千禧一代将结束美国对世界事务的主导 [美国媒体]

作者：杜克大学公共政策和政治学教授布鲁斯•詹特森

Millennials, the generation born between1981 and 1996, see America’s role in the 21st century world in ways that, as arecently released study shows, are an intriguing mix of continuity and changecompared to prior generations.

千禧一代即出生在1981至1996年的世代，新近公布的一项研究显示：相比前几个世代，他们是以一种饶有意趣的连续性和变化的混合来看待美国在21世纪世界中的角色的。

For over 40 years the Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs, which conducted the study, has asked the American publicwhether the United States should “take an active part” or “stay out” of worldaffairs.

40多年来，进行这项研究的芝加哥全球事务委员会一直在询问美国公众美国是应该“积极参与”还是“不参与”世界事务。

This year, an average of all respondents –people born between 1928 and 1996 – showed that 64 percent believe the U.S.should take an active part in world affairs, but interesting differences couldbe seen when the numbers are broken down by generation.

今年，所有受访者（出生于1928-1996年间的人）的平均数表明：有64%的人认为美国应该积极参与世界事务，但这个数字随着世代推移而跌落时，也能发现有趣的不同。

Generational views on world affairs

不同世代对世界事务的看法



（图解：千禧世代中只有51%的人表示，积极参与世界事务对这个国家的未来是最好的）

The silent generation, born between 1928and 1945 whose formative years were during World War II and the early Cold War,showed the strongest support at 78 percent. Support fell from there througheach age group. It bottomed out with millennials, of whom only 51 percent feltthe U.S. should take an active part in world affairs. That’s still moreinternationalist than not, but less enthusiastically than other age groups.

沉默世代出生在1928至1945年间，形成期在二战和冷战早期，他们身上展现出对此最高的支持，达到了78%。支持度从那时起随着每个下降的年龄段而跌落。到千禧一代这里降至最低点，只有51%的人认为美国应该积极参与世界事务。国际主义者仍然居多，但不如其他年龄段的人狂热。

（译注：沉默世代（silent generation，出生于1928-1945）:指的是艾森豪威尔时代大部分美国人的心理，他们满足于默默遵循流行的商业及社会准则）

Party identification by generation

不同世代的政党认同



（图解：红色指代认同共和党，蓝色认同民主党，灰色为独立人士）

There is some anti-Trump effect visiblehere: Millennials in the polling sample do identify as less Republican – 22percent – and less conservative than the older age groups. But they also werethe least supportive of the “take an active part” view during the Obamaadministration as well.

这里能看到一些反特朗普带来的效应：调查样本中的千禧一代认同自己是共和党的更少，只有22%，而且不如更年长年龄段保守。但他们在奥巴马政府时期，也是最不支持“积极参与”观点的。

Four sets of additional polling numbershelp us dig deeper.

额外的四组得票数有助于我们的深入挖掘。

• Military power: Only 44 percent of millennials believe maintainingsuperior military power is a very important goal, much less than the othergenerations. They also are less supportive of increasing defense spending.

军力：只有44%的千禧一代认为保持超强军力是非常重要的目标，比其他世代低得多。支持增加国防支出的也更少。



• Alliances and international agreements: Millennials are especiallysupportive of NATO, at 72 percent. In this measure, they are close to the othergenerations’ levels of NATO support. Their 68 percent support for the Parisclimate agreement is higher than two of the other three age groups. And their63 percent support for the Iran nuclear nonproliferation agreement is even withboomers and higher than Gen X.

联盟和国际协议：千禧世代特别支持北约，支持率达72%。以此衡量，他们接近其他世代对北约的支持度。他们对巴黎气候条约68%的支持率，比其他的三个世代中的两个要高。他们对伊朗核不扩散协议63%的支持率，与婴儿潮世代相仿，高于X世代。

Generational support for NATO

各世代对北约的支持度



• Globalization and key trade issues: Millennials’ 70 percentagreement with the statement that “globalization is mostly good for the UnitedStates” is higher than all the other age groups. Similarly, 62 percent believethat NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) is good for the U.S. economy –well above the others surveyed. The margin is also positive although narroweron the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement.

全球化与关键贸易问题：千禧世代中有70%同意“全球化多半对美国有利”的说法，比所有其他年龄段都要高。类似地，他们中有62%的人相信北美自由贸易协定对美国经济有益，远高于受访的其他人。认为获利为正，虽然在跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）上更有限。

These and other polls show millennials tohave a world view that, while well short of isolationist, is also not asassertively and broadly internationalist as previous generations.

这些调查以及其他的民意测验显示千禧世代有着这样的世界观：虽然孤立主义者相当少，但也不如之前世代那么自负乃至露骨的国际主义。

Millennials’ worldview and its implications

千禧世代的世界观及其影响

Why do millennials see the world the waythey do? And with millennials now the largest generation and emerging intoleadership positions, what does it mean for American foreign policy?

为什么千禧世代如此这般地看待世界？同时，如今千禧世代是人数最多的世代且正大批走上领导岗位，这对美国的外交政策意味着什么？

In my view, the “why” flows from threeformative experiences of millennials.

在我看来，这个“为什么”是缘于千禧世代的三种成长体验。

First, the United States has been at war inAfghanistan and Iraq for close to half the lives of the oldest millennials, whowere born in 1981, and most of the lives of the youngest, born in 1996. DespiteAmerica’s vast military power, neither war has been won.

首先，美国在阿富汗和伊拉克打仗的时间，已达到千禧世代最年长的那些人一半的生命长度，即那些出生在1981年的人，同时也占到了最年轻的那些出生在1996年人大部分的生命，这两场战争没有一场是赢的。

So, from the millenials’ point of view, whymake military superiority a priority? Why spend more on defense? Why not beskeptical about other uses of force?

那么，从千禧世代的视角来看，为什么要以军事优势为优先？为什么要在国防上支出更多？为什么不怀疑武力的其他使用方法？

Second, as a generation which is generally“defined by diversity,” as Brookings demographer William H. Frey describesthem, millennials take a less extreme view of Islam. A 2015 Pew Research Centerpoll showed only 32 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds agreed that Islam was morelikely than other religions to encourage violence among its followers. Comparethat to 47 percent of 30- to 49-year-olds and a little more than half of thetwo older age groups.

其次，作为大体上“由多样性定义”的一代人，如布鲁金斯学会人口统计专家威廉·弗雷描述的那样，千禧世代对伊斯兰教的看法没有那么极端。皮尤研究中心在2015年的一项民意调查显示：18到29岁人群中只有32%的人同意伊斯兰教相比其他宗教更可能怂恿其追随者实施暴力。相比于30到49岁人群的47%，以及两个更年长年龄段的略微过半。



In this respect in particular, we’d do wellto learn from millennials’ more measured views.

特别是在这个方面，我们最好要向千禧世代更审慎的观点学习。

1、Neil S. Grigg，科罗拉多州立大学土木与环境工程学教授
These are interesting results. Many other changes can be noted. At our university there is a change in “internationaleducation.” A Russian professor told methat interest in studying that language has dropped way off. Involvement of faculty in foreign aidprojects is way down. English isunderstood more around the world and becoming more of a common language. You can see the homogenization of cultures,especially between US, Europe and Latin America. I have not digested all of the information tohave an opinion about it, but it is clearly part of “global change.” Maybe Professor Jentleson can make some senseof all this change and tell us what it means for global affairs in general.
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这是些很有意思的结果。可以注意到许多其他的变化。在我们的大学里，“国际教育”存在着变化。一个俄语教授告诉我：人们学习那门语言的兴趣已经在下降。参加援外项目的教员也在下降。在全世界能听懂英语的人更多了，而且它正在变成一门通用语言。你能发现各种文化的同质化，尤其是美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲之间。我还没有完全消化这些信息好对它产生一种观点，但很明显这是“全球性变化”的一部分。也许詹特森教授可以阐明所有这些变化的含义，并告诉我们它在整体上对全球事务的意义。

2、Richard Hart
My dad: the greatest generation.Milennials: the useless generation. Glad I’m older, hope I’m outta here beforeit all collapses into a milennial-run third world shithole.

我爸：最伟大的一代。千禧世代：废柴的一代。

很庆幸我更年长一些，希望我能在这里沦为千禧世代执掌的第三世界屎坑之前离开这里。

3、Sean Meehan
Millennials are no more doomed to repeathistory than the rest of us, who have failed to learn from mistakes of thepast. Exerting influence in the world with clear and humanitarian goals is nota shame, unless we fail to do so.

千禧世代并不比我们其他人更容易重蹈历史覆辙，是我们没能从过去吸取教训。以清晰且符合人道的目标在世界上施加影响不会让人羞耻，除非我们做不到。