[Quora]问题：如果中国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡同时进攻印度，要多久才能打败它？ [美国媒体]

[Quora]: If China, Pakistan and Sri Lanka attack India at the same time, how long will it take them to defeat India?

[Quora]问题：如果中国、巴基斯坦和斯里兰卡同时进攻印度，要多久才能打败它？



Balaji Viswanathan, Indian by Birth. Indian by Thought.
TL;DR - All the parties will lose. As someone who likes China and madly in love with India, I don't see a good outcome. Still I will play as I was asked.

Balaji Viswanathan，印度出生，印度思维（译注：这是这个问题下最高赞的回答，7.6K赞同）
对于所有人来说都没好果子吃。作为一个喜欢中国的同时又极度热爱印度的人，我看不到任何前途。但我仍将回答这个问题。

I like the top voted answer, but it is inaccurate in stating US will kick China's ass. In reality, US or any other major power will never mess with China in a direct war. It is not just China's nukes, but it is China's manufacturing keys that everyone will fear. Let us take a direct involvement out of question in this hypothetical battle.

我喜欢高赞的答案，但说美国会痛扁中国则是不准确的。实际上，美国或者任何大国都绝对不会和中国发生直接冲突，不仅仅是因为中国有核武器，还因为没人能够承受与世界工厂冲突的下场。所以让我们撇开其他因素，来单纯的考量这场战争。

The result will be a stalemate. It is purely hypothetical analysis to show interconnected everything is and nothing against any country. Here is why:

战争将会陷入僵持。这是出于纯粹的假设分析得出的结果，证明在一个互联互通的世界上没有东西能打败一个国家。原因如下：

First, let us take the low hanging fruit: Sri Lanka. Lankans received massive help from India to prevail over LTTE and end the civil war. The help included military (logistics, patrolling, arms), diplomatic (banning LTTE in Western nations) and political (prevailing over Tamilnadu's political parties). Indian central government is the only that can prevail over certain jigoist Tamil groups. Thus, if SL distracts Indian central government in any way, Tamil nationalist groups could send SL into a massive chaos and civil war. Thus, no way SL would mess with India.

首先，让我们来看看最容易解决的斯里兰卡。斯里兰卡在战胜猛虎组织和结束内战的过程中得到了印度的巨大帮助。这些帮助涉及军事（后勤、巡逻、武器）、外交（在西方国家禁止猛虎组织）及政治（主导泰米尔纳德邦政府）。印度中央政府是唯一一个可以胜过那些侵略组织的政府。因此，如果斯里兰卡试图削弱印度中央政府，那些泰米尔的种族主义团体可能会让斯里兰卡陷入内战和混乱。所以斯里兰卡不会去想着给印度添乱。

Oil Throttle: India has a very strategic position in the global oil flow. East Asia's oil pass through India. At the start of any major war, India could throttle China's oil supplies and merchandise exports. India could also use its ally Iran at the head of Hormuz and South East Asian allies around Malacca to further the blockade.
  
石油阀门：印度在世界石油流通中有非常重要的地位。东亚的石油需要经过印度。在战争爆发前，印度可以扼住中国的石油供应和商品出口。印度也可以通过它在霍尔木兹海峡的盟友-伊朗和东南亚马六甲海峡附近的盟友来进一步封锁。

Involvement of other powers: China's rise is not in any major power's interest. From US, UK, Germany to Russia, Japan and Korea are all scared of China's rise. For other Asian nations from Vietnam to Malaysia, a Chinese hegemony is a scary economic prospect. Although no one will directly involve, everyone will covertly provide aid to India.

其他力量的介入：中国的崛起不符合任何大国的利益。不论美国、英国、德国还是俄罗斯、日本、韩国，都恐惧于中国的崛起。对别的亚洲国家如越南和马来西亚来说，中国的霸权是一个可怕的未来。虽然没有人会直接参与战争，但每个人都会暗中援助印度。

Internal destabilization: Blablablabla

内部动荡：

Nuclear factor: While Pakistan has less to worry about India's nukes (nothing much to lose), China has everything to lose in a nuclear war with India. A cornered nation with nuclear power is the worst enemy you could have.
Thus, a Pakistan-China axis will never really work against India. The resulting mutual destruction is what preventing such an alliance from already happening.

核因素：虽然巴基斯坦不太担心印度的核武器（光脚的不怕穿鞋的），但中国会在与印度的核战争中失去一切。一个拥有核武器的国家是你能找到的最坏的对手。
因此，中-巴轴心永远不会对印度起作用。互相摧毁的后果会让这样的联盟在形成前就结束。

Chaitanya Belwal, Experienced with Technology and Defense matters
While this may me a hypothetical scenario, it figures quite prominently in the Indian military's war scenario. Past news suggest that the Indian military has always accounted for a 2-front war with China and Pakistan. Let’s keep Sri Lanka out of this since its military is not large enough to pose a serious threat (No offence to the Sri Lankans, but it took them 30 years to get rid of the LTTE, an objective that was almost achieved in 3 years by 4 divisions of the Indian army. Contrary to popular perceptions (as presented here) the reality of a Sino-Pak-Indo conflict are quite different.

Chaitanya Belwal, 在科技和国防方面经验丰富（译注：第二最高赞的回答，1.7K赞同）
虽然这只是一个虚拟情景，但它在印军的作战预想中非常重要。过去的消息表明，印度一直在研究与中巴进行双线战争的可能。让我们先忽略斯里兰卡，因为它的军事力量不足以构成严重的威胁（无意冒犯斯里兰卡人，但他们花了30年才搞定猛虎组织，印军只用4个师在三年内就解决了这个问题）。与流行的看法相反（比如现在讨论的这个），现实中的中-巴-印冲突是完全不同的。

First I differ with one poster who compares the Chinese Military (CM) as a world-class boxer, India as street cop and Pakistan as a brother to the street cop. If there is one 1000 lb Gorilla (or the boxer) in the room of world's militaries it is the US military. The rest, including China, are nothing but street cops with varying degree of weapons and strength. To reason why, one only has to see that each US Navy CVN (Nuclear carrier) is the 20th largest air force in the world, having some of the most sophisticated aircraft , and there are 11 of them. And we are not even talking about the USAF.

首先，我不同意那位答主说的“中国军队是一个世界级拳击手，印军只是个街头警察，巴基斯坦就是街警的小弟”。如果说这里有谁是一只1000磅的大猩猩（或者拳击手），那非美军莫属。剩下的军队，包括中国，都是街上的小警察，只不过大家的武器水平和力量水平不同。要说原因的话，只用看看美国的每一艘核动力航母都能算做是世界上第二十大的空军，有着最先进的战机，更不要说他们有11艘这样的航母了。我们甚至还没聊到美国空军。

Now let’s look at China, Pakistan and India. Between China and India there is this huge great wall, called the Himalayas, which makes PLA's 4000+ tanks pretty much useless. Infact in altitudes of 14,000+ feet which is where most of the war will be fought, its 100+ attack helicopters won’t be of much use either. The PLA will of course have a 1:3 advantage in artillery and with a nice logistics line running right up to the border they can get the big guns in numbers and fast. So the Himalayan war will be restricted to infantry and artillery where PLA has a 1:3 advantage. However, this advantage is dented because for being an overwhelming conventional force, a superiority of 1:6 is desired, more so in mountain warfare. Discounting support from the Air force (which we will dig into later) PLA will hard pressed for sustaining offensive operations in India. In 1962, when Indian military was the weakest, The PLA could not extend beyond Tawang in eastern India as it stretched their logistics line too thin. Even though PLA is better now, the Indian army has improved much more than 1962, and sustaining deep operations in the Indian theatre is not a tactical proposition for the PLA anymore.

现在我们来看看中国、巴基斯坦和印度。在中印之间有一条巨大的长城，叫做喜马拉雅山脉。它让PLA的4000多辆坦克几乎没用。事实上，在海拔14000英尺以上的地方作战，PLA的100多架攻击直升机也不会有多大用处。PLA在炮兵方面比起印军拥有3：1的数量优势，而且他们有一条不错的后勤补给线直通边境，这能让他们在短时间内获得大量的武器增援。但PLA在喜马拉雅战役中的优势也仅限在3：1的步兵和炮兵数量优势上了。然而这个优势也被削弱了，因为作为传统上的压倒性力量，6：1的优势才理想，山地战中更是如此。空军会支持（我们在后面深入讨论）PLA对印度的进攻。在1962年印军最弱的时候，PLA都无法跨越印度东部的塔旺，因为他们的后勤线拉得太细。尽管PLA现在的情况有所好转，但印军的进步远超62年。而且深入印度作战不符合PLA的战术目标。

In the plain desert of western India Pakistan's 1900+ tanks will be met by India's 3000+ tanks and its .5 million troop army by units of the Indian army backed by the para military BSF (with estimated 300K troops meant for the Pakistan border only). Assuming half of India's 1.2 million army is fighting China that still gives India a numerical advantage. On top of that the Indian army's Orbat is structured around 3 strike corps, (1,2 and 21 Corps) units of Independent army with heavy armor whose only goal is strike deep inside Pakistan. Infact the sole reason for existence of 1 Corps is to divide Pakistan in two, by deep push across the plains of Sindh. Rest of the so called Holding corps possess enough firepower to offensive operations. With a joint attack by Pakistan and China these powerful formations will be in defensive mode and it is highly unlikely that Pakistan will be able to undertake any offensive operations in Indian territory.

在印度西边的沙漠平原里，巴基斯坦的1900多辆坦克将由印度的3000多辆坦克和500万准军事部队BSF（估计有30万是专为印巴边境准备的）来对付。假设印度的120万军队有一半在与中国战斗，剩下的仍将对巴基斯坦形成数量优势。最重要的是，印度军队的战斗序列由3个打击部队组成（1、2和21军团），拥有重型装甲，其唯一目标就是深入巴基斯坦境内。事实上，1军团存在的目的就是将巴基斯坦撕裂为两部分，深入推进信德平原。其他的守卫部队也有足够的火力进攻。在巴基斯坦和中国的联合攻击下，这些强大的编队将处于防御模式，巴基斯坦不太可能能够在印度领土上展开任何进攻行动。

Regarding the Navy, though China may have a decent blue water capability it does not have the numbers or the experience to sustain operations in the backyard of the Indian Navy, the 2nd largest Navy in Asia. Indian Navy's 2 Carrier Battle Groups will pose a serious offensive threat to the surface fleet of both the Pakistan and Chinese navies. A naval blockade of India is unthinkable since this will bring the entire surface fleet of the PLAN and PN within strike range of shore based bombers and strike aircraft of the Indian Navy and air force. Unlike the US Navy or even the Royal Navy, PLAN lacks the air support firepower needed to protect its fleet from offensive ground based air operations.

说到海军，虽说中国有像样的蓝水海军，但它在亚洲第二大海军——印度海军的后院里并没有足够的数量或是经验来维持作战。印度海军的2个航母战斗群将对巴基斯坦海军和中国的海军的水面舰队构成严重的威胁。中巴不可能封锁印度海域，因为这将使它们的舰队暴露在岸基轰炸机和印度空军、海军的攻击范围内。与美国海军甚至皇家海军不同，中国海军缺乏保护舰队免受攻击的空中支援火力。

That brings us to the role of AF's where PLAAF has a distinct advantage at least on paper. With 3000+ combat aircraft supported by mid-air refuellers the PLAAF is a force to content with. However apart from 250+ SU30MKK’s, 200+ Su-27s and 200+ JF-17’s rest of these aircraft are vintage Chinese variants of MiG 19 and MiG 21s. In the context of Sino-Indian conflict China has primarily 6 airbases to launch strike aircraft from. However, all of these have altitudes in excess of 4000 ft, which means the strike aircraft taking off will be carrying lesser payload. A PLAAF Su-30MKK for example will take off with 6 AA missiles rather than 8. All IAF airbases bordering China primarily those in Bareilly, Tezpur, Hindon and Bagdodra all at near sea level allowing Indian Su30MKI to takeoff at full payload. IAF has reserved most of the 150+ modern Su30MKI ( a more lethal aircraft than Su30MKK due to superior Radar and electronics) for the Sino border, while 300+ modernized MiG 21 , MiG 27’s,MiG 29 and Jaguar’s can take care of the PAF. In addition the IAF has 50+ Mirage 2000 fighter aircraft which have superb ground combat and electronic capabilities and these may be used for the Sino border too. On top of this the IAF has a force multiplier than neither PAF or PLAAF have, i.e. AWACS. Apart from Israel, IAF is the only asian airforce with Phalcon AWACS mounted in IL-76 platforms. This gives IAF the capability to look 1500 kms deep inside Chinese and Pakistan territories while flying in safe Indian air space. IAF will be aware of every PLAAF and PAF as soon as it takes off, given sufficient time for action. This is a serious issue for both PAF and PLAAF, and taking down the Phalcon’s should figure top in their air battle strategy.

同时我们也要看到，中国空军至少在纸面上有明显的优势，中国空军有3000多架战斗机并由空中加油机支援。然而，除了250多架Su-30MKK、200多架Su-27、200多架JF-17之外，其余的飞机都是老式的中国版Mig-19和Mig-21。在中印冲突的背景下，中国会有6个空军基地起降战斗机。然而，这些基地的海拔都超过4000英尺，这意味着飞机只能携带较小的载荷起飞。例如中国空军的Su-30MKK只能携带6枚空空导弹，而不是8枚。与中国接壤的印度空军基地主要有Bareilly、Tezpur、Hindon和Bagdodra，这些基地都位于海平面附近，能让印度空军的Su-30MKI全负荷起飞。印度空军在中国边境部署了150多架现代化的Su-30MKI（一种比Su-30MKK更致命的飞机，具有更好的雷达和电子设备），而巴基斯坦空军则由300多架现代化的Mig-21、Mig-27、Mig-29和美洲虎攻击机对付。另外，印度空军有50多架幻影-2000战斗机，具极好的地面作战能力和电子能力，并可能在中印边境部署。除此之外，印度空军拥有中国空军和巴基斯坦空军所没有的力量倍增器，即AWACS（机载报警与控制系统）。除以色列外，印度空军是唯一拥有安装在伊尔-76平台上的“费尔康”机载预警系统的亚洲空军，这使得印度空军能呆在安全的印度空域，就获得中国和巴基斯坦境内1500千米的情报。如果有充足的准备时间，印度空军甚至能在中国空军和巴基斯坦空军的任何一架战机起飞时就发现它们。这对中国空军和巴基斯坦空军来说都是个严重的问题，摧毁“费尔康”系统会是它们的首要目标。

All three countries have ballistic missiles and each one can hit every corner of each other with nuclear weapons. So this will probably be the last resort. However, here too the Indian’s posses a potential lethal edge that not many are aware off. The Indian research arm for ballistic missiles has consistently demonstrated the accuracy of its anti-ballistic missile system, where in 3 trials it has demonstrated critical success. What is even more remarkable that inbound missiles were also hit in exo-atmosphere, a capability known only with the US. Of course what helps the Indian is the Green Pine radar that US and Israel shipped to India in a low key event. If the anti ballistic missile system does work, rendering Chinese and Pakistani ballistic missiles useless it gives India an edge that the attacking neighboring can’t match. Note PLA only has a demonstrated capability to blow satellites which was widely publicized. However, satellites have a known trajectory and it is relatively very simple to blow them up without using sophisticated radars.

中印巴三国都有弹道导弹，每个国家都可以用核武器攻击对方，所以这是最后的手段。然而在这个领域，印度也拥有不为人知的潜在致命优势。（译者：大哥你就这样泄露了印度的最高机密吗……）印度的弹道导弹研究组一直在验证他们的反导系统的准确性，3次实验都成功了。更重要的是，导弹在外层大气中也能被拦截，据说只有美国有这种能力。当然，帮我们做到这一点的是美国和以色列在某次事件中低调运往印度的绿松石雷达。如果反导系统能发挥作用，将使中巴的弹道导弹毫无用处，会让印度在面对嚣张的邻居时拥有无可比拟的优势。注：PLA只有公开的卫星打击能力，然而卫星具有已知轨迹，并且在不使用复杂雷达的情况下能相对轻松的把它们打下来。

To conclude India vs China-Pakistan war will end in stalemate at best, and won’t give any tactical or strategic advantage to any nation. So much so that it’s motivation itself will be in doubt.

总结：中印巴之战最终会陷入僵局，并且不会给任何一个国家带来战术或战略优势。所以发生战争的动机本来就不具可靠性。