中美谁会赢得贸易战？ [美国媒体]

Which country will win the trade war, USA or China?

中美谁会赢得贸易战？



（回答一）
Bob MacKenzie, former Business Owner and Manager. at Private (1973-2017)
I do not know how Trump thinks he can win a trade war with China. I think he is completely out of touch with reality or he and his handlers think they are still back in 1990.

我不知道特朗普哪里来的自信觉得他能打赢和中国的贸易战。我觉得他已经完全脱离现实了，也许他和他的副手们还把现在当成1990年。

The US is very dependent on imports from China. US companies out source parts from Asia, mainly China to be assembled in the US. Those companies could be put out of business if China wants to get nasty. Mid west Farmers depend on sales to China that China can just as easily get else where. The US market for China represents about 10% of China’s world sales. China’s middle class of about 800 million people are now China’s biggest consumer. Last year GM sold more made in the US Cadillacs in China than they did in the US with a 25% tariff on the import of them. They could just as easily be made in Germany Mercedes.

美国对中国的进口产品非常依赖。许多美国公司将零件制造外包到亚洲，主要是中国，只在美国本土进行组装。如果中国决定翻脸，这些公司就会遭殃。中西部的农民依赖对中国的出口销售，而中国可以轻易地从其他国家进口同样产品。中国的美国出口份额约占其全球销售额的10％。国内约8亿人口的中产阶级才是现在中国的最大消费群体。去年，尽管有着25％的进口关税，通用汽车在中国的凯迪拉克销量仍要高出美国本土销量。而这些消费者可以轻易转投德国梅赛德斯制造。

At this point in time China could just as easily stop trading with the US entirely and it would not hurt them in the long run. In fact it would probably push them well into the centre of the world stage in economic power and supremacy.

在这个时候，中国可以很轻松地停止与美国全部的贸易往来，从长远来看，这对他们利大于弊。事实上，可能还会使他们在经济实力和霸权地位上进入世界舞台的中心位置。

China has positioned itself in the world like a chess master while Trump thinks they are playing Chinese checkers.

中国已经像象棋大师一样放眼世界，而特朗普还在以为他们在玩中国跳棋。

China has opened a world bank dealing with Yuan and gold. It has opened trading houses dealing in oil and metals. It has some 40 countries signed on to their bank willing to trade in Yuan if necessary. Some of those countries have already abandoned the USD in favour of direct currency exchange with the countries they trade with or with use of the Yuan.

中国已经设立了一家人民币与黄金交易的世界银行。还开设了石油和金属交易所。有大约40个国家签署了协议，必要时愿意以人民币进行贸易。其中一些国家已经放弃美元，转而支持与其交易国或人民币流通国家进行直接货币兑换。

Russia and China are building pipe lines from Siberia to China to supply natural gas directly from the gas fields. China has opened a railroad from China to England with the cooperation of a number of countries along its route. Train loads of goods travel from China to Europe and from Europe to China now ever day saving time and money from ocean transport.

俄罗斯和中国正在建设从西伯利亚到中国的管道，直接从天然气田供应天然气。在沿途的一些国家的合作下，中国开通了到英国的铁路。从中国到欧洲，从欧洲到中国，每天都有大量货物从铁路运输，节省了海运的时间和金钱。

There is no place on earth now that China can not reach out to with trade and influence. It is presently in the process of developing an oil purchasing power house with India that will control oil prices world wide. China and India are the biggest consumers of energy and oil in the world, now with their combined populations and economic power ,they will control oil and the world currency reserve probably in Yuan, since China has a great deal of cash and very little debt.

现在中国的影响力已经遍布世界各地。目前，中国正在与印度合作建立“石油买家俱乐部”，控制全球的石油价格。中国和印度是世界上最大的能源和石油消费国，他们拥有人口和经济优势，能够控制石油，并且由于中国大量的现金储备和极少的债务，国际储备货币很可能会转为人民币。

I really don’t think Trump has a clue about what he is up against.

我真不觉得特朗普清楚地了解他所反对的是谁。


Peng Yuan-Xiu
Jun 20
Perhaps Trump the Great thought trade is a kind of zero sum game.

可能特朗普大帝以为贸易是个零和游戏。

Bob MacKenzie
Jun 20 · 1 upvote from Peng Yuan-Xiu
Yes I think he wants a winner takes all kind of game.
​
没错，他想玩赢者全拿的游戏。

Peng Yuan-Xiu
Jun 20
and neither China nor USA would win the war, both will lose …

然而中国和美国中不会有任何一方赢得贸易战，两者都会是输家。

Bob MacKenzie
Jun 20 · 1 upvote from Peng Yuan-Xiu
I think China would get hurt but it would pull itself back together faster than the US so it would in fact win if a trade war became very serious.

我觉得如果形式恶化下去，中国虽然会受挫，但肯定会比美国更快恢复过来。所以事实上中国会赢得贸易战。

Duncan Yum
Jun 22
“I really don’t think Trump has a clue about what he is up against.”
Not just Trump, probably no one in Washington D.C. or New York (especially Wall Street) has a clue. Advisors in Trump Adminstration all telling him trade war is easy to win.

“我真不觉得特朗普清楚地了解他所反对的是谁”
不光特朗普，可能华盛顿以及纽约（特别是华尔街）都不清楚自己在干什么。特朗普的顾问团队告诉他贸易战轻松就可以打赢。

Pars Jackson
Jun 20
I read your article and would like to ask, some questions.
Clearly, you are opposed to the current US trade policy, with regards to China. If so, then what do we do? We have repeatedly, tried to negotiate with China on ending its protectionist trade policy, and the results are the usual, promises and then nothing.
Ok, you criticized the President's policies. What would you do if you were him?

我读了你的文章，有一些疑问。
很显然，你是反对美国目前对中的贸易政策的。那么我们应该怎么做呢？我们一再试图与中国就结束其贸易保护主义政策进行谈判，结果一如既往，得到对方承诺，然后没下文了。
是的，你批评了总统的政策，但如果你是他，你会怎么做？

（回答二）
Mas Miwa, former Engineer at Hughes Space and
Communications
I personally think China, for three reasons.

我个人认为是中国，共有三个原因。

First, most of what China buys from the US is available from other sources, especially in agriculture, automobiles, aircraft, and seafood. Agriculture like soybeans, wheat, and grain oils are available from Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Canada, Russia, and Australia. Imported autos, mostly luxury and SUV are available from Europe, Japan, and South Korea. Economy and standard sizes are made in country by both foreign and domestic auto companies. Aircraft are available from Airbus(Europe), Embraer (Brazil), and Bombardier(Canada). Seafood is available from Chile, Peru, Brazil, Africa, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, SE Asia, South Korea, and Japan.

首先，中国从美国购买的大部分产品都可以从其他国家进口，特别是农业，汽车，飞机和海鲜。大豆，小麦和谷物油等农业可从巴西，阿根廷，墨西哥，加拿大，俄罗斯和澳大利亚进口。进口汽车，主要是豪华轿车和SUV，可从欧洲，日本和韩国购买。飞机可从空客（欧洲），巴西航空（巴西）和庞巴迪（加拿大）获得。海鲜可从智利，秘鲁，巴西，非洲，欧洲，澳大利亚，新西兰，东南亚，韩国和日本进口。

Second, Chinese ‘value added’ averages 50% on exports. From 100% on garments to less than 5% on iPhones and similar electronics. Most electronics have a supply chain with semiconductors from the US and SE Asia, displays from South Korea/Japan, and plastic/metal shells from China. Assembly is the ‘Chinese content’.

其次，中国的出口产品附加值平均占50％。从服装的100％到iPhone和类似电子产品的不到5％。大多数电子产品都有来自美国和东南亚的半导体供应链，韩国/日本的生产屏幕，中国生产塑料/金属外壳，产品组装也多在中国。

Third, Chinese exports to the US are mainly US brands, Chinese labels make only a small percentage of US consumer buys. Apple, HP, Dell, GE, GM, Ford, Chrysler, etc that manufacture products or parts in China will be the big losers because their sales and profits will drop from the additional tax. For example, in California, the sales tax is already 9.5%. Add 25% more and you are talking adding over a third of the retail value to the cost of the product for consumer items. Everything from plastic utensils, dishes, cutlery, pots/pans, kitchen appliances, televisions, cell phones, ebooks, etc.

第三，中国出口美国的产品主要是美国品牌，中国品牌只占美国消费者购买的一小部分。苹果，惠普，戴尔，通用电气，通用汽车，福特，克莱斯勒等在中国生产零件的厂商将成为最大的输家，额外的税收将会消减他们的利润空间。举个例子，加利福尼亚州的销售税已经达到了9.5％。再增加25％，那就意味着从塑料器皿，餐具，餐具，锅/平底锅，厨房用具到电视，手机，电子书等，一切产品的成本价到零售价中间会有超过三分之一的加价。

Craig Reynolds, Studied China
and Chinese culture.
Well neither country will win. When two or more countries are involved in a trade war, all involved lose. One may lose less, but all still lose. In the situation involving the US and China I expect the US to lose the most because it is engaged in trade disputes with the entirety of the EU, has sanctions on Russia, Iran, DPRK and any other country that violates those sanctions.
It’s one thing to bite the hand that feeds you, but trying to burn down all the supermarkets you shop at is just plain stupid.
Other countries not involved in the trade war typically end up being winners as they can pick up some of the business.

（回答三）
都不会赢。当两个或多个国家打响贸易战时，所有参与者都是输家。其中一个可能损失较少，但不改变他是输家的事实。中美的贸易战，我预计美国将会损失更多，因为它与整个欧盟都发生了贸易纠纷，还对俄罗斯，伊朗，朝鲜以及其他违反制裁法案的国家都实施了制裁。

以牙还牙是一回事，但烧掉所有你能购物的超市就太蠢了。
如果能接手贸易战产生的空缺，其他置身事外的国家可能会成为赢家。