除了核武器，朝鲜还有众多方式可使其军事实力更有威慑力 [美国媒体]

Forget Nuclear Weapons: NorthKorea Has Lots of Ways to Make Its Military More Deadly

除了核武器，朝鲜还有众多方式可使其军事实力更有威慑力

来源网站：国家利益
原文时间：2018-04-29 07:34:50



On April 20, North Korea held the Third PlenaryMeeting of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).The North Korean state media declared the “great victory” for the “WPK's line of simultaneouslypushing forward the economic construction and the building of a nuclear force.” After flattering the achievements of the policy, North Koreastated that it will suspend nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile(ICBM) tests, while also affirming to no first use, and no transfer of nuclearweapons technologies.

4月20日，朝鲜举行了朝鲜劳动党（WPK）第七届中央委员会第三次全体会议。朝鲜官方媒体宣布“朝鲜劳动党同时推进经济建设和核力量建设的路线方针”获得“重大胜利”。奉行这项政策取得成就之后，朝鲜表示将暂停核试验和洲际弹道导弹（ICBM）测试，同时也表明只要不受到核威胁或核挑衅，朝鲜将绝不使用核武器，在任何情况下都不会转移核武器和核技术。

While North Korea's so-called moratorium could beinterpreted as its gesture to not revive tensions, it falls far short of thecomplete, verifiable, and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of its weapons ofmass destruction (WMD) program. Rather, the announcement was an affirmation ofwhat North Korea has stated in the last several months in its dialogues withSouth Korea, but more importantly, was essentially North Korea's unilateraldeclaration as a “responsible nuclear weapons state” and its preemptive answer to the demands for denuclearization.Any demands outside of North Korea's recent announcement will either bereciprocated with a flat refusal, or at best, tough negotiations wherePyongyang will make some high-end counterdemands.

虽然，朝鲜所谓的暂停可以被解释为朝鲜不想重演紧张局势的姿态，但还远没有达到其大规模杀伤性武器（WMD）计划的完整性、可检验性和不可逆转的拆卸（CVID）。更确切地说，这一声明是对朝鲜在过去几个月中与韩国对话所作的肯定，但更重要的是，它本质上是朝鲜作为“负责任的核武器国家”的单方面声明，并对无核化需求先发制人的回答。朝鲜近期宣布的任何要求都将要么是断然拒绝，或至多是对于平壤将做出一些高阶的反要求的艰难谈判。

From the military capability viewpoint, the moratoriumreflects North Korea's belief that further tests are no longer needed (at leastfor the time being) to prove the capabilities of nuclear weapons and ICBMdeveloped to date. Indeed, there is credence to this claim. While technologicalissues concerning accuracy and survivability of warheads still remain, NorthKorea has demonstrated its ability to fire a missile that can technically reachmainland United States, as well as developing nuclear weapons withsignificantly large yield.

从军事能力的观点来看，暂停反映了朝鲜的信念，即不再需要进一步的测试（至少暂时如此）来证明核武器和洲际弹道导弹发展至今的能力。事实上，这种说法是可信的，虽然有关弹头的准确性和存活性的技术问题仍然存在，但朝鲜已经证明了它具有在技术上能够发射一枚导弹达到美国大陆的能力，同时也能以显着的大产量发展核武器。

Pyongyang's recent announcement also pledged to focusmore on “powerful socialist economy andmarkedly improving the standard of people's living” and “science and education” to make up for the other half of the byungjin policy. Yet suchstatements were heard in the past, particularly in 1970 when Kim Il-sung admittedthat the excessive military spending in the 1960s had constrained thedevelopment of the civilian economy and pledged to focus more on improving thestandard of living. Of course, this was nothing but political rhetoric. NorthKorea continued to devote significant resources to the military while theeconomy tumbled into failure. Thus, while Kim Jong-un has pushed forward withinfrastructural developments- and has even embraced some market activities- themilitary will continue to have central presence in the state economy.

平壤最近的公告还承诺将更多地关注“强大的社会主义经济和显着提高人民生活水平”和“科教”，以弥补并进政策的另一半。然而，这样的声明过去也曾听到，尤其是在1970年，金日成承认，20世纪60年代过度的军费开支限制了民用经济的发展，并承诺更多地关注提高生活水平。当然，这不过是政治修辞，朝鲜继续向军队投入大量资源，而经济陷入失败。因此，虽然金正恩已在推动基础设施的发展，甚至还接受了一些市场活动，军队将继续在国家经济中处于中心地位。

But the greater uncertainties rest in what was notmentioned in the recent announcement. In particular, the moratorium is ablessing for North Korea because it allows Pyongyang to spend more on theKorean People's Army (KPA). In this context, at least four areas warrantattention.

但更大的不确定性仍然存在于最近宣布的内容中没提及的地方。特别是，暂停是对朝鲜的祝福，因为它允许平壤在朝鲜人民军（KPA）上花费更多。在此背景下，至少有四个领域值得关注。

First, the moratorium on tests would allow North Koreato focus more on building the stockpile of proven WMD technologies. Pyongyangannounced the closure of the Punggye-ri nuclear testing facility but made nomentions to the production of fissile material, nor ICBM. Hence North Korea mayhonor its moratorium on tests for the time being, while its WMD stockpilegrows.

首先，暂停测试将使朝鲜更加关注建立已证实的大规模杀伤性武器技术的储备。平壤宣布关闭丰溪里核试验设施，但没有提及生产裂变材料，也没有提及洲际弹道导弹。因此，朝鲜可能会尊重暂时停止测试，而其大规模杀伤性武器储备仍将增长。

Second, Pyongyang's announcement made no references toanti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles(SLBM) or short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM). Moreover, the recent statementmade no mention of engine, missile ejection (for SLBM) or reentry vehiclenosecone tests. Givenn that North Korea is still in the early stages of thelearning curve with its ASBM and SLBM, the moratorium would allow Pyongyangfocus on developing its ASBM, SLBM, and SRBM capabilities-that pose a greatthreat to South Korean, Japanese and U.S. forces in the area.

第二，平壤的声明没有提及反舰弹道导弹（ASBM）、潜射弹道导弹（SLBM）或短程弹道导弹（SRBM）。此外，最近的声明没有提及发动机、导弹弹射（用于SLBM中）或再入飞行器测试。鉴于朝鲜仍处于反舰弹道导弹和潜射弹道导弹的学习曲线早期阶段，暂停将允许平壤专注于开发反舰弹道导弹、潜射弹道导弹和短程弹道导弹的能力——这对韩国、日本和美国在这一地区的军队构成了极大的威胁。

Third, strengthening the conventional capabilitieswould be high on the KPA's agenda to better integrate the WMD capabilities intothe its overall readiness while enhancing anti-access and area-denialcapabilities. Indeed, North Korea's air and naval capabilities are dated andweak, but the construction of surface-effect ships, corvettes, electronicwarfare systems antiship and antiaircraft missiles have yielded results inrecent years. Despite the resource and technological constraints in acquiringhigh-end systems, North Korea has always pursued to enhance the KPA'shybrid-warfare capabilities through the utility of various existing andindigenously upgraded platforms. Thus, one can expect Kim Jong-un pay greaterattention to the conventional capabilities in the coming years to “complete” KPA's force structuralreadiness.

第三，加强常规力量将成为朝鲜人民军的议程，以更好地将大规模杀伤性武器能力纳入其总体准备状态，同时增强反介入和区域封锁能力。事实上，朝鲜的空军力量和海军力量是过时且薄弱的，但水面舰艇、护卫舰、电子战系统反舰导弹和防空导弹的建造近年来取得了成果。尽管在获取高端系统的资源和技术方面存在约束，但朝鲜通过各种现有的和本土化升级平台的使用，一直追求提高朝鲜人民军的混合战争能力。因此，可以期待未来几年里金正恩更加关注传统力量，以“完成”朝鲜人民军的力量结构准备。

Fourth, North Korea will also try to address theproblems in the KPA's operational readiness. Despite the hardware developments,the KPA in recent decades has suffered critical problems in logistics andsupplies, maintenance, training, as well as welfare of personnel. Such problemsnot only corrode the KPA's readiness for large-scale operations, but alsothreaten the integrity of the military—that would be critical for theleadership's survival. Although full remedies are few and far between,Pyongyang will nevertheless attempt to do what it can to attain maximum levelof operational readiness and integrity of the KPA.

第四，朝鲜也将努力解决朝鲜人民军的战备准备问题。尽管硬件发展，但是近几十年来朝鲜人民军在物流和供应、维护、培训以及人员福利方面都遭遇了严重的问题。这样的问题不仅腐蚀了朝鲜人民军对大规模作战的准备，而且威胁到军队的完整性，这对领导层的生存至关重要。尽管补救措施很少，但平壤仍将关于达到最大程度的行动准备和朝鲜人民军的完整性方面尽其所能。

For North Korea, the military is the only sector thatcan function as an effective leverage against the United States and its allieswhile keeping the regime intact. Since the 1960s, North Korea has built themilitary under the auspices of the “line of self-reliant defense” that aims to establish a cadre-based military, modernize theentire KPA, establish a cadre-based military and nationwide fortification. Thedoctrine aims to strengthen the readiness of the KPA while enhancing theleadership's control over the military. Even for WMD, North Korea has beenworking on the development of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons since the1960s, and even built a command within the KPA known as the Strategic Force.Given that North Korea has only started to genuinely reap the benefits of itsmilitary capabilities, it would no sense for Pyongyang to unwind the developmentsto date.

对于朝鲜来说，军队是唯一能够有效对抗美国及其盟友同时保持政权完整的部门。20世纪60年代以来，朝鲜在“自力更生防御路线”的支持下建立了军队，旨在建立一支以干部为基础的军队，使整个朝鲜人民军现代化，建立一个以干部为基础的军事和全国性的防御工事。这一原则旨在加强朝鲜人民军的准备，同时加强领导对军队的控制。即使是大规模杀伤性武器，自20世纪60年代以来，朝鲜一直致力于发展弹道导弹和核武器，甚至在被称为战略力量的朝鲜人民军内建立了一个司令部。考虑到朝鲜才开始真正获得其军事能力的好处，平壤没有必要放松目前的发展。

Indeed, North Korea has expressed its willingness todiscuss denuclearization, on the condition their security is guaranteed. Butfor North Korea, this means the whole shebang—peace treaty, decoupling of theU.S.—South Korean (and even the U.S.-Japanese) alliance,withdrawal of American forces from Korea and Japan, and U.S. disarmament.Naturally, such an arrangement is only advantageous to North Korea, whileexposing South Korea and Japan to greater uncertainties.

事实上，朝鲜已经表示愿意在保证安全的前提下讨论无核化问题。但对朝鲜来说，这意味着整个事情——和平条约，美国撤离——韩国（甚至美日）联盟，美军撤出韩国和日本，以及美国裁军。当然，这样的安排只对朝鲜有利，同时暴露出对韩国和日本更大的不确定性。

Without doubt, the recent announcement by the NorthKorean leadership is a step forward. But North Korea's guns are still facing inthe same direction. As long as the regime stays in power, they will pursue waysto enhance their military readiness to achieve their strategic ends. Againstthis backdrop, it is essential for the United States, South Korea and Japan tosharpen their deterrence measures to demonstrate to North Korea that anybellicose action will be met with the harshest consequences. At the same time,it is critical to note that while the “military option” has its place, preemptive or preventative strikes on NorthKorea must not be viewed as an easy or the most plausible option. This is notonly because South Korea and Japan will bear the brunt of North Korea'sretaliatory measures, but also because of the challenges in effectivelyincapacitating Pyongyang.

毫无疑问，朝鲜领导层的最近宣布向前迈进了一步，但朝鲜的枪支仍朝着同样的方向。只要政权继续掌权，他们就会寻求提高军事准备以实现其战略目标的途径。在此背景下，美国、韩国和日本必须加强其威慑措施，以向朝鲜表明任何好战行动都会遭遇最严重的后果。同时，值得注意的是，虽然“军事选择”有其地位，但对朝鲜的先发制人或预防性打击不应被视为一个简单或似是而非的选择。这不仅是因为韩国和日本将承受朝鲜的报复措施并首当其冲，而且还因为它是有效削弱平壤的挑战。

We therefore face more questions than answers,particularly when one considers North Korea's style of diplomacy. Goingforward, it is essential to formulate and execute viable, well-coordinatedmultilateral strategies between the United States, South Korea and Japan. Theinter-Korean and U.S.-North Korean summits will serve as the critical firststeps, but we must be prepared for the long-haul to ensure sustainable peaceand stability on the Korean Peninsula.

因此，我们面临的问题多于答案，尤其是考虑到朝鲜的外交风格时。今后，必须制定和执行美国、韩国和日本之间可行、协调良好的多边战略。朝韩和美朝峰会将是至关重要的第一步，但我们必须做好长期准备，以确保朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定。

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi is a visiting professor in thedepartment of global studies at the College of Economics and InternationalTrade, Pusan National University, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum.

Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi是釜山国立大学经济与国际贸易学院全球研究系的客座教授，也是太平洋论坛的兼职研究员。