如与美发生贸易战，中国真的会像纸老虎一样崩溃吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：统而言之-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Is China really just a paper tiger that will collapse if a trade war develops with America?

如与美发生贸易战，中国真的会像纸老虎一样崩溃吗？


-------------译者：统而言之-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Ray Comeau Been to China many years now living full time for 6 years.
Ray Comeau（多年前到中国，目前常住中国6年）
Written Dec 13
A2A
NO.

中国不会崩溃。

The US has tried much worse with other countries much less integrated onto the world stage. Remember Cuba a small island where the US embargo lasted 50 years (?). Did Cuba fold? No. Cuba continued and created a relatively successful socialist nation with a medical system for all people high literacy rates and according to the UN developed a high Human Development Index (HDI) in line with much more advanced countries.

美国越是同其他国家交恶，就越难站在世界大国之巅。想想古巴，一个小岛国，美国对其实施贸易禁令长达50年，古巴完了吗？没有。古巴仍旧在发展，并且创造了一个相对成功的社会主义国家，拥有全民医疗体系，公民保持了高识字率，按照联合国开发的高人类发展指数的标准来看，古巴和很多发达国家一个水平线上。
Do we know Russia? Has all the western imposed sanctions against Russia made it go away? Does Russia continue to exert power in the Middle East? What US intelligence believe about Russia and the presidential election?

大家知道俄罗斯吧？是不是所有西方国家都对俄罗斯实施贸易制裁？俄罗斯是不是还继续掌控中东地区？美国情报机关还不是认为俄罗斯和美国总统大选有猫腻？
The worst case scenario of a trade war will be a worldwide recession probably in line with the recession of 2008. China contributes more to world GDP growth then the combined growth by the US EU and Japan.

贸易战最坏的记过就是全球经济衰退，可能类似2008年世界金融危机那样的衰退。中国对世界GDP增长的贡献高于美国、欧盟和日本的增长之和。



China is the worlds biggest car market by volume. Most car manufactures operate plants in China. GM sells more cars in China then in the US. It is a critical market for VW Audi Mercedes among foreign car manufacturers.

从数量上来说，中国拥有全球最大的汽车市场。大部分汽车生产商在中国设厂。在中国，通用汽车卖的汽车比在美国多。在国外汽车制造商比如大众、奥迪、奔驰看来，中国也是一个重要市场。

-------------译者：摩天轮0801-审核者：BXHin1995------------

China accounts for nearly half of the global luxury market makes 90% of personal computers and smartphones sold in the West plus is the dominant manufacturer of many other things.
It is the world’s biggest market for sales of commercial aircraft with projected sales of $1 trillion over the next 20 years. Boeing and Airbus are investing billions.
Boeing To Build Its First Offshore Plane Factory In China As Ex-Im Bank Withers
As Airbus starts work on second China factory Boeing remains hush on its China plans - Puget Sound Business Journal
Japanese companies have been offshoring software development to China since early 2000. There are hundreds of Chinese software development companies producing software solely for Japanese industry.
So start a trade war and see what happens.
PS - Manufacturing jobs are not returning to the US. Whatever is not or will be made in China is manufactured in India Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam etc.

中国拥有近一半的全球奢侈品市场，个人电脑和智能手机在西方的销售占比达到90%，组多其他行业也有诸多主导厂商。
它是世界上最大的商用飞机销售市场，预计未来20年销售额将达到1兆美元.。波音和空客正在投资数十亿美元。
新闻：中国进出口银行势弱，波音将在中国建立首个海外工厂。
新闻：普吉特湾商业杂志报道，空客开始着手第二家中国工厂，而波音依旧对自己的中国计划保持沉默。
自21世纪年初，日本软件开发企业就外包给中国，有数百家中国软件开发公司专门为日本工业生产软件.。
所以一旦贸易战开始，看看会发生什么。
PS -制造业就业机会不会回到美国的。不管现在制造于中国还是未来制造于印度、泰国、孟加拉国、越南等。

-------------译者：Linsanity2018-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Peter Topping Eurasians on the bounce back across the Asia Pacific
Written Dec 13
No one knows it is all theory its all on paper and the metrics on both sides of the Pacific for a successful out come of a trade war or real war are different.
What would be the obxtive of a trade war what out come would you consider a success? The people likely to suffer in an extended trade war are the poor the process workers and workers in export orientated industries.
China wont start a trade war with the USA why would it? It has what it wants now and there are down side risks of a trade war for the slower transitioning economy. The USA has proved hapless and ineffectual over the East Sea and South China Sea. China is all over the US in Asia Africa and increasingly in the Middle East and Central Asia the pivot to Asia has been tardy in the extreme. China might not shy away from a short sharpe military engagement (it is argued that many militant members of the PLAN/PLA want this test of strength to occur). China only has to win once in the Asia Pac America has to win every time.
In America the poor don’t usually vote so “who cares” from Trump et als perspective but high unemployment brings huge street crime drug and alcohol abuse which conservatives love. The conservative side can then campaign on “Law and Order” or “Tough on Crime” . The incarceration industry (one of America’s largest corporate sectors as they have more people per 100000 of the population in jail than any other OECD nation) love it as well a trade war means more military spending so the arms industry love it too.

没有人知道，这些都只是纸面上的理论，而太平洋两岸的双方对于贸易战或真正战争中怎样的结果才算胜利也有着不同的衡量标准。
贸易战的目的是什么？你认为什么样的结果才算是成功的？
在一场旷日持久的贸易战中，最有可能受到伤害的是那些穷人、从事加工工作以及出口导向型行业的工人。
中国并不会发起贸易战。他们何必要这样做呢？
中国目前顺心如意，而一场贸易战则会给中国正在放缓和转型中的经济带来负面的风险。
美国在中国东海和南海方面已被证明是无能为力的。
中国对美国为所欲为，在亚洲是如此，在非洲是如此，在中东和中亚也是愈加如此，美国“重返亚洲”的步伐则十分迟缓。
中国可能并不会回避一场短暂而剧烈的军事交锋（据说解放军中有许多人希望打一仗，以检验自身的实力）。
中国只需要在亚太地区打赢一次，而美国则必须次次都打赢，无法承受任何失败。
美国的穷人常常不去投票，所以特朗普那帮人对于他们的态度就是“管他们呢”。
然而，高涨的失业率带来了街头犯罪以及毒品、酒精的泛滥。
保守派们喜欢这些，因为这样他们就可以打着“法律与秩序”和“严打犯罪”的旗号来竞选了。
监狱行业会喜欢这种状况（由于美国每十万人口的监禁率高于经济合作与发展组织中的其他任何国家，监狱行业是美国最大的企业领域之一）。
贸易战意味着更多的军费开支，所以军工业也会喜欢的。

-------------译者：剑雨-审核者：lybrel------------

In China the poor the process worker the rural urban migrant worker does not have a voice or a unx and if he or she makes trouble they can be re educated or detained so they are a manageable issue for the CPC. A centrally planned economy where most of the huge dept is owned internally can mitigate the effects of a trade war for quite sometime in a way that a capitalist economy can’t. A centrally planned economy with tightly controlled media can give a State sanctioned view of the trade war as external aggression to the people in order to rally patriotism and mitigate against the effects more easily. In China SOE (which make up more than 40% of companies) can and will respond to the directions of the CPC to increase production lower prices dump good in US markets etc so China can leverage its State Power with greater ease than the US until the pain level gets to a point where Uncle Sam feels it.

在中国，贫穷的流水线工人，来自农村的城市移民工人没有发言权或工会而且如果他或她制造麻烦，他们可以被教育或拘留，所以他们对共产党来说是一个可以解决的问题。一个中央计划经济，它的绝大部分是被国内所拥有的，可以用一种资本主义经济不能使用的方法在某种程度上来缓和贸易战的影响。一个中央计划经济配上牢牢控制的媒体可以给出一个关于贸易战的国家认可的观点，即为了凝聚爱国主义而把它视为外部侵略并且更加轻松地缓和了影响。 在中国，国有企业（占所有企业的40%以上）能够并将会服从共产党的指挥来提高产量，降低价格，在美国市场倾销等等。所以中国能比美国更容易调动国家力量来使山姆大叔感到疼。

Struggle hardship and death are a more recent part of the Chinese narrative even people in their 50s can remember the hungry times of the 60s and the dangers of the cultural revolution The Cheeto elect and America would be unwise to test the mettle of the Chinese Grasshopper.

艰苦奋斗和死亡是中国历史最近的一部分，即使是50多岁的人也能够记得饥饿的六十年代和文革的危险。The Cheeto elect 和美国去测试中国蝗虫们的勇气将是不明智的。

-------------译者：少皞一世-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Leo Zach lives in Shanghai
Written Thu
China may not be “a paper tiger” and it may not collapse completely but it will become unrecognizable as the China we’ve known over the last 20 years if a trade war develops with America a really nasty trade war that is.

中国可能并不是纸老虎，同时也不会完全崩溃。但是如果中国与美国发生了很严重的贸易战，它将变的面目全非，不再像我们过去20年所了解的那样。

China’s exports to the US are about 18%–22% of its total exports (depending on whether we count HK or not). If we throw the EU into the mix that rises to a staggering 35%-40%. If we add exports to Japan S Korea And India (countries that the US has leverage over) that rises to 50%-53% of total exports! 【China Exports | 1983-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News 】Therefore CHINA is DEPENDENT on the US and EU and their closest allies for a big part of its very own GDP growth (exports account for about 22%-28% of China’s GDP as of 2015 again depending on how we count HK) 【China Exports percent of GDP - data chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com】

中国对美国的出口占其出口总额的18%~22% (这取决于是否将香港计入其中)，如果把对欧盟也算上，那么就会上升到惊人的35%~40%。如果再加上日韩和印度（这些都是受美国影响的国家），那就占到出口总额的50%~53%！[China Exports | 1983-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News] 所以中国GDP增长很大的一部分都依赖于美国、欧盟和它俩的盟友们。（截止到2015年，中国的出口占GDP的22%~28%，也要看是否将香港计入其中）[China Exports percent of GDP - data chart | TheGlobalEconomy.com]

（译者注：文中中括号部分为评论者数据来源网站）

Note that this 22%-28% is the direct contribution to GDP. The indirect contribution (the extra jobs and investment that these exports create) is additional.

还有一点要注意，这个22%~28%是出口值对GDP的直接贡献。间接贡献（出口所创造的额外的就业与投资）是另外计算的。

 -------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bob Reisner My lixedin profile: https://goo.gl/493WHc
Written Fri
Yes. Seriously YES! The core assumption is that we are only discussing a trade war AND the USA has competent business oriented leaders that will smartly prosecute the trade war.

是的。我认真地说：是的！核心假设是：我们只讨论一场贸易战，并且，美国拥有称职的有生意头脑的领袖们可以巧妙地发起贸易战。

There are two key statistics. First is that the USA imports about $500 Billion from China. Second is that the total exports of China are around $2 Trillion or about 20% of the $9+ Trillion Chinese GDP.

这里是两个关键的统计数据。首先，美国从中国进口约5000亿美元。其次，中国的出口总额约2万亿美元，即占中国9万亿美元的国内生产总值的20%左右。

So how might the USA go about a trade war?

那么美国可能怎样发动贸易战？

[1] Exporting to the USA is a privilege granted by the USA it’s not a right. So the USA can impose a 100% ban on Chinese imports. This is the first action.

1. 出口到美国是美国授予的特权，而不是一项自身的权利。所以美国可以对从中国进口采取100%的禁令。这是第一步。

[2] Exporting to the USA is a privilege granted by the USA it’s not a right. So the USA can impose a 100% ban on imports from ANY country that trades with China. This is the second action.

2. 出口到美国是美国授予的特权，而不是一项自身的权利。所以美国可以对任何与中国有贸易往来的国家的进口采取100%的禁令。这是第二步。

[3] Any country that has a security agreement with the USA must cease trade with China if the security agreement is to continue. This is the third action.

3. 任何与美国签署了安全条约的国家如果要续签安全条约的话，必须停止和中国的贸易。这是第三步。

[2] and [3] above will make at least another $500B in Chinese exports disappear.

上述2和3会让中国另外5000亿美元的出口消失。

So within 12 months more than 10% of the Chinese economy disappears. And we are only getting started.

所以在12个月内，超过10%的中国经济就会消失。而我们仅仅才开始。

-------------译者：moriarty4869-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

[4] With the above the Chinese currency collapses. While China would due it’s currency to maintain some level of competitiveness it won’t solve the problem. The ‘game’ is now not the lowest price but does the country of manufacture have access the the USA/western market. With inflation bank collapses from non payment of Real Estate and Manufacturing debt and significantly higher social expenses China will begin to look inward in an attempt to stabilize the economy and stabilize society. New exports activities will be modest locking in the economic collapse.

有上边这些，人民币就崩溃了。虽然中国会利用货币来保证一定的竞争力，但这不会从根本上解决问题。现在的“游戏”不再是最低价格，而是这个国家有通向美国/西方市场的渠道吗？随着由房地产违约、制造业债务和巨大的社会成本引起的通胀银行的崩溃，中国会开始寻找办法稳定经济和社会。但新的出口活动会在某种程度上被经济崩溃拖累。

[5] And it gets worse. With the collapse of the currency AND the absence of dollar generating exports China will find oil and raw material imports very expensive and likely only available COD (which increases dollar outflow). High import costs make export manufacturing very uneconomic. So the crisis gets worse.

然后，情况变的更糟。随着货币的崩溃和出口的疲软，中国的原材料和原油进口成本会上升，并且只能用美元现金支付进口（这进一步加剧了美元的外流）。原材料进口价格的上升挤压了出口利润。所以危机会变得更糟糕。

[6] The final act is to outlaw the use of any major western currency (dollar euro yen etc) for the settlement of any Chinese debt or material purchase that occurs after the start of the Trade War. This forces China to use scare dollars to pay off maturing debt and makes imports even more expensive and logistically awkward to obtain. For example tough to pay for the needed oil and the western ships needed to carry the product.

最后的措施会是禁止中国在债务和原材料购买方面使用一切外币（如美元，欧元，日元等）。这会迫使中国使用本已稀缺的美元去继续支付债务，并使得中国的进口成本进一步上升，直至进口难以为继。比如，中国无力支付需要的石油和相应的物流成本。

So we have a China that directly loses at least 10% of the economy. Every dollar in export likely provides several dollars to the internal economy — wages rents etc. are local expenditures. So it’s likely another 20% reduction (at a minimum) in internal economic activity occurs. Which creates a snowball effect. Stores close apartment owners default government jobs disappear etc. Something worse than the USA depression of the 1930’s.

所以，我们有了一个至少直接损失10%经济的中国。而用于出口的每一美元都会为国内经济提供数美元（货币的乘数效应），比如货币用于支付工资和房租。所以，这会另外导致中国20%的国内经济衰减。这就造成了滚雪球效应：商店关门、地产商违约，政府工作消失等。这比美国20世纪30年代的大萧条还要糟糕。

With no way out. Society cohesion and the Party structure may be compromised possibly terminally. Think USSR 1991 - 1997. Collapse.

这种问题没办法解决。社会凝聚力和政府结构会最终崩坏。想想1991到1997年的苏联。

-------------译者：moriarty4869-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

So how did it work out for the USA? No big deal. A couple of trillion added to the debt (maybe) and some geopolitical issues but otherwise no real disruption. Here is why:

然后，美国要如何应对呢？很简单：只需继续增加数百亿美元的债务、引发一些地缘政治问题但不导致冲突就可以了。原因如下：

[1] We don’t need anything from China. Some transitional bumps but EVERYTHING that came from China can be sourced elsewhere.

【1】 我们不需要中国的任何东西。会有一些贸易摩擦，但任何来自中国的商品都可以从其他地方获得。

[2] We get to spread around the rest of the world about $1 Trillion of new export potential ($500B to the USA and $500B from our Allies). World merchandise exports x/China are around $14T so the world x/China gets a sudden 8% boost in exports. Boom times.

【2】 我们为世界腾出了大约1兆美元的出口空间 （5000亿美元给美国，5000亿美元给我们的盟友）。 没有中国的世界贸易大概在14兆美元，所以除去中国的话，我们有8%的增长潜力。繁荣期来了。

[3] The USA will have to help countries around the world with the initial impacts of losing China based manufacturing assets and the related export volumes. Same with retailers dependent on Chinese exports in the transition period. Ditto for those who sold resources to China. These are opportunities in some cases and problems to be solved in other cases. Just time and money.

【3】 美国可能需要去帮助世界上的其他国家渡过由于缺少中国生产和出口而产生的冲击，例如那些依赖销售中国制造的零售商和向中国出口原料的销售商。这些既是问题，也是机会。解决它们只需要一些钱和时间。

Ok it’s actually a bit more complicated (like Chinese assets outside China will be frozen and used to pay non Chinese holders of assets locked in China) but the above are the major lines of attack and they will work.

事实上，事情可能更复杂一些 （例如中国的海外资产可能被冻结，并被用以支付那些因资产在中国而受损失的人），但上边这些是主要的攻击手段，他们会起作用的。

But surely China can do something. Nope. Remember at the top of this answer we limited this to a trade war. Without war China is toast.

中国当然也会做一些反抗。但请记住在一开始我们假设对抗仅局限于贸易战。如果没有战争的话，中国就完蛋了。

-------------译者：罗兰的朵夫-审核者：爱猫的男人------------

Now a moment off topic. A full scale trade war will leave China a very troubled place with nukes and an army. People backed into a corner sometimes act irrationally and not in their self interest. A lot of us were very surprised that the USSR imploded without some serious military or nuclear adventure. There is no rule that says it always works out this way.

先说点题外话。全面贸易战争会让中国这个拥有核武器和军队的国家一片混乱。人们有时退回暗处举止疯狂，不为自身利益考虑。尽管苏联解体没有通过武力和核武器冲突，很多人对此十分吃惊。但并没有任何法则能保证事情往往能和平解决。

In real life the best trade war would b a 5 or 10 year plan to put pressure on China to do what ever it was we wanted them to do that caused us to start the trade war. As the trade war increases over time the broad swath of economically privileged Chinese will come to understand the end game and will cause China to take those actions necessary to resolve the dispute in favor of the USA….the safety and wealth of the rich will trump the state in most cases.

回到现实，最好的贸易战是一场5至10年的长久战，我们发动这场贸易战，对中国施压并让其臣服于美利坚。因为贸易战愈演愈烈，大量经济优越的中国人会想结束游戏，导致中国同意美做法，采取必要行动解决争议...多数情况下，富人的安全和财富会赢得局面。

And finally remember this is an Answer to a question not a statement of my support for a trade war.

最后，以上仅是针对问题的回复而已，并不代表个人支持贸易战。

Is China really just a paper tiger that will collapse if a trade war develops with America? YES!

如与美发生贸易战，中国真的会像纸老虎一样崩溃吗？是的！

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Iain Russell
Written Dec 13
They’re not paper. Pleather maybe. Possibly suede. They’re not as strong as they like to pretend they are but that doesn’t mean that they’re without options.

他们不是纸老虎。可能是仿皮老虎。也许是麂皮老虎。他们不象伪装的那么强大，但不意味着他们别无选择。

A trade war would cripple them in a way that the US would better survive however. And if it escalated they’d be cutting their own throats. They have far less hard and soft power so raising the stakes just gives them more to lose.

不管怎样，贸易战可以用一种让美国更好地生存下去而严重削弱他们的方式进行。如果贸易战升级的话，他们会灭亡。他们拥有更少的硬实力和软实力，所以抬高筹码只会给他们造成更多的损失.。

-------------译者：摩天轮0801-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Jack Wegrich History enthusiast since I was 5 gamer since 6 community manager since 12
Written Dec 15
No. hell no. If anything America is a paper tiger that will collapse if we get into a trade war with them.
Our bigest (fastest growing) industry is tech. We make all of our devices overseas. You do the math. Prices here would double if not more. Prices there would drop massively.
And before someone asks…..
A ground war with China would be the largest millitary humiliation in the history of armed conflict. The Chinese millitary is designed from the ground up to fight a geostrategic conflict with us. Our millitary is designed to kill sheepherders. Both are incredibly effective at what they do.
And before someone starts talking about “Muh allies” let me remind you what other countries think of the United States. China on the other hand has a near spotless record.

不会，当然不会崩溃。如果我们和他们进行贸易战，美国就会崩溃，尽显纸老虎本色。
我们最大的（增长最快）产业是我们的科技。我们让我们所有的设备前往海外。你自己算算。
在美国生产的价格会增加一倍，而在海外生产的价格将大幅下降。
在有些人探讨这些问题之前我想声明：与中国的全面战争将是前所未有的规模。中国军队正在崛起，目标是同我们进行地缘政治斗争。
而我们军队的目标是用来杀牧羊人。两国的所作所为都非常有效。
之前有人开始谈论“盟友”，让我提醒你其他国家是怎么看美国的。从另一方面来说，中国有一个接近完美的记录。

-------------译者：摩天轮0801-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Fredrik Payedar lives in Gothenburg Sweden
upxed Dec 15 R26; Upvoted by Joe Lee live in China for 27 years
China is not a paper tiger in any way. China is an industrial giant like the world has never seen except perhaps for the most advanced types of industry but they are trying to develop that too.
China has three major weaknesses however;
Inability to innovate. They need to invest more in education and bring down corruption to grow in this area. Before anybody says anything I know that China already has one of the highest numbers of patent per capita in the world but these are mostly new type of mouse trap innovations or even same kind of mousetrap with minor modification that probably wouldn’t be patentable in most other countries.
Lack of natural resources( in relation to their huge population). This means that they have to sell manufactured goods in order to buy these resources competing on a very tough global market.
An ageing population which will probably slow down growth in itself in the future.
Also Asian economies seems to be cannibalizing on each other. First Japan came in certain industries then Korea grew in the same areas competing with the Japanese and partly taking over their role then China started growing partly in the same areas taking over some industries from the Koreans and now probably India will do the same to China. This is probably a result of very fast growth fueled by foreign investment rather than internal innovation plus the allocation of that capital being steered into certain areas by the government. The latter can create huge growth in short time but also leads to bubbles and inefficient investment in the long run.

中国从哪个角度来说都不是纸老虎。除了最尖端的领域，中国是世界的工业巨头，他们也正在试图发展尖端领域。
但中国有三大弱点：
1.缺乏创新。他们需要加大对教育的投入，减少腐败的增长.。在被别人反对之前，我先声明：我知道中国已经是世界人均专利数最多的国家，
  但这些大多是新型小发明（直译：捕鼠器）的创新，甚至同一种专利细微的修改，可能不会在其他大多数国家都获得专利的发明。
2.缺乏自然资源（与他们庞大的人口有关）。这意味着他们必须在一个非常艰难的全球市场上通过出售制成品以购买这些资源的方式竞争.。
  人口老龄化可能会减缓未来的增长。
3.而且亚洲经济似乎互相蚕食着对方。首先，日本在某些制造产业领先，韩国在同一产业发展并与日本竞争，在韩国部分接管日本的角色后，
 中国开始在同一领域发展，接管韩国人的产业。而现在印度又在对中国做同样的事情。
 这可能是外国资本投资推动快速增长，而非国家内部创新和政府资金转移分配的结果.。
 后者可以在短期内创造巨大的增长，但也会导致经济泡沫和长期的低效投资。

-------------译者：摩天轮0801-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Still China is not toothless and they are trying to find the resources they need outside of the western sphere of interest in places such as Russia south america and Africa…. with mixed success.
At the end of the day though China still does need America(and the EU including Britain) more than the opposite and therefore has the most to loose on a trade war. The economies of both America and the EU could also possibly benefit from more beneficial trade deals with China(seen from their perspective) but I would not recommend a full out trade war. Some economist claim that one of the reasons the crisis of the 1930 ies became so severe is that the world had built up an economy based on trade. When the crisis came they then quickly turned to protectionism which ended up destroying what they built up- So my advice= renegotiate but use a cheese slicer rather than an ax./ economist

中国仍然没有实权，他们正试图找到西方国家势力范围之外的资源以获得多重保障并成功，比如俄罗斯、南美洲和非洲。
在贸易战结束的时候，虽然中国仍然需要美国（包括英国和欧盟）甚于相反，因此贸易战可能非常宽松。
对美国和欧盟的经济来说，获得与中国更加有利的贸易协议更加有利（从他们的角度看）。但是我不主张一个全面贸易战。
一些经济学家认为，1930年代的大萧条变得如此严重的其中一个原因是，当时世界上已经建立了一个基于贸易的经济体。
当危机来临，然后他们迅速寻求贸易保护主义，摧毁了他们所建立起来的贸易体。
所以我用经济学家的话建议：“谈判但用奶酪刀而不是一把斧头”。

-------------译者：cty5306-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Michael Chiasson 50 years studying war.
Written Dec 13
China was a military challenge to us back in the 1950’s and 60’s even before they grew their economy. They have the advantage of vastly larger population if war comes. And the fact that they are located in the region they want to dominate. China should not want to disturb their trade with the world. But China like Japan in the thirties and fourties has an influential minority that would be willing to disturb the financially beneficial status quo.
即使在经济发展之前的20世纪50，60年代，中国对我们而言就已经是一个军事挑战。如果战争到来，他们有巨大的人口优势。并且事实上他们希望主导他们所在的区域。中国应该不希望扰乱它与世界的贸易。但中国如同上世纪三四十年代的日本一样拥有一群人数不多但有影响力的少数派想要改变其经济地位。

 -------------译者：cty5306-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Frank Dell lives in Pittsburgh PA
Written Dec 13
No one wins a trade war. It’s a loss for both sides. But neither country will collapse if we stop trading. Both countries will continue to grow just more slowly.

没人会赢得贸易战。对双方而言是双输局面。但是双方并不会垮掉如果我们停止贸易。只是两个国家的经济增长会变得更加缓慢。

The bigger risk is robots. If no one will hire you because a robot is cheaper that could be major cause for concern. No pizza delivery job no cashier job no truck driving job no manufacturing job no coal mining job no taxi/uber driver no construction job no short order cook… About half the jobs right now can be replaced by robots in 20 years.

最大的威胁是机器人。如果没有人愿意雇用你因为机器人更加便宜，那才是我们需要担忧的事情。再也不需要披萨外送员，收营员，卡车司机，制造业工人，采矿业工人，出租车网约车司机，建筑工人，快餐厨师，将近一半的工作在20年内可由机器人替代。

That could cause collapse if we don’t adapt to it.

如果我们不能很好的适应它那将会摧毁整个经济。

 -------------译者：cty5306-审核者：BXHin1995------------

Justin Xu MBA from University of Illinois at Chicago
Written Dec 22
China is a faily economically independent country even before the normalization with US. Trade war would hurt China but would not kill him. And if trade war happened Boeing would lose one of the biggest market followed by GE etc.

即使在同美国关系正常化之前，中国也是一个经济相对独立的国家。贸易战可能会重创中但是却不能打败中国。并且贸易战一旦发生，波音，通用电气等公司将会失去其最大市场之一。

So calm down and sit to have some talk before throwing trade war threat.

所以在威胁发动贸易战之前冷静下来谈一谈。