为什么会有这么多人认为中国经济会崩溃？ [美国媒体]

Why do so many people think the China economy will collapse?

为何西方媒体始终在期待和语言中国崩溃？





1.Erik Hille, SMU EconomicsPhD student with international experience
upxed Sep 7, 2016
Why is China's economic growth slowing? - It isslowing not Collapsing. It will also change/transform so that it can grow againbut again not collapse.
Four issues:
1) growth fueled by importing productiontechnology will eventually come to an end,
2) there may be the need for the development ofbetter institutions to support the right innovate business development andgrowth

中国经济增长确实是在放缓，但是中国经济并未崩溃。中国经济正在进行调整升级，如果成功的话，中国的经济将会恢复增长。有如下四个问题需要注意：
1）中国通过引进生产技术推动经济增长的路线将宣告终结。
2）如果中国想支持创新业务的成长和发展，那么中国需要完善它的制度体系。

3) China had a brilliant policy of fiscalspending on infrastructure construction that avoided many of the ill effects ofthe great recession but may have over anticipated the current rate ofurbanization (rural to urban migration) ahead of job creation that is affectedby#4
4) there is currently economic uncertainty inthe rest of the world that may be part of a recovery slowdown, result is areduction in the previously insatiable appetite for products made in China.

3）中国在基础设施建设方面采取了非常好的刺激政策，这避免了经济大萧条带来的诸多负面影响，但是，如果城市化的速度超过预期，人口增长速度超过就业增长的速度，那么这可能带来一些问题。
4）世界其它地方的经济复苏缓慢，这可能带来不确定性。这将使得预期的对于中国制造产品的需求会降低。

To respond to Michel de Wilde, Both Japan (sincethe 1980s) and China (now) are facing over leveraged financial industry ripewith bad loans in default/loans in arrears. Both financial systems haveincentive to not recognize the extent of bad debt, if either system is going tohave capital available for future innovation development and growth, then oldbad non performing debt will need to be resolved. The system will need toforeclose on loans and force the sale of the underlying asset used as thecollateral, after the sale of the asset the remainder of the loan will need tobe written off.

我要回应一下米歇尔·王尔德先生，上个世纪80年的日本和现在的中国都面临着金融产业过度杠杆化问题，而这个问题导致了坏账的产生。两国的金融系统都有不好的毛病，他们倾向于忽视坏账。如果中日两国想要在未来有能力进行产业投资，那么银行系统的坏账必须得到解决。方法是取消贷款的赎回权，并强制出售作为抵押品的资产，在出售资产后，剩余的贷款将需要被注销。

If either China or Japan are able to moveforward with this process then their economic climates will improve, China hasnot yet demonstrated that it will be stuck in the same perpetual rut thatJapans has been stuck in.

如果中国或日本能够继续推进这一进程，那么它们的经济环境将会改善，中国还没有显现出像日本那样陷入长期停滞的迹象。

A Stock Market SlideIgnites Broader Fears

股市下滑引发更广泛的担忧

It was rocky start to the new year, as investorsworried about the health of China’s economy. In the first week of 2016, steep losses inthe Chinese market triggered a circuit breaker, shutting down trading early andsparking a global rout. The situation has started to stabilize, with Chinesestocks edging higher of late.

由于投资者担心中国经济的健康状况，2016年的股市一开局就很不稳定。2016年第一周，中国股市暴跌引发了证券市场的熔断机制，这导致交易所提前关闭了交易。这种状况引发了全球股市的暴跌，好在后来形势开始企稳，中国股市在尾盘小幅走高。


  
May 2016 upxe: Defying Debt Fears, China Bets onInfrastructure, China is again borrowing to build more infrastructure and propup the economy with construction and infrastructure.

2016年5月更新:中国顶住了债务恐惧，在基础设施建设方面加大投资，中国通过扩大放贷规模来建设更多基础设施，并通过建设基础设施来支撑经济。

This has been a successful strategy from 2008till about 2013. But the economy has become attenuated to such aggressivefiscal spending policy and the high return projects that were obvious lowhanging fruit were completed years ago.

从2008年到2013年，基建投资拉动经济一直是一个成功的战略。但是，这种做法对经济的提升效果已经开始变弱，这种激进的财政支出政策已经显现疲态，投资低，效益高的项目已经被投资完毕了。

It is not that the new projects are not makework, but the jobs in the manufacturing sector and urbanization - urban growthhas not been sufficient to provide occupancy for prior real-estateconstruction.

这并不是说新项目没有起到作用，制造业或者是城市化过程中创造了工作机会，这会产生新的城市居民，但是新的居民并不能消化掉之前已经累积起来，未被销售出去的房地产项目。

Building more empty infrastructure may createjobs but otherwise it may only create a supply and demand problem that wouldcause real-estate prices to fall an thus endanger existing mortgages.

建设更多的基础设施可能会创造就业机会，但是，如果这样做的话，它可能只会加剧供需矛盾，从而导致房地产价格下跌，最后危及现有的抵押贷款。

Further softening   the bankingsector that may already be sitting atop large cashes of non performingmortgages.The Phantom Province in China's Economy - More on the inflatedeconomic numbers being reported by the government of China.

进一步放松银行信贷也是有问题的，那些银行因为抵押债券已经使得他们处于高度风险中了。中国有些省份的经济数据被注水，这些“数据泡沫省份”已经被中国政府报道出来。

2.Zhang Zhiheng
Zhang Zhiheng, Chinese, with oversea educationand professional experience
Answered Feb 23, 2016
It's a mixture of thinking and wishes....Forthinking, China economy is entering into a phase of transformation, after whichit will become a real developed country like Japan or Korea did and lead thewhole world again. But the process will be very  hard for thepeople.  And if you are short-sighted you will be convinced that Chinawill collapse.

这既反映了某些人的心态，也反映了某些人的期待。中国经济正在进入一个转型阶段，在此之后，它将变成像现在的日本和韩国一样，成为一个真正的发达国家，并再次引领世界。但对普通民众来说，这一过程将是非常艰难的。如果一个人目光短浅，那么他会相信中国将要崩溃。

For wishes, many western medias have beenwishing China economy to fall for several decades from as early as 1989. Any time there is any tiny signal of things go bad in China, it will beamplified 10-100 times to the western world, by which these people manage tofool themselves again. It's hard to accept for many ones outside China that acountry could have their own way without following westerner's instruction toachieve greatness.

1989年之前，许多西方媒体已经开始期着中国经济崩溃了。任何时候，任何微小的有关中国变坏的信号，都会被西方世界放大10-100倍，通过这种方式，这些人又成功的愚弄自己。在中国以外的许多人看来，很难接受一个国家可以以自己的方式，在不需要遵循西方的指导情况下变得伟大。

China have some troubles now but far fromcollapse.. at least more far from collapse than US and most other Europeancountries... 7% annual growth is a figure those countries will laugh in theirdream if they had made.

当然，中国现在有一些麻烦，但还远未到崩溃的地步。中国至少比美国和大多数欧洲国家更健康。7%的年增长率是一个让人惊艳的数字，如果这些国家能达到7%的经济增长率，那么他们做梦也会笑醒的。

3.Greg Blandino
Greg Blandino, works at Beijing, China
Answered Feb 22, 2016
Because the Soviet unx did. Most "publicintellectuals" and the commentariat pushed this meme come from the exactsame Cold War anti-Soviet camp on the American right, in fact sometimes thepublic intellectuals are exactly the same.

之所以很多人认为中国将会崩溃，是因为苏联也崩溃了。大多数“公共知识分子”和评论家被来自于那些美国右翼的冷战反苏阵营影响了，这些“公共知识分子”被一种大脑模仿病毒感染，事实上这些人中有很多就是冷战时候参与宣传的公共知识分子。

Thus, due to intellectual laziness, they seeChina vs. the US as Cold War II, thus it will have the same ending as Cold WarI, thus China's economy will collapse. Throw in a little bit of the 久合必分久分必合 dynastic cycle bullshit(admittedly pushed most by Chinese culture), and ta-da, you get the GordonChang "the Chinese economy and state will collapse any moment now"meme.

因而，由于思维上的懒惰，他们把中国与美国的竞争看成是冷战2.0版本，有了这个类比，他们认为结局也会和冷战1.0版本是一样的，最后，他们推测中国经济将会崩溃。再加上一些“分久必合合久必分”这样的王朝循环的废话（毫无疑问，这段话是引自于中国的古语），然后你就被章家墩感染了，染上一种叫做“中国崩溃”的大脑模仿病毒。

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Just like the military is always prepared tofight the last war, these "intellectuals" are always prepared toargue the last ideological confrontation. It doesn't help that according to theneo-liberal free market fundamentalist ideology, they can "prove"that the Chinese economy should not work (but yet it does!).

就像军队总是在为最后一场战争做准备一样，这些“知识分子”们总是准备好为最后的意识形态而战。根据自由市场原教旨主义思想，他们可以“证明”中国经济早就该不行了 (但事实是中国经济运转相对比较顺利)。

Since domestically these"intellectuals" need to be pushing tax cuts for the rich paid for byservice cuts on the poor coupled with privatization and deregulation, they needto paint any economic alternative, whether it be the Chinese system or Europeansystem as failing and close to collapse.

美国国内这些“知识分子”需要用私有化和放松管制来削减穷人的服务，他们同时也在推动富人的减税政策，他们需要对世界上的任何经济系统的优劣进行评判，除了美国，他们需要证明无论是中国的体系还是欧洲的体系，它们都是失败的，都是濒临崩溃的。

4.Yusi Hu
Yusi Hu
Answered Feb 22, 2016
The reasons are as follows:
1）. Chinese economy will collapse is based on othercountry's experience. Just like Michel Wilde said in his answer. This isreasonable prediction.
2）. Chinese economy collapse serves our country'sinterests, so I say this to make Chinese people start to doubt theirgovernment.

中国崩溃的原因如下：
1）.中国经济将崩溃是基于其他国家的经验。就像米歇尔王尔德在回答中说的那样。这是合理的预测。
2）. 中国的经济崩溃符合我们国家的利益，所以我这样说是有目的的，这就是让中国人怀疑他们的政府。

3）. People wish to hear that. And if I can write a bookon this I can earn lots of money. These people could be all around the world.Interestingly, this kind of voice were most from Chinese, and the people whosaid this gained lots of supports on the internet.
4）. I care nothing, I just wanna you die! This one onlyapply to some islanders near Fujian Provence.

3）. 人们希望听到这个消息。如果我能写一本这方面书，我就能赚很多钱。这些人可能遍布世界各地。有趣的是，这种声音大部分来自中国，而持有这样说法的人在互联网上获得了很多支持。
4）. 我什么都不关心，我只是想让你死！这种想法适用于福建附近的一些岛上的居民。

5.Samuel Liu
Samuel Liu, been here since 1995,can't"shake this loving feeling"
Answered Feb 22, 2016
With the 1989 collapse of the Berlin Wall, theUSA government and media and people have not been able to find a mortal enemythat can replace the USSR (Cold War).
Japan fell before it rose further. China and theChinese government meets those enemy characteristics with its exponentialeconomic rise and increasing overt aggression to the USA and Western Ideals.

1989年柏林墙倒塌了，美国政府、媒体和人民失去了苏联这个冷战时期的死敌。日本在进一步崛起之前就被击垮了。中国和中国政府则完全不同，他们的经济呈现出指数级的增长，他们的外交咄咄逼人，在这种情况下，中国很容易被塑造成美国和西方国家的敌人。

Since 2012, when I was told of China's hardlanding, the nation has roughly grown 30% compared to the USA's 8.25$%. 2015USA GDP grew 1.1%

从2012年开始，我就听说中国经济硬着陆了，从那时开始算起，美国经济增长了8.25%，而中国几乎增长了30%。2015年美国GDP增长更是只有区区的1.1%。

6.Christopher Byrd
Christopher Byrd, I have no background ineconomics or experience apart from my investment strategies. My main knowledgeof i...
Answered Feb 22, 2016
As the main reason for the economic success ofworld trade over the past years and with world trade now drying up, countriesare worried about their own economies collapsing and  China naturallybecomes the scapegoat that it will take them down with it. A natural reaction.

过去几年，世界经济增长的主要动力来源于世界贸易，然而现在世界贸易正在枯竭。一些国家担心他们的经济会崩溃，但是中国经济却欣欣向荣，于是中国自然成为了他们想要打倒的替罪羊。这是人性，一个自然的反应。

7.Yeuk C. Moy
Yeuk C. Moy, BS Met Engr + Mat Sci, Army 19D,OCS, Env. Engr., Mil Buff
Answered Jul 21
Originally Answered: Why do western people thinkChina will collapse?
Not all western people think China willcollapse, but some of the more vocal ones are also the ones that basing theiropinions on what they want, rather than an honest assessment of the facts.

最初的回答:
针对为什么西方人认为中国会崩溃这个问题，其实我的回答是并不是所有的西方人都认为中国会崩溃。有些人直言不讳，他们的说法其实就是他们的期待，他们不会对事实进行客观冷静的分析。

Personally, I do not think China’s growth is sustainable, but Iserious doubt that there will be a collapse. There may be some correction insome economic sectors, but not a collapse.

就我个人而言，我不认为中国的经济增长是可持续的，但是我对中国经济很快会崩溃的说法持严重怀疑态度。中国的某些行业可能会出现一些调整，但不会出现崩盘。

Edit (or more accurately an addition):
I feel a large part of China’s economic boom is its controlledtransition to a free market system. However, I feel that it is tapping on aglass ceiling due to its weakness in the “Rule of Law”.

我认为，中国经济繁荣的很大一部分原因是来自于他们渐进式的经济改革。然而，鉴于中国在“法治”方面的弱点，中国的经济增长正在接近天花板。

For economic health, you need to reduce risk anduncertainty. Enforceable contracts are a key to reducing risk and uncertainty.China has a history of placing the Party and the government above all else. Toooften, the government (to include provincial and local) ill “interpret” acontract to what if feels best for them rather than what is actually written.

如果你想要经济保持健康，那么你需要去减少经济发展中的风险和不确定性。合同依法受到保护，这是降低风险和不确定性的关键。中国传统上会把党和政府置于一切之上。通常情况下，政府(包括省和地方)会以对他们最有利的方式“解读”一份合同，他们有时候不会去按照真正的书面协议来执行合同。

It does not help that the local government areoften partners of the companies. The matter gets worse when governmentofficials stands to personally benefit and use their influence.

地方政府往往是公司的合作伙伴，但这件事本身并没给公司带来什么帮助。当政府官员利用他们的影响力来维护个人利益的时候，事情往往会变得很糟。

If China can enforce the Rule of Law, they willlikely see another huge economic boom. The Rule of Law may hurt the governmentwith regards to a few instances in the short term, but it is critical for thehealth of the economy and the government for the long term. There have beenprogress in this area.

如果中国能够实施法治，中国的可能将会经历另外一波巨大的经济繁荣。法治在短期内可能会损害政府，但它对经济和政府的长期健康至关重要。中国在法治领域已经取得了一些进展。

8.C. Michel de Wilde
C. Michel de Wilde, Know general history ofChina. I am an overseas Chinese after all.
Answered Feb 22, 2016
china's economy is following the pattern ofJapan's economy. during 1980s, Japan experienced a very high economic growth,but it went into bust and the economy have been in recession since forever.some economists blame Plaza accord which made japanese currency became moreexpensive.

中国经济正在追随日本经济的模式。在20世纪80年代，日本经历了一个非常高的经济增长，但是它还是破产了，经济从此陷入了衰退。一些经济学家指责广场协议使日元变得更加昂贵。

now, china is following similar pattern, butchina is not japan. it doesn't have a security dependence with united states,thus nobody can dictate how it manages its currency.

今天，中国也在遵循类似的模式，但中国不是日本。它没有对美国的安全依赖，因此没有人可以决定它如何管理它的货币。

but again, even the chinese government statedthat they would allow economic slowdown because decades of environmentaldestruction have damaged the ecology to the point it may become irreversible.is it worth it? well you can ask the average chinese person about that.

但是，即便是中国政府也表示他们将允许经济放缓，因为几十年来的环境破坏已经使得生态遭受的伤害到达临界点了，环境问题非常严重，如果不加以改善，生态破坏可能变得不可逆转。中国需要做到这种程度吗?你可以向普通中国人询问一下这个问题。

9.Jack Crawford
Jack Crawford, BS in Economics from theUniversity of Maryland
upxed Feb 23, 2016
People don't know much about economics. Collapseis not a precise economic term. It is more applicable to structures such asapartment or office buildings. However most of the investing in China, to myknowledge, is done by the government, not private individuals.

人们对经济学的了解并不多。崩溃并不是一个精确的经济学术语。它更适用于公寓或写字楼等建筑。然而，据我所知，中国的大部分投资都是由政府而非个人来完成的。

The Chinese government hasmade a lot of investments that don't have to make a profit. This isn't good forthe economy at all. When investments aren't profitable, they are wastingresources, whether it be copper, cement, iron ore, land or even water.

中国政府已经进行了大量的投资，而这些投资并不一定要盈利。这对经济一点好处都没有。当投资没有盈利时，它们就在浪费资源，无论是铜、水泥、铁矿石、土地，甚至是水。

This unprofitable investment, malinvestment,will be bad for the economy and cause companies to go bankrupt and people tolose jobs. In a capitalist economy, bad investments will cause bankruptcies butthe assets of the company will be bought up and used by better businessmen whowill then make a profit and the whole economy will grow.

这种不赚钱的投资会对经济造成不良影响，导致公司破产及人员失业。在资本主义经济中，不良投资会导致破产，但公司的资产会被更好的商人买走并被重新使用，然后他们会从中获利，整个经济也会增长。

Under capitalism, the government doesn't protectpoor judgement by propping up the failing businesses. It let's them gobankrupt. This is a cleaning out process that keeps the capital in the hands ofpeople who know what they are doing.

在资本主义的统治下，政府不会扶持倒闭的企业，这样的做法只是在保护那些决策失误的商人。让他们破产，这是一个市场自我净化的过程，资金应该掌握在那些头脑清醒的人的手里。

10.Tran Minh Tam
Tran Minh Tam, lives in California(1980-present)
Answered Tue
the chinese model is unorthodox-for manypeople,anything unorthodox is condemned to collapse-furthermore,for people notdoing business with china,the idea of a strong china is not appealing,there isfear of being outcompeted and left behind-many european countries has wrongedchina for a long time.

对于很多人来说，中国的模式是非主流的，任何非主流的东西都注定会崩溃。很多人并不与中国做生意，从他们角度来讲，他们并不想要一个强大的中国。他们担心会在竞争中被超越——许多欧洲国家长期以来一直对中国很不公道。

they now fear some kind of payback-collapse iswelcomed-now i will take a more historical perspective-all the empires inhistory,once they have collapsed never recovered-china is the onlyexception-she has broken up,collapsed 24 times,reached the bottom of the barreletc.. but has always recovered-for westerners,any collapse isfinal,terrifying,terminal,irreversible-in china,collapses and recoveries arenatural cycles-so i am pretty sure that china will collapse but also sure thatshe,differently from other empires in history,will recover ！

他们现在担心某种报复，所以中国如果崩溃的话，他们会很乐意看到这一点的。现在，我要从历史的角度来进行展望。历史上的所有帝国，一旦崩溃就绝对不会恢复过来。中国是唯一的例外，中国已经崩溃解体过24次了。每次中国都到达谷底，但是总是能恢复过来。相反，对于西方人来说，任何崩溃都是终结。崩溃令人恐惧，那是末日，是无法逆转的。在中国，崩溃和复兴是一个自然循环。因此，我非常确信中国会崩溃，但是也确信他不同于历史上的所有帝国，她将会复兴。

the secret ? a unique language,no fightingreligions,many forces pulling things together etc..-rome conquered the ancientwestern world but had not been capable of imposing a unique language,a uniquereligion,unique system etc..-there are now in europe as many languages as thereare countries-how the hell are they going to create a unified empire ?

你想知道这其中的秘密吗？统一的语言，没有好战的宗教，一些力量把这些东西集合在一起，还有很多其它的因素。罗马征服了古代西方世界，但却没有能力建立一种唯一的语言、唯一的宗教、唯一的体系等等。现在在欧洲的语言数目不亚于欧洲的国家数目，他们要如何建立一个统一的帝国?