中国的石油期货合约开始展露锋芒 [美国媒体]

China's Oil Futures Contract Is Beginning To Show Its Teeth

中国的石油期货合约开始展露锋芒



So far so good. Petrodollar will be showing signs of wear-and-tear in the very near future.

到目前为止一切顺利。而将在不久的将来，石油美元会出现日渐不支的迹象。

We have been documenting the demise of the dollar hegemony for the past several years and the past two years the pace of the demise seems to be moving like a rocket.

在过去的几年里，我们一直在记录美元霸权的消亡，在过去的两年里，这种消亡的速度似乎像火箭一样在加速。

All the little details being handled since the global financial meltdown in 2008 are now converging and one of the biggest pieces is now showing its teeth – the Chinese oil futures contract priced in yuan is growing in such a way that by the years end, at the current pace of growth, this contract will present a real challenge to the petrodollar.

美元自2008年全球金融熔断以来所面临的各种细小的问题，现在正在聚集起来，其中最大的一个问题现在正展露锋芒，也就是以人民币定价的中国石油期货合约，它正以这样的方式增长，以至于以目前的增长速度计算，到了本年末，这一合约将给石油美元带来真正的挑战。

"China’s newly-launched crude oil futures on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange saw its trading volume surge to a record high in early June, a positive sign that a wide variety of financial market players have been keen to contribute liquidity into the new derivative market.

“中国最近在上海国际能源交易所启动的原油期货，6月初的交易量飙升至创纪录高位，这是一个积极信号，表明各种金融市场参与者一直热衷于为这一新衍生品市场提供流动性。



While this market is still in the earliest of stages of development the pace of growth seems to be significant and catching a lot of people by surprise. It appears the first major hurdle to catching the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contracts will be to surpass the Dubai Mercantile’s contact that averages more than 54,000 daily daily contacts. With the current pace of the Chinese contract that hurdle will be in the rearview mirror by the end of June and certainly by the end of July it will be confirmed.

尽管这一市场仍处于发展的早期阶段，但其增长速度似乎相当可观，令许多人感到意外。它追赶布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油合约(WTI)所面临的第一个主要障碍，似乎将是超过迪拜商品交易所，后者的日均交易量超过5.4万手。按照中国合约目前的节奏，它将在6月底把这个障碍甩在身后，当然在7月底之前这一点也会得到确认。

The two major contracts, Brent and WTI, have a combined daily total of 2.6 million contracts so the Chinese contract has some ways to go before it poses any kind of real threat but it is well on its on way to establishing itself as a global force.

布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质原油这两种主要的原油期货合约每天总共有260万手合约，因此中国的原油期货合约还有一些路要走，才能给它们任何真正的威胁，但它正在努力逐步将自己打造成一支全球力量。

"Although the new INE crude futures market has been widely considered a success so far, it is still very small compared with mature international crude benchmarks in terms of trading volume and open interest, market participants noted.

“市场人士指出，尽管INE这一新的原油期货市场迄今已被广泛认为是成功的，但与成熟的国际原油基准相比，它在交易量和未平仓合约方面仍非常小。

Currently, ICE Brent and NYMEX light sweet crude futures are the two leading global benchmarks.

目前，ICE布伦特原油期货和纽约商品交易所轻质原油期货是全球两大主要基准。

The Brent futures’ trading volume averaged 1 million lots/day on ICE in May, with open interest seen at an average of 2.6 million lots in the month, according to data on ICE website." Source – Platts

根据ICE网站的数据，5月份布伦特原油期货的交易量平均为100万手/日，当月的未平仓量合约平均为260万手。”来源为普氏能源资讯。

We should have better data and a better view after the July numbers print. My guess is, the new China contract is going to continue growing and petrodollars are going to continue waning.

当7月的数字出现，我们应该会获得更好的数据以及更好的观察。我的猜测是，中国这一新兴合约将继续增长，而石油美元将继续走弱。

Mark of Zerro
Yup. But then again, another case of a little too little and a little too late? Any country (do you hear me, Brussels?) that arbitrarily bans stock market short-selling - or selling at all - will never gain global financial traction.

是啊。但是又说了，这难道又是一个“规模太小”、“为时已晚”的例子？任何（你听到我说的了吗？布鲁塞尔。）武断的禁止股票市场做空或者根本不许出售的国家，永远不能获得全球金融的注意力。

dirty fingernails
This is part of China's manuever in the trade war. Take away Uncle Scam's credit card and he becomes much more manageable for the entire world.

这是中国应对贸易战策略。拿走骗子山姆大叔的信用卡，对于全世界来说，他就会变得更容易对付一些。

Nexus789
They put this in place before Trump's wrecking ball approach to trade. China plans long term. You can see that emerging new with respect to the move to urban living in China, the massive growth of STEM graduates, the 'Belt and Road' projects, etc.

在特朗普砸碎贸易之前，他们就把这件事做成了。中国计划长远。通过中国向城市生活的转变，大量STEM（科学Science，技术Technology，工程Engineering，数学Mathematics）专业毕业生的增长，一带一路计划等等，就可以看到这一股新兴的力量。



PrezTrump
you cant be x2. you make sense.

你不能X2，你说的对。

PrezTrump
petroyuan is a joke. good luck.

石油人民币是个笑话。祝好运。

PrezTrump
comparing apples to dog shit ($ to juan) then dropping the units? couldnt you have been a bit more creative?
tyler is saying he knows you clowns dont know finance, you want to believe so bad that all he has to do is throw out nonsense charts.
the reason you need to reread 4+ times is because the words are nonsense.

把苹果与狗屎对比（美元VS人民币），然后删掉单位？你还能更有创造力吗？
tyler在说他知道的事情，而你们这些小丑则对金融一窍不通，你们如此的想要相信他的话，而他所做的无非是丢出一些无稽之谈的图表。
你们需要把原文重读至少4遍，因为都是在胡说八道。

JibjeResearch
I didn't read the article...
China will not lose the trade war for...
1. PetroYuan
2. Belt Road
3. SCO nations
4. ASEAN
5. South Asia (SAARC) nations
6. Africa
7. BRICS, and Turkey is looking to join.
8. CELAC
The EU doesn't seem to get upset at those organizations.
The mighty USA needs some friends...
DoD will not be effective fighting an economic war. It only brings Opoiod to kill Americans.
America needs to wake up!

我没有读这篇文章……
中国不会输掉这场贸易战，是因为：
1、石油人民币
2、一带一路
3、上合组织国家
4、东盟
5、南亚（南亚区域合作联盟）国家
6、非洲
7、金砖国家，而且土耳其正在寻求加入
8、拉美加勒比共同体
欧盟似乎并不对这些组织感到不安。
而强大的美国需要一些朋友了……
美国国防部在打经济战争方面不管用。它只会带来杀死美国人的毒品。
美国人需要醒醒了！

PrezTrump
and you need some crazy pills.

而你这个疯子需要吃药了。

JibjeResearch
I'm taking NMN ... so I can live longer to witness... us getting fucked!

我在吃肾上腺素，所以我可以获得更久一点，见证美国的完蛋！

ChaoKrungThep-PrezTrump
You're an example of what the Chinese are up against - stupid, reactive, short term attention. That is, a loser.

你就是中国所面对的一个例子，愚蠢、被动、只关注短期。也就是失败者。

PrezTrump
sure feels like we are winning. but what do i know. i dont read ZH like youdo. you must be soooo smart.

当然，我觉得我们就要赢了。但我知道什么。我并不像你那样读ZH。你肯定聪明过头了。

Juggernaut
Winning what, exactly? The largest national debt on the planet? The fastest to due their currency to 0?

你们究竟赢了什么？全球最大的债务国？货币最快贬值为0的国家？

PrezTrump
living comfy here. sure beats concrete walls and gray cold war era cities.

我们这里生活很舒适，肯定超过水泥墙和灰色的冷战年代的城市。

Conscious Reviver PrezTrump
Hold on. You're Free This, the monkey guy. Exact same empty stocato rap.

打住。你请随意，猴子。还是那样腹内空空的饶舌者。

tahoebumsmith
Well the last time the Petro Dollar got challenged “We Came, We Saw, he died...hahahaha” I don’t think it’s gonna be so easy with the Chinks!

好吧，上次石油美元遭到挑战，是“我们来了，我们看到了，他死了，哈哈哈哈”。但面对中国佬，我觉得不会这么容易了！

JibjeResearch
America can not afford a 5 fronts war!

美国人打不起一场5线战争！

The Greek horse
Imitation and counterfeiting can only take you so far

模仿和伪造只能让你们走到这一步。

Giant Meteor
Good point.

好观点。

dirty fingernails
The same could be said for intimidation and bluster

恐吓和咆哮也是如此。

Giant Meteor
Yes, and I think this just about covers everybody !

是的，我觉得这句话适合所有人！

silverer
How do you say "mission accomplished" in Chinese?

用中文怎么说“任务完成”？

truthalwayswinsout
Where do they get these people? No one, not even the Chinese want Yuan. Chinese are cashing in their yuan for dollars as fast as they can.

他们从哪里找来那些人的？一个都没有，甚至中国人都不想要人民币。中国人正在用尽可能快的速度兑换美元。

dirty fingernails
Most of why they cash in for dollars is because yuan isn't the reserve currency. Some is the ongoing duation.

他们兑换美元的大部分原因，是人民币不是储备货币。有些人是由于它在持续贬值。

Juggernaut
10 years ago 8 Yuan got you one dollar- now it is 6 Yuan to the dollar- how is that devauation?

10年前，8人民币可以换到1美元，现在是6人民币对1美元，这是哪门子的贬值？

dirty fingernails
I wasn't aware of the exchange rate. I was just basing that on the reported duation. Thanks for the update.

我没有注意汇率。我只是根据所报告的货币贬值。谢谢你的更新。

PrezTrump
most chinese know how badly they will get it with the coming depreciation. but they cant get their cash out.

大多数中国人都知道，随着人民币即将贬值，他们的日子会不好过。但是他们不能把钱取出来。



Giant Meteor
We talkin real estate, cars, or casinos ?

我们说说不动产、汽车、或者赌场？

Global Douche
This will also manifest itself in precious metals and due to the same exchange.

这也将体现在贵金属中，并由于同样的交换。

dirty fingernails
Yep, because it ties gold to oil, which is quite a brilliant move when you have a massive stockpile. The world isn't going to stop needing oil and both gold and oil have *highly* manipulated prices. Part of the brilliance is that it also supports Russia, the other main half of the resistance against the US Empire

是的，因为它把黄金和石油联系在一起，当你持有大量储备的时候，这是一个非常聪明的举动。世界对石油的需求不会停止，黄金和石油都具备被高度操纵的价格。这种做法的部分聪明之处在于，它也支持了俄罗斯，这是对抗美国帝国的另一个主要力量。

Jack Oliver
Russia is the ‘muscle’ - China is the financial Zio/US ‘Nemesis’ !
I doubt Russia would have got through the unrelenting attack on the Rouble ( 2014 ) and the oil price ‘manipulation’ crisis - without China !
China will also come to the rescue of Iran’s currency !
China CAN print ( and they have to ) faster than the the FED !!

对犹太复国主义/美国而言，俄罗斯是“肌肉”，中国是金融方面的“复仇天使”！
我怀疑，如果没有中国，俄罗斯是否能挺过对卢布的无情打击，以及“被操纵的”石油价格危机！
中国也会来拯救伊朗的货币！
中国印钱的速度能够比美联储更快（而且他们必须这样做）！

PrezTrump
what is putin spiking your milk with?

普京用什么东西给你的牛奶加放射性？

Conscious Reviver
Shut up and go away. You rattle like an empty trash can.

闭嘴滚一边去。你就像一个空垃圾桶一样响个不停。

IronForge
Finally, the PetroUSD will no longer be the Sole Venue to buy Hydrocarbons.
In addition to the CHN_INE, CHN and IND are in talks about a Buyers' Club of Sorts; and IRN already trumped the PetroUSD by asking Majors to pay with their own Currencies, Au, and/or settle via Bartering.
Don't forget: PetroCNY Contract Holders can trade them in for Au in CHN and other Exchanges.
Brave New World. No longer a Sellers' Market. I expect Crude Px to steadily decline as the CHN_INE Volume approaches WTI's - especially if IND joins in on the Buyers' Club.

最终，石油美元将不再是购买碳氢化合物的唯一途径。
除了中国的INE，中国和印度正在讨论《买家俱乐部》的做法；而且伊朗已经抛售了石油美元，要求买家用他们自己的货币、欧元或者通过物物交换的方式购买石油。
不要忘了：石油人民币合约的持有者可以在中国和其他交易所将其兑换为欧元。
这是个美丽的新世界。不再是个卖方市场。我期待原油PX稳步降低，而中国的INE体量达到WTI的水平，尤其是当印度加入这个买家俱乐部。