印度、中国和美国：毛里求斯周边的局势 [美国媒体]

India, China, and the USA: the Situation around Mauritius

印度、中国和美国：毛里求斯周边的局势



An island state, the Republic of Mauritius is not a frequent news item. The republic consists of the two large islands – Mauritius and Rodriguez, and a number of small islands and reefs in the Indian Ocean, 900 km east of the island of Madagascar. The state is well known as one of the best resorts in the world. However, in addition to its perfect climate, Mauritius is strategically located on the Asia-Africa sea route. This makes it quite attractive to China, which hopes to turn Mauritius into an important point on its 21-st Century Maritime Silk Road, which is the sea sub-project of the One Belt One Road Initiative (OBOR). However, the major traditional partner of Mauritius is India, which does not welcome the growing Chinese dominance and does not approve of the OBOR. Quite possibly, the island state could become the next arena of the Indian-Chinese confrontation.

作为一个岛国，毛里求斯共和国不是一个经常被提及的新闻话题。这个共和国有位于印度洋上，由马达加斯加岛以东九百公里处的两个较大的岛屿——毛里求斯岛和罗德里格兹岛——以及一系列较小的岛屿和礁石组成。然而，除开宜人的气候之外，毛里求斯还位于亚洲与非洲之间海上航线的战略要地上。这使得它对中国十分具有吸引力，后者希望让毛里求斯成为其二十一世纪海上丝绸之路——一带一路计划的海上组成部分——的重要据点之一。然而，毛里求斯最主要的传统合作伙伴是印度，而印度并不欢迎中国日益增长的主导性，也不认可一带一路计划。这个岛屿国家很有可能成为印度与中国冲突的下一个场所。

In June 2017, for the first time during quite a long period, Mauritius attracted the attention of the media by submitting territorial claims to Great Britain. These concerned the Chagos Archipelago located in the Indian Ocean halfway between Africa and Indonesia. In 1965, Great Britain separated the archipelago from its colony in the Indian Ocean, which included Mauritius. Thus, when Mauritius gained independence in 1968, the Chagos Islands remained in British possession. According to Mauritius authorities, this was a violation of the UN Declaration No. 1514 “On the Granting of Independence to Colonial Countries and Nations” accepted in 1960, which prohibited the partitioning of colonies before their independence. All the indigenous citizens of the islands that remained the property of Great Britain were deported. In 1971, a strategic air base of the United States was placed on Diego Garcia Island, one of the largest islands on the Chagos Archipelago.

在2017年6月，毛里求斯通过向英国提交领土主张，在很长时间里首次吸引到了媒体的注意力。这关系到了位于非洲和印度尼西亚中间的印度洋上的查戈斯群岛。在1965年，大英帝国将这个群岛从其印度洋殖民地中分离了出去，其中就包括了毛里求斯。因此，当毛里求斯在1968年获得独立的时候，查戈斯群岛仍然归英国所有。根据毛里求斯当局的说法，这是对1960年通过的联合国宣言第1514条"关于赋予被殖民国家与民族独立地位"的条款的侵犯，该条款禁止在殖民地获得独立之前将其分割。当时这些岛屿上所有归属于大英帝国的当地公民都被驱逐出境。在1971年，美国的一个战略空军基地便设置在了迭戈加西亚岛上，这个岛屿也是查戈斯群岛的最大岛屿之一。

As a result of the claims by Mauritius, the situation with the Chagos Islands was considered by the UNO in June 2017. During the voting in the UN General Assembly, 94 countries out of 184 supported the desire of Mauritius to address the Hague International Court to establish the legal status of the archipelago.

作为毛里求斯声明的结果，查戈斯群岛的局势在2017年6月为联合国组织所考虑。在联合国大会的投票中，184个国家中的94个支持毛里求斯向海牙国际法庭提出证实该群岛合法地位的请求。

As expected, the USA, its ally Japan, and South Korea opposed this decision and supported the right of Great Britain.

正如人们所预料到的，美国及其盟友日本、韩国反对这一决议，支持大英帝国的权利。

The air base in the center of the Indian Ocean is vitally important for America, as it guarantees its military presence in South Asia, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region. Up to 70% of the world crude oil transportation and up to 50% of all container traffic are carried out through the Indian Ocean. Control over these sea routes has a huge impact in the entire Asia. Therefore, the American air base on Diego Garcia Island is extremely important both for the USA and for its allies such as India, Japan and South Korea. These countries are the world’s largest importers of hydrocarbons, and get most of the fuel from the Middle East through the Indian Ocean. They are interested in making provisions for the Americans to ensure the security of these supplies. They are also interested in US military presence holding back the spread of the influence of China, which India, South Korea and Japan fear.

这一位于印度洋中心地带的空军基地对于美国而言是至关重要的，因为它保证了美国在南亚、中东和亚太地区的军事存在。全球高达70％的原油运输和高达50％的集装箱运输都经过了印度洋。控制这些航路对于整个亚洲地区有着巨大的影响。因此，美国在迭戈加西亚岛上的空军基地对于美国及其盟友——如印度、日本和韩国——是极端重要的。这些国家是世界上最主要的碳氢化合物燃料进口国，它们通过印度洋从中东地区获得了大部分的燃料。它们对于为美国人做准备以确保这些供应线的安全很有兴趣，也对阻止中国影响力传播——这正是印度、韩国和日本所恐惧的——的美国军事存在很感兴趣。

In its turn, the People’s Republic of China would be pleased with the withdrawal of the Americans. China also receives most of its energy through the Indian Ocean. Being a competitor of the USA, it perceives the American military presence as a threat to the security of its energy supply.

反过来，中华人民共和国将会很高兴看到美国人的后撤。中国也通过印度洋接收了其大部分的能源。作为美国的竞争者，它将美国的军事存在视为对其能源供应安全的一种威胁。

So far, nothing threatens the base. After the vote in the UN General Assembly, the representative of Mauritius to the United Nations, Jagdish Koonjul, announced that Mauritius would propose that the US prolong the presence of its air base on Diego Garcia in case of the transfer of the Chagos Archipelago to his country. However, America does not have such a close interaction with Mauritius as with Great Britain. This means that Mauritius may allow the American military forces to remain on its territory on other terms and conditions that are not so favourable as before. In the event of the relations deterioration, Mauritius would be able to demand that the United States leave Diego Garcia Island, which would be virtually impossible during the period of the British control over it. Thus, if the Chagos Archipelago is transferred to Mauritius, the US status in the Indian Ocean will be less stable. As was mentioned before, this fact should exhilarate China and worry India, Japan, and South Korea.

至今为止，没有任何东西能够威胁到这个军事基地。在联合国大会的投票之后，毛里求斯驻联合国代表Jagdish Koonjul宣布称，只要查戈斯群岛归属他的国家，毛里求斯将会建议美国延长其迭戈加西亚空军基地的存在时间。然而，美国却不会像和英国一样与毛里求斯保持这种密切的交流。这意味着毛里求斯可能要在没有获得如之前那般有利的条件下允许美国军事基地留驻在其领土之上。在关系恶化的情况下，毛里求斯能够要求美国离开迭戈加西亚岛，这在英国统治时期实际上是不可能的。因此，如果查戈斯群岛转交给了毛里求斯，美国在印度洋的地位将不如现在稳固。正如之前提到的，这一事实将会令中国大为兴奋，而让印度、日本和韩国大为担心。

However, curiously enough, India voted for the submission of the issue of the ownership of Chagos to the International Court. This is probably due to India’s fear of relations with Mauritius deteriorating. As is known, most citizens of Mauritius are ethnic Hindu, the descendants of workers who were brought here by the British in the colonial period. This fact ensures the good relations of the island state with India.

有趣的是，印度投票支持将查戈斯群岛的归属权问题提交给国际法庭。这可能是因为印度害怕与毛里求斯的关系出现恶化。众所周知的是，毛里求斯的大部分公民都是印度裔，他们是殖民时期被英国人带到这里的劳工的后代。这一事实确保了这一岛国与印度的良好关系。

However, a Chinese expatriate community also lives on the island. Although smaller than the Hindu population, it is very powerful. Large financial assets are concentrated in the pockets of the Mauritian Chinese. Chinese Foreign Affairs Minister Wang Yi visited Mauritius in February 2017. The participation of the island state in the 21-st Century Maritime Silk Road project was among the major issues that he discussed with Mauritius Prime Minister Anerood Jugnauth. If Mauritius joins OBOR, the Chinese influence in this state may increase multiple times.

然而，这个岛上也有一个中国侨民社区。虽然相比于印度裔社区，它的人口规模较小，但却有着非常大的影响力。大量的金融资产都集中于毛里求斯华裔的口袋中。中国外交部长王毅在2017年访问了毛里求斯。这一岛国参与二十一世纪海上丝绸之路成为了他与毛里求斯总理Anerood Jugnauth讨论的主要话题。如果毛里求斯加入一带一路计划，那么中国在这个国家的影响力可能会增加好几倍。

Such a development of the situation should worry India, which is actively competing with China for dominance throughout the Indian-Pacific territory. Mauritius is strategically important to India due to its strategic location as mentioned above, as well as due to the fact that the Indian radio electronic intelligence base is located there. Mauritius is also important because of its proximity to Madagascar, where an Indian Navy base is being built and the second Indian foreign radio electronic intelligence base is located. These two bases allow India to monitor events on the entire territory to the east of Africa. In addition, Seychelles, located near Mauritius, is host to another Indian Navy base. Thus, the growing presence of China on Mauritius is not favourable for India. Perhaps, to keep Mauritius in its sphere of influence, India is ready to make concessions and even weaken the position of its US ally on the island of Diego Garcia.

局势的这种发展应当会让印度感到担忧，它正在与中国争夺印度洋－太平洋地区的主导权。因为之前提及的战略位置，以及印度的雷达电子情报基地坐落于此，毛里求斯在战略方面对印度十分重要。毛里求斯之所以重要的另外一个原因是它在地理位置上与马达加斯加相接近，而印度的一个海军基地正在马达加斯加岛上动工建设，印度的第二个海外雷达电子情报基地也坐落于此。这两个基地能够让印度监测非洲整个东部地区的动向。因此，中国在毛里求斯日益增长的存在感对印度是不利的。可能，为了让毛里求斯呆在其影响范围内，印度准备作出妥协，甚至是在迭戈加西亚岛的问题上弱化它作为美国盟友的地位。

This is one of the versions explaining the vote of India at the UN General Assembly in June. However, an unambiguous interpretation could be given only to a few events in the world politics. It cannot be excluded that the transfer of Diego Garcia Island to Mauritius does not threaten the future of the American base on the island. Surprisingly, for many experts, China, which is interested in the US position weakening, abstained from voting in the UN General Assembly. Perhaps this is because China does not feel confident enough in Mauritius. In fact, the most influential power in this state is the rapidly-developing and rich India, which will do everything to preserve the US base, while the United Kingdom is rapidly losing its weight on the international arena.

这是对6月份印度在联合国大会上投票立场的一种解释。然而，一种毫不含糊的解释只能适用于少数的世界政治事件。它无法保证迭戈加西亚岛转交给毛里求斯就不会在未来威胁到这个岛屿上的美国军事基地。对于许多专家而言，令人震惊的是，对削弱美国地位感兴趣的中国在联合国大会上就这一问题投了弃权票。可能这是因为中国对毛里求斯没有足够的信心。事实上，对这个国家影响最大的势力是快速发展的、富裕的印度，它将会尽一切可能保住美国的军事基地，而英国则正在迅速丧失它在国际舞台上的重要地位。

This explains the position of the abstaining China. However, in this case, the question arises as to why the USA voted against submitting the Chagos Islands issue to the International Court if India is its ally and will preserve the base on Diego Garcia. Perhaps, because the US prefers to deal with allies that depend on it, but not with those on which it depends. America wishes to be the head in any alliance, and the transfer of Chagos Islands to Mauritius may result in its falling under the influence of India. This would lead to the strengthening of India’s position in the America-India relations and the weakening of the US role.

这能够解释中国为何投弃权票。然而，在这种情况下，问题又出现了：如果印度是美国的盟友，将会保住迭戈加西亚岛上的美国军事基地的话，那为何美国要投票反对将查戈斯群岛问题提交给国际法庭？可能这是因为美国更喜欢与依赖它的盟友而不是那些它需要养长的盟友打交道。美国希望成为任何联盟关系中的领导者，而将查戈斯群岛移交给毛里求斯将会导致它对印度的影响力被削弱。这将会进一步导致印度在美印关系中的地位得到增强，以及美国的角色遭到弱化。

Thus, it can be summarized that the situation around Mauritius and Chagos Islands is quite complicated, and it is difficult to predict its impact on the power balance between India, China, and the US. Apparently, this matter is a great success for Mauritius: being at the intersection of the interests of such rich states, it can exploit the situation to receive various benefits from each of them.

因此，总结而言，毛里求斯和查戈斯群岛周边的局势是十分复杂的，很难预测它对印度、中国和美国之间权力平衡的影响。显然，这一事件对毛里求斯而言是一大成功：作为这些富裕国家的利益交汇点，它能够利用这一局势从所有这些国家那里收获各种利益。