【战略与国际研究中心】是什么推动了中国建设空间站的竞赛？ [美国媒体]

What’s driving China’s race to build a space station?

是什么推动了中国建设空间站的竞赛？

The advantages of developing space capabilities are manifold.  Satellites facilitate military and civilian communications. Human spaceflight garners international prestige, while also providing opportunities for cutting-edge research. Experiments conducted in space have resulted in numerous breakthroughs that have been used to address medical, environmental, and technological challenges back on Earth.

发展航天技术能力有着众多益处：卫星促进了军用和民用通信发展；载人航天在赢得国际声誉的同时也为相关的尖端研究创造契机。太空实验已取得了许多突破性进展，用于攻克地球上的医疗、环境和技术难题。

China seeks to enhance its capacity for scientific and technological innovation by building a large modular space station. Chinese leaders also hope that research conducted on the Chinese Space Station (CSS) will support their long-term goals for space exploration, including missions to the Moon and Mars. This page offers insight into the development of the CSS, compares China’s space station with those of other countries, and explores how China may use manned space missions to bolster domestic innovation.

中国希望通过建设一个大型的模块化空间站来强化其科技创新能力。中国领导人还希望在中国空间站(CSS)进行的研究将支持其长期的太空探索目标，包括月球和火星的任务。本文介绍了CSS的发展，将中国空间站与其他国家对比，探究中国如何利用载人航天任务来促进国内创新。

CHINA ACHIEVES HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT

中国实现了载人航天

More than 60 countries have space programs that engage in activities ranging from the development of dual-use satellites to lunar exploration.  Only three of these states have independently sent humans into space.  The former Soviet Union and the United States achieved human spaceflight in 1961 against the backdrop of the Cold War space race.  Four decades later, China joined this elite group with the 2003 launch of Lt. Col. Yang Liwei into Earth’s orbit on the Shenzhou-5 (“Divine Ship-5”).  Yang orbited the Earth 14 times over a period of 21.5 hours.

超过60个国家参与了从两用卫星的发展到探月等多个空间项目，但仅有三个国家能独立地将人类送入太空。1961年，在冷战太空竞赛的背景下苏联和美国实现了载人航天。四十年后的2003年，中国通过发射一枚载人火箭加入了这个精英集团，杨利伟中校和神舟5号进入了绕地轨道。杨在21.5小时内环绕了地球14圈。

China formally launched its manned space program, known as Project 921, in September 1992.  Chief objectives of the multi-phase Project 921 include achieving human spaceflight and developing and operating what Wu Ping, deputy director of China’s Manned Space Agency (CMS), has called a “permanent” manned Chinese space station.

1992年9月，中国正式启动了“921项目”载人航天计划。921项目分多个阶段，其主要目标包括实现载人航天、发展和运行中国载人航天机构(CMS)副主任武平所称的“永久”载人空间站。（注：机构全称中国载人航天工程办公室（CMSEO），作为统一管理工程的专门机构和组织指挥部门）

（注：863计划确定了从载人航天起步最终建立空间站的步骤，921工程正式确定了三步走的发展战略：
第一步，发射载人飞船，建成初步配套的试验性载人飞船工程，开展空间应用实验。（1999-2005）
第二步，在第一艘载人飞船发射成功后，突破载人飞船和空间飞行器的交会对接技术，并利用载人飞船技术改装、发射一个空间实验室，解决有一定规模的、短期有人照料的空间应用问题。（正在进行中）

1.航天出舱 神舟七号已完成
2. 空间实验室与载人飞船交会对接 天宫一号、二号；神舟九号、十号、十一号 完成
3.空间补给：天舟一号 完成货物运输补给 推进器在轨补加 自主交会对接（已完成，目前处于独立运行阶段）
  
第三步，建造载人空间站，解决有较大规模的、长期有人照料的空间应用问题。）

China formally launched its manned space program, known as Project 921, in September 1992.

1992年9月，中国正式启动了“921项目”载人航天计划。

A critical aspect of Project 921 is the development of Tiangong (“Heavenly Vessel”) space laboratories that serve as critical testbeds for gaining the technical know-how for operating the CSS. The 8.5 metric ton (MT) Tiangong-1 launched in September 2011 and enabled Chinese astronauts – or “taikonauts” – to practice rendezvous and docking maneuvers and carry out short-term missions in space.  Despite losing  communication with the space module in March 2016, Chinese engineers applied lessons learned to improve the design of its successor, the Tiangong-2, which launched in September 2016.

921项目的关键之一是建造天宫空间实验室，并将其作为一个决定性的试验台，以验证操作中国空间站的技术知识。2011年9月，8.5吨(MT)的“天宫一号”发射升空，中国宇航员-或“太空人”-进行了交会对接操作并在太空中执行了短期任务。尽管2016年3月与空间模块失去了联系，中国的工程师们还是总结了经验教训，应用于其继任者“天宫二号”的设计中。天宫二号于2016年9月发射。（注：天宫一号超期服役两年半，其间完成三次交会对接，于2016年三月正式终止数据服务）

The Tiangong-2 features a greater capacity for scientific experimentation and is therefore considered by Wu Ping a laboratory “in the true sense of the word.”  According to China’s 2016 white paper on space activities, the Tiangong-2 offers a platform for China to master key technologies, such as cargo transport and replenishment, necessary for operating a permanent space station. Due to improvements in living quarters and life-support infrastructure, the module was able to host the two-man Shenzhou-11 crew for 30 days in late 2016.  This marked China’s longest crewed mission to date. A third Tiangong space lab is slated for launch in the coming years and will be capable of supporting three taikonauts for 40-day intervals.

“天宫二号”具有更强大的科学实验能力，因此被武平称为“真正意义上的”实验室。根据2016年中国太空活动白皮书，“天宫二号”为中国提供了一个验证关键技术的平台，比如货运和补给，这是运行一个永久空间站的必要条件。由于生活舱与生活保障基础设施的改善，在2016年年底，神舟十一号的两名成员能够在其中驻留长达30天。这是中国迄今为止时间最长的载人任务。第三个天宫空间实验室计划在未来几年内发射，将有能力支持三名宇航员进行40天的飞行。

Following from the success of the Tiangong missions, it has been reported that China is now in the process of building the core CSS module.  Wang Zhongyang, a spokesman affiliated with the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, revealed in April 2016 that China will launch this module around 2018 and conclude construction of the CSS by 2022.

在天宫任务成功完成之后，有报道称中国正在构建CSS的核心模块。中国航天科技集团新闻发言人王中阳在2016年4月透露，中国将在2018年左右推出这一模块，并在2022年之前完成CSS的建设。

DESIGNING THE CHINESE SPACE STATION

设计中国空间站

If successfully completed, the CSS will be roughly one-sixth the mass of the International Space Station (ISS) and half the size of the decommissioned Russian Mir Space Station.  The Chinese station is expected to have a mass between 60 and 70 MT – this number may increase with vessels or additional modules docked – while the ISS has a mass over 420 MT, and Mir had a mass of approximately 130 MT.

如果成功完成建设，CSS的质量大约会是国际空间站(ISS)的六分之一，大小是俄罗斯和平号空间站的二分之一。预计中国空间站的质量将在60至70吨之间，这一数字可能会随着飞船或其他模块的对接而增加。而国际空间站的质量超过420吨，和平号的质量则约有130吨。

The smaller size of the CSS may lend itself to operational efficiency and cost savings, but it comes with significant trade-offs.  Reduced capacity for astronauts, equipment, and research may limit the utility of the station as a laboratory for scientific discovery.  While Chinese engineers have noted that the station could be expanded via international cooperation, the CSS is designed to host three taikonauts for 3 to 6-month intervals (or six-person crews for shorter periods).

CSS较小的规模可能有助于节省成本及提高操作效率，但权衡之下，减少宇航员和设备数量降低了研究能力，可能会限制空间站作为实验室带来科学发现的作用。虽然中国的工程师们已经注意到可以通过国际合作来扩展空间站，但CSS的设计目标仅仅是在3到6个月的时间里接待3名宇航员(或短期6人)。

Although more recently constructed than either Mir or the ISS, the CSS is expected have a shorter lifespan.  Zhu Zongpeng, chief architect of China’s space lab system, indicated in 2016 that the Chinese space station may stay in orbit for around ten years.  Mir remained operational for 15 years before Russian controllers guided its descent into the South Pacific in 2001, and the ISS, which launched in 1998, will have functioned for 26 years if deorbited as planned in 2024.

尽管建造时间比和平号或国际空间站晚得多，但CSS的预期寿命却很短。朱枞鹏是中国太空实验室系统的首席设计师，他在2016年指出，中国的空间站可能会在轨道上停留大约10年。在2001年俄罗斯的控制人员引导其坠入南太平洋之前，和平号仍运行了15年；而在1998年发射的国际空间站，如果在2024年按照计划退役，将会运行26年。



In terms of design, the CSS is likely to resemble Mir. Both the Chinese and Russian space stations were designed to feature a core module and multiple attaching components.  By contrast, the ISS bears an “integrated truss structure” that supports dozens of payloads delivered by fifteen partner nations.

CSS的设计很可能脱胎于和平号。中国和俄罗斯空间站的设计特征相似，都是一个核心模块组合多个附加组件。相比之下，国际空间站有一个“集成的桁架结构”，能支持15个盟国提供的数十种载荷。

The CSS’s core module, dubbed the Tianhe-1 (“Harmony of the Heavens”), will be 18.1 meters long and have a mass of 22 MT when launched in 2018.  The station’s basic configuration is also expected to consist of two experiment modules, the Wentian and Mengtian, (“Quest for the Heavens” and “Dreaming of the Heavens,” respectively) permanently docked opposite each other in a T-shape structure. Each experiment module will have roughly the same length (14.4 meters) and mass (22 MT).  This design is akin to that of Mir, which had a slightly smaller Base Block that launched in February 1986.  Once fully assembled, Mir featured five additional modules—each with a mass between 11 and 19.7 MT—for conducting scientific and biological research and observing activity on Earth.

CSS的核心模块，被称为“天和一号”(“天之和”)，长18.1米，质量22吨，将在2018年发射升空。空间站的基本配置包括两个实验舱:问天和梦天，它们在t形结构中对接。每个实验舱的长度和质量大致相同(14.4米、22吨)。这个设计类似于和平号，首先在1986年2月发射了一个稍小的基块，在装配完全后，提供了5个额外的模块，每个模块的质量在11到19.7吨之间，用于进行科学和生物研究，并观察地球上的活动。

Chinese engineers plan to outfit the Tianhe core with five docking ports, as well as a robotic arm and internal racks for experimentation.  The Wentian will also feature modular storage racks and a robotic arm, while the Mengtian will have a docking port to interface with visiting spacecraft, support modules, and repair vehicles.  A space telescope, the Xuntian (“Which Takes to the Heavens”), may also launch into orbit near the Chinese Space Station around 2022.  It is expected to have a field of view 300 times the size of NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope.

中国的工程师们计划给天和核心配备五个对接口、一个机械臂和内部机柜以开展实验；还将为问天提供模块化的存储架和机械臂，而梦天将拥有一个对接接口，使其与来访的航天器、支持模块和维修器进行对接。一架太空望远镜，巡天，也可能在2022年左右进入中国空间站附近的轨道。预计它的视场将是美国宇航局哈勃太空望远镜的300倍。

FUNDING THE MANNED SPACE PROGRAM

资助载人航天计划

Some Chinese officials have expressed concern about whether Beijing can afford to continue investing heavily in the manned space program.  Official data indicate that China spent over 20 billion yuan ($2.90 billion) on the project between 1992 and 2005, and an additional 15 billion yuan ($2.17 billion) between 2005 and 2011.  Today, China allocates a greater share of its space budget to manned spaceflight (roughly 33 percent) than any other country. The U.S. follows at around 27 percent.

一些中国官员表达了对北京是否有能力继续在载人航天项目上进行大量投资的担忧。官方数据显示，1992至2005年间，中国在该项目上投入了200亿元人民币(合29.0亿美元)，2005至2011年又增加了150亿元人民币(合21.7亿美元)。目前中国空间预算中载人航天的所占的比例(大约33%)比其他任何国家都要大。美国的这一比例约为27%。

The OECD estimates that China now has the second-highest combined civil and military space budget in the world.  Total government expenditures on space in 2013 were significantly higher in the U.S. ($39.33 billion) than in China ($6.11 billion), but the U.S. budget has contracted in recent years, while China’s has expanded.  The Chinese government also plans to boost investment in space science, an area where it has historically lagged behind the United States. In 2015, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration spent over $5 billion on space science while China spent just $110 million.  China is expected to narrow this gap in the coming decades, and has already begun working to increase its cooperation with private investors.

经合组织估计，中国目前拥有世界上第二高的民用和军事空间项目预算。2013年，美国政府在太空领域的总开支比中国(33.3亿美元)要高得多(合61.1亿美元)，但美国的预算近年来呈收缩态势，而中国则有所扩大。中国政府还计划增加对空间科学的投资，在这个领域，历史上中国一直落后于美国。2015年，美国国家航空航天局在太空科学领域花费了50多亿美元，而中国仅花费了1.1亿美元。中国预计将在未来几十年内缩小这一差距，并已开始努力扩大与私人投资者的合作。

The OECD estimates that China now has the second-highest combined civil and military space budget in the world.

经合组织估计，中国目前拥有世界上第二高的民用和军事空间项目预算。

At present, it is difficult to estimate the full cost of building and operating a permanent space station.  By comparison, the ISS has high annual operating costs (expected to range between $3 and $4 billion through 2024) but is financed by multiple partner countries.  For example, NASA is party to an ISS agreement with the Japanese, European, and Canadian space agencies that divides “common systems” operating costs.  Within this framework, the U.S. shoulders 76.6 percent of the burden, while the Japanese, European, and Canadian space agencies pay 12.8, 8.3, and 2.3 percent shares, respectively.  China has not indicated whether it will seek cost-sharing arrangements with other countries.  It has signed space station cooperation agreements with the Russian and European space agencies—and the United Nations—but how much financial support such countries may be willing to provide is unknown.

目前，很难估算建造和运营一个永久性空间站的全部费用。相比之下，虽然国际空间站的每年的运营成本很高(预计到2024年将达到30至40亿美元)，但它有多个合作伙伴国家提供资金支持。例如，美国国家航空航天局与日本、欧洲和加拿大的太空机构达成了一项协议，将“公共系统”的运营支出进行分摊。在这个框架内，美国承担了76.6%的份额，而日本、欧洲和加拿大的太空机构各承担了12.8%、8.3%和2.3%的支出。中国尚未表明有寻求与其他国家分担成本的意向。中国已与俄罗斯和欧洲的航天机构及联合国签署了空间站合作协议，但这些国家愿意提供多少资金支持尚不得而知。

RATIONALE FOR PROJECT 921

921项目的理论依据

High-level political and financial support for China’s space program has increased over the past several decades.  The Chinese government noted in its latest white paper on space activities that China should be built “into a space power in all respects” and use its space program to enhance “its overall strength.” In addition, as noted in a report by the U.S.-based Project 2049 Institute, the Chinese government views manned spaceflight as a means of garnering international prestige and boosting national pride. This sentiment was  voiced by now-retired Chinese leader Wu Bangguo in 2005 when he noted that the successful Shenzhou-6 mission was of “great significance for elevating China’s prestige in the world and promoting China’s economic, scientific and national defense capabilities, and its national cohesiveness.”

在过去的几十年里，对中国航天计划的高层面政治和财政支持有所增加。中国政府在其最新的关于太空活动的白皮书中指出，中国应该“全方位地建设太空强国”，并利用太空计划来增强“整体实力”。此外，正如美国的一份报告所指出的那样，中国政府将载人航天作为一种获得国际声誉和提升民族自豪感的手段。这一观点是现已退休的中国领导人吴邦国在2005年提出的，他指出，神舟6号任务的成功对提升中国在世界上的声望和促进中国的经济、科学和国防能力和加强民族凝聚力具有重要意义。

President Xi Jinping touted China’s aspiration to become a world leader in space exploration on China’s first National Day of Space Flight on April 24, 2016.  On the same occasion, Xu Dazhe, who serves as the administrator of the China National Space Administration, explained that space industry projects (such as the “third part of manned space flight” and “third part of moon exploration”) outlined in the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) aim to make China a “major power” in the space industry.  He added that China has only just begun leveraging its space capabilities.

2016年4月24日，中国国家主席习近平在首个中国航天日的讲话中，大力宣传中国将成为世界太空探索领域的领军者。

（注：中国航天日：1970年4月24日，我国第一颗人造地球卫星“东方红一号”发射成功，拉开了中国人探索宇宙奥秘、和平利用太空、造福人类的序幕，以此为标志设立“中国航天日”，旨在宣传我国和平利用外层空间的一贯宗旨，大力弘扬航天精神，科学普及航天知识，激发全民族探索创新热情，唱响“发展航天事业、建设航天强国”的主旋律，凝聚实现中国梦，航天梦的强大力量。）

在同一场合，国家航天局局长许达哲解释说，13五计划(2016 - 2020)列出的航天工业项目(如“载人航天的第三步”和“月球探测的第三步”)的目标是使中国成为航天工业领域的主要力量。他补充说，中国才刚刚开始利用其太空实力。

Progress notwithstanding, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) scholars have argued in the past that the limited scope of China’s current contributions to space science neither measures up to the country’s “status as a great power,” nor supports the goal of “building an innovative nation.”  They further emphasize that building a Chinese space station presents unparalleled opportunities for scientific discovery and technological innovation.

尽管如此，中国科学院(CAS)学者们认为，过去中国目前对太空科学的贡献有限，既不符合中国“大国的地位”，也不足以支撑“建设创新型国家”的目标。他们进一步强调，“建设中国空间站为科学发现和技术创新提供了前所未有的机遇。”

Research conducted aboard the ISS promotes scientific inquiry and can result in beneficial “spinoff” technologies.  These include advancements in medicine and agriculture, improvements in automobile safety testing, and even the development of a new line of golf clubs.  Chinese taikonauts have been systematically denied the opportunity to directly participate in such groundbreaking research, as the U.S. and other space-faring countries have restricted space cooperation with China and limited the transfer of sensitive technologies.

在国际空间站上的研究促进了科学探究，并能带来有益的“衍生”技术。其中包括医药和农业的进步，汽车安全测试的改进，甚至能促进一批高尔夫俱乐部的发展。中国的宇航员已经被拒绝了系统性参与这类开创性研究的机会，因为美国和其他太空国家限制了与中国的太空合作和敏感技术的转让。

Successfully launching the CSS around the time of the ISS’ deorbiting would lend China its own platform for conducting research and strengthening China’s “independent innovative capabilities.”  Operating the station could also enable China to leverage diplomatic opportunities. Countries interested in continued research in space could be compelled to look to the Chinese space program in the absence of other alternatives.  The European Space Agency has already begun considering how they might coordinate joint-ventures with China.

在国际空间站仍处于在轨运行的期间，成功地发射CSS将为中国提供一个研究和加强中国“自主创新能力”的平台。运行该空间站也可能使中国能够拓展外交机遇。那些对太空研究感兴趣的国家，可能会被迫在没有其他选择的情况下转向中国的太空计划。欧洲航天局已经开始考虑如何协调与中国的合资企业。

Additionally, China hopes to use its manned space station as a stepping stone to further achievements in space.  Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program, noted in 2016 that China’s long-term goals include launching an unmanned mission to Mars by 2020 and establishing a manned research base on the Moon.  Lt. Gen. Zhang Yulin, deputy commander of the China Manned Space Program, indicated that China will use the next 15 to 20 years to develop the requisite technical capabilities for conducting manned lunar missions. China leaders have also expressed a desire to send probes the Jupiter to support their efforts to make China into one of the top three space programs in the world by 2030.

此外，中国希望利用载人空间站作为进一步取得太空成就的垫脚石。吴伟仁是中国探月计划的总设计师，他在2016年指出，中国的长期目标包括在2020年向火星发射一艘无人探测器，以及在月球上建立一个载人的研究基地。中国载人航天计划副总指挥张玉林表示，中国将利用未来15到20年的时间来发展载人探月任务所需的技术能力。中国领导人还表示，希望在2030年之前向木星发射探测器，使中国加入世界太空项目的前三名。