关于4.27朝韩会谈的3个重要问题：美国《国家利益》 [美国媒体]

3 Big Questions for the Two North Korea Summits

美国《国家利益》：关于4.27朝韩会谈的3个重要问题



The diplomatic events of the decade are rapidly approaching. Later this week, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea will meet with Kim Jong-un at Panmunjom for the first inter-Korean summit since 2007. Shortly thereafter Kim will have a summit with President Donald Trump—the first such meeting between the sitting leaders of North Korea and the United States.

这个十年一遇的外交事件很快就要来临了。本周的晚些时候，韩国总统文在寅将与金正恩在板门店举行会谈，这是2007年之后朝韩首脑的首次会晤。在这之后，金正恩很快将与唐纳德·特朗普总统举行会面，这是朝鲜和美国在位领导人之间的首次会晤。

A steady stream of news and speculation has preceded the summits. Over the course of three days last week, Trump revealed that CIA director Mike Pompeo made a secret visit to North Korea around Easter to speak with Kim about the upcoming U.S. summit, South Korea announced that it is working to negotiate a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War, and Moon suggested that Kim would not demand the removal of U.S. troops from South Korea in return for denuclearization. For analysts and lay observers alike these developments raise some big questions that need to be answered in the two upcoming summits.

在此次会谈召开之前，各种新闻和推测源源不断。上周，特朗普透露中情局局长迈克·蓬佩奥在复活节（2018.04.01）前后秘密访问了朝鲜，与金正恩就即将举行的会谈进行沟通。韩国方面宣布正在致力于为正式结束朝鲜战争而谈判出一个和平条约。文在寅认为金正恩不会把让美国从韩国撤军作为朝鲜无核化的条件。对于分析人士来说，这些事件进程抛出了一些重要问题，需要在即将到来的两次会晤中得到解答。

What Is Kim Jong-un Prepared to Give Up?

金正恩准备要放弃什么？

The most important issue up for discussion at the two summits is the denuclearization of North Korea. Kim indicated a general willingness to discuss denuclearization in talks with South Korean officials after the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics, but he has not provided many details about what denuclearization means for the North in the context of the upcoming summits. Getting more details from Kim about what he is willing to give up should be Moon and Trump’s first priority.

朝韩会晤要讨论的一个最重要的问题就是朝鲜的无核化。在韩国平昌冬奥会之后，金正恩表达了与韩国官员讨论无核化问题的大致意愿，但是，他没有给出无核化在即将到来的会谈中对朝鲜意味着什么的太多相关细节。从金正恩那里得到更多关于他愿意放弃什么的信息，这应该是文在寅和特朗普的第一要务。

Nuclear weapons are Pyongyang’s ultimate insurance against regime change, and it is difficult to imagine Kim agreeing to dismantle his nuclear program without significant concessions and assurances from Washington and Seoul. Despite recent reports suggesting North Korea could accept a U.S. troop presence on the peninsula, effective reassurance will likely require some reduction in American military posture in South Korea.

核武器是朝鲜确保政权不被推翻的终极保障，在美国和韩国没有重大让步和保证的情况下，很难想象金正恩会同意废除他的核计划。尽管最近有报道表明朝鲜可以接受朝鲜半岛有美国驻军的存在，但是一个有效的保证可能需要美国减少在韩国的军事姿态。

A recent report in the South Korean press said that Pyongyang asked for a withdrawal of U.S. “nuclear and strategic assets” from the peninsula. Keeping nuclear weapons out of South Korea is an easy demand to satisfy since the United States withdrew the last of its forward-deployed nuclear weapons from South Korea in 1991. However, the withdrawal of “strategic assets” is a thornier issue because the North has not publicly provided any details about what capabilities fall under this category. The United States currently has two types of fighter aircraft capable of carrying the B61 nuclear gravity bomb (the F-16 and F-15E) and the F-35A is expected to be nuclear-capable as well. Would these aircraft be considered “strategic assets” even if there were no nuclear weapons in South Korea for them to carry?

最近一份韩国媒体的报告称，朝鲜要求美国撤出在朝鲜半岛的“核武器和战略资产”。将核武器撤出韩国是一个很容易满足的要求，因为在1991年美国就从韩国撤回了最后一批部署的核武器。然而，撤出“战略资产”是一个棘手的问题，因为朝鲜没有公开详谈什么样的资产会落入到这一范畴中。美国目前有两种战斗机能够携带B61核重力炸弹（F-16和F-15E），而F-35A战斗机也有望能携带核武器。即使韩国没有核武器要运载，这些飞机是否会被视为“战略资产”呢？

Will Trump’s Unorthodox Approach Pay Off?

特朗普的非常规做法会取得成功吗？

When the news of the Trump-Kim summit was first announced in early March many experts noted the oddity of a summit to begin a negotiating process. Traditionally, lower-level officials hammer out the particular of deals or agreements before leaders meet at a high-profile summit to resolve any lingering disagreements and announce a finished deal. Trump has turned this process on its head by agreeing to a summit with Kim at the start of a larger negotiation rather than at the end.

当特朗普要与金正恩会面的消息在3月初第一次公布的时候，许多专家指出一场目的是要开始谈判进程的会谈是很怪异的。正常情况下，低级官员先要敲定谈判的具体细节，之后领导人才进行高调会晤以解决任何悬而未决的分歧，并宣布达成最终协议。特朗普同意跟金正恩会晤改变了这一流程，这个会晤是一场更大范围谈判的开始，而不是结束。

On the one hand, Trump’s unorthodox approach to diplomacy is risky. If the summit fails a peaceful resolution to the Korean nuclear crisis will be practically impossible. Trump is essentially making a double-or-nothing bet by having such a high level summit at the outset of negotiations. The bet could pay off, but a failure would most likely take future lower-level talks off the table for the rest of Trump’s time in office. Victor Cha of Georgetown University summarized the cost of failure on Twitter, “If it fails? The only thing after a summit is a cliff.”

一方面，特朗普这个非常规的外交做法是有风险的。如果会谈失败，那么朝鲜核危机的和平解决几乎是不可能的了。在谈判开始时就举行这样一个高层会晤，特朗普基本上是在下一个不成功便成仁的赌注。他可能会赢，但是一次失败就可能让美国与朝鲜之间不再有可能进行低层会谈，直到特朗普下台。乔治城大学的Victor Cha在推特上总结了失败的代价：“如果失败了呢？那么会谈之后唯一剩下的就是悬崖了。”

On the other hand, the United States has tried the orthodox approach toward North Korea with little to show for it. While Trump’s approach has risks, it could also create opportunities that past attempts at diplomacy have missed.

另一方面，美国已经对朝鲜尝试过了正规做法，几乎已经没什么可以做的了。尽管特朗普的做法有风险，但它也可能创造出过去那些外交努力所错过的机会。

Will Washington Feel Bound by the Results of the Inter-Korean Summit?

美国会遵守朝韩会谈的结果吗？

A final important issue to consider is the impact of the inter-Korean summit on the subsequent Trump-Kim summit. Moon has pushed very hard for diplomacy with North Korea since the Winter Olympics, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given his political record. There is a very good chance that the inter-Korean summit will be a success and produce some sort of framework for improved relations between the two Koreas. Indeed, Trump gave his “blessing” to the two Koreas to work on a peace plan for resolving the Korean War.

最后一个需要考虑的重要问题是：在特朗普与金正恩会面之前举行的朝韩首脑会议有什么影响。自从韩国冬季奥运会以来，文在寅一直非常努力地与朝鲜进行外交接触，鉴于他的政治表现，这一点并不让人意外。朝韩首脑会晤很有可能将取得成功，并为改善朝韩关系提供某种框架。事实上，对于朝韩两国致力于达成一个解决战争的和平计划，特朗普表达了他的“祝福”。

However, a successful inter-Korean summit offers no guarantee that the Trump-Kim meeting will go well. Most U.S. presidents would probably feel pressure to hew closely to an ally’s position, but Trump has not shied away from policies that strain the U.S.-South Korea relationship. The need to cooperatively apply pressure against Pyongyang has not stopped Trump from pressing Moon on free-trade negotiations and alliance burden-sharing issues. 

然而，朝韩会谈的成功并不能保证特朗普与金正恩的会谈也顺利进行。要密切关注盟友的立场可能会让大多数美国总统感到有压力，但是特朗普并没有回避那些会影响到美国和韩国关系的政策。美国有和韩国共同向朝鲜施加压力的需要，但是这并没有阻止特朗普敦促文在寅进行自由贸易谈判并分担联盟的负担。

The upcoming inter-Korea and Trump-Kim summits will provide answers to these three questions. Hopefully both summits will be successful and the parties can begin the long and difficult work of resolving this crisis and achieving lasting peace in Northeast Asia, but success is not a foregone conclusion.

即将到来的韩朝会谈，以及特朗普和金正恩的会谈将给出这三个问题的答案。希望这两次会谈都能成功，各方可以开始漫长而艰难的工作，以解决这场危机并实现东北亚的持久和平，但成功并不是一个定局。