要是中国真把美国的航母击沉在南海，会有啥反应？ [美国媒体]

What would the US response be if China followed through on the threat to sink two carriers?

要是中国真把美国的航母击沉在南海，会有啥反应？


Alex Cucos, Aerospace Engineer, Space hobbyist
Answered Wed former Corpsman at United States Navy and Tony Winkler, Former Infantry Marine, middlebrow philosopher
Firstly, it is extremely unlikely that China even could sink two American super carriers; they have never demonstrated the capability to any appreciable degree. China has yet to learn one of the harshest lessons of warfare; training during peacetime does NOT make up for real experience against contemporary militaries; simply because China has NEVER engaged in a true, modern, two-sided war against another country of near-technological parity. China hasn't yet learned the difference between sneaking a submarine up on a carrier battle group during routine cruises, and sneaking a submarine up on one during wartime conditions. China hasn’t yet learned that the ocean is REALLY REALLY big, and that finding a carrier in an area even the size of the South China Sea by satellite is almost impossible to do in real time, much less finding a carrier in the Pacific. China hasn't learned that ballistic missiles aren't used in conventional warfare for a REASON: They're expensive, conspicuous, and are not fluid weapons; once that missile is launched, not only will every nuclear nation with satellite technology immediately know where the launch site is, they'll soon know the trajectory of those so-called “carrier-killer” missiles, and move their assets 20 kilometers away in the 15 or 20 minute flight time of the missiles, which will be WELL outside the ability of the warhead to correct for during the terminal phase of its flight, when it's own guidance system will take over (unless China is constantly up-linking targeting data to the missile, which would be incredibly stupid as it would leave it highly open to jamming or other signal disruptions, so I find it unlikely).

首先，中国击沉两艘美国超级航母的可能性极小;他们从来没有表现出任何强到令人发指的能力。中国尚未从战争中汲取最惨痛的教训之一是——和平时期的训练不能弥补当代军队的实际战争经验；原因很简单:中国从未与另一个实力近乎平等的国家进行真正的、现代的、双边的战争。中国还没有搞清楚一艘潜艇想要潜入常规巡航中的航母战斗群和想要潜入战时航母战斗群的难度区别。中国没有认识到，大海是真的非常非常大，通过卫星想在中国南海这么大的区域找到航母几乎是不可能的，更不用说在太平洋上找到航母了。中国没有意识到弹道导弹不用于常规战争是有原因的:它们昂贵、显眼，且没有机动性；一旦导弹发射，每个有核国家的卫星不仅会立即知道发射地点在哪里，很快他们接下来就会算出那些所谓的“航母杀手”导弹的轨迹，并将其资产在导弹飞行的15或20分钟里转移到20公里外的地方，而这时导弹上的制导系统已经对此无能为力了(除非中国不断向导弹提供目标数据，但这样做很蠢，因为这很容易信号堵塞或被其他信号干扰，所以我认为这基本上是不可能的)。



[1] PLAN’s newest aircraft carrier, the Type 001A

[2] USN’s newest aircraft carrier, the Gerald R. Ford

Just based on the above photos, it should be immediately obvious that China is well behind the game in aircraft carrier technology; notice that the Type 001A looks almost identical to Kuznetsov-class carrier infamously “used” by Russia (when it’s not breaking down):

从上面的照片可以明显看出，中国在航母技术上远远落后于对手；请注意001A型看起来几乎和俄罗斯曾使用的臭名昭着的库兹涅佐夫号航母（还没坏的时候）一模一样:

[3] Admiral Kusnetsov underway in 1996

That’s because China’s “newest” carrier is actually just a modern update to a design that’s already pushing 45 years old. These aircraft carriers were first designed closer to WWII than to today, and while new island designs and modern RADAR systems still give the type 001A serious teeth, it does NOT give China experience operating, dealing with, or sinking super-carriers of the type utilized by the United States.

这是因为中国的“最新”航母实际上只是对已有45年历史航母的原有设计基础上进行现代升级改造出来的而已。这些航空母舰最初的设计相比与今天其实更接近于二战时期，虽然新的甲板设计和现代雷达系统仍然给001A型一些战斗力，它没有给中国带来操作，处理，或击沉美国使用的那种超级航母的经验。



Within the South China Sea, there is a bit more of a struggle, but not much. You see, when it comes to Air Superiority, China is FAR behind the game. Their only “5th” gen fighter, the J-20, is extremely under-powered, and features only frontal stealth (as opposed to the F-22’s which features full-aspect stealth, super-cruise capabilities, as well as super-maneuverability), and China has only produced 28 of them total (Compared to 180 F-22’s). Their mainstay fighters, the J-7 and J-10, are comparable to the MiG-21 (in fact the J-7 is literally just a foreign-produced MiG-21) and F-16 respectively. The J-11, Su-30, and Su-35 are all capable fighters, but they are 4th generation fighters, and China only has about 500 of them total. In contrast the U.S.A.F. and Navy have roughly 1300 4th generation fighters, and another 400 or so 5th-generation fighters. The Chinese Air Force would not only find themselves outgunned in the air, they would find themselves outnumbered.

而在南海，斗争会更加激烈，但也不会太多。你看我们一说到空中优势，就发现中国远远落后。他们唯一的“第五代”战斗机，J-20，动力极度不足，只有正面隐身能力(相对于F-22的全方面隐身、超巡航能力以及超机动性)，而中国总共只生产了28架(相比之下，F-22有180架)。他们的主力战斗机，J-7和J-10，可被分别看作是米格-21和F-16。虽然J-11、Su-30和Su-35都是有能力的战斗机，但它们是第四代战斗机，中国总共只有大约500架。相比之下，美国空军和海军拥有大约1300架第四代战斗机，以及大约400架第五代战斗机。中国空军不仅会发现自己在空中火力不足，还会发现自己在数量上处于劣势。

Unable to shoot down many of the 5th generation fighters and overwhelmed by the number of aircraft and missile systems the U.S. can bring to bear on China from Japan, South Korea, and other regional bases, China would soon find itself with a total lack of air support over the South China Sea, whereupon the rest of Chinese naval assets would be mopped up. B-2 and other highly stealthy aircraft and/or cruise missiles would destroy Chinese air-defense sites along the coast of China, and I could easily see China losing total control over their own skies within a month or two of the initiation of hostilities.

无法击落的第五代战斗机和被美国飞机和导弹系统的数量可以施加在中国从日本、韩国、和其他地区的基地，中国很快就会发现自己总在南海缺乏空中支援，于是剩下的中国海军力量会被抹去。B-2和其他高度隐形的飞机和/或巡航导弹将摧毁中国沿海的防空基地，我可以很容易地看到中国在开始敌对行动的一两个月内失去对自己领空的完全控制。



Anthony Holst, Studied Chinese expansion for State Department
Ridiculous. The Chinese would gain nothing from trying to sink a couple of U.S. Carriers even if they could. Then well known PLA(N) war plans, if they’re invaded, is to neutralize any attacking U.S. Carrier by disabling its ability to launch aircraft. Their strategy, as published in numerous white papers, would be carried out by conventional missile strikes to the carrier’s Island and flight deck. Without the ability to launch and recover aircraft, the carrier is just an innocuous floating piece of metal protected by its supporting ships. Once the the carrier is wounded, the PLA(N) can concentrate on other threats and keep their electromagnetic emissions to a minimum while tracking other U.S. threats from sea and air. It makes no sense to expose your weapons delivery systems to extremely deadly U.S. capabilities in an attempt to sink outright a damaged super carrier without going Nuclear which would void this scenario anyway.

荒谬。即使中国有能力击沉几艘美国航母，他们也不会从中得到任何好处。然后，解放军作战计划众所周知，如果他们被入侵，他们会瘫痪美国航母发射飞机的能力。他们的战略在许多白皮书中都发表过，他们将通过常规导弹袭击航母的指挥部和飞行甲板来达到这一目的。使其没有能力发射和回收飞机，航母充其量只是漂在水上一坨无害的铁疙瘩，由它的随行舰队保驾护航。一旦航母受创，解放军可以集中精力来对付其他威胁，并将电磁波控制在最小限度，同时追踪来自海上和空中的其他美国威胁。试图在不使用核武器的情况下彻底击沉一艘受损的超级航母，不仅毫无意义，而且还会把你的攻击方式暴露给对方这是致命的。