的国家做出牺牲。仅仅几周后美国轰炸越南，中国抵达了河内（越南首都）的一半，结果美军就撤退了。他们不愿意像中国人那样牺牲。我听过许多印度作家说中国人没有战争经验。他们这想法从哪来的？事实是中国人鄙视战争，因为战争给人们带来痛苦和失去爱的人，但一旦要求他们履行义务就会成千上万前仆后继。中国人在整个历史上都打过仗并取得了胜利。甚至蒙古人也成为中国的一部分。世界必须感谢中国人。他们控制住了日本人，削弱了他们赢得胜利的决心。日本人把他们的大部分资源倾注到中国，但中国坚定地帮助挽救了第二次世界大战。日本人讨厌中国人，因为如果中国屈服日本就会有资源继续战争。日本在中国陷入困境。

The world should not look at China as an enemy but as a friend. It must not isolate it but should treat it as a partner for peace and prosperity. China had many to offer, it have many experience, technology and culture to share. Go to China you will be amazed.

世界不应视中国为敌人，而应视中国为朋友。不应该孤立它，而应把它视为和平与繁荣的伙伴。中国有许多东西可以提供，它有许多经验、技术和文化可以分享。去中国的话你会大吃一惊的。

David Ellsworth
I hope the generality of the people of US will learn to relate with the rest of humanity in a democratic and friendly manner and go beyond the idea that they have the right to use military force to impose their concepts of order on a submissive world. The current popularity of domination over all others is not sustainable and will likely evoke a very strong combined response from the rest of the countries.

We can now see even those most agreeable with the US are looking for ways to convince the US that this domination is unacceptable and they are seeking agreement with others for alternative relationships outside involvement with the US. They are aware of the present futility of trying to get fair and functional relationships that include the US.

我希望全体美国人民学会以民主和友好的方式与其他人交往，不再认为有权使用军事力量将他们的秩序观强加于世界使其顺从。目前对所有其他国家的统治是不可持续的，可能会引起大家强烈的联合反应。
我们现在可以看到，即使是那些与美国关系最好的人，也在想方设法让美国相信这种支配地位是不可接受的，他们正在寻求与其他国家达成协议来建立与美国无关的替代关系。他们意识到，试图建立包括美国在内的公平和正常的关系是徒劳无益的。

We can see international progress being made in a variety of fields outside the influence of America. The BRICS countries have a world embracing relationship for progress independent of the US. The Euro has probably reached the use for international payments close to that of the US dollar and the rate of abandonment from the US dollar and reliance on other currencies is accelerating. Banking agreements and systems are developing to avoid the dictates of the US in the World Bank and other international monetary processes. The evidence of international agreement outside the realm of US control is quickly becoming very clear.

我们可以看到，在不受美国影响的各个领域，国际社会正在取得进展。金砖五国拥有一个独立于美国、拥抱进步的世界关系。欧元可能已经达到了接近美元的国际支付水平，美元的弃用率和对其他货币的依赖正在加快。银行协议和体系正在发展，以避免美国在世界银行(Worldbank)和其他国际货币过程中的指令。在美国控制范围之外达成国际协议的证据正迅速变得非常明显。

The realization of the organic oneness of all people on earth is an irresistible force in the evolution of this planet. It will proceed most peacefully with US as an equal participant or by a more troubling processes that will require American surrender to this reality.
By far the greatest danger is that facing the US in its delusional insistence that it has the right of deciding, directing and enforcement of international law and order.
Without respect for the inclusion of all nations as equal in the administration of international relations the US cannot hope for a good outcome and will likely suffer unimaginable consequences.

认识到地球上所有人的有机统一性是地球进化过程中一种不可抗拒的力量。它将以最和平的方式进行，需要美国作为一个平等的参与者或通过一个更麻烦的进程，这将要求美国屈服于这一现实。
到目前为止，最大的危险是面对美国妄自尊大地坚持认为它有权决定、指挥和执行国际法律和秩序。
如果不尊重所有国家在国际关系管理中的平等地位，美国就不能指望有一个好的结果，而且很可能会遭受难以想象的后果。

Ivan Kraljevic Answered Nov 19
The link that was provided with the question actually predicts that it's China that will lose the trade war.
But, if we take the premise of the question as correct (i.e. that hypothetically China would be the one winning the trade war), it would be unlikely that the US would willingly pursue a direct military solution.
Simply put, China is too strong a country to be put down militarily but at great cost.
Instead, the US is not only the most powerful country in terms of military strength, but also in terms of financial hegemony and intelligence apparatus. It can use those tools instead of a direct military confrontation.

这个问题所提供的链接实际上预示着中国将会输掉这场贸易战。
但是，如果我们认为这个问题的前提是正确的(即假设中国将赢得贸易战)，美国就不太可能自愿寻求直接的军事解决办法。
简单地说，中国是一个强大的国家，不可能在军事上被打倒，击败它代价是巨大的。
相反，美国不仅在军事实力上最强大的，在金融霸权和情报机构方面也是如此。它可以使用这些手段，而不是直接的军事对抗。

For example, just regarding the US' financial hegemony, the recent episode where Turkey was chastised demonstrates the power America has: Simply by applying some additional tariffs, the US Administration pushed the lira over the exchange cliff, whence the Turkish government rushed to make amends, including releasing an American Pastor that they had jailed two years earlier as an alleged accessory in the attempted coup against Erdogan in 2016.
The truth is that the US, by virtue of its economic dominance, can break almost any small country and most mid sized countries when it decides to.

例如，就美国的金融霸权而言，最近土耳其受到严惩的事件表明美国拥有强大的力量：仅仅通过征收一些额外的关税，美国政府就将里拉（货币）推下了汇率悬崖，土耳其政府随即在那里进行了弥补，包括释放了两年前作为政变从犯而被监禁的一名美国牧师，他在2016年反对埃尔多安（土耳其总统）未遂。事实是，美国凭借其经济主导地位，一旦做出决定，几乎可以摧毁几乎所有小国和大多数中等国家。（注：8月10日特朗普威胁对土耳其铝钢分别征收20%和50%惩罚性关税后，土耳其金融市场崩盘，本币累计贬值50%。土耳其作为中东经济一哥，几天内就蒸发掉一半的GDP。美国之所以能如此轻而易举的让土耳其陷入危机之中，其根本问题还是出自于土耳其本身，高通胀、高外债、高政府赤字，前有经济制裁，后有债台高筑这些将土耳其经济推到了悬崖边缘。）

That's why countries who defy the US, like Iran and Cuba, are few, as such a stance implies economic hardship.
The only ones that can attempt to act independently are, of course the big ones, which today means China, the EU (European Union) and, to some extent, Russia.
Up to 2016 the EU posed no concern for the US, as Europe was content to submit to the US leadership in most international policy matters, willingly supporting the US in its endeavors, including a few wars.
The 2016 presidential elections in the US changed all that, as it brought to power the Alt-Right's Nationalist project.

这就是为什么像伊朗和古巴这样蔑视美国的国家很少，因为这样的立场意味着经济困难。
唯一能够尝试独立行动的国家，当然是大国，也就是今天的中国、欧盟(EU)，以及某种程度上的俄罗斯。
直到2016年，欧盟对美国没有任何担忧，因为欧洲在大多数国际政策事务上都满足于美国的领导，愿意支持美国的努力，包括几场战争。
2016年美国总统大选改变了这一切，因为它带来了另类右翼的民族主义计划。
（注：另类右翼Alt-right，完整的英文拼写方式为alternative right，即持有极端保守或反对变革观点的意识形态组织，主要特点是反对主流政治，通过网络媒体故意散布有争议的内容。）

Nationalism ultimately measures success and failure by the relative position of the country in the world. For an hegemonic power, its main concerns are its actual, potential or imagined adversaries.
In that line, the EU, with an economy and population larger than those of the US, suddenly was perceived by the new US Administration as a potential foe (even an actual one, as President Trump unabashedly labeled them). It was not that Europe had changed, of course, it was just that the US had adopted a different optics.

民族主义最终以国家在世界上的相对地位来衡量成败。对于一个霸权国家来说，它主要关心的是其实际的、潜在的或想象中的对手。
在这方面，经济和人口都超过美国的欧盟，突然被美国新政府视为一个潜在的敌人(甚至是一个真正的敌人，正如特朗普总统毫不掩饰地给他们贴上的标签)。当然，这并不是因为欧洲发生了变化，而是美国采取了不同的视角。

The attitude towards China, instead, needn't shift as much. Previous Administrations already saw China as a potential threat, which even prompted President Obama to architect the Trans-Pacific Partnership initiative (TPP), in order to counter China's ascendancy.
President Trump's decision to abandon and therefore kill the TPP initiative, was thus a non-sensical blunder, that went against his own Nationalist agenda for the spurious satisfaction of attacking President Obama's “legacy".
Leaving that blunder behind, the current US Administration, driven by its Nationalist ideology, is bound to try to bring down or at least neuter the two entities that it perceives as “foes".

相反，对待中国的态度不需要改变太多。前几届政府已经将中国视为潜在威胁，这甚至促使奥巴马总统制定了《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)，以对抗中国的崛起。
因此特朗普总统放弃并因此扼杀TPP倡议的决定是一个毫无意义的错误，它违背了他自己的民族主义议程，即弃用奥巴马的旧政策以获得虚假的满足感。
抛开这个错误不提，受民族主义意识形态驱动的现任美国政府，肯定会试图打垮或至少削弱这两个它视为“敌人”的实体。

In regards to the EU, Brexit was just the opening battle, as it has become public that the US Administration has attempted to bribe other countries to leave the Union, while the Russian allies of the anti-EU forces engage in cyber war supporting the Nationalist parties that want to pull their countries out of the Union.
Now, if just one or two major European countries (say France, maybe also Italy) could be delivered to their Nationalist parties, that would drive their exit from the union and the rapid collapse of the European project.
At that point, the US could cajole the thus weakened, divided, European countries, as well as much of Latin America, Africa and Asia, into an Anti-China Trade Front, strong enough to bring China to relinquish its dream of becoming a highly developed nation.
That's a more likely course of action by the US than pursuing direct military confrontation.
Of course, that path may alternatively bring China to escalate the conflict beyond the commercial arena.

就欧盟而言，英国退欧只是一场开战，因为美国政府已公开表示其试图贿赂其他国家脱离欧盟，而反欧盟势力的俄罗斯盟友则发动网络战争，支持那些希望让自己国家脱离欧盟的民族主义政党。
现在，如果只有一两个主要的欧洲国家(比如法国，也许还有意大利)能被送到民族主义政党手中，那将促使他们退出欧盟，并导致欧洲计划的迅速瓦解。
在这一点上，美国可以哄骗被变弱、分裂的欧洲国家，以及拉美、非洲和亚洲的许多国家，组成反华贸易阵线，强大到足以让中国放弃成为一个高度发达国家的梦想。
这是美国更有可能采取的行动，而不是直接的军事对抗。
当然，这条道路可能会让中国把冲突升级到商业领域之外。

Jack Ko
I think the US would or has been trying to inflict some geopolitical incidents near China, and force China to react. If successful, the US can cripple China significantly with manageable losses on its own, while the actual price would be paid by US allies in the region.
For example, US can try to stir up the tension in Korea peninsula. A full blown Korean War 2.0 would be disastrous for both Koreas as well as China, as the location is literally right next to Northern China and Beijing. However, for the US, it’s OK, as it is very unlikely that the war and the refugees would reach US soil. The difference in relative damage between US and China, gives US a huge advantage in this case.

我认为美国将要或者已经试图在中国附近制造一些地缘政治事件，迫使中国做出反应。如果成功，美国可以凭借自身可控的损失大幅削弱中国，而其在该地区的盟友将付出实际代价。
（注：地缘政治是政治地理学说中的一种理论。它主要是根据地理要素和政治格局的地域形式，分析和预测世界或地区范围的战略形势和有关国家的政治行为。它把地理因素视为影响甚至决定国家政治行为的一个基本因素。又被称为“地理政治学”。）
例如，美国可以试图挑起朝鲜半岛的紧张局势。一场全面爆发的朝鲜战争2.0对朝鲜和中国都是灾难性的，因为它的位置就在中国北方和北京附近。然而对美国来说这是可以的，因为战争和难民不太可能到达美国领土。中美之间相对损害的差异，使美国在这一事件中具有巨大的优势。

As a result, I am more than happy about the recent peaceful development between the two Koreas, as this trend defuses one of the biggest geopolitical time bombs near China. As a Chinese, I welcome the unification of two Koreas, even if the unification was dominated by the South.
Another example would be Taiwan. US can try to encourage Taiwan to go for de jure Independence. If that happen, China would be forced to seek unification through military actions. Meanwhile, US can try to support Taiwan through indirect means, such as intelligence support and selling of advanced weapons to Taiwan. This way, the US can maximise the damage incurred by PLA, without losing a single US soldier’s life. And of course, Taiwan would be smashed to dust if such war to occur.

因此，我对朝韩两国最近的和平发展感到非常高兴，因为这种趋势消除了中国附近最大的地缘政治定时炸弹之一。作为一个中国人，我欢迎南北韩的统一，即使统一是由韩国主导的。
另一个例子是台湾。美国尝试鼓励台湾在法律上独立。如果发生这种情况，中国将被迫通过军事行动寻求统一。同时，美国也可以通过情报支持、向台湾出售先进武器等间接手段支持台湾。通过这种方式，美国可以在不牺牲一名美军士兵生命的情况下，最大限度地提高中国人民解放军造成的伤害。当然，如果发生这样的战争，台湾将被夷为平地。

I am less optimistic about Taiwan strait development, as the issue between Taiwan and China/ROC and PRC is a lot more emotional than other geopolitical issues around China. The irrational sentiment of both sides would more likely lead to military conflict, which would interrupt China’s development and give US a relative advantage. This would require extra wisdom from the leaders and people of both sides of the straits.
South China Sea would be the other example. However, given the drastic naval/air power differences between China and Vietnam/Philippines. A large scale military conflict in South China Sea would only happen if US confronted China directly, so this is a less optimal option for the US when compared to the above two options.

我对台湾海峡的发展不太乐观，因为台湾与中国大陆/中华人民共和国之间的问题比中国其他地缘政治问题更加情绪化。双方的非理性情绪更有可能导致军事冲突，从而干扰中国的发展，给美国带来相对优势。这需要两岸领导人和人民拿出更多的智慧。
中国南海将是另一个例子。然而，考虑到中国和越南/菲律宾之间激烈的海空军实力差异。只有当美国直接面对中国时，南海才会发生大规模的军事冲突，所以与上述两种选择相比这对美国来说并不是最优选择。