【国家利益】俄罗斯与印度联合研制隐形战机的计划走到尽头，究竟发生了什么？ [美国媒体]

RIP: Russia and India Had BigPlans to Build a Deadly Stealth Fighter. What Happened?

【国家利益】俄罗斯与印度联合研制隐形战机的计划走到尽头，究竟发生了什么？


                
In April 2018, India's DefenseSecretary Sanjay Mitra met with a Russian delegation to announce that India waswithdrawing from its joint development of the FGFA stealth fighter. Thisrupture was years in the making, and does not constitute a surprise—but finally clears the air forthe Indian military to explore a different path to acquiring stealth aircraft.

2018年4月，印度防长西塔拉曼会见俄罗斯代表团，宣布印度将退出与俄罗斯联合开发第五代隐形战斗机（FGFA）计划。这次联合研制计划宣告破裂是几年以来逐渐积累的结果，实际上并不意外，不过，这也为印度军方开辟了探索隐形战机的另一条道路。

Back in 2007, India's HindustanAeronautics Limited (HAL) entered into a partnership agreement with Russianaviation manufacturer Sukhoi to jointly invest in the fifth-generation fighterthen known as the PAK-FA T-50. However, the Indian Air Force wanted a moresophisticated two-seat variant of the PAK-FA called the FGFA, with improvedstealth characteristics, a more powerful 360-degree AESA radar and supercruise-capableengines. (Supercruise is the ability to sustainably fly over the speed of soundwithout using fuel-gulping afterburners.) New Delhi promised $6 billion forR&D?$295 million of which was directly transferred in 2010?and was originallysupposed spend an additional $30 billion for over 144 production stealthfighters.

早在2007，印度斯坦航空公司（HAL）与俄罗斯航空制造商苏霍伊签订了合作协议，共同投资研发第五代战斗机，这款战斗机被命名为PAK-FA （T-50，现在叫苏-57）。但印度空军对这一计划并不满意，他们希望拥有一款更先进复杂的五代机，即双座PAK-FA改进型，又称为FGFA战机，具有先进的隐身特性，更强大的360度有源相控阵雷达（AESA）和拥有超巡能力的发动机（超音速巡航能力是在不使用加力燃烧的状态下战机维持长时间超音速飞行的能力）。新德里承诺投入60亿美元用于研发新一代战斗机，其中2.95亿美元已于2010年先期投入。按照原来的计划，接下来将投入300多亿美元生产超过144架隐形战斗机。

But Sukhoi struggled to meetproduction milestones even for the basic version of the PAK FA, which stilllacks the higher-thrust Saturn AL41F1 “Izdeliye30” turbofan engines necessaryto achieve desired performance parameters. Just one of the new model engineswas tested in December 2017, and they aren't expected to enter full productionuntil the mid-2020s. Repeated delays and cost overruns combined with aneconomic recession and contracting defense budget caused Russia's Su-57 orderto be cut down from 150 to just twelve production aircraft, while procurementof fourth-generation Su-35S fighters was increased in its place.

但时至今日，苏霍伊才勉强完成PAK FA基础版本的定型和量产，目前使用土星AL41F1发动机，仍然缺乏更高推力的“产品30”涡扇发动机以达到预期的性能参数。目前仅有一款新型引擎在2017年12月进行了测试，预计到2025年左右才能完全投入生产。由于研发过程一再拖延和成本超支，再加上经济衰退和国防预算收缩，俄罗斯的苏-57战斗机订单从原先的150架减少到了12架（译注：12架是首批订单），而第四代战斗机SU-35S的采购量却增加了。

By 2014 it became clear that theIndian military had grown disenchanted with the project, leaking to the publicthat expected cooperation and technology transfers had not occurred, and thatHAL technicians had been denied access to Russian R&D facilities and thesource code to the flight computer, which would have allowed India to installsoftware upgrades without Russian involvement.

2014年，印度军方已经明显对该项目感到失望，公开透露预期中的技术合作和技术转让并没有发生，并且印度斯坦航空公司的技术人员被拒绝参观俄罗斯的研发设施和与飞机相关的计算机源代码，这关系到印度能否在没有俄罗斯参与的情况下自主安装软件进行升级。

Furthermore, the Indian Air Forcewas not satisfied with the Su-57's performance, and doubted it could beimproved at an affordable cost. Notably, the PAK-FA has at best a frontal radarcross-section (RCS) of .1 square meters, a hundred times larger than the U.S. F-35stealth fighter's minimum of .001 meters. In fact, multiple Russian and Indiansources claim RCS figures of .3 or .5 square meters for the Su-57.

此外，印度空军对苏-57的表现并不满意，印度质疑该飞机的升级改造成本能否控制在自己的承受范围内。此外，值得一提的是，PAK-FA正向雷达截面（RCS）最小为0.1平方米，比美国F-35隐形战斗机的0.001米大了一百倍。事实上，不少俄罗斯和印度的消息人士透露苏-57的正向雷达截面数值为0.3-0.5平方米。

Additionally, the PAK FA issignificantly more visible to radars from the side or rear aspect. The Russianmilitary appears more accepting of a defensive fighter that is stealthiest whensoaring head on towards interlopers at the edge of their radar coverage. India,however, would prefer an all-aspect stealth aircraft that can also penetratedefended enemy airspace to take out key targets such as nuclear weapons sites,potentially contributing to strategic deterrence.

此外，PAK FA的侧面或后方的雷达反射更为明显。俄罗斯军方似乎更愿意接受一款防御型战斗机，它在陆基雷达覆盖范围内朝着闯入者前进时是最隐秘的。然而，印度更倾向于一种全方位隐形飞机，它可以穿透敌方层层防御的领空，以摧毁敌方核设施等关键目标，从而增加战略威慑力。

The Indian Air Force was alsodoubtful of the reliability and 360-degree search capability of the PAK FA'sprototype N036 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar. Only three of about adozen PAK-FA prototypes have been outfitted with the N036 in a “reduced” configuration withoutside-facing antennas.

印度空军还质疑PAK FA原型机所携带的N036有源电子扫描阵列雷达的可靠性和360度搜索能力。目前12架PAK-FA原型机中只有大约3架装备了N036雷达，并且配置“缩水”，没有侧面天线。

Finally, the Indian officialswere wary that the FGFA did not have a modular engine, which meant that theturbofans would have to be shipped to Russia relatively frequently foroverhauls, rather than maintained locally. The high maintenance requirements ofRussian MiG-29 and Su-30 fighters serving in the Indian Air Force and Navyremain a sore point with the Indian military.

最后，印度官员对未来的FGFA战机没有模块化发动机非常警惕，因为这意味着现在使用的涡扇发动机必须较为频繁地运到俄罗斯进行检修，而不是在本地进行维护。当前，在印度空军和海军服役的俄罗斯米格-29和苏-30战斗机的高维护需求仍然是印度军方心中的痛点。

Moscow and New Delhi revised thecooperative arrangement several times between 2015 and 2017 in an attempt tosalvage the deal-with Russia first agreeing to downsize the Indian contributionto $3.7 billion, then later reportedly increasing the requested sum instead toaround $7 billion for research and development and a few prototypes, plus $135million per production aircraft, with expected delivery around 2028.

莫斯科和新德里在2015到2017年间多次修改了合同安排，试图挽救这一合作协议。一开始俄罗斯同意印度将投入缩减到37亿美元，据报道后来又将所需研发金额增加到70亿美元左右，最终每架飞机均价约1.35亿美元，预计交付时间在2028年左右。

Later in February 2018, Russiadeployed two—or possibly four —Su-57s to Hmeimim Air Base inSyria (site of a drone attack a few months earlier). As Russia had littletactical need for stealth attack jets over Syria, it was widely believed thedeployment was an attempt to promote the Russian stealth-fighter program bygiving them a “combat test,” even though the Su-57s were inless than fully operational condition. In any event, the stealth fightersreturned to Russia after only a week or two abroad.

2018年2月下旬，俄罗斯在叙利亚拉塔基亚的Hmeimim空军基地部署了两架或四架苏-57战斗机（几个月前无人机袭击地点）。由于俄罗斯在叙利亚战场对隐形战机的战术需求很少，人们普遍认为这一部署是为俄制隐形战斗机项目进行“实战测试”，尽管此时苏-57战斗机尚处于不完全状态。这几架隐形战机在境外停留一两周后就返回了俄罗斯。

Ultimately, New Delhi was notconvinced, and finally pulled the plug this April. Defense Secretary Mitra leftthe door open for possible purchase of the basic Su-57 model once it was fullyoperational (i.e., not just on paper) with the Russian military, or possiblyreordering a specialized Indian variant after that milestone is achieved. Asthat will likely take around a decade, there's a good chance India will lookfor an alternative stealth fighter sooner.

最终的测试结果没有让新德里信服，终于印度在今年四月宣布退出了合作计划。不过，印度防长西塔拉曼没有把合作之门完全关闭，她表示，要等苏-57在俄罗斯军队开始全状态服役而不仅仅是纸面上研发完成时再考虑购买计划，又或者俄方为印度打造出一款专属的改进型五代机后再考虑购买。而这可能要花上十几年的时间。在此期间，印度很可能会寻找其他可以快速获取的隐形战斗机替代苏-57。

The withdrawal of Indian money ismajor blow to the Russian side of the Su-57 program. Moscow still claims itwill eventually procure 220 Su-57s, but until funding materializes that willremain an aspirational goal, one the withdrawal of Indian funding will makethat much more difficult. Recently, the Kremlin has devoted more defensespending to strategic nuclear deterrence, and may have concluded that pumpingmoney into a small number of tactical stealth fighters does not provide asgreat a return on investment in the near term.

印度宣布撤资是对苏-57联合研制项目俄罗斯一方的重大打击。尽管莫斯科仍然声称最终将采购220架苏-57，然而除非获得足够的资金，这将永远只是一个雄心勃勃的目标罢了。而现在，印度资金撤出将使这一目标变得更加难以实现。最近，克尔姆林宫将更多的国防开支投入到战略核威慑中，他们可能已经有了结论，向少数战术隐形战机投入资金并不能在短期内收获可观的投资回报。

With the FGFA out of the picture,the Indian Air Force has two paths forward: the American F-35 Lightning II andIndia's own HAL AMCA stealth-fighter program, which you can see detailed here.At the same time both the Indian Air Force and Navy are also looking to procurenew fourth-generation fighters, which could include the U.S. Super Hornet or astealthed-up Su-35S variant.

将FGFA计划移除计划后，印度空军现在有两条前进的道路：美国F-35闪电II战斗机和印度自己的AMCA隐形战斗机计划。与此同时，印度空军和海军也在寻找新的第四代战斗机，这可能包括美国的超级大黄蜂或俄罗斯的苏-35S隐身改进型。

Although India's Defense Researchand Development Organization (DRDO) is excited about the prospects of the AMCA,and projects a flyable prototype by 2023, it realistically will require manyyears and the refining of multiple new technologies (AESA radar,high-performance turbofan engines, radar-absorbent materials) before it will beready. And the last Indian-designed jetfighter, the Tejas, has had seriousperformance shortfalls after a very lengthy development cycle.

尽管印度国防研究与发展组织（DRDO）对印度自己的AMCA战机前景倍感振奋，并预计在2023年之前制造出一架可以飞行的原型机，但实际上，印度仍需要对自己的多项技术进行改进升级（包括有源相控阵雷达、高性能涡扇发动机、吸收雷达波的隐形材料等等），这一过程将持续很多年。印度最近一次由自己设计的喷气式战斗机， “光辉”战机，在经历了漫长的研发周期后，至今依然存在严重的性能不足问题。

The F-35 may be subpar comparedto older jets in terms of raw kinematic flight performance, but it isstealthier than the Su-57, comes more-or-less ready for export, and sportshighly sophisticated sensors and networked computer systems that allow it toshare data with friendly forces. Though the F-35 has its own very extensivehistory of cost overruns and technical setbacks, and still suffers fromnumerous glitches, an Indian buy-in to the F-35 program would likely occur at alater stage. by which time hopefully more of the kinks will have been dealtwith (at the United States' expense) and price per unit may have dropped.Indeed, earlier this year, U.S. Pacific Command reported that India hasinquired about an F-35 purchase.

F-35与以往的战斗机相比，在机动性方面可能略逊一筹，但它比苏-57的隐身性能更强大，目前已经开始对外出口，并且拥有高度复杂的传感器和联网的计算机系统，允许F-35与系统内各伙伴飞机数据共享。尽管之前F-35也有非常严重的成本超支和技术挫折的历史，并且至今仍有许多问题有待解决，不过印度可能会在后续阶段购买F-35。希望到那时，F-35的诸多问题都已成功解决（在预算费用内），并且每架战机的平均价格能够降低。事实上，在今年早些时候，美国太平洋司令部报告说印度已经就购买F-35战机进行过询问。

A downside of the F-35 fromIndia's point of view, however, is that there would likely be limited prospectsfor technology transfer and local manufacture, though Lockheed could possiblyoffer some Indian support facilities as a concession. The United States mayalso fear that technology transferred to India could eventually wind up inRussian hands.

不过，从印度的角度来看，购买F-35的不利之处在于，尽管洛克希德公司可能会提供一些让步，比如为印度提供部分设备支援，但是进行技术转让和在印度制造的前景恐怕有限。美国也担心转移到印度的技术最终会落入俄罗斯手中。

Most importantly, investing inthe F-35 would tie India closely to the United States for decades, as thefighter's onboard computer and proprietary ground-based logistics system willrequire ongoing contractor support from Lockheed. Indeed, even the U.S.military has complained that it relies on that contract support more than itwould like.

更重要的是，对F-35项目的投资将使印度和美国未来几十年紧密联系在一起，目前F-35战斗机的机载计算机和陆基物流系统需要洛克希德公司合作承包商的支持。事实上，即使是美国军方也对此有所抱怨。

Historically, India has held somewariness of the United States, due to its (now fraying) alliance withPakistan?in 1971, Nixon even sent a carrier task force to threaten war withIndia?and has instead relied more on the Soviet Union and later Russia formilitary hardware. Indeed, Soviet-built MiG-21 jet fighters, T-54 and PT-76tanks, Mi-4 helicopters and antiship missiles played an important role insecuring India's victory in the 1971 Indo-Pakistani conflict.

历史上，印度一直对美国怀有警惕，因为美国在1971年与巴基斯坦结盟（现在盟友关系接近破裂），尼克松当时甚至派遣了一个特种部队以战争威胁印度。此后，印度更多地依赖苏联（以及后来的俄罗斯）的军事装备。事实上，苏联制造的米格-21喷气战斗机、T-54和PT-76坦克、米-4直升机和反舰导弹在确保印度在1971年印-巴冲突中取得胜利发挥了至关重要的作用。

However, India is reckoning witha changing twenty-first-century world order in which it is in securitycompetition with the wealthier People's Republic of China, which already hasdeveloped two stealth fighters, the J-20 and J-31. China is also a close allyof Pakistan, and has encircled India with military bases in Pakistan, Sri Lankaand Bangladesh. As the United States seeks to counterbalance China's risingpower, New Delhi shares more political interests with Washington than it doeswith Moscow.

然而，在21世纪的逐渐形成的新世界秩序中，印度认为自身的主要安全威胁来自于与更加富有的中国之间的竞争。中国已经开发出两款隐形战机，J-20和J-31。中国是巴基斯坦的亲密盟友，并通过在巴基斯坦，斯里兰卡和孟加拉建立军事基地对印度形成了包围。由于美国寻求伙伴制衡中国崛起，新德里将与华盛顿而非莫斯科有更多共同的政治利益。

This explains a dramatic warmingbetween New Delhi and Washington since the turn of the century, with milestonesranging from a 2005 civilian nuclear technology-sharing agreement to a 2016joint military base-sharing agreement. India now flies U.S.-made P-8 maritimepatrol planes, but has yet to purchase a U.S. jet fighter.

这可以很好的解释自21世纪以来新德里和华盛顿之间急剧升温的关系，从2005年民用核技术共享协议到2016年联合军事基地共享协议。目前，印度使用着美国制造的P8型海上巡逻机，但尚未购买美国战斗机。

In the past, India has resistedbeing dragged into foreign alliances: after all, it was one of five founders ofthe Non-Aligned Movement in 1961 at the height of the Cold War. Therefore,India's next steps following the dissolution of the stealth-fighter agreementwith Russia will be of interest—for its militarysignificance, but also as a gauge of how comfortable New Delhi is with furtherdeepening its relationship with the United States.

在过去，印度一直拒绝介入外国联盟：毕竟冷战时期（1961年）印度曾是“不结盟运动”的五个创立者之一。因此，当印度与俄罗斯的隐形战斗机协议解除后，它的下一步行动极具意义——不仅具有军事意义，同时也可以衡量未来印美两国关系能深化到何种程度。

作者：Sébastien Roblin