印度新的国防预算远远达不到现代化计划的要求 [美国媒体]

India’s new defense budget falls way short for modernization plans

印度新的国防预算远远达不到现代化计划的要求



NEW DELHI – India’s defense budget for 2019 included a marginal 6.87 percent bump to $49.68 billion, which is unlikely to meet modernization demands or ‘Make in India’ manufacturing increases.

新德里——印度2019年的国防预算小幅增加6.87%，至496.8亿美元，不太可能满足现代化需求和印度制造业的增长。

Out of the total allocation, $16.91 billion has been set aside to buy new weapons and other military hardware, compared to $14.68 billion in the previous financial year. But not accounted for are the liabilities, say some defense analysts, which could chip away at available funds.

在全部拨款中，已拨出169.1亿美元用于购买新武器和其他军事硬件，而上一财政年度为146.8亿美元。但一些防务分析人士说，债务没有计算在内，可能会侵蚀可用资金。



“The allocation for defense, which for the first time has crossed the $49 billion threshold is encouraging," said Baba Kalyani, chairman of leading private sector defense enterprise Bharat Forge Ltd. In terms of manufacturing, "we hope that ‘Make in India’ will result in a greater role for the private industry in this critical sector of the country’s economy.”

领先的私营防务企业巴拉特锻造有限公司董事长巴巴•卡里亚尼说:“国防拨款首次突破了490亿美元的门槛，令人鼓舞。”在制造业方面，“我们希望‘印度制造’将使私营企业在印度经济的关键领域发挥更大的作用。”

Cowshish is less encouraged, seeing very few noteworthy programs on the horizon.

柯什则不那么感到鼓舞，因为几乎没有什么值得注意的项目。

“It doesn’t seem likely that many big contracts for fighters, helicopters, submarines, etc. will get concluded in the coming year," he said. "This is not because of paucity of funds but on account of the fact that none of these procurement proposals are likely to reach anywhere near the contract conclusion stage any time soon. “

他说:“看来明年不太可能签订很多战斗机、直升机、潜艇等大型合同。这不是因为缺乏资金，而是因为这些采购提案都不可能在短期签订合同。”

Cookieoaffer
India is right to use a lower % of their GDP on defense as their economy grows, like China did at their stage of development. Their military can squish Pakistan like a bug at this point, and stands no chance against US or China even with more spending. So why bother spend more? Nothing except pride. Focus on economic development, fund R&D for home made weapons, start ramping up defense spending in the future when they are too big to ignore.

随着经济的增长，印度将较低百分比的GDP用于国防是正确的，就像中国在其发展阶段所做的那样。印度的军队可以像拍扁虫子一样拍扁巴基斯坦，而且即使增加开支，也不可能对抗美国或中国。所以为什么要花更多的钱呢? 除了因为骄傲就没别的了。把重点放在经济发展上，为国产武器的研发提供资金，在未来印度变得强大到不能忽视的时候，再开始增加国防开支。



fekahua
Are you sure India’s advantage over Pakistan is that clear?
Yes. It's not even close - India maintains a floodlit fenced border with Pakistan to ward off insurgents, can take out any missile or aircraft in Pakistani space via the S-400, outspends Pakistan on military by a factor of around 6 (2/3rds of which is poised against Pakistan). It has a functional nuclear triad effectively attaining full nuclear deterrence against China and Pakistan, so has no need to enter into an arms race with China.
Pakistan is struggling to maintain parity with India and already spends 121% of annual government revenues just on defense and loan servicing - which is not sustainable given the state of their economy - they need to take new loans just to keep schools and hospitals running. If they don't rationalize their defense budget then their economy will collapse - either of which works in India's favour, whether they choose to give up their militaristic delusions or decide to shoot themselves in the foot is up to them.
Pakistan does not need to enter a war of attrition, just carry out a preemptive strike against an Indian invasion and/or hold it back long enough for backup to arrive.
India does not need to invade Pakistan or capture Pakistani territory. Pakistan can't afford yet another invasion of India. The only military action India would consider would be bombing a terrorist training camp in a limited strike that attempts to avoid escalation to a full conflict with the Pakistani state.
India has some big problems to overcome, the two biggest being it’s water supply and it’s reliance on foreign technology.
Lowering defense budget frees up more money to deal with developmental projects such as water security.
Lowering defense budget this year essentially means India is buying less foreign arms and instead waiting for the domestic defense industry (TATA, Reliance) to scale up.
I’d say it’s smart for India to make peace with China and abandon plans of Pakistan invasion.
India and China have not seen any violence for 30+ years now, and are making conciliatory noises after Doklam.
India has no plan to invade Pakistan - only Pakistanis could be deluded enough to think that they have anything valuable enough for India to invade for.
Not only would this secure the northern border and the water supplies, but it would also open up the country for more foreign investment.
It's already one of the largest greenfield FDI attracting nations in the world - have you been under a rock for the last decade?
Again, India doesn't 'want pakistan', it wants to say 'good riddance to bad rubbish'. Most Indians and Pakistanis don't support re-unification in the same way that South Koreans do. India wants to have a similar relationship with Pakistan as it does with Bangladesh (another nation that used to be part of India) - with both sides trading as usual and working to address each others security concerns rather than meddling in each others affairs.

【你确定印度对巴基斯坦的优势很明显吗?】
是的。印度在巴基斯坦边界建有灯光围栏，用来抵御叛乱分子，可以通过S-400摧毁巴基斯坦空中的导弹或飞机，在军事上的支出比巴基斯坦高出大约6倍(其中2/3是针对巴基斯坦的)。拥有核三位一体发射能力，能够对中国和巴基斯坦实现全面核威慑，因此没有必要与中国展开军备竞赛。
巴基斯坦正在艰难地维持与印度的平等地位，并且已经将每年政府收入的121%用于国防——考虑到他们的经济状况，这是不可持续的——他们需要获得新的贷款来维持学校和医院的运转。如果他们不能合理的使用国防预算，那么他们的经济就会崩溃——无论哪种情况都对印度有利，他们是选择放弃军国主义的幻想，还是决定搬起石头砸自己的脚，都取决于他们自己。



barath_s
via the S-400
The S-400 does not exist in India at the current time.
"The deliveries will commence from October 2020 and will be completed by April 2023,
Are you sure India’s advantage over Pakistan is that clear? Pakistan does not need to enter a war of attrition, just carry out a preemptive strike against an Indian invasion and/or hold it back long enough for backup to arrive.
India has a decisive conventional edge over Pakistan. However, a simultaneous military threat or war with both Pakistan and China will be challenging. Nevertheless, China's commitment to a wholesale throw in with Pakistan in the event of war is possibly uncertain. Quite frankly, China's core interests and focus may not be served by that. In addition, it is India that has practiced the "Cold start doctrine" and not Pakistan [For a rapid response of war before internationalization with the UN etc] Pakistan's strategic response would be to draw a nuclear red line.
he two biggest being it’s water supply
These are not related to defence or war. While there are water stressed areas; these are not so far, related to any international riverine disputes; indeed the Indus Water Treaty has withstood several wars. India is a big country and it's a mistake to assume that any water challenges are automatically linked to the Indus river system or the Brahmaputra
it’s reliance on foreign technology
If you're talking about war making,perhaps.India has spent significant amount to have Indian supply chain.Nevertheless war supplies (eg ammo stocks) do have some challenges. Suitable planning should address this. Much depends on the nature of the war, planning, etc. It is not a given that war stocks would be cut-off from India in any case...especially considering that India has tended to not be the aggressor ...
India to make peace with China
India is not at war with China. Nevertheless the relationship and rivalry can grow tetchy. This has still been a far cry from any significant war; with measures taken at higher military and political levels on both sides to stave off chances of these...
abandon plans of Pakistan invasion
India has no such desires/plans. The occasional wish has been to punish Pakistan for terror sponsoring adventurism. Strategic space for this has been narrowed by the nuclear position of Pakistan, immense international pressure etc. Thus the more typical engagement tends towards skirmishes and perhaps a cross -line of control strikes on terror staging camps.
Every war fought so far has been initiated by Pakistan.
more foreign investment.
Pakistan and China are not really military/political factors related to Indian FDI. The factors are much more mundane, including ease of business, corruption, infrastructure, return on investment etc. India has received significant FDI but given its development challenges would like to attract more. Nevertheless volatile cross border capital flows have been destabilizing to all Asian economies,and India has been careful (and less hit) in that aspect..
India’s size dictates a measure of prosperity as long as it can be industrialized,
It is industrialized to a significant extent - eg consider that it is the 4th largest automobile industry in the world. (by volume) However, growth in manufacturing and higher capabilities (eg precision technology, advanced design and manufacturing) are obviously desired to help improve prosperity and employment...
If it still wants Pakistan by then,
India doesn't want Pakistan. That has been pretty much set in stone with partition, India would like its claims on Kashmir to be settled; but a substantial chunk of Indians might even be happy with the settling happening on status quo borders...

【通过S-400】
S-400目前印度不存在。
交付工作将于2020年10月开始，2023年4月完成

【你确定印度对巴基斯坦的优势很明显吗? 巴基斯坦不需要进入消耗战，只需要对印度的入侵进行先发制人的打击，或者拖延足够长的时间以待后援。】
与巴基斯坦相比，印度具有决定性的传统优势。然而，同时对巴基斯坦和中国进行军事威胁或战争是具有挑战性的。尽管如此，中国承诺在发生战争时与巴基斯坦全面合作，这一点可能还不确定。坦率地说，这可能并不符合中国的核心利益。此外，正是印度实施了“冷启动作战”， 而不是巴基斯坦。巴基斯坦的战略回应将是划定一条核红线。
【译注：印度陆军“冷启动”作战理论参考和借鉴了美军“空地一体”作战理论和“快速决定性”作战理论模式，其实质是采取先发制人的战略，通过一系列快速猛烈的进攻作战，在对方境内歼其有生力量，争取在最短的时间内实现作战目的。
“冷启动”作战理论标志着印军终于走出其过去50年来的防御思想，变防御作战为积极主动的进攻作战思想。在此理论的影响下，快速反应、机动作战和先发制人的突然打击将在印全军作战行动中得到广泛推行。来自百度百科】



TyraCross
Lowering defense budget frees up more money to deal with developmental projects such as water security.
Just curious - how is India planning to secure water sources? One of the main reasons China sits on Tibet is because of the water sources, which is the same water source for India. Are there new technology to extract water somewhere else?

【降低国防预算可以腾出更多的资金来处理水安全等发展项目】
我只是好奇——印度打算如何保护水源？中国坚持西藏的一个主要原因是水源，印度的水源也来源于此。有没有新的技术可以从其他地方获得水?

fekahua
Tibet is not an important water source in India, only the Brahmaputra river which originates there which is only relevant to a small section of India in the north east - and not particularly relevant in times of war since that area has some of the highest rainfall in the world. The major high population areas - e.g. the Ganges and the Yamuna originate in Kashmir (Indian controlled part) and are thus quite secure.
The real water problem in India is not related to geopolitics - it's about groundwater depletion, which is taking place at an alarming pace. I don't think there is a concerted strategy around this yet, but the company will need to start building desalination plants in the next decade or two.

西藏的水源对印度来说不重要。发源于那里的雅鲁藏布江只与印度东北部的一小部分地区有关，而且在战争时期并不特别重要，因为这些地区的降雨量是世界上最高的。
高人口地区，如恒河和亚穆纳河发源于克什米尔（印度控制），因此非常安全。
印度真正的水资源问题与地缘政治无关，是因为地下水的枯竭，这种枯竭正在以惊人的速度发生。我认为目前还没有一个协商好的战略，但各种公司需要在未来10年或20年内开始建设海水淡化厂。

Sikander-i-Sani
And to add to the irrelevance of Tibet as a water source; only 10% of Brahmaputra's water comes from Tibet based glaciers. The rest is in India

此外，在水资源方面，西藏是个枝节问题。雅鲁藏布江只有10%的水来自西藏的冰川，其余的都在印度。



NotRealRDJ
Pakistan, At the moment has an impending economic crises on her hands. India's water issue is not going to be solved as long as Pakistan remains independent ( which is NOT going to change). PRC had such a high per cent age funneled into RnD and Military because of Soviet threat. India is like a castle compared to that. You right about falling behind in military technology and Domestic Arms Industries but I am sure that nothing short of a high intensity long war can threaten India in which case foreign intervention is expected. We are way behind China on economic front that is most important issue. Trying to keep up with a way larger economy in military department did not end well for Soviets and won't end well for us.

巴基斯坦目前面临着迫在眉睫的经济危机。只要巴基斯坦保持独立(这无法改变)，印度的水资源问题就无法解决。由于苏联的威胁，中国有大量的资金被用于研发和军事。相比之下，印度就像一座城堡。你说得对，印度在军事技术和国内军工行业落后，但我确信，除非爆发一场高强度的长期战争，否则没有什么能威胁到印度，如果是这种情况，外国有可能干预。我们在经济方面远远落后于中国，这是最重要的问题。在军事方面投资更多的钱，对苏联来说并没有好的结局，对我们来说也不会有好的结局。

ParmanuMan
I don't see any reason why we need to up our defense budget anytime soon...
Our current defense capabilities and budget are more then enough to overwhelm pakistan. A land war with China is impossible due to himalayas and decent political relations. At most, we will have Bhutan style standoffs.
Our naval power projection capabilities are good enough for the immediate neighbourhood. There is no point in further beefing them up as we are unlikely to catch up with China or USA anytime soon.
It is more useful to rather funnel the increased budget into other parts of economy and make our fundamentals strong.

我看不出我们有什么理由需要在短期内提高国防预算……
我们目前的国防能力和预算已经足以压倒巴基斯坦。由于喜马拉雅山和良好的政治关系，中印之间不可能爆发陆地战争。最多也就是会有不丹式的对峙。
我们的海军投射能力足以应付邻近地区。没有必要进一步加强，因为我们不太可能在短期内赶上中国或美国。把增加的预算用于其他经济领域，使我们的基本面更加坚实，这才更有用。



thehiddenconifold
The main goal of India is to address some of its structural issue and continue on its path of becoming an economic superpower. India's military is sufficient to defend iself against predictable threats, mainly Pakistan, and boost its naval defense capabilities which its also doing by the construction of new aircraft carriers and warships in the next 5 yrs. Any sort of Chinese treat can be countered by the Quad, pact formed by India, Japan, The US and Australia. So, India at this time doesn't have a huge incentive to aggressively build its military given the current geopolitical scenario.

印度的主要目标是解决一些结构性问题，继续走它成为超级经济大国的道路。印度军队有足够的能力抵御可预见的威胁，主要是巴基斯坦，印度还会在未来5年建造新的航空母舰和军舰来增强其海军防御能力。中国的任何一种协议都可能遭到印度、日本、美国和澳大利亚组成的四国集团的反对。因此，考虑到当前的地缘政治形势，印度目前没有动机大力发展自己的军队。
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