美国：中国长远眼光的衰败 [美国媒体]

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：今天狗过桥------------



China is often credited with taking the long view to achieve its strategic goals; however, that luxury may be coming to an end. There is an oft-quoted story about former Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai, who, when asked about the effects of the French Revolution on China, demonstrated the Chinese long view by answering, “It is too soon to tell.” U.S. strategists, on the other hand are often limited in their ability to plan beyond the current administration. They have watched China slowly grow in power, both militarily and economically, over the last few decades with an arguable long-term goal of displacing the United States as the dominant global power, all the while focusing their own efforts on wars in the Middle East. China has remained in the shadows of global security, rarely venturing out to address even regional challenges, hoping their gradual, long-term, hegemonicrise would become a fait accompli. That hope may now be at risk.

中国经常被认为是带着长远眼光来实现她的战略目标的；然而，这种状况可能要结束了。有一则关于中国总理周恩来的故事经常被引用：周恩来总理当时被问到，关于法国革命对于中国民主化进程的影响，当时周恩来总理是这样回答的：“现在来说还太早了。”另一方面来说，美国的战略家们在现今的管理体系下作出计划的能力时常受到限制。他们眼睁睁地看着中国在过去几十年来在经济与军事领域里不断地增强，而且他们还带着一个抱有争议的长期目标：成为全球霸权力量，取代美国——这个到现在还把全部注意力放在中东战争的国家。中国躲在全球安保的羽翼下，即使是区域性的问题也几乎从不出手去解决，而是希冀着他们的长期目标——霸权崛起能够成为现实。这个希望如今出问题了。

 -------------译者：z8975623-审核者：今天狗过桥------------

Demographics
A booming population with scarce agricultural resources led Chinese leaders to adopt a One-Child Policy in 1979. While this policy mitigated exponential population growth and prevented a Malthusian catastrophe, the effect is an aging demographic that will weigh heavily on Chinese power/control in the coming decades. In short, a relatively small under-30 crowd will have to support a much larger over-70 crowd. The ramifications are already being felt. In 2012, China’s workforce decreased by 3.5 million and is forecast to continue its decline. Some estimates indicate that by 2020 Shanghai, a city with almost 15 million people, will have a population in which fully one-third will be over age 60. Additionally, the Wall Street Journal estimates that by mid-century the population of China will consist of 186 single men for every 100 single women, a recipe for increased crime and dissension, (as well as a continued declining birth-rate). China’s ability to maintain a self-sustaining workforce is waning rapidly.

人口统计
1979年，面临中国过多的人口数量，紧张的农业资源的局面，当时的领导们采取了计划生育政策。当时这个政策减缓了中国人口的指数型增长并且避免了马尔萨斯灾难，而结果是人口老龄化将会在接下来的几十年里成为一个突出的问题。总之，相对地，低于30%的人口将不得不抚养远超70%的人口数量。而这个问题现在已经成为现实了。2012年，中国的劳动力数量减少了350万而且预计将会继续减少。有一些估计指出，在2020年，拥有将近1500万人口的上海，其中的1/3人口年龄将超过60岁。此外，华尔街日报估计，在本世纪中叶，中国的人口组成比例将会是：186个单身汉对100个单身女性，这会滋养犯罪和冲突，（同时也会继续导致人口出生比率的降低）。中国维持自身劳动力数量的能力正在不断衰弱。

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：今天狗过桥------------

A Slowing Economy
China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over. China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond. Why does this matter? If China wants to become a global power, it will need the funds to do so. That money must be used for external investment, military procurement and continued infrastructure development. Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.

经济放慢
中国经济经历了飞跃式的增长，保持GDP增长速度超过10%许多年。而这些辉煌时光已经过去了，中国最近的季度GDP增长速度低于7%，而且预计将会在接下来的几十年里继续下滑。为什么这个那么重要呢？因为如果中国想要成为全球力量，那么她将需要资金来实现这个目标。这些资金必须要用来对外投资，军械采购以及持续的基建发展。保持中国军事力量和经济力量的增长将会变得更困难，而且将会在不久以后开始演变成一个缓慢、有可能将会是不可逆的衰弱。


-------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：渺然有思------------

Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk • 10 hours ago
Keeping in mind that the author of the above article is a former surface warfare officer, it comes with no surprise that he is more concerned about the threatening loss of US hegemony in East and South East Asia than the prent social and economic challenges in China in the phase of transition and the supposed decline of the country.

不要忘了，上面这篇文章的作者是前水面作战官。毫无意外，他更关注的是美国逐渐丧失在东亚、东南亚的霸权地位，而不是中国现今处于转型阶段面对的社会、经济挑战，以及众说纷纭的衰落.

-------------译者：qinxiangyuan-审核者：渺然有思------------

leroy  Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk • 10 hours ago
Respectfully Professor Dr. perhaps China should be more concerned with losing U.S. naval presence in the East and South China Seas. U.S. security presence has allowed what was an area of non-stop war to take a breather from killing each other and focus on their nation's economic development.
U.S. presence has allowed all of Asia to prosper like never before. Especially in South Korea. But if China continues to threaten, they must remember Newton's Law of Motion - For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. That's what you are now seeing happen in Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, etc. They are re-arming, and Japan is re-militarizing. For China, the U.S. is the goose that laid the golden egg! My advice? Don't try to put it on the dinner table.

也许中国才应该对美国海军在东海和南海存在的消失感到紧张。美军在该地区的存在可以这个纷争不断的地区中的国家从彼此之间的厮杀中喘一口气，从而将它们各自的主要精力放在国家的经济发展上。
美国的存在让整个亚洲取得了前所未有的繁荣，特别是在南韩这一点得到了充分的验证。但是如果中国仍旧继续威胁邻国，请记住牛顿的作用力与反作用力定律，你的每一个动作都会有一个相反的回应，现在在日本、越南、菲律宾等国家发生的就是针对中国威胁的回应。这些小国都在升级自己的武装，而日本则正重新走向军国主义。对于中国来说，美国就是一只会下金蛋的鹅，我建议中国千万别把这只鹅端上餐桌。

-------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：normalone------------

Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk  leroy • 8 hours ago
East Asia, not to confuse it with the Middle East (= the total mess the US has created), has been peaceful since the end of Vietnam war, in which the US was directly involved as generally known. The whole region and every single ASEAN-country (South Korea and Japan as well) has benefited from the economic rise of China - not from the US presence there. Rather the continuing US military presence in the region considered by a rising China as an increasing security challenge and thus understandably provokes their reactions, causes tensions in the SCS/ECS leading to a destabilisation of the whole region.

别将东亚跟中东混淆（中东已经被美国弄得一团糟）。东亚自越南战争后，已经是非常和平。众所周知，美国直接参与了这场战争。整个地区包括所有东盟国家（也包括韩国和日本）都因中国经济崛起而获益，而不是因为美国(在这片地区的）存在。反观美国，他在这片区域的持续军事存在被正在崛起的中国视作不断增长的安全危机，所以中国做出相应的应对措施也就不足为奇了。最终，中国南海和东海的紧张局势导致了整个地区的动荡。

-------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：normalone------------

老三  Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk • 4 hours ago
You were right to say that the whole region has been benefited from the economic rise of China. But you forgot to tell us why China could rise up. Hence first please tell us did China get any help from other countries before her rise. Secondly, does China benefit more than her trading partners? Reality shows she does because China is richer than all her trading partners; she is importing industrial materials and technology in larger quantities than her trading partners are; she has larger cash reserves than any other country trading with her, etc. etc.

中国的经济崛起，整个地区从中获益，你这么说是对的。但你忘了告诉我们为什么中国能崛起。因此，首先请告诉我们，中国崛起前从其他国家那得到过什么帮助吗？其次，中国是否比她的所有贸易伙伴都获益更多?现实表明，这两个问题的答案是肯定的，因为中国比她所有的贸易伙伴都富裕; 她比她所有的贸易伙伴进口更多的工业原材料及技术；她比她的贸易伙伴具备更多的现金储备，等等。

-------------译者：渺然有思-审核者：GarryWEI------------

leroy  Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk • 8 hours ago
If not for U.S. presence there would be no peace in Asia. We paved the way for Chinese prosperity. If there is tension in the East and South China Seas, it is mainly the fault of China and their 9-dash line. This does not serve Asian or the international order.

 没有美国亚洲就没有和平，是我们成就了中国的繁荣。很大程度上是中国和它的9段线的错误造成了其东南沿海的紧张局势。这对亚洲或国际秩序并无益处。

Eagle  Prof. Dr. h. c. Ali G. Türk • 8 hours ago
Now the region will suffer from china's rise.

 崛起的中国乃地区之瘤
 
Eagle  leroy • 5 hours ago
He's not a prof or dr. He's a chinese propagandist.

 他（Prof. Dr）不是教授或博士，他就是一个五毛
 
Frank Blangeard • 11 hours ago
The article could be titled 'Pipe Dreams of an Envious Neocon'.

本文的标题也可以改为“嫉妒的新保守主义者的白日梦”

-------------译者：宁不凡-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

cherrysan • 12 hours ago
The whole article looks sensible and honest until the author spill the beans. He is worried about Chinese leadership aggression outside her borders and remind Western forces to be vigilant. He weave a nice story but finally expose his real motive to contain China.
Listen Mr Hein, remember how OBOR comes about? China is very vulnerable to have her commercial lifeline constricted by US and her allies simply due to bad geography. US never have to put up with this nonsense. From SCS to Malacca Strait to Indian Ocean, Chinese trades along these routes are all vulnerable to US and allies interference.
It is tempting like Mr Hein conclude, a domestic problem in China could drive the leadership there to expand outward to take the attention away from her internal issue. There is some truth to that. However China would not be so naive to do this simply because there are too many routes at risk from US interference.
Most important, Mr Hein apparently don't understand Chinese culture. Honor, face is very important and China will not do anything that is Clearly Seen as extra territorial. Forget the nonsense about SCS and ECS disputes with her neighbors as these are not clear cut aggression. In fact the 'first movers', squatters like PH, VN should be seen as the origin of tensions there.
A shining example of Chinese restrain and respecting other country's sovereignty can be seen by her unwillingness to use her forces, drones to try to capture a drug kingpin who killed dozens of Chinese sailors over two years ago in Myanmar. Contrast this with the Indian cross border 'hot pursuit' of freedom fighters in Myanmar, it is clear China operates with Honor, not the pariah Indian behavior. So relax Mr Hein, China is benign, she will never do uncouth things like the Indians did.

在作者卸下伪装之前，读整篇文章会让人误以为作者睿智且坦诚。作者担忧中国的领导力扩张越过西方的划定的界限并且提醒西方对此要保持警惕。他编了一个很好的故事，但最终却揭示了他真正的动机。
Hein先生，你知道一带一路怎么来的吧？仅从地缘角度讲，美国及其盟友的阻碍就使中国的商业命脉及其脆弱。美国永远不要为此胡说八道。从南海到马六甲海峡再到印度洋，中国在这处航线上的贸易活动很容易受到美国及其盟国的干扰。
如Hein先生所说，中国国内的问题可能促使领导者向外扩展，从而（让人民）把关注焦点从内部事务上移开。这或许算是其中的一些真相。但中国不会如此幼稚的行事，因为有太多的来自美国干涉的风险存在。
最重要的是，Hein先生显然并不了解中国文化。面子对中国来说是相当重要的，中国不会
对那些显而易见的领土外的土地做任何事。忘了那些中国与其邻居关于南中国海和西菲律宾海的争论吧，因为这些都算不上是明确的侵略。事实上，“始作俑者”菲律宾和越南这些擅自占用的土地的国家才应该被视为局势紧张的根源所在。
可以看出，由于中国光辉榜样的自我约束和对其他国家主权尊重，使中国其不愿意动用武力。两年前，中国曾打算派出无人机在缅甸抓捕一个杀害几十中国船员的毒枭，但中国并没有这样做。这与印度跨境“紧急追捕”缅甸自由战士形成了鲜明对比，显然中国在经营自己的声誉，而非如贱民印度所做行为。所以请Hein先生放轻松些，中国是仁慈而温和的，不会像印度人那样行事粗野。

 -------------译者：宁不凡-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

leroy  cherrysan • 11 hours ago
Another thing China is good at is deception. Please tell me about the 9-dash line? You talk a peaceful game, but act in a very provocative manner. Building those islands was like Hitler publishing Mein Kampf. You have signalled your intentions, and the U.S. and China's neighbors are getting ready.
Asia's history is unending wars fought against each other. The U.S. is simply there to keep the peace - and you should be darned grateful that we are. If not for the U.S., China would either be half Japanese or a country of rice-pickers knee deep in paddy water. Maybe both!

中国还擅长欺骗。请告诉我关于九段线的事？你嘴上说的是一场和平的游戏，但是却以一种非常挑衅的方式进行着。建造这些岛屿就如同希特勒出版自传。你已经表明了你的意图，而美国和中国的这些邻居也正在准备就绪。
亚洲的历史就是无休止相互对抗的战争。美国在此从根本上保持了亚洲的和平，你应该对我们心存感激。如果没有美国，中国将是日本的一部分，或者只是一个在及膝深的水稻田中劳作的农耕国家，也许两者都是！

 -------------译者：渺然有思-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

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cherrysan  leroy • 7 hours ago
Leroy is a victim of Western propaganda. The reason is he can't read Chinese and got brainwashed from birth. In general 95% populace in a country are Brainwashed by the Elite 5%. You name it, US, India, Vietnam, Philippines, even Japan, China, yes, China!, Malaysia, etc they are ALL duped by the establishment who control the media and lobbying to twist laws for the elite nationalist views. You keep on saluting 'that flag' you are a good candidate for manipulation by your government.
China cannot communicate effectively in the Western media unlike India, Philippines, a US, UK English influenced culture, so it is easier for them to deceive the general public about China. I merely level the playing field in the Western press.
If China is seen as good in deception, it is because she is smarter than your breed. Sorry, nothing personal.

  你（Leroy）就是一个西方宣传系统的受害者，因为他看不懂中文，而且一出生就开始被洗脑。每个国家5%的精英阶层会洗脑95%的屁民阶层，凡你能想到的如美国、印度、越南、甚至日本、中国，没错是中国，马来西亚等等国家的屁民，都被为掌控着媒体和法律游说团体的精英机构的民族主义观点所蒙蔽。你就是一个被政府操控的木偶，还傻傻地欢呼着
不像受英美文化影响的印菲，中国无法有效的在西方媒体上表达自己的想法，所以西方很容易就可以对自己的人民散布有关中国的谎言。
如果中国被视作善于欺骗，是因为他们比你的种类更聪明。抱歉，并非针对你。