如果我们停止从中国买东西会怎么样？ [美国媒体]

What would happen if we stopped buying from China?

如果我们停止从中国买东西会怎么样？


Case Engelen,
Updated Fri
Case Engelen
周五更新
Most people don’t know the reason such a large % of electronics are made in China is no longer cheap labor, but China having the most complete and cost effective ecosystem of component manufacturers in the world.
Many different parts are needed to build a product such as an IPhone: touch screens, camera modules, batteries… Many of these are custom made in China, and unfortunately there are simply no suppliers of those kind of parts left in the US.

大部分人不知道，如此多的电子产品在中国制造的原因，不再是廉价劳动力了，而是中国拥有世界上最完整、最具成本效益的零部件制造商生态系统。
要制造出像IPhone这样的产品，需要许多不同的部件：触摸屏、相机模块，电池。。。很多都是在中国定制的，不幸的是，在美国根本没有这种零部件的供应商。

Doing final assembly in the US of 37 parts of which 32 are custom made in China is a logistic nightmare. Every custom part is a new product in itself, which especially in the beginning will need some adjustments. If your first shipment of 10,000 LCD’s has a wire which turns out to be a little too long, In China you just send them back to the factory 5 minutes down the road, and they will send the fixed units back within 2 days. If those same LCD’s would have been shipped to the US it would be in a batch of 100,000, the shipment could take 3 weeks, and they would all have to be sent back and forth again: the production line is dead for 6 weeks. Oh, and during those 3 weeks it took before they noticed the cable problem, the LCD factory would have continued to produce another 200K LCD’s with wrong cables...

在美国做37部分其中32部分是在中国定制的最终组装是一个后勤上的噩梦。每个定制部分都是一个新的产品，特别是在刚开始时需要一些调整。如果你的第一批一万个液晶显示器有一根电线太长了，在中国你只要把它们送回离你只有五分钟路程的工厂，他们就会在2天内把这部分修好并给你送回来。如果把这些液晶显示器送到美国，他们会一次运送十万个，在路上要花三个星期，然后它们还要被送回去再送回来：生产线已经停产6个星期了。哦对了，在他们发现问题之前的三个星期，工厂可能又生产了二十万台有电线问题的液晶显示器。

So what happens if Trump forces Apple to move iPhone production to the US? Foxconn needs to make sure the complex assembly of all those custom made parts works well, so full final assembly and testing will still be done in China. They will simply add an extra step to the process: take the phones apart into say 2 halves, making it a knock down kit. They will then ship those carefully packaged halves to a screwdriver factory in the US. All what will be done there is screw the 2 halves of the phone screwed together again.

所以如果川普强制苹果将iphone生产转移到美国会发生什么呢？富士康需要确保所有这些定制部件的复杂组装都工作的很好，所以最终的组装和测试仍将在中国完成。他们只会在过程中添加一个额外的步骤：把iphone拆成比如说两部分。然后，他们将把这些经过精心包装的部分运往美国的一家螺丝刀工厂。所有的事情都是把手机的两部分再次拧在一起。

In China, where manufacturing labor is now at about 15% of US rates, Foxconn is already replacing a lot of workers with robots. In the US any new factory will be robotized up to the hilt.
Especially with the kind of volumes of Apple, you can be sure they will use robots to screw and package 10 million phones a month. So the number of jobs this whole charade would create will be limited to a robot programmer, a repair guy and a doorman. The cost of the extra steps in the process, and paying for all these robots, will only make the next generation iPhone even more expensive.
So one factory owner gets rich (Tax Free), and 325 million US consumer pay the price for Trump’s tough talk.

在中国，制造业劳动力的价格约为美国的15%，富士康都已经用机器人取代了许多工人。在美国，任何新工厂都将会最大程度的采用机械地自动化。
特别是苹果巨大的数量，你可以肯定他们会用机器人来每个月生产1000万部手机。因此，整个过程所创造的就业机会将仅限于一个机器人程序员、一个维修工和一个门卫。这些额外步骤的开销、所有这些机器人的费用，都只会让下一代iphone更加昂贵。
因此，一家工厂老板变得富有（免税），而美国的325万消费者为特朗普的强硬言论付出了代价。

Update
David Reinertson pointed to an article saying the majority of the parts in an iPhone come from outside China: Anatomy of an iPhone: what’s in it and where the parts come from. Here’s a recent analysis done by IFIXIT: iPhone X Teardown



It’s important to distinguish between Off The Shelf (OTS) Components, and Custom Parts. On the circuit boards there may be over 100 (? I welcome an accurate count!) tiny components. They are standard, tried and tested, and can easily be ordered on-line anywhere on the planet.
The problem is with all the the non-OTS parts, all designed specifically for this phone. They will include custom batteries (notice the shape?), custom PCB’s, little brackets, flex cables, lenses, housings etc.

更新
David Reinertson提到一篇文章说iPhone的大部分部件都来自中国以外的地方：“iPhone解剖：里面是什么，零件来自哪里”。这里是一份IFIXIT所做的最新的分析：“iPhone X拆解”
区分OTS组件和定制部件是很重要的。电路板上可能有超过100个（？我欢迎一个精确的计数！）小部件。它们是标准的，经过试验和测试的，可以很容易地在地球上的任何地方在线订购。
问题是所有的非ots部件，都是专门为这款手机设计的。它们将包括定制电池（注意形状），定制的PCB板，小支架，排线，镜片，外壳等。

I do not have detailed research, but I am confident the majority of these Custom Parts are made in China. Even if the housing is sold by Taiwan listed company Catcher, on their site you can see they have 7 plants in China. This number of factories, for a company you have never heard of, only underscores the importance of component suppliers being close to their clients: wherever Foxconn or Pegatron set up a new assembly plant for Apple, Catcher will build one next door. More on this here: Design For China Manufacturing
So then you could think: if we get an Apple factory in the US, we get a whole industrial park around it, full of component factories to supply them. But if the REAL work were to be done in the US, we get to the problem Steve Jobs always mentioned: in the US there is no way you can find 100,00 skilled factory workers to staff such a park. (In China Foxconn alone employs 1 million people on behalf of Apple)

我没有详细的研究，但我相信大部分的定制部件都是在中国制造的。即使外壳是由台湾上市公司Catcher出售的，但在他们的网站上可以看到他们在中国有7家工厂。对于一家你从未听说过的公司来说，这些工厂的数量只是强调了零部件供应商与客户离得近的重要性：无论富士康还是和硕为苹果设立了一个新的装配厂，Catcher都将在隔壁建造一个工厂。更多的在这里：为中国制造设计。

然后你可能会想：：如果我们在美国有一家苹果工厂，我们就会在它周围建立一个完整的工业园区，那里有大量的零部件工厂供他们使用。但是如果我们要在美国真的这么做的话，我们就会碰到史蒂夫乔布斯经常提到的问题：在美国，你不可能找到100万名技术工人来为这样的园区工作。（仅在中国，富士康就代表苹果雇佣了100万人）

Edison Wu, PH.D from Baruch College
Answered Feb 27
Edison Wu，Baruch学院博士
2-17日回答
First! America and Europe already abandoned industrial initiative. Many factories and manufacturing industries are strongly condensed in China. With decades of industrial advancement, the products manufactured in China can be produced faster, cheap, and better quality.
If people stop buying from China, the rest of the world had to buy products somewhere. If people invest in Africa, the initial investment is expensive to startup industrial zone and buildings. Afterward, you need experience team of workers. The worker might be slow, when running into issues the resolution rate will be low, and products of complexity cannot be produced or cannot be produced efficiently.
Without superior infrastructors such as roads, trains, and airports all the products will be expensive to ship. Vice versa, the raw material being shipped from location A to location B will be expensive as well.

首先!美国和欧洲已经放弃了工业主动权。在中国，许多工厂和制造行业都被强烈地浓缩了。经过几十年的工业发展，中国制造的产品可以更快、更便宜，而且质量更好。
如果人们不再从中国购买商品，世界其他地方就不得不在另外一个地方购买。如果人们在非洲投资，启动工业区和建筑的初始投资是很昂贵的。之后，你需要有经验的员工团队。工作人员可能会很慢，当遇到问题时，解决率将会很低，而复杂的产品无法生产或无法高效地生产出来。
如果没有先进的基础设施，如道路、火车和机场，所有的产品的运输都将是昂贵的。反之亦然，从A地运到B地的原材料也会很贵。

Walter Edwards, technologist and writer
Answered Feb 27
Walter Edwards，技术专家和作家
2-17日回答
“we”? If the rest of the world stopped buying from China today. The world economy would pretty much collapse. Everyone would scramble around trying to fix it. The Chinese would adapt much faster and more effectively than the rest of the world because of the way decisions are made. The rest of the world would be in chaos with conflicting voices competing for a new direction that favors each of them.
Our supply chains are very entwined with China and it would take massive investment of time, money, talent, and resources to adapt to such a big change.
We’d eventually work things out, but most everyone in political power outside of China would be promptly tossed out for gross incompetence.
Let’s not do that please.

“我们”？如果世界其他国家今天停止从中国购买商品。世界经济很可能将会崩溃。每个人都会争先恐后地试图解决它。由于他们决策的制定方式，中国人将比世界其他国家更快、更有效地适应这种情况。世界其他地区将陷入一片混乱，为了争取一个有利于各自的新方向，各种相互矛盾的声音互相竞争，
我们的供应链与中国紧密地交织在一起，需要大量的时间、资金、人才和资源来适应这种巨大的变化。
我们最终会解决问题，但大多数在中国以外的政客都会因为严重的不称职而被赶出去。
我们可不要那样做。

Hanxuan Chen
Answered Feb 27
Hanxuan Chen
2-27日回答
If that really happens
I’d say no one can afford the price
The history shows that increasing employment rate which is out of control of the State finally leads to world war to transfer domestic crisis
We Chinese were once victims in world war 2 to alleviate internal problems in some countries
At least 30 million innocent Chinese people were tortured and died sorely
If that really happens,and unfortunately lead to that bad ending. No one can escape from this planet.Because Chinese is now all over the world and our guided missile can reach every part on earth.
Hope that day come as late as possible

如果这真的发生
我可以说没有人可以承担的起这个代价
历史表明，无法控制的不断增长的失业率最终导致了世界大战，来转移国内的危机
我们中国人曾经是二战的受害者，被用来以缓解一些国家的内部问题
在这之中，至少有3000万无辜的中国人民遭受酷刑和死亡
如果这真的发生了，并不幸的导致了糟糕的结局。没有人能逃离这个星球。因为中国人现在遍布世界各地，而且我们的制导导弹可以到达地球上的每一个角落。
希望这一天来得尽可能晚。