安倍超超超超级经济学，在经济敏感期逐渐式微 [美国媒体]

TOKYO - Japan's Abenomics stimulus program is sputtering just as the government and the central bank wanted to tap the brakes, heightening the chance they will be forced to fight the next economic downturn with a near-empty policy arsenal.

东京-日本的安倍经济刺激计划，在政府和中央银行想要踩刹车的时候遭到溅射，这就增加了他们将被迫下一次经济衰退的风险，他们的政策几乎空空如也。

Analysts say Japan will avoid a recession - two consecutive quarters of contraction - and suggest the first-quarter slump was a soft patch caused by temporary factors like bad weather and weak stock markets.

分析师表示，日本将避免经济衰退——连续两个季度出现收缩，并暗示第一季度经济衰退是由诸如恶劣天气和疲软的股市等暂时因素引起的软补丁。

But there are signs growth is moderating after two years of expansion. Factory output slowed and inventory rose in April, a sign firms may have overestimated global demand.

但有迹象表明，在两年的扩张之后，经济增长正在放缓。
四月，工厂产出放缓，库存上升，这表明企业可能高估了全球需求。

Escalating trade frictions from U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist policies are taking a toll on business sentiment, which turned negative for the first time in a year, according to a government survey.

从美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的保护主义政策升级的贸易摩擦正在对商业情绪造成影响，据一项政府调查显示，商业情绪在一年内首次出现负增长。

Wages are barely rising, even as companies reap record profits from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's policies. Household spending slumped in April and service-sector activity slowed in May, casting doubt on the strength of consumption - which makes up 60 percent of the economy.

尽管公司从总理安倍晋三的政策中获得了创纪录的利润，工资却几乎没有上涨。四月家庭支出大幅下降，5月份服务业活动放缓，对消费强度产生怀疑，占经济总量的60%。

And unlike five years ago, when the Bank of Japan deployed a"bazooka" stimulus package to pull the economy out of stagnation, the central bank is now out of ammunition to spur growth.

与五年前不同，日本央行部署了一个“火箭筒”刺激计划来拉动经济走出停滞，但央行现在已经失去了刺激经济增长的弹药。

Late last year, central bank policymakers were brainstorming ways to communicate an eventual exit from ultra-easy policy as years of near-zero rates strain Japan's banking system, according to five sources familiar with the central bank's thinking.

去年五年底，中央银行的决策者们正在头脑风暴的方式，以沟通极端宽松政策的最终退出，因为近几年的零利率使得日本的银行体系紧张。

Such debate has died down as clouds hang over the recovery and inflation remains disappointingly weak, they say.
"When inflation is so subdued, it's hard to signal even prospects of a future exit from easy policy," said one of the sources, expressing a view echoed by two other sources. All declined to be identified because they were not authorised to speak to the media.

他们说，随着云笼罩着经济复苏，通胀依然令人失望，这种争论已经消退。一位消息人士表示：“当通胀如此低落时，很难对未来退出宽松政策发出信号。”

Although gloomier economic prospects could keep the central bank from whittling down stimulus, the threshold for further monetary easing is high. It would take a sharp increase in the yen, or an external shock big enough to tip the economy back into stagnation, for the central bank to ramp up stimulus, the sources say.

他们都拒绝被确认，因为他们没有被授权与媒体交谈。尽管经济前景黯淡，但央行可能不会放松刺激措施，进一步放松货币政策的门槛很高。
消息人士称，这将导致日元大幅升值，或是一场外部冲击，足以刺激经济再次陷入停滞，央行将加大刺激力度。

There is little room to boost bond buying, as years of purchases have left the BOJ owning nearly 40 percent of the entire bond market.

由于多年的购买使得日本央行占据了整个债券市场近40%的份额，因此几乎没有什么空间可以促进债券购买。

Cutting the BOJ's interest rate targets, now set at minus 0.1 percent for short-term rates and zero percent for 10-year bond yields, is also controversial, as doing so would crush already narrowing bank margins, analysts say.

分析师表示，下调日本央行利率目标，目前利率为0.1%，短期利率为零，10年期国债收益率也有争议，因为这样做将压垮已经收窄的银行利润率。

Some in the central bank say the next move is up to the politicians, though Japan's dire fiscal state leaves Abe with little room for a big spending spree.

中央银行的一些人说，下一步的行动取决于政客们，尽管日本糟糕的财政状况给安倍留下了巨大的支出狂潮的空间。

With Japan saddled with the biggest public debt of any major economy, Abe insists he will proceed with a twice-delayed increase in the sales tax next October barring an event on the scale of the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers.

由于日本背负着任何主要经济体的最大公共债务，Abe坚称，他将在明年十月两次推迟销售税的增加，除非发生在雷曼兄弟2008次崩溃的规模上。

But the outlook for a softer economy throws into doubt his commitment to balance the budget - a pledge already watered down after he pushed the target date back five years to 2025.

但经济疲软的前景使他对平衡预算的承诺置之不理——在他把目标日期推回到五年后，一项承诺已经淡化。

Abe has already voiced readiness to boost spending to offset the pain from the planned sales tax increase, mostly through tax breaks and incentives for car and home purchases.

Abe已经表示愿意提高支出，以抵消计划销售税增长带来的痛苦，主要是通过减税和汽车和家庭购买的激励措施。

Some analysts say the government could compile a supplementary budget, set up on top of annual budget spending to handle unexpected expenditures, worth up to 3 trillion yen ($27 billion) this year. But spending could also rise sharply if growth starts to peter out earlier than expected, government officials say.

一些分析家说，政府可以编制一个补充预算，建立在年度预算支出的顶部，以应付意想不到的支出，今年高达3兆日元（270亿美元）。

Some ruling party lawmakers are privately lobbying for a package of up to 5 trillion yen, roughly the size of the annual revenue expected from the sales tax increase, they say.

但政府官员说，如果经济增长比预期提前，那么支出也会急剧上升。他们说，一些执政党议员私下游说一套5兆日元，大约相当于销售税增长预期的年收入