华盛顿邮报评预测失误？美众媒体不承认民意 [美国媒体]

前言：在川普出人意料又理所当然的入主白宫后，原本我是想看看美国媒体是否会重演拿破仑入巴黎旧事，结果发现主流媒体仍是一边倒的捧希拉里批川普，仍在拒绝民意并发动宣传攻势，或许有些阴谋论，但或许美国媒体是不甘失败仍想靠舆论逼迫川普下台，捧起希拉里吗？
而这则是一篇难得的表示媒体有责任的华盛顿邮报文章，虽说主要还是黑一把川普。另外刚才看了下，除了游行，威胁独立，开枪外，希拉里支持者已经开始打人啦，真是输不起。



反川普民众怒烧川普

The media didn’t want to believe Trump could win. So they looked the other way.

媒体不愿相信川普能赢，所以他们看向其他方面。

时间  11月9日上午12时48分

作者  Margaret Sullivan

To put it bluntly, the media missed the story. In the end, a huge number of American voters wanted something different. And although these voters shouted and screamed it, most journalists just weren’t listening. They didn’t get it.

坦率的说，媒体错过了这个故事。在最后，许多美国人想要一些不一样的东西。虽然许多选民为此大喊尖叫，但大多数记者并没有去听。他们错过了它。

They didn’t get that the huge, enthusiastic crowds at Donald Trump’s rallies would really translate into that many votes. They couldn’t believe that the America they knew could embrace someone who mocked a disabled man, bragged about sexually assaulting women, and spouted misogyny, racism and anti-Semitism.

他们没有在意唐纳德川普的集会上巨大而热情并能转化为大量选票的人群。他们不相信美国人民会拥抱一个嘲笑残疾人，吹嘘性骚扰女性，喷洒厌恶女性观点，种族主义和反犹太的人。

It would be too horrible. So, therefore, according to some kind of magical thinking, it couldn’t happen.

这太可怕了。所以根据某种神奇的思维，这不会发生。

Journalists — college-educated, urban and, for the most part, liberal — are more likely than ever before to live and work in New York City and Washington, D.C., or on the West Coast. And although we touched down in the big red states for a few days, or interviewed some coal miners or unemployed autoworkers in the Rust Belt, we didn’t take them seriously. Or not seriously enough.

记者们 — 受过大学教育，城市化且最重要的一点，自由 — 比之前生活在纽约和华盛顿特区或西海岸的的都要自由。而且虽然我们降落在了大红色区域（支持川普区？）了几天，或是采访了一些衰退工业区的矿工或失业工人，但我们没有认真在意他们（的意见），或不够认真。

And Trump — who called journalists scum and corrupt — alienated us so much that we couldn’t see what was before our eyes. We just kept checking our favorite prognosticating sites and feeling reassured, even though everyone knows that poll results are not votes.

另外川普 — 这个称记者们渣滓与腐败的人 — 如此疏远我们以致我们看不到眼前的事物。我们只是不断检查我们喜欢的预测网站并感觉安心，尽管每个人都知道这些投票结果不是真的选票。

After all, you never know who’ll show up to vote, especially when votes are being suppressed as never before. And even the most Clinton-leaning prognosticators allowed for some chance of a Trump win.

毕竟你永远不知道谁会去投票，尤其是选票呈现前所未有的压倒性。即使最挺希拉里的预测家都认可川普有些机会赢。

But no one seemed to believe it in their bones. We would have President Clinton, went the journalistic conventional wisdom, and although she would be flawed, she would be a known quantity. There was a kind of comfort there.

但没有一个人发自骨髓的相信这点（川普会胜利）。我们将会有希拉里总统，按照记者的传统智慧，虽然她会有些缺点，但已知她是广受支持的。这是一种安慰。

Make no mistake. This is an epic fail. And although eating crow is never appealing, we’ll be digesting feathers and beaks in the next weeks and months — and maybe years.

不客气的说这是一次史诗级失败。而且虽然吃乌鸦一点也不吸引人，但我们会在接下来的几周，几月乃至几年内消化掉羽毛和鸟嘴。

译者注：eat crow直译为吃乌鸦，意思是向人承认自己错了。

The strange thing, of course, is that the media helped to give Trump his chance.

奇怪的是，确实有媒体帮了川普给了他机会。

Did journalists create Trump? Of course not — they don’t have that kind of power. But they helped him tremendously, with huge amounts of early, unfiltered exposure in the months leading up to the Republican primary season. With ridiculous emphasis put on every development about Hillary Clinton’s email practices, including the waffling of FBI Director James B. Comey.

记者创造了川普？当然不是 — 他们没有这种力量。但他们给了他很大帮助，他们在很早时候，就在几个月内便爆出了未经过滤的民主党初选情报。尤其是荒谬的希拉里邮件门事件发展，包括联邦调查局局长James B. Comey的胡扯。

I’m no fan of Peter Thiel, the billionaire who put Gawker out of business by bankrolling a lawsuit by Hulk Hogan, the professional wrestler. In fact, I find him appalling.

我不是Peter Thiel的粉丝，这位亿万富翁赞助专业摔跤手Hulk Hogan去诉讼，搞垮了Gawker。事实上我发现他真是可怕。

译者注：硅谷风投大亨Peter Thiel（曾资助扎克伯格建立Facebook）在2007年被八卦网站Gawker爆出出柜，愤怒之下资助被该网站爆料的人去诉讼，摔跤手Hulk Hogan因被爆出与朋友妻子的色情录像带而求偿3100万美元，Gawker因此另被判罚赔偿1.4亿美元，经过这场长达4年的官司后，2016年6月Gawker宣布破产。这作者这么说果然是在兔死狐悲吗。

But when he spoke recently at the National Press Club, he said something that struck me as quite perceptive about Donald Trump.

但他最近在国家新闻俱乐部演讲时，让我惊讶的是他关于川普的话颇有见地。

“The media is always taking Trump literally. It never takes him seriously, but it always takes him literally,” Thiel said. Journalists wanted to know exactly how he would deport that many undocumented immigrants, or exactly how Trump would rid the world of the Islamic State. We wanted details.

“媒体总是从字面上看川普，而从没把他放在心上，只是在字面上看他。”Thiel说记者其实只想知道他是如何驱逐那些大量的非法移民，或是如何摆脱伊斯兰世界。我们想要（这些事情的）细节。

But a lot of voters think the opposite way: They take Trump seriously but not literally.

但许多选民想法是相反的：他们认真看待川普而不是从字面上。

They realize, Thiel said, that Trump doesn’t really plan to build a wall. “What they hear is, ‘We’re going to have a saner, more sensible immigration policy.’ ”

他们意识到了，Thiel如是说，他们意识到川普并非真的打算建一堵墙。他们听到的是“我们将会有一个更加理智，更加合理的移民政策”。

Trump, quite apparently, captured the anger that Americans were feeling about issues such as trade and immigration.

很显然川普捕获了美国人对于贸易和移民问题的愤怒情绪。

And although many journalists and many news organizations did stories about the frustration and disenfranchisement of these Americans, we did not take them seriously enough.

虽然许多记者和新闻媒体注意到了关于这些经受挫折和被漠视的美国人的故事，但我们并未足够在意。

And although we journalists try to portray ourselves as cynical sometimes, or hard-bitten, we can also be idealistic, even naive.

虽然我们记者有时候试图把自己描述成愤世嫉俗或身经百战坚韧不拔，但我们也可以是理想主义，甚至NAIVE（幼稚）的。

We wanted to believe in a country where decency and civility still mattered, and where someone so crude, spiteful and intemperate could never be elected — because America was better than that.

我们想要相信在这样一个国家 — 尊重与礼仪依旧重要，而粗鲁，恶毒与放纵的人从不会被选上 — 因为美国远比此伟大。

I can fault journalists for a lot of things, but I can’t fault us for that.

我可以因许多事责怪记者们，但不包括这个（川普被选上）。

另附一些华盛顿邮报的新闻标题

时间：11月9日上午8时39分

标题：Trump voters will not like what happens next 

       川普支持者不会喜欢接下来发生的事情

概括：怒斥低教育文盲们选了个粗暴的智障上台，民主党万岁，你们等着瞧美利坚药丸。

时间：11月9日上午9点54分

标题：‘The Simpsons’ predicted a Trump presidency 16 years ago. The writer explains why.

      《辛普森一家》16年前就预测川普当总统。作者解释为什么。

概括：川普符合本剧，作者表示我选他是为了讽刺，根本不觉得这孙贼能赢。  

时间：11月9日上午4点43分

标题：How Donald Trump broke the old rules of politics — and won the White House

      川普如何能打破陈旧的政治规则 — 赢取白宫的

概括：劣迹斑斑的花花公子如何伪装欺骗了愚昧大众，打脸爱国的精英人士们，你们这帮人啊真是无可救药。

时间：11月9日上午4点26分

标题：The crowd yelled ‘Lock her up!’ Then Trump thanked Clinton for ‘service to our country.’

       人群大喊“把她抓起来！”然后川普为“服务了我们的祖国”向希拉里表示感谢。

概括：尽管川普一直说感谢希拉里，但他的支持者一直叫嚣抓捕希拉里，川普此人狡诈多变，之前承诺的都不再提了，连穆斯林都支持他。

时间：11月10日上午2点29分

标题：The Latest: Thousands march in Chicago to protest Trump
       最新：芝加哥千人进军反川普

概括：天下苦川普久矣

时间：11月10日下午6点42分

标题：Pollsters and data gurus look over the wreckage of their election failures
       民意预测者和数据大师们检查他们失败预测的残骸

概括：我们失败了，但不是我们媒体无能，是那帮预测者过多着眼于受教育白人巴拉巴拉

另附川普胜利后主流媒体们的态度

The Washington Post头条

标题：Trump’s bold promises could face obstacles

       川普大胆预测可能会面临障碍

TIME头条

标题：Anti-Trump Protests Swell

       反川普抗议飙升

CNN头条

标题：Thousands join anti-Trump protests across US

       全美数千人加入反川普抗议

       More Americans voted for Clinton, but Trump won

       更多美国人投给希拉里，但川普赢了

NBC头条

标题：More Voters Chose Clinton, But Trump Will Be President

       更多选民选择希拉里，但川普将成为总统

       'He Is Not My President': Donald Trump Inspires Thousands to Protest in Streets Across U.S.

       “他不是我的总统”：唐纳德川普激起数千人在全美街头抗议

FOX头条

标题：'NOT MY PRESIDENT!': Intense protests breakout across US over Trump election, dozens arrested

       “不是我的总统！”：川普被选举激起全美激烈抗议，数十人被捕

附图

川普发布演说



川普支持者在胜选后兴奋不已



反川普人士走上街头





反对者焚烧川普头像



《辛普森一家》关于川普上台的画面




nemy1000
12:54 AM GMT+0800
The media was a huge reason why Trump got elected, even false stories such as Hillary is winning in a land slide and Trump's campaign has imploded and he will give up soon. Real and honest news organizations don't exist anymore and it's incredibly sad. A lot of American people aren't stupid, they realize just how phony the media is now a days and are extremely fed up with it. If the liberal media wasn't so hateful and insulting and reported the truth, actually followed the motto love trumps hate instead of "we are the media we just hate, hate and hate and run false stories if you don't agree with us." Then this election may have turned out differently.

为何川普能赢媒体是一大原因，甚至连希拉里大胜，川普竞选已经崩溃将要退出的假消息都编的出来。真实诚信的媒体消失了，这真让人不敢相信且令人悲伤。美国人民并不傻，他们意识到了现在媒体的虚假并十分厌恶。如果自由媒体不是那么可恶，辱骂并报道真相，对川普遵循爱恨分明的座右铭而不是“我们是媒体，如果你不同意我们就只是讨厌，讨厌和讨厌并抛出假故事”的话。接下来的选举结果可能会不一样。

Brian Kent
12:05 AM GMT+0800
The most astonishing revelation of this election was the indirect route by which Trump managed to completely erode people's confidence in the media. People who listened to the media reports--essentially a distillation of Clinton's best talking points and Trump's worst--voted for the underdog. It's the classic story we hear over and over again in our steady diet of mainstream movies. 
The majority of people who voted clearly did not vote after directly experiencing either candidate and sincerely making their own mind up. They had to make the decision based on metadata fed them by the media, and there was plenty of reason to consider the media suspect: after all, the new custom has become to report on the most outrageous eyeball-catching comment.  
The people elected Trump, but they apparently did so with a feeling that the "checks and balances" written by our forefathers two and a half centuries ago would be enough to prevent this upstart from upending the country entirely. People can't be said to be niave when they don't sincerely have any choice.

这次选举最让人震惊的启示是川普当选间接的完全削弱了人们对于媒体的信心。人们听了媒体的报道 — 本质上来说就是希拉里好，川普糟 — 投票给失败者。这是我们在主流电影里一次又一次听说过的经典故事。
大多数选民没有直接见识过任何一个候选人也没有发自内心的为他们的想法而投票。他们下决定的依据是媒体为给他们的数据，并有充分理由去考虑媒体的怀疑：毕竟已习惯报道最吸引人眼球的评论。
人民投票给川普，但他们显然没有这种感觉即两个半世纪以前我们的先人写下的“制衡”— 这足以防止暴发户完全颠覆国家。不能说人们naive幼稚因为他们并不是真诚的选择。

ophelia3
11/9/2016 11:47 PM GMT+0800
Brava to Sullavan, who seems to be the only writer to do what writers should do first - listen. And listen to people outside their own milieu. 
Ignoring the Democratic base, ignoring the anger of the working and middle classes at the outsourcing and insourcing of jobs, ignoring the anger at globalization and corporatization because of some theory that disaffected Republicans and minorities would make up the loss was a stupid strategy.  
It did not work. The Acela elites did not see this coming because no one they know would ever vote for a crude piece of work like Trump and no one they know cares about outsourcing and insourcing of jobs or uncontrolled immigration.  
Tragic stupidity.

不错，Sullavan。你似乎是作家中唯一做了作家应该做的 — 倾听。去听取他们所处环境外人们的声音。
忽视民意基础，忽视工人阶层和中产阶层对于外包与回归工作的愤怒，忽视对于全球化和私企化的怒火。因为一些理论那些愤懑的共和党人与少数派会弥补一个愚蠢策略的损失。
它不起作用。Acela的精英们没有看到接下来要发生的因为他们知道绝不会为川普投票，而且他们中没有人在乎外包和回归工作又或是失控的移民。
愚蠢的悲剧。

brewstercounty
11/9/2016 8:37 PM GMT+0800
I think a lot of people voted for Trump because it was a vote against big media and their biased, unbalanced coverage. The Washington Post turned itself into a propaganda arm of the Democrat Party, and that actually helped Trump to win. Please go back to being an honest broker of what's happening in this country.

我认为很多人投川普的票是因为这也是在投票反对大媒体有偏见和失衡的报道。华盛顿邮报把自己变成了民主党的宣传工具，这实际上有助于川普赢得胜利。请变回以前那个对这个国家发生的事诚实报道的中立者。

—david_gaithersburgs
11/9/2016 8:39 PM GMT+0800
They need to turn back seven decades to get there.

他们需要倒回去七十年才能变回去。

jtssigman
11/9/2016 3:52 PM GMT+0800
This reminds me of 1980, when this paper and others in the DC establishment were convinced America would never elect an actor over a Washington insider... There is a very clear disconnect between the conversation this newspaper is having with its readers and those the rest of America is having...

这样我想起了1980年，那时这家报纸和其他华盛顿特区的保守派深信美国绝不会选出一个演员之类的内幕...这家报纸的评论与它的读者间有着明显的脱节而且美国的其他人有...

译者注：此处指罗纳德·威尔逊·里根，美国第40任总统，曾为演员。

Dee Laura
11/9/2016 3:12 PM GMT+0800
The Hillary "home computer server" was such a slap at the public and the press, designed to hide wrongdoings from the press and FOIA from the first day of her job as Secretary of State. Every working person knows that you can't do work from a personal email, so every voter knew in their heart that Hillary was corrupt to the core.

希拉里的“邮件门”对于公众和媒体来说是如此一记耳光，从她开始就任国务卿的第一天起就掩饰新闻过失及信息自由法案。美国工作过的人都知道你不能用个人邮件办公，所以每个选民心中都知道希拉里是烂到底了。

Sean47
11/9/2016 2:58 PM GMT+0800
Margaret, this media's failure is an indictment of the lack of ideological diversity in our newsrooms. Period.

Margaret，这次媒体的失败是对我们的新闻编辑部和期刊思维缺乏多样性的控诉。

—FallsChurchTaxpayer
11/9/2016 6:56 PM GMT+0800
I think another facet of the problem is a lack of generational diversity. Reporters are generally so young, very intelligent to be sure but so inexperienced. This is probably a function of the economics of journalism today, but there is too little wisdom in newsrooms today.

我觉得这个问题的另一方面是缺乏多样性的世代。记者们通常很年轻，必然很聪明但缺乏经验。现在的新闻可能很有经济价值，但是缺乏智慧。

Austrolib
11/9/2016 2:51 PM GMT+0800
The media utterly disgraced themselves with their active campaigning against Trump and I'm not a Trump supporter.

媒体不光彩的积极打击特朗普竞选，我不是川普支持者。

—Zman45
11/9/2016 2:52 PM GMT+0800
I didn't vote for him, and you're right the mainstream media has been absolutely ridiculous.

我没有投票给他，而且你是对的主流媒体已经变得完全荒谬不堪了。