quora:为什么中国在被妖魔化? [美国媒体]

quora网友:虽然我反对你提问的语气,因为它使用了“妖魔化”这种主观的词汇,但我确实理解你提问的主旨,我会尽力回答。1)因为它具有地缘政治的意义。这是相当基本的博弈论,如果你想成为像美国或苏联这样的世界霸主,你需要做三件事:在你自己的势力范围成为霸主(美国一百年前实现了这一点,而苏联是二战后)。把你的经济转变成一个能够支持大量军事开支并扩大你势力范围的经济.....

Why is China being demonized?

为什么中国正在被妖魔化?




Rinat Abdekadir, Read a lot about the Geopolitics of Russia, China and the US(读过很多关于俄罗斯、中国和美国地缘政治的东西)
upxed Jan 2
While obxt to the tone of your question because it uses subjective terms such as “demonize”, I do understand the gist of your question and I’ll attempt the best to explain.
1.) Because it makes geopolitical sense.
It’s rather basic game theory really, if you wish to become a world hegemon like the US or the Soviet unx was you need to do three things:
Become a hegemon in your own sphere (US has had this for 100 years now, Soviets had this after WW2)
Convert your economy into one that can support large military expenditures and expand your sphere of influence.
Prevent other powers from becoming hegemons in their own respective regions. (China containment program)
Forget all that bluster about “Saving Tibetans from Chinese oppression!”, almost everything you see today as justification for the China containment program is merely smoke and mirrors:
Free Tibet!
Claimed reason:
WE NEED DEMOCRACY FOR TIBETANS!!! THEY ARE BEING OPRESSEESEDDD!!!
Why it’s false:
The US has supported multiple dictators in history and continues to do so even today, this is not to bash the US or anything (The Soviets, the Brits, basically all major hegemons have done things like this).
Actual Reason:
The US can put her land army on China’s vulnerable western flank, therefore reducing China’s ability to disrupt US hegemony.
Taiwan is independent! Free Taiwan!
Claimed Reason:
Taiwan does not want to be a part of China! SELF-DETERMINATION!!!
Why it’s false:
If the US really cared about self-determination, they’d stop their relations with Israel right now. They also wouldn’t have supplied chemical weapons to the Iraqi government when it was gassing the Kurds. Again, not bashing the US - this is merely what hegemons do. The Russians, the Brits all did the same and possibly the Chinese if they get to this level might do the exact same.
Actual Reason:
Taiwan serves as a great way to cut off China from vital shipping lanes, therefore reducing China’s ability to challenge US hegemony.
China is illegally taking control of the SCS!
Claimed Reason:
China is being aggressive and is taking control of the SCS which belongs to Vietnam/Philippines/ROC/Any other country other than China
Why it’s false:
Vietnam has been on a militarizing and land reclamation spree over the past 2–3 decades. All major claimants were actively reclaiming land while China basically did nothing until 2012. Vietnam has reclaimed around 48 features while China has 8. If the US truly cared about keeping people in line in the SCS they would call out Vietnam for doing such activity, but in reality the US doesn’t care about Vietnam or the Philippines doing it. Only China, one should also point out that the US has no problem with Japan using a uninhabitable island Okinotorishima to claim an absolutely massive EEZ.
Actual Reason:
The SCS is China’s main shipping route, cutting off China’s access to the SCS through proxy states is equivalent to having China by the balls.
2.) They need to justify to western audiences that China is a threat that needs to be contained.
Now if average people actually knew about the geopolitics they might say:
“Hey, is there a reason why we are spending so much money trying to contain China?”
So of course there is going to be some anti-China bias in the west, they need to find a way to justify the China containment program.
Again this is not to bash the US, governments need internal support to get their obxtives done.
China also does this sort of thing when they pump up nationalistic sentiment against Japan or when the UNCLOS ruling came out.
The Soviets also did this when they demonized the “US capitalist scum!”.
What they also don’t realize is that China is actually pushing back at what China perceives as being a hostile military bloc pushing at China’s small buffer zones. Similar to Russia w/ Ukraine.
Here, Lim Hoang, Joshua Field and Gordon Hsu explain it far better then I can:
“The US Navy has persistently sent surveillance assets to spy on Chinese military bases in the region (and East China Sea) for the past two decades, all the while hiding behind the "innocent passage through EEZ" or "international waters" excuses even though it never ratified the UNCLOS. Enforcing the terms of a treaty that it isn't officially a party to, that's pretty rich. Regardless, I'm not referring to the man-made reefs/islands but rather the Chinese naval bases that are on Hainan and the mainland.”
“the perceived *aggressive* moves China has made in East and South China sea during recent years is in direct response to a rather overt China containment policy pursued by the US and Japan presently. At one time there were actually doubts over whether such a policy existed but that all changed in 2012 when Obama announced his "Pivot to Asia". Anyone with a passing understanding of Western Pacific geography can tell that the US is actively trying to encircle Chinawith Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand (up until the military coup), Singapore and India. Combine those facts with heavy US surveillance on Chinese nuclear submarines in the East and South China seas, it would actually be insane for China to not claim, what it can, while it can, before they are completely cut off from vital sea lanes and squeezed by US proxies. “
“China containment strategy. This is a topic that the White House, State Department and the Pentagon has made great efforts to avoid and deny. However looking behind the scenes, it is obvious that the plan was put into motion years ago, long before the SCS issue heated up. South Korea, Australia, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam, India, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia are all part of the US design to contain China and limit its access to open oceans.”
Basically, the US wishes to contain China and limit her access to open seas. Similar to how the US has essentially an “invisible border’ that exists (which the Cuban missile crisis has shown), China has one as well but the US is constantly violating that border.
“Every powerful nation has a fear of being encircled by other powerful nations. They would do everything in their power to make sure that they are surrounded by friends, not enemies. If this can’t be done due to various geographical, historical and cultural reasons, they would want to ensure that there is a safe buffer along their border. This unfortunately leads to conflicts with neighbors whose interests also lie along said borders.”
“The third one is, well, the US. The world in the near future will definitely be bipolar with the US on one side and China on the other. And the former is doing everything they can to make sure that they have the upper-hand in this game of geo-political chess. This means restricting Chinese naval power, and that’s why China gets into conflicts on the East Sea with Philippines and Vietnam. They want to become a super power on the sea while no one else wants it. Their aggression and style may be distasteful, e.g. the Nine Dash Line is unreasonable, but sadly, if I were to run China, I would follow the same strategy.”
“The first and foremost answer is India. I thank God everyday for the Himalayas. Had it not been for the great mountain range separating these two civilization-disguised-as-countries, the world would never be in peace. There is but one big problem here: Tibet. Western media keep blaming China for the oppression of Tibet but the moment China lets go, you can be certain that India will be all over Tibet faster than you can spell Dalai Lama. And from Tibet, any enemy will have a clear path towards China’s Central Plain. So there goes one border conflict China will fight till its last breath.”
(US bases surround China and can be used to cut off Chinese access to open seas in case of war, as a result China must find a way to project as much power into the SCS and Taiwan straits as possible)
(Map of American treaty allies with their EEZ’s and rough power projection capabilities in green surrounding China, China must act and push back against the chain lest the US decides to blockade China in some way.)
(This chain of American satellite states/allies can block China’s access to open seas, so China must either put a lot of pressure in the chain in the south or regain Taiwan, both of which China is attempting to do. China is also forming its own alliance network of allies/satellite states like Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan in order to circumvent this)
China being surrounded means that she HAS to act aggressively in order to secure her buffer zones (which are already very small to begin with), and as a result the SCS disputes have gotten pretty bad as a result. Now is China some blameless angel? Hell no, but it helps to know that the reason the SCS disputes have gotten this severe is precisely BECAUSE the Chinese have to push back against the US in this regard.
See almost every reason that China is so evil has a geopolitical reason behind it, if you really think the US is here for morals (Again, not to bash the US, China isn’t a moral power either) you are honestly naive.
TL;DR:
China is getting a bad rap in the west primarily because the US perceives China as being a competitor that wants to subvert US hegemony around China. The US government needs public support to continue spending money to contain China in case the economy takes a downturn again, they also do it because it makes political sense to demonize your competitor and label yourself as the good guy. Believe me, China has done this as well as practically all other hegemons.

虽然我反对你提问的语气,因为它使用了“妖魔化”这种主观的词汇,但我确实理解你提问的主旨,我会尽力回答。
1)因为它具有地缘政治的意义。
这是相当基本的博弈论,如果你想成为像美国或苏联这样的世界霸主,你需要做三件事:
在你自己的势力范围成为霸主(美国一百年前实现了这一点,而苏联是二战后)
把你的经济转变成一个能够支持大量军事开支并扩大你势力范围的经济。
防止其他大国在各自的地区成为霸主。(遏制中国的计划)
忘记所有那些关于“从中国人的压迫下保护吐蕃人!”之类的咆哮,你现在看到的几乎所有为遏制中国计划辩护的东西都只不过是子虚乌有:

“解放吐蕃!”
宣称的理由:
“我们需要为吐蕃人争取自由!!!他们正在被压迫!!!”
为什么它是虚假的:
美国曾经支持了很多独裁者,甚至现在依然在这样做,我说这些不是为了抨击美国还是别的什么(苏联人、英国人,基本上所有的主要霸权国家都做过这种事)。
真正的理由:
美国能够把她的陆军部署到中国脆弱的西侧,进而削弱中国对美国霸权的干扰能力。

“呆丸是独立的!解放呆丸!”
宣称的理由:
“呆丸不想成为中国的一部分!民族自决!!!”
为什么它是虚假的:
如果美国真的在乎民族自决,他们就会停止目前与以色列的关系。在伊拉克政府用毒气攻击库尔德人的时候,美国也不会向他们提供化学武器。再次声明,我不是在批评美国,霸权国家都是这么干的。俄罗斯人、英国人都曾做过这种事,如果中国人到了这个水平,可能他们也会做同样的事。
真正的理由:
呆丸是极好的切断中国重要航道的方式,进而削弱中国挑战美国霸权的能力。

“中国非法控制了南中国海!”
宣称的理由:
“中国太好斗了,它正在控制南中国海,而南海属于越南/菲律宾/中华民国/其他的任何国家,只要不是中国就好。”
为什么它是虚假的:
越南在过去的20-30年里一直在疯狂的造岛和并将其军事化。所有主要的声索国都曾积极的造岛,而中国直到2012年还什么都没干。越南已经改变了大约48处的地貌,而中国只有改变了8处。如果美国真的在乎让南海的人们获得秩序,他们应该对越南的所作所为提出批评,但实际上越南或者菲律宾正在做这种事,而美国不在乎。美国盯着的只有中国。我们也应该指出:对于日本利用一个不适宜居住的冲鸟礁来对一片绝对巨大的专属经济区提出声索这件事,美国是没有任何问题的。
真正的理由:
南中国海是中国的主要航线,通过代理国切断中国进入南海的途径相当于抓住了中国的命根子。

2)他们需要向西方受众解释:中国是一个需要被遏制的威胁。
现在如果普通人真正了解地缘政治,他们或许会说:
“嗨,我们花这么多钱遏制中国有什么原因吗?”
所以西方当然会有一些反华的偏见,他们需要找到一种方式来证明遏制中国计划是合理的。

再一次说这不是为了批评美国,各国政府都需要获得内部支持来实现它们的目标。
在鼓动反对日本的民族主义情绪,或者联合国海洋法会议的裁定出现的时候,中国也做过这种事。
苏联在妖魔化“美国的资本主义渣滓!”的时候也是这么做的。
他们同样没有意识到的是,中国实际上正在反击那些中国认为敌对的军事团体,后者正在压迫中国小小的缓冲区。俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争也是这样。

以下是Lim Hoang, Joshua Field和Gordon Hsu对这个问题的回答,比我解释的好得多:
“在过去20年里,美国海军一直在向中国在该地区(以及东海)的军事基地派遣监视装备,尽管它从未批准过《海洋法公约》,但却一直把‘无害通过专属经济区’或‘国际水域’等作为借口。强制执行一项它并非正式缔约方的条约条款,管的相当的宽。无论如何,我指的不是人造岛礁,而是位于海南和大陆的中国海军基地。”

“近年来,中国在东海和南海所表现出的*咄咄逼人*的举动,是对美国和日本目前公然推行的遏制中国政策的直接回应。曾经有人怀疑这种政策是否存在,但在2012年奥巴马宣布‘转向亚洲’时,一切都发生了变化。任何对西太平洋地理有所了解的人都可以看出,美国正积极的试图用日本、韩国、台湾、菲律宾、泰国(直到军事政变前)、新加坡和印度将中国包围起来。把这些事实与美国在东海和南中国海对中国核潜艇进行的严密监视结合起来,事实上,在中国重要的海上航道完全被切断,并受到美国代理人的挤压之前,如果中国在它还能做到这一点的时候,不宣称它的能力范围,那就太疯狂了。”

“遏制中国战略,是白宫、美国国务院和五角大楼一直在努力避免和否认的一个话题。然而从幕后看,这个计划很明显早在多年前就已付诸实施,早在‘南中国海’问题升温之前很久。南韩、澳大利亚、新加坡、呆丸、越南、印度、泰国、菲律宾、印度尼西亚都是美国计划的一部分,目的是遏制中国,限制中国进入公海。”
基本上,美国希望遏制中国,限制她进入公海。就像美国本质上有一条“无形的边界”(古巴导弹危机已经表明了这一点)一样,中国也有一条,但美国却在不断地侵犯这条边界。

“每一个强大的国家都害怕被其他强国包围。他们会尽一切力量确保他们被朋友包围,而不是敌人。如果由于各种地理、历史和文化原因不能这样做,他们就会希望确保沿着边境有一个安全的缓冲区。不幸的是,这会导致与邻国的冲突,因为邻居的利益也沿着上述的边界。”
“第三个是,嗯,美国。在不久的将来,世界肯定会是两极的,一方是美国,另一方是中国。而前者正在尽他们所能,以确保他们在这场地缘政治棋局中占据优势。这意味着限制中国发展海军实力,这也是中国在东海与菲律宾和越南发生冲突的原因。他们想成为海上的超级大国,而其他国家都不想看到这一点。他们的侵略性和风格可能令人厌恶,例如九段线是不合理的,但可悲的是,如果是我管理中国,我会遵循同样的策略。”
“首先也是最重要的答案是印度。我每天都为喜马拉雅山感谢上帝。如果不是因为这座巨大的山脉将这两个伪装成国家的文明分隔开来,世界将永无宁日。这里只有一个问题,却是个大问题:吐蕃。西方媒体一直在指责中国压迫吐蕃,但到了中国放手的那一刻,我保证,印度会迅速的占领整个吐蕃,速度比你写下雪山老王八这几个字还要快。而且从吐蕃出发,任何敌人都能直捣中国的核心平原。所以对于这个边界冲突,中国会奋战到最后一息。”
(美国基地包围了中国,一旦发生战争,就可以用来切断中国进入公海的通道,因此中国必须想尽办法把同样多的力量投射到南海和呆丸海峡。)
  
(美国条约盟国的地图,面对它们的专属经济区和汹涌的实力投射能力,中国必须采取行动和反击,以免美国决定以某种方式封锁中国。)
  
(美国的卫星国/盟国组成的这个链条可以阻止中国进入公海,所以中国要么给南方的链条施加很大的压力,或者收复呆丸,这两件事中国都试图做到。中国也正在形成自己的盟友/卫星国网络,包括老挝、柬埔寨、巴基斯坦等,以规避这一问题。)
  
中国被包围意味着她必须采取积极行动,以确保她的缓冲地带(现在已经很小了),结果导致南海争端变得相当严重。现在中国是一个无可指责的天使吗?当然不是,但这有助于我们了解,南海争端之所以如此严重,恰恰是因为中国不得不在这方面反击美国。

看看,几乎所有“中国如此邪恶”的理由都有其背后的地缘政治原因,如果你真的认为美国在这里是为了道德(再次强调,不是抨击美国,中国也不是一个道德大国),那么你就太图样图森破了。
中国在西方获得负面评价主要是因为,美国将中国视为想要颠覆美国包围中国的霸权的竞争者。美国政府需要公众支持,才能继续花钱遏制中国,假设经济再次陷入低迷,美国也可以这么做,因为妖魔化你的竞争者并标榜自己是个好人,这种做法具有政治意义。相信我,中国已经做过这种事,几乎所有其他霸主都这样做过。

Dan Kim, I know history(我知道历史)
Answered Dec 30
No, the Soviets were demonized, Nazis were demonized, China is just being treated as a challenger to the U.S. hegemony in Asia. It’s not that different than how Japan was treated in the 80’s really, except this time it’s economic, military and political challenge rather than just economic. If China was truly demonized, it wouldn’t be trading with the U.S. and there’d have been either a cold or hot war already.
Having said that China is definitely not being trusted by the U.S. and the media has clearly biased political opinion of China - just as Chinese state media is. So, why is this happening, and getting worse?
Because China is trying to take what the U.S. has - simple as that. America is the hegemon in Asia, and China is trying to muscle the U.S. off its spot. China wants its nation to be the top dog in Asia, have the same level of influence over its neighbors that it had enjoyed in the past.
“The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is no walk in the park or mere drum-beating and gong-clanging,” In 19th party congress that took place this past fall, CCP made public what its goal for China is. The great rejuvenation of China includes the hegemony it traditionally had in East Asia. That cookie had been passed around couple times, and now it firmly belongs in the American hands. And the U.S. is in no mood to hand that over easily to anyone - especially to a nation with completely different ideology.
In my view, greater conflict between China and U.S. is more or less unavoidable as the nation has already set its eyes on becoming a hegemon. The rise in tension is plain to see and the U.S. is gathering its friends and allies. My personal opinion is that it’s still too early for China. The U.S. is still very strong and not to be taken lightly, and China still has too many vulnerabilities. But then again, Xi’s hand was forced by North Korea, so I can understand. Perhaps the biggest enemy of PRC is its oldest friend - North Korea. In fact, without North Korea, PRC would have been able to take over Taiwan in 1951, and China could certainly have had several more decades to strengthen itself.

没有,苏联被妖魔化过,纳粹被妖魔化过,而中国只是被视为美国在亚洲霸权的挑战者。这和日本在80年代受到的待遇并没有什么不同,只不过这次是经济、军事和政治挑战,而不仅仅是经济挑战。如果中国真的被妖魔化,它就不会与美国进行贸易,而且已经发生了一场冷战或热战。
话虽如此,中国肯定不会被美国所信任,媒体也对中国存在明显偏颇的政治观点——中国的官方媒体也是如此。那么为什么会发生这种事?而且愈演愈烈呢?
因为中国正试图拿走美国所拥有的——就这么简单。美国是亚洲的霸主,而中国正试图将美国从自己的地盘上挤出去。中国希望自己的国家成为亚洲的领头羊,自己对邻国的影响力与它过去享受过的一样高。
“中华民族的伟大复兴不是在公园里漫步,也不仅仅敲锣打鼓”,在今年秋天召开的第十九届党代会上,CCP将它对中国的目标公布于众。中国的伟大复兴包括它在东亚的传统霸权。这块饼干已经传了几次了,现在它已经被牢牢地掌握在美国人手中。而且美国也不愿意轻易地把它交给任何人,尤其是一个意识形态完全不同的国家。
在我看来,中美之间更大的冲突或多或少是不可避免的,因为中国已经开始将其目光集中在成为霸主上。紧张局势的上升是显而易见的,美国正在聚集它的朋友和盟友。我个人的看法是,现在对中国来说还为时过早。美国仍然非常强大,不能对它掉以轻心,中国仍然有太多的弱点。但还是要说,中国行动是为朝鲜所迫,所以我可以理解。或许PRC最大的敌人是它的老朋友-朝鲜。实际上,如果没有朝鲜,PRC本来可以在1951年接管呆丸,而且中国肯定能多获得几十年的时间加强自身。

Rinat Abdekadir
Dec 30
I honestly don’t think China wishes to have a hegemony over all of Asia.
Probably regain Taiwan, maybe Vietnam, Korea’s maybe Japan is the furthest extent they’ll go in terms of hegemony.
China probably doesn’t actually care about the US hegemony across the world as long as its not in East Asia because the US gets to spend all of its money blowing shit up and securing the world’s oceans while the Chinese get to spend it on something they want.
I think what China is mainly concerned about is the rather open China containment program that was initiated some time ago which has the potential to squeeze China from vital sea lanes and could remove China’s buffer zones in the SCS and ECS:
All the green is US allies + US power projection. Yellow is China’s buffer, it’s already super small. China probably needs to get Taiwan back for anything to proceed.

老实说,我不认为中国希望拥有整个亚洲的霸权。
大概包括收复呆丸,或许还有越南、朝鲜的地盘,也许日本是他们在霸权方面走得最远的地方。
中国可能实际上并不关心美国在世界各地的霸权,只要它不在东亚。因为美国可以把所有的钱都花在吹嘘和保护世界海洋上,而中国则可以把钱花在他们想要的东西上。
我认为,中国主要关心的是不久前启动的相当公然的遏制中国计划,它有可能将中国从至关重要的海上通道中排挤出去,并可能消除中国在南海和东海的缓冲地带:
绿色的都是美国的盟国和美国的实力投射地区。黄色的是中国的缓冲带,它已经很小很小了。要想在任何方面更进一步,中国可能需要收复呆丸。

Dan Kim
Dec 30
May be I wasn’t too clear in my answer. China isn’t coming after the U.S. all over the world map. The U.S. isn’t worried that China is coming after the U.S.’s hegemony in other parts of the world, that’s not even remotely possible now. But it is possible if China has East Asia. Technological synergies aside, China would control, with Korea and Japan as allies, 2/3 of entire Asian economy - the largest economy in the world, and once China controls Asia - anything goes. It’d be less worrisome if India was stronger, but India’s needs few more decades of growth right now.
China containment started long ago because it wasn’t difficult to see China’s desire to regain hegemony in Asia. China, Russia and Iran are the three large potential superpowers that reject the U.S. - and this is why the three nations are and will have to be contained from the American perspective. Once any of these nations have hegemony in their backyard, they’ll come after America all over the world - so the logic goes. There’s just too much at stake to ignore that possibility.

也许我回答的不太清楚。中国并不是在全世界的地图上紧追美国。美国并不担心中国会对美国在世界其他地方的霸权发起追逐,在当前这甚至是远远不可能的。但中国拥有东亚,这种可能是存在的。撇开技术上的协同效应,中国将会以韩国和日本为盟友,控制2/3的亚洲经济,而它是世界最大的经济体,而且一旦中国控制了亚洲——任何事情都会出现。如果印度实力更强,情况将不那么令人担忧,但印度现在还需要几十年的经济增长。
遏制中国很久以前就开始了,因为不难看出中国企图重新获得亚洲霸权的渴望。中国、俄罗斯和伊朗是三个潜在的超级大国,它们拒绝美国——这就是为什么从美国的角度出发,这三个国家必须被遏制。一旦这些国家中的任何一个在自己的后院拥有霸权,他们就会在世界各地追赶美国——这样逻辑就讲得通了。要忽略这种可能性,实在是太危险了。

Rinat Abdekadir
Dec 31
I agree with most of your comment.
However, I find it a bit unbelievable based on Chinese history to believe China wants to project anywhere outside of Asia. Even when China was one of the most powerful countries under the Ming, Song or Tang dynasty the hegemony she sought was almost always limited to her nearby countries which had already to some degree adopted Chinese culture to begin with:
Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Mongolia.
“It’d be less worrisome if India was stronger, but India’s needs few more decades of growth right now.”
Speaking of India, I recently wrote a post saying the probably well known reality that India will not be a peer to peer competitor for the next 2–4 decades at LEAST to China and a bunch of salty Indian trolls started spamming my answers with memes, lol. Again, China’s sphere of influence overlaps India’s, but I don’t think Chinese hegemony over India’s traditional sphere of influence is something China is trying to get. I understand that due to the power balance no matter what China does in India’s sphere of influence it is going to be looked as hostile. Similar to the US and China with the SCS (although the power balance has shrunk dramatically while the power balance between India and China is likely to remain more or less the same in the next 2 decades and probably start to shrink in the 3–4 decades timefrx TBH).
“The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is no walk in the park or mere drum-beating and gong-clanging,” In 19th party congress that took place this past fall, CCP made public what its goal for China is. “
This quote can be interpreted in many ways, I don’t think that China may even be hegemonistic in any way that would threaten the US outside of East Asia. I think China would be content with the sphere of influence they have as of now, projecting a worldwide hegemony is too difficult and costly.

我同意你的大部分评论。
然而,基于中国历史,我发现,认为中国想要投射到亚洲以外的任何地方,这种想法是令人难以置信的。甚至当中国在明、宋、唐时期,是最强大的国家之一,她所追求的霸权也几乎总是局限于她周边的国家,这些国家在某种程度上已经开始接受中国文化:
朝鲜、越南、日本、蒙古。
“如果印度实力更强,情况将不那么令人担忧,但印度现在还需要几十年的经济增长。”
说到印度,我最近写了一个帖子,说印度在未来的20-40年里不会成为对等的竞争者,至少对于中国是这样的,一群酸溜溜的印度喷子就开始用垃圾回复来刷我的回答,lol。此外,中国的势力范围与印度重叠,但我不认为中国霸权盖过印度传统势力范围是中国想要得到的。我理解,由于权力平衡,无论中国在印度的势力范围内做什么,都将被视为是敌对行为。美国和中国对于南海的看法与之相似(虽然美中之间的权力平衡已经急剧缩小,而在未来20年里,印度和中国之间的权力平衡可能仍将保持不变,而且可能在30 -40年的时间里开始缩小。)。
“中华民族的伟大复兴,不是在公园里散步,也不是单纯的敲锣打鼓,”在今年秋天召开的第十九届党代会上,CCP将它对中国的目标公布于众。
这句话可以用很多方式来解释,我认为中国甚至不会以任何可能威胁到美国在东亚之外的方式实现霸权。我认为中国会满足于他们现在所拥有的势力范围,预测世界霸权是非常困难和昂贵的。

Dan Kim
Dec 31
I understand what you’re saying, and I think you may be right. But, nations take path that minimizes the risk of worst case scenarios, and that means China can’t be allowed to become a hegemon even if it’s just for East Asia. It would be irrational for the U.S. to give up its hegemony over two of the most developed nations in Asia. In fact, I’m not even sure if the U.S. will let China take Taiwan right now, let alone Japan. Although I think Japan will actually be fine even without the U.S. - Japan is seriously powerful on its own. And as for Korea, it’s a classic middle power nation, that can play the role of a king maker in the region. It can’t stand on its own, but strong enough to give a big advantage to PRC. But, the recent experience with CCP gave them a pretty good reminder of what it used to be like under China’s influence, and frankly they’re horrified. The U.S. has East Asia’s trust and is more than capable of keeping it together in the foreseeable future. So, there won’t be any backing down from the U.S. In fact, you can tell that this is the case from the U.S. responses so far. There won’t be any freebies for China. But, there’s still hope. If North Korea calms down, then there won’t be a reason for the U.S. and China to tussle over who is the hegemon, and China can go back to building its strength and wait for better timing. The problem is that I don’t think China has enough influence over North Korea to make that happen. It certainly doesn’t bode a lot of confidence for China that the nation that strives to dominate East Asia and much of South China Sea can’t even control its oldest friend, North Korea.

我明白你的意思,我认为你或许是对的。但是国家会采取将最坏情况的风险降到最低的措施,这意味着即使只是在东亚,中国也不能被允许成为一个霸主。对于美国,放弃其对亚洲的两个最发达国家的霸权是不理智的。事实上,我甚至不确定美国是否会让中国现在就接手呆丸,更不用说日本了。尽管我认为日本在没有美国的情况下也会很好——日本本身就很强大。至于韩国,它是一个典型的中等强国,可以在该地区扮演一个国王拥立者的角色。它不能独立自主,但强大到足以给中国带来巨大的优势。但是,最近与CCP的经历给了他们一个很好的提醒:在中国的影响力之下曾经是什么样子,坦率地说,他们惊骇不已。美国拥有东亚的信任,而且在可预见的未来,它有能力将其保持在一起。因此,美国不会有任何让步,事实上,你可以看出,迄今为止美国的反应就是这样。中国不可能不劳而获了。但是,希望依然存在。如果朝鲜冷静下来,那么美国和中国就没有理由为谁是霸主而争论不休,而中国可以回去苦炼内功,等待更好的时机。问题是,我认为中国对朝鲜的影响力不够,无法实现这一目标。这种情况当然不会给中国带来太多的信心,因为那个正在努力控制东亚和南海大部分地区的国家甚至无法控制其最老的朋友朝鲜。

Rinat Abdekadir
Jan 1
I think what China is attempting to do is exploit historical and ethnic tensions that have been in existence for a long time:
Vietnam US Ally means Laos + Cambodia are Chinese allies
India is a US Ally means Pakistan is a Chinese ally (Nepal and Sri Lanka are pretty friendly as well)
South Korea is a US Ally means North Korea is a Chinese ally
Russia hates the US due to historical resentment as a result of being let down after the fall of the SU (Russia was americo-phile after 1991, but the west failed to keep this up because of NATO) Therefore Russia begrudgingly accepts China’s rise.
As long as Indonesia + Malaysia stay neutral then China has a lot less to worry about in SEA. Burma is a Chinese ally however.
Really, the one thing China needs is Taiwan. Because that’d break the first island Chain:
I believe the whole SCS dispute is also to do with the fear of being contained.

我认为中国正在试图利用历史和民族的紧张情绪,这种紧张情绪已经存在很长时间了:
越南美国结盟意味着老挝+柬埔寨是中国的盟友。
印度是美国的盟友,意味着巴基斯坦是中国的盟友(尼泊尔和斯里兰卡也很友好)
俄罗斯因为历史上的怨恨而憎恨美国,因为在苏联解体后被辜负(1991年后俄罗斯是美国的香饽饽,但西方却因为北约而未能保持这种状态),因此俄罗斯不情愿地接受了中国的崛起。
只要印尼和马来西亚保持中立,中国在海上的担忧就少得多。然而,缅甸是中国的盟友。
真的,中国需要的唯一的东西就是呆丸。因为那将打破第一岛链。
我认为整个南海争议也与对被控制的恐惧有关。

Sharath Menon, Traversed through many Asian countries(横穿过很多亚洲国家)
Answered Dec 30
Because China is seen as a practical enemy by USA, India, and many of it’s neighbors (Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, et cetera). These countries fear China because of its immense strength and potential. They view China as a large bully and threat. Of course most of the world is more scared of the USA than China. China is making a massive comeback against the West and reclaiming their position as a global leader. I’ve witnessed a lot of hatred towards China by America, Indian, and Japanese media outlets.
Despite China’s grandeur success, China’s government has historically been seen as oppressive and violating human rights. Most of the world looks at Mao Zedong as a very evil ruler responsible for the deaths of tens of millions of his own people. This was one of the largest mass killings in modern world history. However, every country has their shameful histories and much of the world has moved on. If we could forgive Germany for both world wars, we can forgive China too. Just like Germans, most Chinese have forgot and moved on. The 2008 Olympics in Beijing basically blew almost every other Olympiad out of the water, and the whole world was stunned, allured, and impressed. Shanghai and Hong Kong have the most number of skyscrapers (>300 meters) and modern buildings, and both cities have magnificent infrastructure rivaling the West. China is being demonized because of fear mongering by Western, Indian, and other Asian medias.

因为中国被美国、印度以及它的很多邻国(日本、菲律宾、呆丸等等)看作是真正的敌人。那些国家因为中国巨大的力量和潜力而对它心生恐惧。它们将中国视为巨大的恐吓和威胁。当然全世界大多数国家更怕美国,而不是中国。中国正在进行大规模的回归来反对西方,并恢复他们作为全球领导者的地位。我亲眼目睹了美国、印度以及日本的新闻媒体制造的大量对中国的憎恨。
尽管中国有了巨大的成功,中国政府历史上被视为压迫和侵犯人权。大多数国家认为太祖是一个十分邪恶的统治者,应该为其数千万子民的死亡负责,而且是世界现代历史中最大规模的杀戮之一。然而,每个国家都有它们自己羞耻的历史,而且大多数国家都在向前走。如果我们能原谅德国引发了两次世界大战,我们也能原谅中国。就像德国人,大多数中国人已经忘记了,并且向前迈进。2008年北京奥运会几乎让其他每一届奥运会汗颜,全世界都被震撼、被吸引并留下了深刻的印象。上海和港港拥有数量最多的摩天大楼(超过300栋)和现代建筑,而且两座城市都拥有足以与西方比肩的宏伟的基础设施。中国之所以被妖魔化是因为西方、印度以及其他亚洲媒体在贩卖恐惧。

Giovanni Pagni, studied at ITI Tito Sarrocchi(在ITI Tito Sarrocchi搞研究)
Answered Dec 28
China it's being demonized because of :
It's impressive rise in power, that will challenge (and in some ways already does it) the US supremacy, even if China does not want to become the “police” of the world. In 10 years (or maybe even less) China will become the largest economy in the world. It's also improving it's military very fast (and there are ton of examples about that).
The fact that it has a communist rule. Most people outside China think chinese are being oppressed by their government and demonize it. This is not true , statistics indicate that most Chinese are satisfied (up to now) with their government who has (and still is) implemented various reforms to give it's citizien a better life.
Combined with the other factors Trump recently said that China (mainly, but even Russia ) is an american adversary. I think he's returning to a cold war mentality,instead of working for collaboration between all the powers (which in my opinion would be the best thing to do).

中国被妖魔化是因为:
它令人印象深刻的崛起,将对美国的霸权发起挑战(在某些方面已经在挑战),即使中国并不想成为世界“警察”。在10年里(或者甚至更短时间)中国将成为全世界最大的经济体。它的军事也改进的非常快(关于这个有成吨的例子)。
实际上它实行共产主义统治。中国以外的大多数人都认为中国人受到了他们政府的压迫,并将其妖魔化。事实并非如此,统计数据显示大多数中国人对他们的政府都很满意(目前为止),因为政府已经实施了(并且依然在实施)各种改革,给公民更美好的生活。再加上其他因素,特朗普最近说中国(主要是,还有俄罗斯)是美国人的对手。我认为他回归了冷战思维,而不是致力于所有大国的合作(在我看来这才是应该做的最好的事情)。

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