西方已经衰落了吗？ - 马凯硕 [美国媒体]

The West's centuries-old status as the centre of global wealth and power is coming to an end. As the new powers - China and India from Asia and others from Africa and Latin America - rise to the top of the world's pecking order, how should the West react? Kishore Mahbubani argues passionately and provocatively that the West can no longer impose its power and ideals on the world at large, and - paradoxically - that only by admitting its decline can the West set itself up for strategic success in the long term. Mahbubani examines the myths and self-delusions of Western power with an outsider's critical eye, and the shocking freshness of his geopolitical analysis will give all Westerners and political thinkers pause for thought.

西方作为全球财富和权力中心的地位已经有几个世纪的历史了。随着新兴大国——来自亚洲的中国和印度，以及来自非洲和拉丁美洲的其他国家——崛起为世界强国，西方应如何应对?基肖尔?马凯硕激昂而挑衅性地辩称，西方不能再把自己的力量和理想强加给整个世界，而且——自相矛盾的是——只有承认自己的衰落，西方才能在长期实现战略成功。马凯硕以局外人的批判性眼光审视西方权力的神话和自我错觉，而他令人震撼的有关地缘政治的开创性分析将让所有西方人和政治思想家停下来思考。

Prof Kishore Mahbubani is Senior Advisor (University & Global Relations) and Professor in the Practice of Policy National University of Singapore. He is also the founding Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. This event is moderated by Prof. Danny Quah, Dean and Li Ka Shing Professor in Economics at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.

马凯硕教授是新加坡国立政策大学的高级顾问和教授(大学及全球关系)。他也是李光耀公共政策学院的首任院长。
这一活动由新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院经济学教授丹尼·奎恩教授教授主持。

Pky Zhao
One of the viewers says that trump will save Asia from the Chinese: Then there are things that we absolutely have to understand if trump will be able to save any part of the world: first of all, has USA provided leadership,  or ANY to the world ever since the president Roosevelt period except the invasions after invasions throughout the world if invasion equals to leadership: please take a look at the record of the USA invasions to the countries worldwide:  China 1945-46, Korea 1950-53, China 1950-53, Guatemala 1954, Indonesia 1958, Cuba 1959-60, Guatemala 1960, Belgian Congo 1964, Guatemala 1964, Dominican Republic 1965-66, Peru 1965, Laos 1964-73, Vietnam 1961-73, Cambodia 1969-70, Guatemala 1967-69,Lebanon 1982-84, Grenada 1983-84, Libya 1986, El Salvador 1981-92, Nicaragua 1981-90, Iran 1987-88, Libya 1989, Panama 1989-90, Iraq 1991, Kuwait 1991, Somalia 1992-94, Bosnia 1995, Iran 1998, Sudan 1998, Afghanistan 1998, Yugoslavia – Serbia 1999, Afghanistan 2001, Libya 2011. Second, how does it make you feel if you are from one of those countries that got beaten up by USA? Third, has USA won any of the wars? Fourthly, has USA taken any responsibility after the messes created by the invasions? If you believe trump will save Asia? How? Through another invasion? The world is changing big time when it comes to the leadership whether you want to deal with or not. Another piece of history we need to be aware of is that modern China has no history of invasions of any country in the world.  Then another question: why does the world need invaders to lead？?

一个观众说,特朗普将从中国手里拯救亚洲:如果特朗普能够拯救世界任何地方，那以下这些我们绝对必须理解:首先，自罗斯福总统以来，美国除了相继入侵世界各国之外，美国是否为世界提供了领导力，或者其他东西，如果入侵等同于领导力：

请看看美国入侵全世界国家的记录:中国1945 - 46、朝鲜1950 - 53年、中国1950 - 53年、危地马拉1954年、印尼1958年、古巴1959 - 60、危地马拉1960年、比属刚果（刚果旧称）1964年、危地马拉1964年、多米尼加共和国1965 - 66、秘鲁1965年、老挝1964 - 73年、越南1961年至73年、柬埔寨1969 - 70、危地马拉1967 - 69年、黎巴嫩1982 - 84、格林纳达1983 - 84年、利比亚1986年、萨尔瓦多1981 - 92、尼加拉瓜1981 - 90、伊朗1987 - 88年、利比亚1989年、巴拿马1989 - 90年、伊拉克1991年、科威特1991年、索马里1992 - 94年、波斯尼亚1995年、伊朗1998年、苏丹1998年、阿富汗1998年、南斯拉夫塞尔维亚——1999年、阿富汗2001年、利比亚2011年。

第二，如果你来自一个被美国打败的国家，你会有什么感觉?第三，美国赢过任何一场战争吗?第四，美国是否对入侵造成的混乱负责?你是否还相信川普会拯救亚洲?怎么拯救呢?通过另一次入侵?无论你是否愿意，就世界领袖来说，世界都在发生重大变化。我们需要注意的另一段历史是，现代中国没有侵略世界上任何国家的历史。然后另一个问题:为什么世界需要入侵者来领导? 

Ben Wong4 天前
Kishore  is always right on with his thought. However I think his "love" for western civilization may have clouded his mind.  Technological advances by the west does not mean other societies like the Middle East, India , or China would not have  stepped up and developed it. Non-western societies were devastated by the west and kept from advancement by colonialism. War deaths declined because the West stopped killing each other and their colonial slaves. Majority of war deaths was WWI , WWII , Korean, Vietnam and the overthrow of colonial rule. Now the deaths are mostly innocents from US bombs. World poverty has dropped because China had lifted over 700 million people out of poverty not because of the west. The knowledge of the west was based on Eastern and Middle East foundations. The west used this knowledge and developed WMDs in all their wars. There are many more alternate conclusions of the west's impact on humanity.

马凯硕的想法总是正确的。然而，我认为他对西方文明的“爱”可能蒙蔽了他的头脑。西方的技术进步并不意味着其他国家，如中东、印度或中国的技术就不会加速并发展。非西方社会被西方国家摧毁，并被殖民主义阻止前进。因为西方停止屠杀彼此和他们的殖民地奴隶，战争死亡人数下降。

大部分人都死于一战、二战、朝鲜战争、越南战争以及推翻殖民统治的战争。现在，死亡大多来自美国的炸弹。世界贫困的减少是因为中国使7亿多人摆脱了贫困，而不是因为西方。西方的知识是建立在东方和中东基础之上的。西方利用这些知识，在所有的战争中发展了大规模杀伤性武器。关于西方对人类的影响，还有很多其他的结论。

James Lum4 天前
Ben Wong,The western mind have constricted themselves in thinking history only began for them in the past 250 - 300 years. Human progress according to them was a western invention. The re-emergence of Asian countries like China and India has shocked them to their foundations. If one would to keep abreast of the technological advancement made by the Chinese especially in the past 5 - 10 years, its a clear sign post the West will be lapsed into relative decline. But like all past histories, letting go and coming to acceptance for a hegemon is difficult.  Accustomed to having their way every time and living off  the backs of all the other brown, yellow & black ppl in this world, its unimaginable. 
The looming trade war is just the beginning and unfortunately a hot war is the only option left for this decrepit hegemon. Chinese leaders are well aware of this. It will come a time when a show of hand by the Chinese PLA will be a reluctant necessity. Perhaps the annihilation of an entire US naval CBG somewhere in the SCS may bring them to their senses... but probably will start WW111. I think that's what US is working towards.. a re-set to wipe off all the baggage they have accumulated since 1945. Put it crudely, it's like a school bully who have lost the fight now wants to have a 2nd chance to re-set the ground rules which was once configured by them.I call them conniving hypocrites

西方人的思想已经把他们自己的思想史限制于过去的250到300年间才开始的。在他们看来，人类的进步是由于西方的发明。中国和印度等亚洲国家的重新崛起令他们震惊。如果一个人追踪由中国创造的技术进步，特别是在过去的5-10年，一个明显的信号表明西方将陷入相对衰落。

但就像所有过去的历史一样，让事态自由发展，接受一个霸主是很困难的。习惯了每次按照自己的方式，适应这个世界上所有其他棕色、黄色和黑色人种的方式，这是不可想象的。
即将爆发的贸易战只是一个开始，不幸的是，一场热战是这个衰落的霸权剩下的唯一选择。中国领导人对此很清楚。一旦战争到来，中国人民解放军不情愿但不得不应战。

也许，在某个关键控制节点的所有美国海军被消灭可能会让他们清醒过来……但可能会启动第3次世界大战。我想这就是美国的目标。重新设置，把他们自1945年以来积累的所有担子都清除掉。简单地说，这就像一个输掉了比赛的校园恶霸想要第二次机会重新设置他们曾经设定的基本规则。
我叫他们默许的伪君子。

madmanjshum
You have highlighted Key Points, which the west has worked hard for 2,000 years to conceal.  Well done.  An example of this is written in the book, Gun, Gem and Steel in which; "Eurasians in vented gun powder''.  My question is who are the EURASIANS who invented gun powder??????????

你已经强调了西方2000年来竭力掩盖的关键点。做得很好。这方面的一个例子写在《枪、宝石和钢》一书中;“发射黑色火药的欧亚混血儿”。我的问题是谁是发明火药的欧亚混血儿?

nadal
The West 'leadership' has never listened to the rest of the world.Christian religion/s have lost credibility in both Europe and America.Europeans are turning more and more towards  the Orient for spiritual fulfillment.

西方的“领导”从未听从过世界其他国家的意见。基督教在欧洲和美国都失去了信誉。欧洲人越来越多地转向东方寻求精神上的满足。

world traveller
Julius Caesar said: " i came, i saw, i conquered" in 47 BC.  think carefully, this has been the western "motto" since then !!!  don't believe me?? please check the world history and then think critically.?

凯撒大帝在公元前47年说过:“我来了，我看见了，我征服了”。仔细想想，这一直是西方的“座右铭”!!不相信我? ?请先查看一下世界历史，然后再进行批判性地思考。

Patty Grace Ho Zhilin
Trump is an effective leader in the sense that he doesn't use rhetoric & hypothesism - he is straight forward, down to earth (not up in the moon) when he speakz to his pple ..... m sure there is a lot of analysis/debate within his team on all issues - when he says this will be done, it is done -making it appear that this is a president who keeps his word, works hard and keeps the momentum on all issues -
His arrival is a counter balance against the previous laissez-faire democracy administration - at the heart of the issues is the rebuilding or reconfirming of the American Identity from its first principles of "In God We Trust" 
True, Trump is no perfect player but everybody gets their hands dirty at some point in their lives (even perfect politicians (insert sarcasm)) Trump can play the global game but with American principles which then forms the American Identity

特朗普是一个有效的领导者，他不使用花言巧语和假设——他直截了当，脚踏实地，当说到他的缺陷时……我确信他的团队在所有问题上都有很多分析或辩论——当他说这将会完成，它已经完成——让人觉得他是一个信守诺言、努力工作、在所有问题上保持势头的总统，他的当选与以往自由放任的民主政府形成了一种制衡——问题的核心是重建或重新确认美国的身份，其首要原则是“我们相信上帝”。的确，特朗普不是完美的玩家，但每个人在人生的某个时刻都会弄脏自己的手(即使是完美的政治家。特朗普可以玩全球游戏，但要遵循美国的原则，这样才能形成美国的身份认同。

Hongster Hong
he presupposes that the west established world organizations such as the IMF and world bank for the intention to benefit the developing world, in fact, they were established as a last resort for neo colonization that is pr friendly.  e.g. IMF imposes austerity measures to countries that they provide financial 'aid', but what happens when there is an economic crisis in usa in 2008?  the policy that they adopted was the reserve of austerity measure, they imposed quantitative easing, increased money supply to boost spending and bolster consumer confidence.?

他假设西方建立世界组织，如国际货币基金组织和世界银行，是为了造福发展中国家，事实上，它们是为了建立友好的新殖民主义的最后手段。例如，国际货币基金组织要求接受财政“援助”的国家实施紧缩措施，但当2008年美国发生经济危机时，发生了什么?他们采取的政策是紧缩储备的措施，他们实施了量化宽松政策，增加货币供应以刺激消费并增强消费者信心。

Kenzo
sorry , The West is not sleeping, it's doing something worse. It's looting the world, through rigging in the financial market, central banks counterfeiting trillions of fiat dollars that flow into Asia, causing hyperinflation. Do you all still think that the West is still sleeping! Dear Sir, u missed out a big chunk on the financial terrorism of the West!!!!!!(and) did the world still believe that Osama bin Laden brought down the Twin Tower@ 9/11, follow the money trails, u will know the real culprits. How many Muslims had the West killed since 9/11, you still think that the West is Sleeping. It's a NIGHTMARE!!!!!!!?

对不起，西方国家没有睡着，他们在做更糟糕的事情。通过操纵金融市场，央行伪造了流入亚洲的数万亿美元的法定货币，导致了恶性通货膨胀，抢劫了全世界。你们还以为西方还在睡觉吗?亲爱的先生，你错过了西方金融恐怖主义的重头戏!!!!!! !(而且)世界是否仍然相信奥萨马·本·拉登在9·11事件中摧毁了双子塔?自911以来，有多少穆斯林被西方杀害，你仍然认为西方在沉睡。这是一场噩梦!

avi moyal
He still did not understand that Trump was saving Asia from a Chinese takeover of the continent.?

他仍然不明白，特朗普正在把亚洲从中国对亚洲的接管中拯救出来。

The future is Unity
How? By investing and building up infrastructures in third world countries, through legitimate bilateral trade agreements? Do you know that Taiwan and Tibet's is not recognized by UN and practically the rest of the world? Obama in 2014 officially supported the one China policy. China was torn apart by the Eight Nation Alliance and opium war. A major part of the world has been colonized by the west, suffered invasion, slavery and genocides brought forth by the west. Even today, despite rational and well informed wisdom shown by the speaker in this video we still have idiots like you commenting stupid remarks. I'm pretty sure the west has already taken over you as one of their sheep.?

怎么拯救?通过合法的双边贸易协定，通过投资和建立第三世界国家的基础设施吗?你知道台湾和西藏没有得到联合国和世界其他地区的承认吗。2014年，奥巴马正式支持“一个中国”政策。中国被八国联军和鸦片战争搞得四分五裂。世界上的大部分地区被西方殖民化，遭受西方的侵略、奴役和种族灭绝。即使是今天，尽管演讲者展示了理性和明智的智慧，我们仍然有像你这样的白痴在作愚蠢的评论。我敢肯定，西方已经把你当成他们的羊了。