美国网友评：数据显示印度的封城措施可能没起作用

 Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working

数据显示，印度的封城措施可能没起作用

 

India is unique among the world’s major nations in having implemented a total lockdown for such a long duration in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

在世界大国中，印度是唯一一个在疫情爆发后实施长时间全面封锁的国家。

The move crippled about 75% of the economy, according to Japanese investment bank Nomura, which has also predicted an almost 4.5% drop in GDP due to this in financial year 2021. In the April-June quarter alone, the Indian economy would contract by 6.1%, the company has said.

根据日本投资银行野村证券的数据，此举令印度经济的75%陷入瘫痪。该机构还预测，2021财年，印度GDP将因此下降近4.5%。该公司表示，仅在4-6月当季，印度经济就将萎缩6.1%。

Besides causing massive supply-chain disruptions, the lockdown has internally displaced millions of people.

除了造成大规模的供应链中断外，封城还导致数百万印度人流离失所。

Did it help?

封城有用吗？

Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government, which today (April 14) extended the lockdown till May 3, has argued that all this was necessary to “flatten the curve” of infections. However, the evidence it offers to back this claim is entirely unconvincing.

莫迪政府在4月14日将封城延长至5月3日，并辩称，这是降低感染率的必要措施。然而，政府提供的支持这一说法的证据是完全没有说服力的。

An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1.

例如，一名外交部官员在4月9日声称，根据一项内部评估，如果没有封城，到4月15日将会有82万人确诊。当被问及此事时，印度医学研究委员会(ICMR)最初表示不存在这样的研究，后来澄清说，这种说法是基于卫生部的“统计推断”，如表1所示。

So what is the right way to know if the lockdown helped?

怎样才能知道封城是否起了作用?

In the absence of an official reference model in India, all we have to go on is aggregate data on total confirmed cases nationwide, which is updated every day. The chart below plots the natural logarithm of total cases on the vertical axis with the time index on the horizontal.

在印度没有官方参考模型的情况下，只能依靠每天更新的全国确诊病例的汇总数据。下面的图表将总病例的自然对数绘制在纵轴上，时间指数绘制在横轴上。

It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.

图表显示，在新增病例增长缓慢、基本持平之后，印度进入了指数阶段，从3月4日左右开始，图表中的线条走势显示了这一点。请注意，这种指数级增长是在开始封锁前几周开始的，并持续到原定封锁期结束前两天。

An optimist might perhaps see a minuscule flattening of the curve from around March 30, but this is only a week into the lockdown. Given that the virus has a two-week incubation period, it obviously cannot be attributed to the lockdown. What is more, several states had initiated their own lockdowns in advance of the national one. Karnataka, for instance, announced one on March 13, Maharashtra on March 20.

乐观主义者或许会看到，从3月30日左右开始，增长曲线可能会出现极小幅度的趋平，但这仅是封城后的一周内。考虑到该病毒有两周的潜伏期，这显然不能归功于封城。更重要的是，几个邦在全国封城之前就已经开始了封城。例如，卡纳塔克邦于3月13日宣布封城，马哈拉施特拉邦于3月20日宣布封城。

If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flatten or bend toward the horizontal axis.

如果封城有效果，这条线的倾斜度应该向水平轴方向趋平。

Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must, thus, be accounted for as a failure.

鉴于印度为封城付出了重大的经济代价和人力代价，因此，这是失败的。

The bigger problem is that a focus on the lockdown takes away from the crucial question of ramping up testing.

更大的问题是，印度把注意力集中在封城上，忽视了增加检测这个关键问题。

There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.

毫无疑问，印度的检测水平仍低于全球标准。到目前为止，印度已进行了超过20万次检测，而美国每天进行10万次。果阿邦的旅游热门地区接待了来自世界各地的游客，因此很可能是一个疫情热点区，到目前为止，150万人口中只进行了大约400次以上的检测。然而，果阿仍然处于完全封锁状态，到目前为止只报告了7例病例、0例死亡。

美国雅虎读者的评论：

Raman Kolluri

So, what is your solution?

那作者你有什么解决方案?

 

Harvey

I spent 6 weeks backpacking across India, and believe me, it is IMPOSSIBLE to social distance because of the masses of people....

我曾花了6周时间在印度徒步旅行，相信我，在印度保持社交距离是不可能的，那里的人太多了啊……

 

Ram

Without lockdown it should be doubling every 3 days. Now it is doubling in 5 to 6 days and slowing down.

如果没封城，印度确诊病例每3天翻一倍。现在，5到6天内翻一番，并已经开始减速了。

 

Taro Baap

Fartz news is a prime example of how not all news companies are factual and unbiased.

并不是所有的新闻媒体都是实事求是、不偏不倚的。

 

Srikant

You must be joking that lockdown is not helping India. If there was no lockdown it would be 100 times NY based on the density and population of India.

封城对印度没起作用？你一定是在开玩笑吧？鉴于印度的人口规模和人口密度，如果没有封城，目前的确诊人数将是纽约的100倍。

 

Purma

Paid news, Fake news. Simply ignore this.

假新闻，花钱雇人写的，无视即可。

 

Yahoo guy

Fake media is contradicting John Hopkins University data

假新闻，与约翰霍普金斯大学的数据相矛盾

 

member of NO MA'AM

A country with that kind of population density, and that level of poverty (lots of migrant workers sleeping outdoors and such)...it's gonna be tough and take a lot longer than other places might. Rough sledding. Good luck, though.

印度是一个人口密度如此之高、贫困程度如此之严重的国家(许多农民工睡在户外)……

对印度来说，这将会是很艰难的一段时期，而且要比其他国家更长的时间来控制疫情。任务十分艰巨，祝你们好运。

 

Neil

Yahoo is officially 'fake news' channel...

雅虎正式成为“假新闻”频道……

 

RV

These as paid to present the one sided opinions about what India is doing. I am from India and I can tell you it is lot different on the ground. The reporters especially working for publications from the west present a dire scenario. India has the best leadership in place since her Independence in 1947.

这些都是对印度的片面看法。我来自印度，我可以告诉你们，实际情况截然不同。为西方出版物工作的记者们描绘了一个可怕的场景。自1947年独立以来，目前的印度领导层是最出色的。

 

Indira

In a billion plus people Death toll will be almost impossible to be accurate. too many poor people must have died and their is no account for these unfortunate poor people

印度人口有10多亿，死亡人数肯定不准确的。肯定死了很多穷人，但没统计到。

 

tony

what happened to drinking cow p?

喝牛尿有用吗？

 

Glen

Its India, there is like families of 20+ people living in single room apartments.... Who's fault is that?

在印度，有些家庭20多个人住一间单间公寓……这是谁的错?

 

Bob

You gotta have clean water to make the soap work.

必须有干净的水，用肥皂洗才管用

 

ALOK

Fake News Yahoo!!

雅虎假新闻！

 

ps

India's lock-down would have worked great if the tablighi muslem group had not sabotaged the efforts.

如果塔布里组织没有从中作梗，印度的封城措施会非常有效的。

 

dp

Another biased article planted by Modi baitors defying all figures and facts on ground. India is performing far better than any other country in the world and one cannot take away the credit for this from the present administration.

又是有偏见的文章，针对莫迪的，无视事实和数据。印度做得比任何国家都要好得多，谁也不能剥夺本届印度政府的功劳。

 

danish f

Shutdown or not, India or any developing nation do not have enough testing capacity to test its population. The masses will get sick, some will die, many will get better, but no one will know if it was corona or not.

不管封城与否，印度以及任何其他发展中国家都不具备足够的检测能力，没办法让所有人接受检查。大部分人会感染，一些人会死去，很多人会自愈，但不知道是否是感染了新冠肺炎。

 

Hannibal

India and China, two to never trust when it comes to giving the real number of the covid19 deaths.

提到死亡人数时，绝对不要相信印度和中国这两个国家。

 

D

bbc/AF/QZ/Bloomberg are desperate to see India having issues. No such luck.

BBC、AF、Quartz和彭博社都迫切希望看到印度出问题

 

jay

Does Quartz ever publish anything good about India?

Quartz发表过夸印度的文章吗?

 

Anonymous

At least its way better than US and most European countries. India is trying their best.

印度的情况至少比美国和大多数欧洲国家要好。印度正在尽最大努力。

 

K

Keep the panic alive, media! LOL!

媒体继续制造恐慌，哈哈

外文：https://finance.yahoo.com/m/f00f12ec-741a-324c-85a2-448a27db7fc2/data-show-india%E2%80%99s-coronavirus.html