美媒：避免与中国开战的丑陋真相 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：mmmmm-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



While ISIS is the threat that keeps Washington policymakers up at night, it’s the rise of China that has international relations theorists in a panic. Graham Allison argues persuasively that China’s rise portends a classic Thucydides Trap. His research shows that in twelve of the last sixteen cases over the past five hundred years, when a rising power challenged an established one, the result was war. John Mearsheimer, somewhat more bluntly, warns that “China cannot rise peacefully.” It’s an impending great power clash that makes the threat from ISIS look like child’s play.

虽然ISIS的威胁让华盛顿的决策者们在晚上睡不着觉，但是是中国的崛起，在国际关系理论界中引起恐慌。埃里森辩称，中国的崛起预示着一个经典的“修昔底德陷阱”。他的研究表明在过去五百年中，在最近的十六起事件中，有十二个是，当一个不断上升的权力向一个稳定的权力挑战，结果是战争。约翰米尔斯海默，更直言，警告说，“中国不可能和平崛起。”这是一个即将到来的大国冲突，使得ISIS的威胁看起来像儿戏。

But China threatens the United States only insofar as America insists on being the dominant power in China’s backyard, a policy that actually contributes very little to U.S. security. If we abandon our strategy of primacy, the risk of a clash will shrink away. If we try to contain China’s rise, on the other hand, these predictions of doom may prove right.

但是只有在美国坚持成为中国后院的主宰力量的情况下中国才会威胁到美国，美国所采取的政策实际上无益于美国自身的安全。如果我们放弃我们的战略，这一冲突的风险会消失。如果我们试图遏制中国的崛起，另一方面，这些阴暗的预测就可能被证明是正确的


-------------译者：qinxiangyuan-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Zephon • 4 hours ago
Thank you John Glaser for the common sense that seems beyond the thinking of the Beltway - often stuck in Cold War thinking that was not even appropriate 90 years ago when the ideation of the containment of China began.
We have enough problems at home. And spending over $500 billion a year of taxpayer dollars containing the spread of socialism is sickening to the average American who is increasing in despair.

感谢John Glaser分享这些好像超出比华盛顿方面考虑的范围的常识。 华盛顿经常陷入冷战思维，像在90年代牵制中国发展
 我们自己已经有很多的问题了。我们每年花费5000亿美元来遏制社会主义的扩散，这让渐渐陷入绝望的美国人民感到恶心。

delta 5297 • 7 hours ago
Oh my god, it's another hyper-realist. Blah blah blah, America, hegemony, East Asia, blah. It's not about hegemony, or power. It's about the the liberal international order and the principles that underpin it. It's about protecting the weaker Asian countries from the 800-pound gorilla in the room called China. If China were to play nice with its neighbors and respect the status quo over Taiwan, we wouldn't have to worry about them. Yes, China CAN rise peacefully...the question is whether it chooses to do so.

我日，又一个喷子（现实主义宣传者），bb个没完，美帝呀东亚呀 说些废话 这和霸权有什么关系呀  这是关系到巩固自由主义国际秩序，这是关系到中国如何对待周边弱小国家，如果能友好对待邻国，尊重台湾问题的现状，那么我们也不用担心了。是的，中国可以和平崛起，问题是中国会这么做吗？

-------------译者：氯化钠⊙▽⊙槑-审核者：dodo1864------------

Serge Krieger  delta 5297 • 7 hours ago
Oh my God. Another beautiful mind. This is called real politic. If you are so eager to protect those poor Asian nations from 800 lbs Chinese gorilla, please, enlist, go, fight and die for them. Ah, sorry, you expect others to do all this for you?
Sooner or later, USA will have to pick all things dangling beyond Americas and go back home. After WW2 and especially after 1991 situation was exceptional. Now it is back to normal. China is the lord of Southern Eastern Asia, Russia is in Eastern Europe and parts of Central Asia and you in Americas. Everybody is happy and little monkeys know their own place.

天啊。。我有另一个美好的想法，叫现实政治。如果你这么急吼吼地(ˇˍˇ) 想从八百磅的中国猩猩手里拯救可怜的亚洲国家，那就请开始征兵，出征，战斗，然后为他们而死。啊...对不起，你希望别人为你做这些事儿？
美国人迟早得从世界其他地方打包滚蛋回家。二战之后，特别是1991年的情况是例外。现在要回归正常了。中国是东亚，南亚的主人，俄罗斯是东欧和中亚的主人。所有人都是一脸幸福，几乎没人知道自己该处在哪个位置。

-------------译者：爱猫的男人-审核者：氯化钠⊙▽⊙槑------------

RT Myths Debunked  Serge Krieger • 6 hours ago
You do know who the greatest champions of Realism were, right? The imperial powers of the 19th century and 20th century dictators, including Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and Tojo.
People throw around these political science terms often not knowing what they're talking about, and too often it's allowed to slide.
Why do you think Putin has tried to Apologize for and revitalize the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (Russo-Nazi collaboration to divvy up Europe)
You're quite explicitly talking about a world in which world wars occur between great powers when they can't decide on which countries to carve up for themselves.... Worse, that's to be anticipated and quite acceptable

你肯定知道谁是最伟大的现实主义冠军，对吗？19世纪到20世纪的中央集权帝制独裁者们，包括斯大林，希特勒，墨索里尼和东条英机。
人们已经把他们的政治科技术语去掉经常不知道他们讲什么，长期如此结果就跑偏了。为什么你认为普京曾经试过为之道歉和让苏德互不侵犯协议（苏联德国关于瓜分欧洲的合作）再次新生？你十分明确的在讨论这样一个世界，当强权国家们不能就决定为自己瓜分哪些国家达成共识时，他们之间就会引发世界大战。。。糟糕，这看来可期而且十分合理。

 -------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Serge Krieger  RT Myths Debunked • 6 hours ago
Also, how about USA destroying numerous countries and killing millions in the process?

顺便，美国摧毁的数不清的国家和在这个过程中杀掉的数百万人怎样了？ 
 
Dan H  Serge Krieger • an hour ago
So what did Stalin do?

 所以斯大林做了什么？
 
Serge Krieger  RT Myths Debunked • 6 hours ago
Bismark buddy, Bismark.
Hitler, Mussolini and Tojo were not were not real politic masters. Some were plain mad man. Stalin actually was.
You are sly dudes who have used others weakness to steal and rob , so, your time is almost up.

 俾斯麦老友，俾斯麦。
希特勒，墨索里尼和东条英机不是真正的政治大师。有些是绝对的疯子。斯大林毫无疑问是。
你是狡猾的利用他人弱点偷窃或者抢劫的伙计们，所以，你的时间也差不多到点了。
 
CT  Serge Krieger • 5 hours ago
Well, how much time do you think we have?

 不错，所以你认为我们还有多少时间。
 
Serge Krieger  CT • 5 hours ago
Not much in historical terms.

从历史角度来说不多了。

 -------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Dan H  Serge Krieger • an hour ago
Sooner or later russia will have to give Crimea back to the Ukraine or it faces sanctions forever. If russia and china want to expand its current borders both their economies will crash and you'll revert back to communism.
 
早晚俄罗斯要把克里米亚还给乌克兰要么就接受永久制裁。如果俄罗斯和中国想推进他们目前的国境线，这两个二货的经济都会崩塌，然后你会再次回归到共产主义。
 
mr.wiener  Serge Krieger • an hour ago
"And I for one welcome our new insect overlords..."

而我是举手欢迎我们卑鄙新盟主的人之一。

cherrysan  delta 5297 • an hour ago
Blah blah blah. How much law and history do you know about that neighborhood? Can you enlighten us?

巴拉巴拉巴拉。你对该地区的法律和历史了解多少呢？你能教导我们？

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：op123258------------

A Chinese  delta 5297 • 3 hours ago
History showed that only the 'God-fearing morally defunct evil puritans' American and the unrepentant war criminal Japanese have murdered, slaughtered, abused, colonized, exploited, stole and looted nations in the Western Pacific. Those two psychopaths have never cared liberal international order, all they care is to abuse the West Pacific Asia in according to their mindset belonging to the past, enslave the West Pacific Asia in according their way stalled in the old days colonialism and plunged the West Pacific Asia into chaos and fear in according to their zero-sum cold war mentality.
Both the 'God-fearing morally defunct evil puritans' and 'the unrepentant war criminal' are aliens from faraway land; history showed aliens from far away lands never have the well-beings of the local people at heart, they are invaders came to steal, loot and kill, they are wolves in sheep skin and the monsters in human masks with nuclear bombs and lethal weapons to kill everything moves in the West Pacific Asia as they did in the Vietnam War.
All nations in the Western Pacific must be united and fight against the aliens from the far away land and stop them wreaking havoc in the Western Pacific Asia.

历史表明，只有“敬畏上帝（却）道德缺失的邪恶清教徒下的美国和死不悔改犯有战争罪的日本”有谋杀，屠杀，虐待，殖民，剥削，偷窃和掠夺 西太平洋国家的历史。这两个变态从来都不在乎什么自由的国际秩序，他们关心的是如何按照他们过去的观念在西太平洋的亚洲地区为所欲为 ，如何现在已经停止的、过去的殖民主义来奴役西太平洋亚洲地区的人民，如何按照他们的零和冷战思维使西太平洋亚洲地区陷入混乱和恐惧。
“敬畏上帝却道德缺失的邪恶清教徒和“死不悔改的战争罪犯“都是从远方来的局外人；历史表明， 这些从遥远的土地而来的局外人，根本不在乎当地人的幸福安康，他们是来偷窃，抢劫和杀人的侵略者，他们是披着羊皮的狼，是戴着人类面具的怪物，他们带着核弹和致命的武器杀死在西太平洋的亚洲地区的一切活着的东西，就像他们在越南战争中做的一样。
所有西太平洋地区的国家必须团结起来对抗这些从遥远的土地而来的局外人，阻止他们在西太平洋的亚洲地区的实施的大破坏。
译者注：the West Pacific Asia似乎不是正确用法，应该指的是西太平洋地区的亚洲部分（包括中国南海地区)；本评论有欠客观，大家看看就好。

-------------译者：op123258-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

David W • 4 hours ago
While these all sound logical in theory, U.S. does not yet have the imperative to retrench. That is to say, U.S. still possesses an overwhelming military power, a dominant dollar, and a preeminent economy.
All of these premises may change in the next decade.
1) Sino-American arm race will inflate weapon prices, and hence reduce military size, till the day U.S. finds out that She cannot be everywhere at the same time.
2) Globalization of Euro and RMB will push dollar into a proper position commensurate of US economy's current weight, not its weight in 1950s or 1970s.
3) Greater R&D investment by China, currently only second to US and rapidly growing, will transform Chinese economy into something more similar to that of US. Japanese products used to represent poor quality, too. Things change.

这些话理论上很合逻辑。美国现在并没有迫切的缩减开支。换句话说，美国现在仍然占据着压倒性优势的军事力量，强势货币美元，首屈一指的经济体。
所有这些前提在今后十年可能会有所改变。
1)中美的军事竞赛抬高武器价格，因此降低军事规模，知道有一天美国发现自己不能同时在世界上无孔不入刷存在感。
2）欧元和人民币的国际化将把美元拉到与美国经济流通比重相当的合适位置，比重不会高于二十世纪五十年代和七十年代的规模。
3）当前落后于美国处于第二位但快速增长着的更大的中国所投资的研发活动，也将使中国经济摆脱低质量形象，类似于美国日本产品曾经被打过的标签一样。事情在改变。

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bankotsu • 6 hours ago
"If Washington is tempted to maintain or expand its reach in East Asia to contain China’s rise.."
U.S. is already at it.

 ”如果华盛顿是在孤注一掷想要维持或者扩张自己的在东亚势力来遏制中国的崛起的话。。。“
美国已经这么做了。
 
RT Myths Debunked • 6 hours ago
Nobody is doing anything to the unelected regime in Beijing. The whole world, especially the US, have bent over backwards to walk it into the international system.
The autocrats in Beijing are the ones threatening East Asian countries, occupying islands and reefs through force since January, 1974, building new ones, and showing their disdain for regional democracies like Japan and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

 没人会对这个在北京没有民选的政体做什么。整个世界特别是美国都转头回去奔赴那里的互联网大会。
这个在北京的独裁政府才是东亚国家的威胁，从1974年一月开始靠武力不断占领岛屿和礁石，不停修建些新的，对区域内的民主国家像日本和中华民国（台湾）嗤之以鼻。
 
Serge Krieger  RT Myths Debunked • 5 hours ago
Mind your own business. You will live longer.

各人请自扫门前雪。你将更长寿。

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Bankotsu • 6 hours ago
"If Washington is tempted to maintain or expand its reach in East Asia to contain China’s rise.."
U.S. is already at it.

 ”如果华盛顿是在孤注一掷想要维持或者扩张自己的在东亚势力来遏制中国的崛起的话。。。“
美国毫无疑问就是在那样做。
 
RT Myths Debunked • 6 hours ago
Nobody is doing anything to the unelected regime in Beijing. The whole world, especially the US, have bent over backwards to walk it into the international system.
The autocrats in Beijing are the ones threatening East Asian countries, occupying islands and reefs through force since January, 1974, building new ones, and showing their disdain for regional democracies like Japan and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

没人会对这个在北京非民选的政权做什么。整个世界特别是美国都拼命去进入（中国主导的）国际体系。
这个北京的独裁政府恐吓东亚国家，从1974年一月开始靠武力不断占领岛屿和礁石，不停修建些新的（人工岛），对区域内的民主国家，例如日本和中华民国（台湾）极尽蔑视。
 
Serge Krieger  RT Myths Debunked • 5 hours ago
Mind your own business. You will live longer.

各人请自扫门前雪。你将更长寿。