如果美国是世界上唯一的超级大国，而中国排在第二位，那么谁是第三？ [美国媒体]

If the U.S. is the only world superpower and China is second in line, who is the third?

如果美国是世界上唯一的超级大国，而中国排在第二位，那么谁是第三？



Dave Wright, I have studied International Relations as part of my first and my Masters
Answered Jan 16
India, Russia or Germany. Your choice depends on the criteria you use to define that slippery term Superpower.
Russia still rivals the US in terms of nuclear weapons. This was the original definition of a Superpower based on nuclear weapons capability. However, nuclear weapons have limited utility outside a potentially suicidal exchange. Russia still has enormous wealth and strength as a producer of raw materials. Europe's dependence on Russian gas indicates how significant that is and how much more important it will become.
Germany, has a stable well balanced economy and is at the heart of the European Union the largest trade bloc in the world, based on GDP. Whilst the EU can appear cumbersome and its polical power reduced by the clashing of chaotic national interests Germany is the paymaster. There are few issues that matter to Germany where the EU will not eventually fall into line. Europe when it gets its act together is a Superpower and Germany, with France are by far the most important voices plotting its course.

印度、俄罗斯或德国，选择哪一个取决于你用来定义“ 超级大国”这个术语的标准。
俄罗斯在核武器方面仍然与美国竞争。 核武器是以核武器能力为基础的超级大国的原始定义内容之一， 然而，核武器在一个有潜在自杀倾向的功能之外，实用性有限。 
作为原材料生产国，俄罗斯仍然拥有巨大的财富和实力，欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的依赖表明了这一点的重要性，以及它将变得多么重要。

德国经济稳定，经济平衡，是是世界上最大的贸易集团（以 GDP 计算）欧盟的核心。
虽然欧盟的政治权力因混乱的国家利益的冲突而减弱，但德国是其“出纳员”， 对于德国来说，几乎没有什么问题是欧盟最终不会达成一致的，当欧洲共同行动起来的时候，它就是一个超级大国，而德国（以及法国）则是规划欧盟路线的最重要的声音。

India. A growing population, an increasingly educated workforce, many of whom speak English and fast growing economic power. Overshadowed by the spectacular rise of China the rise of India has also been remarkable. The largest democracy in the world her access to the Anglophone world gives her scientists, engineers and entrepreneurs easy communication with other English speaking nations. This will be greatly to her advantage as she seeks to learn from, then emulate and surpass the advanced economies of the English speaking world. People are the greatest resource of any nation and education the great catalyst.
There are huge challenges for India but I expect India to rival China in terms of economic power, scientific achievement in the coming decades.
Politicians wise, and less wise, are capable of leading nations to disaster or triumph. Let us hope for wise leadership in the Superpowers of tomorrow because technology could change it all for better or worse.

印度。越来越多的人口，越来越多的受过教育的劳动力，他们中的许多人说英语，经济实力快速增长。
印度的崛起因中国的崛起而黯然失色，但作为世界上最大的民主国家，她对英语世界的了解使她的科学家、工程师和企业家能够轻松地与其他讲英语的国家交流，这将大大有利于她，因为她寻求学习，然后模仿和超越先进的英语世界的经济。
人是任何国家最伟大的资源，教育是伟大的催化剂。
印度面临着巨大的挑战，但我预计，在未来几十年里，印度在经济实力、科技成就方面将可与中国抗衡。
不明智的政治家带领国家走向灾难，明智的政治家带领国家走向胜利，让我们期待未来的超级大国能够发挥明智的领导作用，因为技术可以改变一切，无论是好是坏。（译注：原文如此，不知道他怎么突然又扯上技术了。。）

Nate Fictio
Answered Jan 31
Well first let’s start with what are superpower nations. The going definition is that a superpower - is a nation with capacity to project its dominating influence and power anywhere in the world. Now since the whole definition is a little arbitrary this has to be taken with a bit of salt, but in my opinion there are currently 4 superpowers and 2 emerging superpowers.
No one contests that US is a superpower with the highest military budget in the world, US certainly takes the forceful approach to staying on top of things.
China has recently emerged as a superpower or at the very least gonna get there very soon as it has not only had consistent growth in its GDP and the biggest elevation of its populous from poor to middle income, it has also been slightly nefariously trying to buy its way into other countries politics (EU, Australia, Venezuela and middle Africa), despite how you may feel about that, that’s soft power projection that has been widely used by USA during the cold war to combat communism. China is the manufacturing powerhouse of the globe and should be considered a superpower.

首先，让我们从什么是超级大国开始。
目前的定义是，超级大国——是一个有能力在世界任何地方投射其支配影响力和力量的国家，从今天看，由于整个定义有点武断，我们必须有所保留，但在我看来，目前有4个超级大国和2个新兴超级大国。
没有人质疑世界上拥有最高军事预算的美国是超级大国，美国当然会采取强有力的方式来保持领先地位。

中国近期已经成为一个超级大国，或者至少很快就会成为一个超级大国，因为它不仅GDP持续增长，人口收入从贫穷提升到中等收入，而且还略微模糊地试图进入其他国家的政治体系( 欧盟、澳大利亚、委内瑞拉和中非 )，尽管你可能对此有什么看法，但这就是软实力，一种美国在冷战时期广泛使用的对抗共产主义的力量投射方式。
中国是全球制造业大国，应该被视为超级大国。

Next we have Russia. Russia has lost some of its superpower status after the fall of the iron curtain and more so with the sanctions implemented against it after Crimea. Regardless, though its economy may be crippled, Russia still exerts a lot of pressure on its allies in the caucasus and if the recent US elections have anything to show is that it is still capable of exerting soft power. As one of the original superpowers and with a vast nuclear arsenal I argue that Russia too is still a superpower.
Lastly we have EU. EU of course is not a nation, but it is however the only real supranational entity in the world that is represented separately at UN and various other organizations. While there are other supranational unions (AU, SAU etc.) it is the only union that goes beyond just political integration. EU has the largest economy in terms of nominal GDP has low inflation, high technological integration, second largest military budget after US and is the biggest foreign aid donor in the world. EU in the political sphere is the region where treaties are usually made as such it balances the hard power of US with its soft power. EU has had some rough times in the past decade, but its position as a superpower is only suppressed by its own internal squabbles.

接下来是俄罗斯。 
俄罗斯在铁幕落下后失去了一些超级大国的地位，更重要的是，在克里米亚之后对俄罗斯实施的制裁加剧了这一变化。 不管怎样，尽管俄罗斯的经济可能会受到削弱，但俄罗斯仍然对其在高加索地区的盟友有很大影响力，值得一提的是，最近的美国大选证明俄罗斯仍然有能力发挥软实力。
作为最初的超级大国之一，并且拥有庞大的核武库，我认为俄罗斯仍然是一个超级大国。

最后，还有欧盟。 
欧盟当然不是一个国家，但它是世界上唯一真正的超国家实体，在联合国和其他组织中分别有代表。 
虽然还有其他超国家联盟( 非盟、东盟等 ) ，但它是唯一超越政治一体化的联盟。 
以名义 GDP 计算，欧盟拥有最大的经济体，其通胀水平较低，技术一体化程度高，是仅次于美国的第二大军事预算实体，也是世界上最大的外国援助、捐助国。 
在政治领域，欧盟是一个区域，它通过其软实力平衡了美国的强大实力，过去十年，欧盟经历了一些艰难时期，但它作为一个超级大国的地位，只能被自身的内部争吵所压制。

There are also two emerging superpowers that may take power in the upcoming century.
India - with a high growing economy, young and growing population and lying in a perfect position for transoceanic trade. It has ways to go in solving its social political and economical problems, but is likely to at least be a good candidate for superpower status by 2050.
And Brazil - which has been going for as much dominance in South America as China has in East Asia. But whereas China flourished, Brazil faded. There is no doubt that Brazil is a regional superpower, but in all fairness its status as a superpower was more likely a decade ago than it is now. Should it overcome its mostly political problems, Brazil could be the 6th player in the superpower game of thrones.
Lastly I should mention that African Union, with all its faults, it still host over 1.2 billion people and is the the second largest continent on Earth, if it became more closely connected it could reach a superpower status in two centuries.

还有两个新兴超级大国可能在下个世纪掌权。
印度——拥有高速增长的经济，年轻的和不断增长的人口，处于一个跨洋贸易完美的位置。
印度在解决其社会、政治和经济问题上还有很多路要走，但到2050年，它至少有可能成为一个很好的超级大国候选者。

还有巴西——它在南美的主导地位和中国在东亚一样强大。
但在中国蓬勃发展的同时，巴西却在衰落，毫无疑问，巴西是一个区域性超级大国，但公平地说，十年前巴西保有超级大国的地位比现在更有可能。
如果巴西能够克服其主要政治问题，它将成为超级大国争夺战的第六号玩家。
最后，我要提及的是，非洲联盟尽管有种种缺点，但它仍然拥有12亿多人口，是地球上第二大陆，如果它变得更加紧密地联系起来，它将在两个世纪内达到超级大国的地位。

Samuel Liu, lives in Shanghai
Answered Jan 16
Until 2009, Japan was the 2nd largest economy, which was a threat to the USA’s economic supremacy until 1989. That died with the Soviet Union Cold War threat.
Possibly India in the next decade could be the 3rd global power, but as of now, there is none- other than Trump and the USA electorate further deteriorating its own global supremacy.

直到2009年，日本还是第二大经济体，1989年日本还对美国的经济霸权构成了威胁，但之后随着苏联的冷战威胁而消亡。
也许印度在未来十年可能成为全球第三大强国，但就目前而言，除了特朗普和美国选民外，没有任何一个国家会进一步恶化、威胁自己在全球的霸权地位。

Krishna Prasad Chitrapura, Entrepreneur, Scientist at Cuspera, Qikwell, Yahoo! Labs, IBM Research (2000-present)
Answered Apr 13
Economic, technological and military powers are necessary conditions to be a superpower, but they are not sufficient enough.
I grew up in India when Soviet Union had significant influence on India. This was late 70’s and early 80’s. We grew up with soviet propaganda, Russian books translated to english were available at paltry sums (less than few cents per book). They were books on communism such as Karl Marx/Lenin and great books on Physics and Maths (Mir publication). We believed that the Soviet technology was superior than the Western tech and I am sure the impact of that propaganda is still lingering in mind of many Indians.
Later on in the 90s, we got introduced to US culture via movies, books (boy! US published books were very expensive, we always pirated them) and science. It was also the time when the Indian government opened up the economy and we got hooked to American dream — Capitalistic/consumer centric culture, values of the US. Many of us worked for US multinationals, many moved to US and the American way of life became main stream for many of us. So, in some sense I have been exposed to culture and values of both the super powers of late 20th Century.

经济、技术和军事力量是成为超级大国的必要条件，但还不够。
我在印度长大，当时苏联对印度有很大的影响，70年代末80年代初，我们是在苏联的宣传下长大的，翻译成英文的俄文书的价格很低( 每本书不到几美分 )，都是关于共产主义的书，如卡尔·马克思/列宁，以及关于物理和数学的伟大着作。我们相信苏联的技术比西方的技术更优越，我相信这种宣传的影响对许多印度人来说仍然是挥之不去的。

90年代后期，我们通过电影、书籍来了解美国文化和科技( 欧！美国出版的书非常昂贵，我们总是盗版 它们) 。
这也是印度政府开放经济的时候，我们沉迷于美国梦——资本主义/以消费者为中心的文化，美国的价值观。
我们中的许多人为美国跨国公司工作，许多人移居美国，美国人的生活方式成为我们许多人的主流生活方式。
因此，从某种意义上说，我接触到了20世纪末两个超级大国的文化和价值观。

The main point I am making is that, to be a super power you need to have value that the rest of the world looks upto, you need to believe in that value, you need to instil that value in your citizens and also export that to the rest of the world. US and the former Soviet both did that. But there is still no tangible values associated with China that is being exported to the world. Same is true with Japan, India and most of Europe — with out this tangible value/culture I really don’t see any of these countries being a super power or rival the US position as a super power.
Only way I feel US will cease to be a superpower is if the capitalistic story falls apart and crack appears in its system similar to the way erstwhile Soviet Union broke apart.

我的主要观点是，要想成为一个超级大国，你需要拥有世界其他国家都期待的价值观，你需要相信这种价值观，你需要向你的公民灌输这种价值观，同时向世界其他地方输出这种价值，美国和前苏联都是这样做的。 
但与中国相关的有形价值观仍然没有输出到世界各地，日本、印度和大多数欧洲国家也是如此——随着这种有形价值观 / 文化的消失，我真的不认为这些国家是超级大国，或者与美国的超级大国地位相匹敌。
我觉得让美国不再是超级大国的唯一办法是，资本主义的分崩离析，其体系出现裂痕，出现类似于前苏联式的解体。

Mike Conley, Masters Computer Science, Indiana University
Answered Jan 16
It depends on how you define things. Certainly the European Union, as the world’s largest economy with a substantial military, would be considered a super-power if you didn’t view a power as an individual nation. The third largest national economy in the world is Japan but it isn’t a super-power in the sense of projecting its influence politically or militarily. After that it’s Germany then the UK but you’re getting out of super-power territory at this point.
Viewed from a military point of view everyone looks pretty puny compared to the US— China is 2nd at 1/7th the spending of the US. Russia is third but not much ahead of Saudi Arabia. There really isn’t another military super-power right now other than the United States.

这取决于你如何定义超级大国。
欧盟作为世界上最大的经济体，拥有强大军事力量，如果你不把一个大国看作一个个独立的国家，它就会被认为是一个超级大国。
世界上第三大的国家经济体是日本，但从政治或军事的角度来看，它并不是一个超级大国。
其后是德国，然后是英国，但在这一点上，你已经走出了正超级大国定义的版图。
从军事角度看，与美国相比，每个国家都显得相当弱小——中国军费开支仅美国军费支出的1/7，排在第二位，俄罗斯排名第三，但并不比沙特阿拉伯领先多少。
除了美国，现在真的没有别的军事超级大国了。

Val Puente
Answered Jan 18
Germany is the closest you can get after China and the US. They have a strong and specialized economy and are basically the masters of Europe we the their leadership in the European Union. They're what you could call a political superpower because they have the biggest influence in Europe, but they lack military power projection.
Meanwhile, Russia has their natural gas which does influence Europe, but thier actual military influence is restricted to Eastern Europe and the middle East. Economically, they've gotten stronger, but not enough to compete in any way with the US or China.
So, my bet is in Germany, which has quite a big political and economical influence, even though they can't strengthen their military influence without raising a couple eyebrows

在中国和美国之后，德国是你能找到的最接近的国家。 
他们有一个强大和专业化的经济，基本上是欧洲的主人，是欧盟的领导者，他们可称之为政治超级大国，因为他们在欧洲的影响力最大，但他们缺乏军事力量投射。
与此同时，俄罗斯拥有影响欧洲的天然气资源，但其实际军事影响仅限于东欧和中东地区。

从经济上讲，他们已经变得更强大了，但还不足以与美国或中国竞争。
所以，我的选择是德国，德国在政治和经济上都有很大的影响力，即使他们无法不引起一些人的关注而加强他们的军事影响力。