巴基斯坦要求中国提供更多贷款以避免发生外汇危机 [美国媒体]

Pakistan Asks China for More Loans to Avoid Foreign Currency Crisis

巴基斯坦向中国请求更多贷款，以避免一场外汇危机



Pakistan has asked China to keep lending it money to prevent a foreign currency crisis, warning that Beijing’s planned $60bn investment in the South Asian country was at risk if it failed to do so, according to a report in the Financial Times.

根据《金融时报》的一篇报道，最近巴基斯坦正在请求中国进一步提供资金，以助其避免一场外汇危机，并警告说如果巴方资金链断裂，也会危及北京在这个南亚国家的600亿美元投资计划。

China recently lent Pakistan $1 billion to help with its foreign currency crisis.

不久前中国向巴基斯坦提供了10亿美元贷款，以助其渡过货币危机。

Over the last financial year ended June 2018, Pakistan borrowed $4bn from China according to government officials  and wants to keep the money flowing to avoid having to ask the IMF for a bailout.

据巴政府官员透露，截至2018年6月的上一个财政年度中，巴基斯坦共向中国借贷40亿美元，并希望能够保持这一资金流，从而免于向国际货币基金组织（IMF）寻求紧急财政援助。

Officials in Islamabad have warned their Chinese counterparts that if the lending stops, it could threaten the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

伊斯兰堡官员们已向中方有关人士发出警讯，称一旦中方借贷中断，将可能危及“一带一路计划”的重要基石——中巴经济走廊（CPEC，China-Pakistan Economic Corridor）的未来。

They say that if Pakistan is forced to approach the IMF instead, it may have to disclose details of how the scheme is being funded, and even cancel some of the infrastructure projects already planned.

官员们说，一旦巴基斯坦被迫转向IMF求助，将不得不向IMF全面披露（经济走廊）项目方案的所有筹资细节，甚至可能不得不取消部分已经规划好的基础设施项目。

In a statement to FT, one government official said
“We had a detailed discussion with the Chinese and we shared our concern. The main issue is that once we are locked in an IMF programme, we will have to make full disclosure of the terms on which China has agreed to build the CPEC.”

在发给《金融时报》的一份声明中，一位巴基斯坦政府官员指出：“我们已经和中方进行了详细讨论，也转达了我们的忧虑。主要问题是，一旦我们被一个IMF的方案锁定，我们将不得不全面披露中巴经济走廊（CPEC）计划中，中方提供的各项协议。”

Another added:
“Once the IMF looks at CPEC, they are certain to ask if Pakistan can afford such a large expenditure given our present economic outlook.”

另一位官员补充道：“如果IMF有机会仔细审视‘中巴经济走廊’，他们必然提出质疑：鉴于巴基斯坦当前的经济情况，如何能够承担如此庞大的开支。”

Pakistan’s stocks of foreign reserves have been falling for the past two years, as imports rise and remittances from abroad have fallen. But the slide has gathered pace in recent few months, due in part to higher oil prices pushing up the price of imported goods.

由于进口增加以及海外汇款减少，巴基斯坦的外汇储备已经连续两年出现下滑。随着高油价导致进口商品价格上涨等因素突显，近几个月来这一下滑趋势正在进一步加快。

By the beginning of June, the State Bank of Pakistan had just $10 bn worth of foreign currency, down from $16.1 bn a year earlier and it’s not even enough to cover two months’ worth of imports.

今年6月初，巴基斯坦央行（ 即State Bank of Pakistan，巴基斯坦国家银行）所持有的外汇从一年前的161亿美元，减少到仅剩100亿美元——尚不足以支付两个月的进口。

The situation is set to become worse in 2019, when $12.7bn of external repayments are due, compared with $7.7bn this year.
Fitch issued a warning last week saying declining forex reserves and rising current account deficit were adding to Pakistan’s burgeoning external financing risks.

2019年，巴基斯坦需要偿付的到期外债就高达127亿美元——作为对比，今年的偿付总额为77亿美元——情况必然会变得更糟。
惠誉国际（Fitch）上周发布了一项警告指出，外汇储备下降、经常项目赤字上升，都正在加剧巴基斯坦萌芽中的外部融资风险。

reddit评论[一]

[–]Sir-Matilda[S] 16
This would almost certainly threaten the future of the Chinese Pakistan Economic Corridor, the cornerstone of Xi Jinpeng's Belt and Road Initiative.
How do you think this will play out? Is Pakistan's foreign currency crisis a threat to Chinese aspirations?

这几乎肯定会威胁到“‘一带一路计划’的重要基石——中巴经济走廊（CPEC）的未来”。
你们认为这事会如何发展？巴基斯坦的外汇危机会威胁到中国人的宏大抱负么？

[–]ultrachez 25
This is pretty much standard operating procedure of Pakistan. Try to get a world power to invest in them and suck them dry. They did the same with US, now its China.
Back in 2015, when CPEC was in its infancy, I repeatedly stated this was going to happen to Pakistan. Every economist told Pakistan the same. Yet, Pakistanis didn't care. You can browse their subreddit for posts on CPEC from 3 years ago, any and every cautions comment regarding the project and the governments ability to pay off its debt was downvoted as western/Indian propaganda.
Pakistanis actually believe they have somehow managed to hoodwink China. Only time will tell if China was indeed hoodwinked.

这几乎都成了巴基斯坦的标准作业程序了。努力找到一个世界强权投资于他们，然后将之榨干。他们以前这样对美国，如今则换成了中国。
回到2015年，当中巴经济走廊（CPEC）还处于萌芽状态，我就在反复强调，这事肯定会发生。每个经济学家都就此警告过巴基斯坦。然而，巴基斯坦人毫不在意。你可以去浏览他们三年前有关中巴经济走廊（CPEC）的帖子，任何谨慎对待这一项目的提醒、每一条担心政府偿债能力的评论，都被当成西方/印度的诋毁宣传来踩。
巴基斯坦人是真的相信他们有办法成功蒙蔽中国。然而只有时间能够证明——中国是否真的被蒙蔽了。

[–]Bank_Holidays 10
Hell, visit defence.pk and you can see the fervour in which they believe CPEC will turn their country into the next Dubai. When you have nothing you cling to fantasy.

嘿，到“巴基斯坦防务”网站上去逛逛，你就能看到他们是多么热衷于相信中巴经济走廊（CPEC）会把他们的国家变成下一个迪拜。当你一无所有时，总会特别喜欢幻想。

[–]Challenger108 8
Pakistan is China‘s way of securing an overland route for their Oil that can't be blockaded by Washington. (At least not very easily)
Therefore from the Chinese perspective, it's very good that Pakistan needs Chinese money to stay afloat. As that way they know they can rely on Pakistan to never give in to US demands to stop giving oil to China in a hypothetical future crises.

巴基斯坦是中国确保陆上石油供应路线，从而不被华盛顿封锁（至少不能轻易封锁）的重要途径。
因此从中国人的角度看，巴基斯坦离不开中国人的资金是件非常好的事。这样一来，他们就更能确信，假设未来发生什么危机，巴基斯坦绝不会屈从于美国的压力而切断中国的石油供应。

[–]pakiprophet 10
China would probably be happy to help with some 99-year lease of some Pakistani infrastructure. That's what 'friends' are for.
I don't think Beijing sees being asked for loans as a threat in any way.Especially by nuclear armed states that can become a client to it. Pakistan also owes its nuclear capability to Chinese nuclear help/proliferation. See how much trouble client states can cause to US and its allies in China's Eastern side.

中国可能会很乐于提供帮助，以换取一些巴基斯坦基础设施99年的租约。这样才够“朋友”嘛。
反正我是不觉得北京会把贷款要求看成是某种“威胁”，特别是当一个核武国家会因此而依附于她时。巴基斯坦的核力量同样是中国核技术帮助/培育下的产物。
不信就看看中国东边的那个附庸国，给美国及其盟友制造了多少麻烦吧。

[–]Orwellisright 3
This is alarming:
The situation is set to become worse in 2019, when $12.7bn of external repayments are due, compared with $7.7bn this year.
This is tend to happen when your civilian government is overrun and the Army along with the IS runs the show, their thought process is more in destabilization of the neighboring territories than economic development in the region of Pakistan. Unfortunately it is the common man who is has to suffer!

这就太让人不放心了：
“2019年，巴基斯坦需要偿付的到期外债就高达127亿美元——作为对比，今年的偿付总额为77亿美元——情况必然会变得更糟。”
当一个国家事实上是由军方和IS在共同掌管，而她的文官政府却饱受蹂躏时，发生这样的事不是必然么。他们考虑如何在邻国领土上制造动荡的工夫，远远多于思考如何发展巴基斯坦本地经济。不幸的是，为之受罪的却是普通人。

ChoochiPastol 2
What? This economic shitshow that Pakistan is facing is mainly the fault of PML-N's fiscal policies, army in Pakistan has a lot to answer for but this wasn't their fault. It was Dar and his policies: 
https://www.dawn.com/news/1352190

说什么呢？巴基斯坦面临的经济乱象，主要是由穆斯林联盟谢里夫派（PML-N = Pakistan Muslim league-Nawaz Sharif）的财政政策造成的。军方对巴基斯坦很多问题负有责任，但这件事可不是他们的错。错在伊萨克·达尔（Ishaq Dar，巴基斯坦财政部长）和他的政策：
https://www.dawn.com/news/1352190

[–]Porquenolosdos123 7
By the beginning of June, the State Bank of Pakistan had just $10 bn worth of foreign currency, down from $16.1 bn a year earlier and it’s not even enough to cover two months’ worth of imports.
I don’t understand this. $5B per month on just imports? Does Pakistan not export anything, or is this the expected amount after alsi taking export into account?
The entire article sounds alarmist with a hint of blackmail, which makes me wary of these facts.

"今年6月初，巴基斯坦央行（ 即State Bank of Pakistan，巴基斯坦国家银行）所持有的外汇从一年前的161亿美元，减少到仅剩100亿美元——尚不足以支付两个月的进口。"
这我就不懂了。一个月进口就要50亿美元？巴基斯坦是完全没有出口，还是说这个数字是计入了出口额之后的预期值？
整篇文章充满了暗示巴方在敲诈中国的危言耸听，使我不得不谨慎对待这些数据。

[–]blahmhin 6
Import cover of reserves is the traditional trade-based indicator of foreign exchange reserve adequacy.
It tells us how long imports can be sustained in the event of a shock.
According to the IMF, traditionally, the import coverage measure has been based on months of prospective imports, with three months’ coverage typically used as a benchmark.
Pakistan is not going to run out of money in the next 3 months. But their trade deficit is around $37B. If a country doesn't have enough money to cover a few months of imports and if it has a huge trade deficit, it becomes very difficult for the government to borrow more money. IIRC, they have already dued their currency 3 times in the last 12 months to decrease the trade deficit but it hasn't worked out very well ( in part because oil is costlier now and they can't increase the domestic petrol/diesel price to cover it because this is an election year).

进口准备金，是考察一个国家外汇储备是否充足的一个基于贸易的传统指标。它告诉我们，万一发生某些意外事件，国家还能维持多长时间的进口。
根据IMF的算法，按惯例，进口准备是基于数个月的预期进口额计算的——比较典型的参照基准是3个月。
巴基斯坦并不会在接下来3个月里把钱花光。但他们的贸易逆差大概是370亿美元。如果一国存在巨大贸易逆差，准备金又不足以支付未来数月的进口，该政府要借钱就会变得非常困难。
如果我没记错（IIRC = If I Remember Correctly），巴基斯坦在过去12个月已经进行了3次货币贬值，以削减贸易赤字，但效果甚微（部分原因是，目前石油价格过高；而因为是选举年，他们又不敢提高国内汽油/柴油价格以弥补差额）。

blinkingy 3
Pakistan lost huge chunks of their textile export business due to constant power outage (more than 50% of Pakistan's export is textile). All their business are moving to a more efficient India and Bangladesh. They have FTA with China causing an influx of cheap Chinese goods and they haven't figured out what to send the other way. Their imports are more than twice their exports.

巴基斯坦因为频繁停电，损失了一大块纺织品出口生意（纺织品占巴基斯坦出口的50%以上）。所有这些生意都正在向效率更高的印度、孟加拉转移。而他们与中国间的自由贸易协议（FTA = Free Trade Agreement）则导致廉价中国商品大量涌入，而巴基斯坦却没想好能对中国出口些什么。他们目前的进口比出口的两倍还多。

--------[二]--------

[–]ALT_F4_4_WIN 14
Any discussion of Pakistani external debt is probably incomplete without this source: (http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters/10-exter_d.pdf) As per table 9.1, the largest foreign national creditors of Pakistan (medium and long term debt only) are.
With regards to multi-lateral (NGO) creditors the ADB and World Bank/IMF comprise 90% of said external debt to NGOs at $7 billion and $10 billion respectively.
Pakistan was already in a deep, dark fiscal hole long before OBOR or Chinese investment. I suspect that the Pakistani government is deliberately avoiding the ADB and IMF because said organizations probably put Pakistan's finances in the gutter originally with their hilarious austerity prescriptions and questionable loan pre-conditions.

先看下面这个，不然任何有关巴基斯坦外债的讨论都是缺乏完整依据的：
(http://www.finance.gov.pk/survey/chapters/10-exter_d.pdf)
至于多边（非政府机构即NGO）债务，亚洲开发银行（ADB = Asian Development Bank）贷款、世界银行/IMF贷款构成了巴基斯坦多边外债的90%，分别为70亿美元和100亿美元。
早在一带一路计划或者中国投资进入之前，巴基斯坦就已经深陷财政赤字的黑洞。我怀疑巴基斯坦政府故意要避开亚开行和IMF，是因为这些机构很可能一上来就给巴基斯坦制定搞笑的财政紧缩方案、可疑的贷款预设条件，这对巴基斯坦财政来说无异引鸩止渴。

[–]ultrachez 9
You want to give us exact examples of
hilarious austerity prescriptions and questionable loan pre-conditions?
A government that needs a bailout is in no position to engage in Q.E which will put them in the same boat as Venezuela or Zimbabwe with run away inflation.
Furthermore, China is now Pakistan's largest creditor. $62 billion was loaned to Pakistan by China. Also, why link an old SBP report?

“搞笑的财政紧缩方案、可疑的贷款预设条件”
你能给我们举个具体的例子么？
一个需要财政援助的政府是没有资格搞量化宽松（QE = Quantitative Easing）的，不然就会像委内瑞拉（Venezuela）或者津巴布韦（Zimbabwe）那样，面临通货膨胀失控的局面。
另外，中国现在已经是巴基斯坦最大的债权国了，目前已经为巴基斯坦贷款620亿美元。你链接的那个巴基斯坦央行报告太旧啦。

[–]MSchumacher1[S] -4
As of now, Pakistan's economy is an horrendous shape. There was a recent downgrading of Pakistan’s rating by Moody’s from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. SBP’s net forex reserves have plunged to $9-10bn now, enough to cover imports for less than two months, from $16.145bn at end-June last year—showing a decline of $7bn or more than 40%. And, the rupee has plummeted to 121.46 to a US dollar (as of June 21) from 104.85 per dollar at end-June last year.
Now what I find most bizarre is this -
Pakistan borrowed $4bn from China in the year ending June 2018, according to government officials, and wants to keep the money flowing to avoid having to ask the IMF for a bailout.
Officials in Islamabad have warned their Chinese counterparts that if the lending dries up, it could threaten the future of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the cornerstone of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.
They say that if Pakistan is forced to approach the IMF instead, it may have to disclose details of how the scheme is being funded, and even cancel some of the infrastructure projects already planned.
It's akin to a threat to the Chinese. A "if you don't give us money, we'll disclose all our dodgy financial dealings" which is tragic considering these dodgy finances have resulted in Pakistan's economy being utterly trounced.
Sakib Sherani, a former adviser to the finance ministry, said Pakistan must raise a further $28bn this financial year to keep up with debt repayments.
The debt situation is spiralling entirely out of control. CPEC is producing very little dividends, the much touted Gwadar is - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/th ... ream-turn-nightmare - is an absolute flop thus far.
What do the Chinese do here now? Effectively treat Pakistan as a vassal state and use its market to dump goods in - https://tribune.com.pk/story/167 ... hina-eleventh-hour/ - attempts already made.
Or do they back out before it becomes a serious money losing machine? There's a point at which Beijing cannot allow for OBOR to start becoming riddled with debt and underperforming nations/assets.

截至目前，巴基斯坦经济已处于一种骇人听闻的状态。穆迪公司（Moody's）最近将巴基斯坦的信用评级从“稳定”降至“负面”。巴基斯坦央行（SBP = State Bank of Pakistan）的外汇储备从去年6月底的161.45亿美元，暴跌到仅剩90～100亿美元，只够支付不足两个月的进口——这是一年之内下滑了70亿美元，或者说超过40%。与此同时，自去年6月底以来，巴基斯坦卢比从104.85卢比兑换1美元，暴跌至121.46卢比兑换1美元（今年6月21日数据）。

而我觉得更离谱的是——
“据巴政府官员透露，截至2018年6月的上一个财政年度中，巴基斯坦共向中国借贷40亿美元，并希望能够保持这一资金流，从而免于向国际货币基金组织（IMF）寻求紧急财政援助。”
“伊斯兰堡官员们已向中方有关人士发出警讯，称一旦中方借贷中断，将可能危及“一带一路计划”的重要基石——中巴经济走廊（CPEC）的未来。“
“官员们说，一旦巴基斯坦被迫转向IMF求助，将不得不向IMF全面披露（经济走廊）项目方案的所有筹资细节，甚至可能不得不取消部分已经规划好的基础设施项目。”

这几乎是在威胁中国人了，如同是说“要是你不给我钱，我就揭露我们之间可疑的金融交易”。考虑到这些可疑交易已经导致巴基斯坦经济的彻底失败，这就悲剧啦。
巴基斯坦财政部的前顾问，沙开比·谢拉尼说：“巴基斯坦必须再筹集280亿美元资金，才能保证这个财年的债务偿付。”
这种螺旋上升式的借贷状况已经彻底失控了。中巴经济走廊（CPEC）产生的红利非常有限，备受吹捧的瓜达尔港至少目前来看绝对是个失败：
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/th ... ream-turn-nightmare
而现在中国人正在这里做什么呢？他们正在做的，其实就是把巴基斯坦作为一个附属国，利用它的市场来倾销产品罢了：
https://tribune.com.pk/story/167 ... hina-eleventh-hour/ 
或者，他们会在巴基斯坦彻底变成一个资金黑洞前撤出来？毕竟，北京不可能容许一带一路计划变成和债务、失败国家/资产搅在一起的谜团。

[–]i_already_forgot 16
I like how you're blaming China for Pakistan's problems when the article itself says Pakistan is in trouble because it can't pay for imports and remittances are falling. It's not like China is Pakistan's only creditor either, they've borrowed from the IMF and foreign banks. They're going to have to borrow from somebody one way or another.
Your article also doesn't explain how a 3 year old project is a flop.

我很欣赏你，竟能把巴基斯坦的问题全怪到中国头上。新闻里明明说的是，巴基斯坦是因为进口涨价、海外汇款减少才出的问题。中国也并非巴基斯坦唯一的债权国，巴方从IMF、其它外国银行都有借款。他们接下来不论如何也只能靠找人借钱了。
你给的文章同样没有解释清楚，为什么一个才开始3年的项目就已经失败了？

[–]MSchumacher1
I'm not blaming China, I'm blaming Pakistan. I want to know what China feels about a country they are lending to thinking they can call the shots.

我没有在怪中国，我是在指责巴基斯坦。我只是想知道，对于这个找他们借钱还认为自己能发号施令的国家，中国作何感想。

[–]Shahnaseebbabar 8
How I see things,
There will be some borrowings from the Chinese, that’s it. The corridor isn’t going anywhere since both the Countries realise its importance. Gawadar sits where 60% of maritime crosses and 60% of air traffic crosses.
Not only that many Countries are looking into it. In fact, the corridor might improve Pak - US relations as the new ambassador to US presented his Credentials to Trump he made it clear to change the relation from Aid to Trade. He met some US investors who have eyes to invest here in CPEC. Due to growing demand Pakistan might also become the largest US LNG buyer. (It was on Bloomberg.)
The corridor has also brought Pakistan and Russia closer. There’s a huge potential for Pakistan to avail both economically and geopolitically.
Eventually our economy will perform. We have so much potential here that the World recognises. It’s just that we made some blunders, got ourselves hooked to foreign aid. I remember back in 2011, some Americans told me how Pakistan will be the only Nuclear failed state who wouldn’t be able to fight Al Qaeeda/Taliban. Today the story is different. Btw, where’s Al Qaeeda?
TL;DR
Nothing much to worry.

我是这样看的：
我们还会再找中国人借些钱，但也该适可而止。经济走廊不会有任何问题，因为中巴双方都知道它有多重要。瓜达尔港地处60%的海运航线和60%的空中交通的交汇处。很多国家可不仅仅只是垂涎于它，事实上，经济走廊可能还会促进巴-美关系。巴基斯坦新任驻美大使向特朗普递交国书时，就说得很清楚，要把双方关系从援助变为贸易。他还会见了一些很想在中巴经济走廊投资的美国投资人。由于不断增长的需要，巴基斯坦还可能成为美国液化天然气（LNG）的最大买家（彭博社有相关报道）。

经济走廊还使巴基斯坦和俄罗斯走得更近。不论从经济上还是地缘政治上，巴基斯坦都能从中获得巨大潜力。
我们国家的经济迟早一定会动起来。我们有如此大的潜力，全世界都承认。只不过从前我们犯过一些错误，让我们自己过度依赖外国援助。我还记得2011年，一些美国人对我说，巴基斯坦会如何如何变成唯一一个失败的拥核国家，连基地组织/塔利班都对付不了。今天的情况可不同了。另外，基地组织在哪儿呢？
长话短说——没什么太需要担心的。

[–]poridins 3
More propaganda to fool citizens .
It's really funny how people think gawadar that this. It's not important as Suez canal . See the economy of Egypt and Suez canal contribution to it .
Chinese are building lot of infrastructure by Chinese companies by Chinese labour but Pakistan money loaned from China . That looks more like east India company than friend.

又在搞愚民宣传。
你们这么把瓜达尔港当回事，还真是搞笑。它的重要性还比不上苏伊士运河。然而看看埃及经济，以及苏伊士运河到底能对埃及有多大贡献。
中国人一直在通过中国公司，雇佣中国员工，大量修建基础设施，用的却是巴基斯坦从中国贷来的资金。怎么看怎么像东印度公司，而不是朋友的作为。

[–]Shahnaseebbabar 5
Wow.
I’m not stupid. If that’s what you think, good luck.

哇哦～
我可不是白痴。如果你真是这么想的，那只能祝你好运了。

[–]MSchumacher1 1
Improve Pakistan and US relations? The US is going to punish the Pakistanis, FATF is just an example.
Buddy, Russia doesn't care about Pakistan, it's shifting little military hardware and that's it. A few Mi-17 helicopters and that's it. Trade is a measly $500M. That is pure peasantry.
Eventually our economy will perform. We have so much potential here that the World recognises. It’s just that we made some blunders, got ourselves hooked to foreign aid. I remember back in 2011, some Americans told me how Pakistan will be the only Nuclear failed state who wouldn’t be able to fight Al Qaeeda/Taliban. Today the story is different. Btw, where’s Al Qaeeda?
The world recognises it? Can you provide a source?
Fully expecting lots of FDI flowing in from "the world".
Nothing much to worry.
Mate, Pakistan's growth was downgraded by nearly 20% to 5%, which is poor.
Bangladesh is a far, far, far better prospect.

促进美-巴关系？美国正打算惩罚巴基斯坦呢，（七国集团的）金融行动特别小组（FATF）之前不就做了一次示范？
伙计，俄罗斯才不在乎巴基斯坦，它只是想卖点军事装备过去，仅此而已。或许几架米-17直升机，仅此而已！双方贸易量只有少得可怜的5亿美元——简直就是农业级的。

”我们国家的经济迟早一定会动起来。我们有如此大的潜力，全世界都承认。只不过从前我们犯过一些错误，让我们自己过度依赖外国援助。我还记得2011年，一些美国人对我说，巴基斯坦会如何如何变成唯一一个失败的拥核国家，连基地组织/塔利班都对付不了。今天的情况可不同了。另外，基地组织在哪儿呢？“

全世界都承认？谁告诉你的？
倒是肯定会有很多”外商直接投资（FDI = Foreign Direct Investment）”从“全世界”涌来（估计暗指中国）

“没什么太需要担心的”
兄弟，巴基斯坦的经济增长率下降了近20%，仅剩可怜的5%了。
孟加拉的前景都要好的多的多的多……


------------------------[三]---------------------------------------


chilltenor
EDIT: To all those replying in the thread below, please be aware that u/MSchumacher1 aka u/MrSerious1 is an alt of u/IndoAryaI aka /u/glassganapati aka Aviator Boy, who is a racist troll that mods have had to deal with in the past. Please bear that in mind before choosing to respond to him.

[编辑]-敬告回复本帖的各位，当心那个名为“u/MSchumacher1”又名“u/MrSerious1”的人，他是以前就被处理过的“u/IndoAryaI”又名“/u/glassganapati”又名“Aviator Boy”新改的名字，是个专门钓鱼的种族主义者！如果各位要回复他，记住这一点。（注：说的就是上面猛怼巴基斯坦和巴网友那个家伙）

The purpose of this post is to lay out what the causes of Pakistan's BoP problems might be, using real financial data as the source.
From the State Bank of Pakistan's 2017 Annual report (http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY17/Chapter-05.pdf), we have the information on public and non-public external debt stocks, their duration, and FY17 debt service for those stocks. Based on that information, I have also gone ahead and calculated projected FY18 debt service for Pakistan, by loan source. The method for that calculation is as follows:
(FY17 debt service - one-off payments) * (1 + (FY17 change / FY17 debt stock)) = FY18 debt service

贴出以下内容的目的，是希望通过真实的金融数据，去分析究竟是什么原因，导致了巴基斯坦银行系统面临的问题。
从巴基斯坦央行2017年度报告中（http://www.sbp.org.pk/reports/annual/arFY17/Chapter-05.pdf），我们可以了解到的信息有：（巴国）对外借贷的公债和非公债，借贷年限，以及2017财政年度巴外债的还本付息总额。基于这些信息，我进一步计算出2018财年巴基斯坦的预期外债偿付金额。我用的计算公式如下：（注：下面公式、表格中，FY = Financial Year即财政年度——FY17即2017财年，FY18即2018财年）
（FY17偿付总额－一次性支付金额）×（1＋（FY17外债增量 ÷ FY17外债总额）） = FY18偿付总额

The below table provides a summary:

下表是计算结果一览：（单位：美元）

借贷来源    FY17的外债总额（FY17的外债增量）    借贷年限    FY17偿付总额（本金 + 利息）    预计FY18偿付总额
（公债）                
其它双边借贷（假设全部来自中国）    $58亿（+$5亿）    12～30年    $5.1亿 + $4.76亿 ≈ $10亿（其中5.1亿为1次性支付）    $5亿~$6亿
巴黎俱乐部（近似于经合组织加上俄罗斯，减去几个成员）    $120亿（+$10亿）    20～40年    $13亿    $15亿
各种商业贷款    $48亿（+$39亿）    2～3年    $5.5亿    $25亿
多边借贷（亚开行、世界银行、亚投行、IMF等）    $337亿（+$22亿）    2～24年    $15亿    $16亿
政府担保债券及其它债券    $48亿（+0）    5年    $11亿    $11亿
（非公债）                
所有非公债总额    $205亿（+$39亿）    多种    $10亿    $12亿

From the above table, it is apparent that while China has certainly made large loans to Pakistan in recent years, because of the long duration of those loans, China is not responsible for most of Pakistan's debt service burden. In contrast, the main reason Pakistan is anticipating a payments crisis is an overhang from the $4B of short-duration commercial loans it took in Q4 FY17. These loans have a repayment period of 2-3 years, which means they are driving a large spike in Pakistan's forex payments for FY18, and the proximate reason why Pakistan is experiencing problems servicing its debt.
Now, to be fair, $500M of the $3.9B spike in commercial debt did come from Chinese banks (mainly ICBC). And, if the full package of $40B of CPEC loans/investments goes through, Pakistani repayments to China may also cross $2-3B per year, in which case CPEC would become a large source of Pakistan's debt burden. But as that has yet to fully happen, it is disingenuous to blame China for Pakistan's BoP problem. Instead, blame must be laid at the sudden spike in commercial debt - mostly issued by Western banks - the Pakistani government borrowed at the end of 2017.

从上面表格可以很清楚看出，虽然中国确实在今年向巴基斯坦提供了大笔贷款，但由于这些大都是长期贷款，中国并不是造成巴基斯坦债务偿付负担的主要原因。
相反，巴基斯坦可能出现偿付危机的主要原因，是它在2017财年4季度借入的近40亿美元短期商业贷款。这些贷款的偿还期限只有2到3年，这就占据了巴基斯坦2018财年外汇偿付的很大一块，也就成了巴基斯坦债务偿付出问题的直接原因。

公道地说，在那39亿美元商业贷款中，的确有5亿美元来自中国人的银行（主要是中国工商银行，ICBC）；而且，如果整个中巴经济走廊（CPEC）的贷款/投资计划通过，巴基斯坦每年支付给中国的金额也可能超过20～30亿美元，这样的话CPEC也会成为巴基斯坦另一个沉重的债务负担。但这还并没有完全发生，把现在巴基斯坦银行系统的问题怪到中国头上，就太虚伪了。责任必须由突然激增的商业贷款来负——基本上都是西方国家银行发放的贷款，在2017年年底贷给了巴基斯坦政府。

--------------------1--------------------

[–]pbrens 10
This is great, thank you for doing this.
I only studied finance at the lowest level at university, do you mind explaining your calculations? Why is FY18 debt service reliant on the ratio of FY17 change to FY17 debt stock?

真棒，感谢楼主。
我在大学只学过最基本的金融知识，你能再解释一下你是怎么计算的吗？为什么是根据“2017财年债务增量”除以“2017财年债务总额”的比率，计算2018财年的还本付息额？

[–]chilltenor[S] 5
Why is FY18 debt service reliant on the ratio of FY17 change to FY17 debt stock?
This is assuming linear amortization of each source of debt. We don't have the exact amortization periods and interest rates for any of the debt pools so we have to use this method to approximate.

“为什么是根据‘2017财年债务增量’除以‘2017财年债务总额’的比率，计算2018财年的还本付息额？”
因为我只能假设每笔贷款采用的都是线性的分期偿还方式啊。我们没有这个债务池子里任何一笔贷款的实际分期偿还时间表、利率数据，只能用这个办法求近似值。

[–]MSchumacher1 -4
Who the hell is "u/MrSerious1"?

“u/MrSerious1”TM的是谁？

[–]chilltenor[S] 8
That's the alt you use to post on The_Donald.

就是你在“The_Donald”板块用的别名。

[–]MSchumacher1 -2
Nope. That's not me. That dude is a crazy American and white nationalist IIRC.

没有，不是我。那家伙是个美国神经病，一个白人民族主义者，如果我没记错的话（IIRC = If I Recall Correctly）。

--------------------2--------------------

thebroncoman8292 16
Thanks for laying all of this out, what will happen in 2019 because of it? Another Chinese bailout?

谢谢你给出的这些数据，从这里看，2019年会发生什么？中国再一次进行财政援助？

[–]chilltenor[S] 11
That's unclear. Most of the liquidity issues are arising from loans via Western banks, and I don't believe China is inclined to solve problems for them. China may simply insist on collateralizing its own projects with land or in-kind assets, and letting the other lenders make their own arrangements with Pakistan.

这还不清楚。流动性问题主要是由西方银行发放的贷款造成的，我不认为中国会乐意帮他们解决问题。中国可能仍会坚持以土地或者实物资产抵押化的方式来推进自己的项目，而让其它债权人自行和巴基斯坦达成解决方案。

[–]thebroncoman8292 6
Pakistan has seemingly gotten a pass by western banks for a long time. Its hard to imagine why, it's obvious they aren't the best credit risk. Same with Egypt.

看起来，西方银行长期以来一直挺迁就巴基斯坦的。很难理解为什么，他们明显不是信贷冒险的最佳对象。埃及也是一样。

[–]chilltenor[S] 8
Yep. Violence and instability, poor infrastructure, low levels of health and education, low levels of social trust and institutional maturity. But to be fair, this is standard stuff for a LDC, and China has seemed to make some of its loans to LDCs work well using astute project finance and asset collateral.

是滴。暴力事件、局势不稳、缺乏基础设施、医疗及教育水平低、社会信任感及制度成熟度低。但老实说，这些都是欠发达国家（LDC = Less Developed Country ）的通病。而且，借助精明的项目融资、资产抵押担保等方式，中国似乎在对欠发达国家贷款方面做得不错。

[–]Tachyonzero
China will definitely interested on Kashmir territories if Pakistan is willing to hand over the complete sovereignty. New Delhi will be outrage but Islamabad will be delighted to go with the deal.

如果巴基斯坦愿意完全交出克什米尔领土主权，中国肯定会很有兴趣。新德里会抓狂，但伊斯兰堡恐怕很乐意做这笔交易。

--------------------3--------------------

[–]annadpk 9
Instead of saying its not China's fault, you should thank that this problem was caught early and that China didn't lend more money to Pakistan. Secondly, why are Chinese banks lending to financially unstable countries in the first place?
Many of the posters here are naive as to how the world works. When a Chinese bank makes a loan to Pakistan, do you think the Bank officials themselves are clean? Of course not. I don't believe that China is forcing people to take loans, but the bank officials in China definitely have their own interest.
Western companies also bribe government officials in the Third world countries, so why should anyone be surprised when China does it.

与其强调这不是中国的错，你倒不如感谢巴基斯坦的问题形成得早，而中国也还没借给他们更多钱。其次，中国人的银行一开始为什么要向金融状况有问题的国家提供贷款？
帖子里好多人对这个世界的真实状况都想得太天真。当中国人的银行向巴方提供贷款时，你认为那些银行官员是清白的？当然不是。我不认为中国在强迫别人贷款，但中国的银行官员绝对在其中有个人利益。
西方公司一直都在贿赂第三世界国家的政府官员。所以如果中国人也这么做，有谁会觉得吃惊呢？

[–]chilltenor[S] 9
Here is where your bias becomes apparent. I just demonstrated that a) the problem has nothing to do with China and b) China isn't even Pakistan's largest lender, and somehow your response is all about how China, specifically, shouldn't lend more money to Pakistan? Why not make a neutral response addressing all prospective lenders to Pakistan? Why single out one lender, who isn't even the largest one?

这里就是你的偏见暴露之处：我只是陈列了a）巴国的问题与中国无关；b）中国甚至不是巴基斯坦最大的债权方。然而你的回复却全是针对中国——“中国为什么不该借钱给巴基斯坦”。何不中立一点，指责所有贷款给巴基斯坦的债权人？为什么单挑其中一个出来诘问，而且还不是最大的一个？

[–]annadpk 10
Did I blame China for the debt problems? No.
Think for a while. Would you lend money personally to Pakistan? That is the problem with many people here is they advocate policies they themselves would never follow through with personally. It is not just advocating for a war, a simple issue like lending money.
If you were in a talk show in China and you had to advocate lending US $10 Billion to Pakistan how would you make the case to the audience and the general public in China. The other side is saying money shouldn't be lent.

我有就巴基斯坦债务问题指责中国吗？没有吧。
请想一想，如果是你，会把自己的钱借给巴基斯坦吗？很多人都有这种毛病，他们总是极力鼓吹一些自己都绝不会跟进的政策。不仅是诸如鼓吹战争什么的；小到借钱这种事也一样。
假设你参加一个中国的谈话节目，必须鼓动大家向巴基斯坦贷款100亿美元，你打算怎样说服观众以及中国的一般公众？你的辩论对手则主张不应该借钱。

[–]chilltenor[S] 7
I would do it if it creates a new export market for my capital goods manufacturers, gets me access to the Indian Ocean, and stabilizes a nuclear-armed hedge against a neighbor who, for various domestic political reasons, lacks a rational foreign policy towards me.
China - EU trade is well over $400B a year. Losing $10B in debt stock to increase the security of that $400B in trade flows is a winning bet. What's more, most of that $10B goes into infrastructure projects that flow back into Chinese engineering and construction companies, keeping their muscles firm and toned for further construction projects around the world. That's what I'd say on the talk show.

我会借，如果这能为我的资本品制造商创造一个新出口市场，能得到一个进入印度洋的据点，还能使我的一个核邻居局势稳定，以作为我和另一个邻居间的蕃篱——那个邻居，是个因各种国内政治原因而一向对我缺乏理性外交政策的家伙。
中国-欧盟（EU）贸易额一年远超4千亿美元（注：2017年在6千亿上下），就算可能因债务问题损失100亿美元，但能为这4千亿贸易流提供安全保障，也是稳赚不赔的赌注。更何况，这100亿美元大都投入到基建项目中，从而流回中国工程建设企业，使他们保持活力，以迎接更多遍布全球的建设项目。
在你那个谈话节目里，这就是我要说的。

[–]annadpk 11
Well, the other person is going to argue that there are millions of people who live below the poverty line in China, and the money could be better spent in China.
From an economic perspective for China, there isn't much benefit, its more to make Pakistan stronger economically. Will it make Pakistan more stable? not really. Pakistan stability is less related to economics, and more political.
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/th ... ream-turn-nightmare

好吧，你的辩论对手会说，中国还有数以百万的人民生活在贫困线之下，更应该把这些钱花在国内。
从经济角度看，中国获得的利益不大，更多的是在帮助巴基斯坦的经济发展。但这会使巴基斯坦更稳定么？不见得。巴基斯坦的稳定和经济关系不大，和政治关系很大：
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/th ... ream-turn-nightmare

[–]chilltenor[S] 12
Well, the other person is going to argue that there are millions of people who live below the poverty line in China, and the money could be better spent in China.
Sure, one can always make that argument regarding nearly any foreign policy endeavor. As with all endeavors, then, it boils down to a question of whether China is gaining more from this investment than the opportunity cost of that capital. I've already stated that China does. What are your arguments that China doesn't?

“好吧，你的辩论对手会说，中国还有数以百万的人民生活在贫困线之下，更应该把这些钱花在国内。”
是啊，几乎任何外交尝试都可以被人用这句话来怼。然而，与其它所有尝试一样，归根结底是要问，中国能否从这一资本投入中获得比机会成本更多的利益。我已经论证了“中国能”；而你要如何证明“中国不能”？
​