【国家利益】华盛顿的鹰派人士让金正恩感到恐惧 [美国媒体]

Washington's Hawks Frighten KimJong Un

华盛顿的鹰派人士让金正恩感到恐惧


                              
South Korean President MoonJae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un walk together at the truce villageof Panmunjom.

图片：韩国总统文在寅和朝鲜领导人金正恩一起走过板门店的停战地。

The emerging formation of apossibly more hawkish U.S. foreign policy may had played a big factor behindKim Jong-un's sudden secretive visit to Beijing ahead of his upcoming talkswith President Trump. The Trump administration's recent cabinet designations(i.e. Bolton, Pompeo) and strongly worded official documents (i.e. NDS, NSS)provide face and grounding to this transformation. The DPRK Supreme Leader seemto attach high importance to the upcoming meeting with his U.S. counterpart,realizing that serious consequences may take place if the talks failed.

近期美国外交政策变得愈发强硬，这可能是促使金正恩在与总统特朗普会谈前突然秘密访问北京的重要原因。特朗普政府最近任命的内阁人选（博尔顿、蓬佩奥）和措辞强硬的官方文件（即美国国家安全战略报告、美国国防战略报告）为朝鲜态度的转变提供了必要的基础。朝鲜最高领导人似乎高度重视即将举行的与美国总统的会晤，他意识到，如果会谈失败可能会产生严重后果。

The designation of John Boltonand Mike Pompeo as national security advisor and Secretary of Staterespectively demonstrate readiness to shift to a more hawkish U.S. foreign andsecurity policy. Both were considered as war hawks and advocates for regimechange in Iran, Syria, Libya and North Korea. Former U.S. Representative to UNBolton share similar nationalist and conservative views as Trump and continueto justify U.S. war against Iraq even after findings reveal that the regime didnot possess weapons of mass destruction as was initially speculated. If he haddone it for Iraq, it should not be difficult for him to argue for a more robustaction against DPRK which already possesses a nuclear weapons and missileprogram and possibly with its longtime ally and benefactor, China. Bolton is anotable figure in Fox News TV, a favorite channel of the president and one ofthe few media outlets that provides positive coverage of the Trumpadministration. Pompeo, on the other hand, has good personal relations withTrump, having served as Trump's CIA Director. He also has strong links with thedefense sector and a lifetime member of the National Rifle Associationgun-lobby group. Both Bolton and Pompeo also hail from the same RepublicanParty as the president. Shared views and good personal relations combine tomake Bolton and Pompeo's voices highly valued by Trump.

白宫任命约翰-博尔顿和麦克-蓬佩奥作为国家安全顾问和国务卿的的举动表明他们已经转向更加强硬的外交和安全政策。这两人都被视为鹰派好战分子，主张对伊朗、叙利亚、利比亚和朝鲜实行军事打击促使其政权更迭。美国前驻联合国代表博尔顿与特朗普分享了类似的民族主义和保守主义观点，并强调美国对伊拉克战争是正当的，即使后来的调查结果显示该政权没有像最初被指控的那样拥有大规模杀伤性武器。既然博尔顿曾经针对伊拉克制定了军事行动计划，他就完全有可能主张未来对朝鲜采取同样的行动，更何况朝鲜已经明确拥有核武器和弹道导弹计划，其来源可能和朝鲜的长期盟友——中国——有关。约翰-博尔顿是福克斯新闻电视台的着名嘉宾，他的节目特别受总统特朗普喜欢，同时，福克斯新闻也是为特朗普政府提供大量积极正面报道的少数媒体之一。另一位，麦克-蓬佩奥，则与特朗普有良好的私人关系，他曾担任特朗普麾下的中央情报局局长。蓬佩奥还与美国国防部门和全国步枪协会枪支游说团体的终身理事有着非常密切的联系。此外，约翰-博尔顿和麦克-蓬佩奥都来自共和党。共同的观点和良好的个人关系结合起来，使得博尔顿和蓬佩奥的观点受到特朗普的高度重视。

The lack of a strongcountervailing faction within the White House may only solidify this hawkishfoothold in the executive branch. The resignation/removal of cabinet officialswho seem to differ from Trump on policy issues suggests minimum tolerance fordissenting opinions and diversity of views. Former State Secretary RexTillerson who earlier initiated talks with DPRK was undermined by Trumptweeting that Tillerson was just wasting his time. Tillerson also did damagecontrol after the president's controversial “shithole” remarks in relation tosome countries, such as from Africa. Ex-economic adviser Gary Cohn supportedthe tax reform, but opposed the tariff policy. The departure of Cohn may leaveno brake to the ascendance of a hawkish trade policy under senior economic aidePeter Navarro, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, and U.S. Trade RepresentativeRobert Lightizer, who are all supportive of the tariff and a moreconfrontational trade policy, especially against China.

如今，白宫内部缺乏强有力的反对派的局面会持续巩固鹰派人士在行政部门的立足点。与特朗普在政策问题上观点不同的内阁官员纷纷辞职或被撤职，表明了现任美国政府对不同意见和观点多样性的容忍度已降到最低。前国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森早些时候曾经发起了与朝鲜的会谈，但特朗普发表推特说蒂勒森只是在浪费时间。在总统特朗普对非洲国家发表极具争议的“屎坑”言论后，蒂勒森也曾前往非洲进行了 “安抚和止损”。美国前经济顾问加里·科恩支持税收改革，但反对关税政策。科恩的离去可能无法再阻止高级经济助理彼得·纳瓦罗（译注：经济学家，代表作品《即将到来的中国战争》、《被中国杀死》、《卧虎：中国军国主义对世界意味着什么》等）、商务部长威尔伯·罗斯和美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽在鹰派贸易政策上的优势。这些鹰派人士都支持提高关税和更具对抗性的贸易政策，尤其是针对中国。

The December 2017 NationalSecurity Strategy and the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS) also spokestrongly against North Korea, as well as Iran (both described as a rogueregimes) and major power rivals China and Russia (described as revisionistpowers). NDS, in particular, identified inter-state strategic competition, notterrorism, as the key challenge confronting America. That China and North Koreawere both named in the official documents surely created a common agenda for Xiand Kim to talk about.

2017年12月出台的美国国家安全战略报告（NSS）和2018年国防战略报告（NDS）也强烈针对朝鲜和伊朗（将两国均描述为流氓政权），以及主要竞争对手中国和俄罗斯（称其为修正主义势力）。特别是2018年国防战略报告确定了未来美国面临的主要挑战来自于大国间的战略竞争，而非恐怖主义。由于中国和朝鲜都在这份官方文件里被点名，因此这也必然成为两国领导人会面后谈论的共同话题。

All these recent developmentsraise the stakes for the Trump-Kim meeting. If the talks fail, Trump and hisincreasingly hawkish cabinet can argue that they gave diplomacy a chance beforeundertaking two possible courses of action: 1) expand existing sanctionsagainst DPRK or; 2) use the military option. This scenario should give Kimenough reason to worry. Hence, any opportunity to strengthen his position aheadof the talks and secure the backing of his strong neighbor and historical allyis necessary. This is a major motive behind the visit to Beijing, his firstforeign trip since assuming power.

所有近期的事态发展都增加了特朗普和金正恩会谈的风险。如果会谈失败，特朗普和他日益强硬的内阁可以辩称说，他们曾经给过朝鲜外交机会，接下来就要进行以下两个行动选项：1）扩大对朝鲜的现有制裁；2）选择军事行动。这样的局面足够让金正恩为之忧心忡忡。因此，金正恩有必要在会谈前加强自己的立场，并确保得到他的强大邻居和历史盟友的支持，这是他访问北京的主要动机。而访问北京是金正恩执政以来第一次出国访问。

Kim had long been known todemonstrate independence even from Beijing despite being dependent on China formost of its food, energy, finance and trade requirements. The assassination ofhis uncle and other officials known to be close to Beijing and timing DPRKmissile tests to coincide with key events hosted by China illustrate his desireto carve his self-reliance policy. As such, the urgency by which he was willingto mend ties with Beijing suggests a possible increase in DPRK's externalthreat perception and the need to obtain guarantees and support from hiscountry's traditional benefactor and friend. After meeting President Xi, Kim isset to meet his ROK counterpart. These two prior meetings would somehowincrease his leverage ahead of the summit with Trump. Kim's visit to Beijingand Seoul may somehow give cushion against regime change if his meeting withTrump fail. But whether he obtained such guarantee from Beijing is speculative.

此前，金正恩一直表现得非常独立，甚至与北京也关系冷淡，尽管朝鲜在食物，能源，金融和贸易等大量领域都依赖于中国。诸如处死他的姑父张成泽，在北京主办关键活动时进行导弹试验等等举动，都说明他想维持独立发展的政策。如今，金正恩迫切希望修补与中国的关系的举动表明他感知到朝鲜面临的外部威胁正在急剧加大，他急需从朝鲜的传统盟友那里获得保证和支持。在与中国国家主席见面后，金正恩接着又和韩国总统文在寅会晤。在与特朗普会谈前，这两场会议将会增加他的影响力。如果金正恩与特朗普会谈失败，那么他对北京和汉城的访问可能会为其政权更迭提供缓冲。但值得怀疑的是，金正恩是否从北京获得了这样的担保。

For China, Kim's visit bolstersits importance as a major regional player. Xi, no doubt, was able to impress onKim how significant China is for DPRK and for any efforts to resolve thenuclear issue, as well as the future of the Korean Peninsula. It remains to beseen whether Kim will take this seriously after the threat of U.S. interventionrecedes or the maximum pressure policy loosens. The visit enabled Beijing toconvey its interests to DPRK and intimated that such interests should not be harmedin any negotiations Kim may enter with ROK or United States.

对中国而言，金正恩的拜访无疑支撑了中国作为该区域重要大国的观点。毫无疑问，中国能够让朝鲜的核策略发生显着变化，也能让朝鲜乃至朝鲜半岛的未来发生巨大的改变。在美国军事干预的威胁消退后，或者“最大压力政策”松动后，朝鲜是否还会认真对待半岛核问题有待进一步观察。此外，金正恩的这次拜访也让中国向朝鲜说明了自己的利益底线，并指出当朝鲜与韩国或美国进行任何谈判时，自己的利益不应受到损害。

That Kim decided to meet Xi firstbefore Trump and for China not coordinating the visit with United States may betaken as a slight by the United States. It could also be seen as a classic DPRKstrategy of driving a wedge between international partners?United States, ROK,Japan, China, Russia?to prevent a united position that will be negative to DPRKinterests, especially its nuclear ambitions. China may be seen as breakingcommon cause with United States, ROK, Japan, and the rest of the internationalcommunity in exerting maximum pressure through sanctions to discourage DPRKfrom further developing its nuclear and missile weapons program and insteadsway Pyongyang to eventually dismantle them. This may ruffle some feathers withWashington, especially since the visit came after recent announcement thatChina will undertake retaliatory measures in response to U.S. tariffimpositions.

对美国而言，金正恩在决定去在会见特朗普之前先访问中国领导人而非协调与美国关系的行为可能被视作对美国的轻慢举措。这一招也是朝鲜离间几位国际合作伙伴——美国，韩国，日本，中国，俄罗斯——的经典手法。朝鲜需要避免这几个国家结成统一战线，这样就不利于维护朝鲜自身的利益，特别是它拥核的野心。在此之前，整个国际社会，特别是美国，韩国和日本，都在通过制裁施以最大压力来阻止朝鲜进一步发展其导弹和核武器计划，从而促使平壤政策动摇并最终废除核武器和弹道导弹，只有中国常常阻挠这一共同事业。金正恩提前访华的行为可能激怒华盛顿一些高层，特别是因为这场访问的时间恰好定在中国刚刚宣布将对美国进行报复性关税惩罚措施后。（这段话真是酸得掉牙，看老美满腹怨怼的抹黑造谣还要装得风轻云淡忍不住笑出了声…）

The Beijing visit and Kim's nextstop at Seoul may undercut U.S. advantage ahead of the Trump-Kim meet. Criticsof Trump's upcoming talks with Kim argue that the meeting will not give anygain for the United States. This is especially so as such talks will take placewithout preconditions and without DPRK undertaking any worthy positive actionto merit such high-level exchange. It was even seen as rewarding Kim as DPRKstate-run media may depict the meeting as American recognition of North Koreaas a nuclear weapons state. Hence, under these circumstances, a Trump-Kimmeeting is considered premature and unwise by some quarters.

金正恩的北京之行和下一站首尔会谈可能会削弱美国在金&川会晤前的优势。对特朗普与金正恩即将举行的会谈持批评态度的人士认为，这次会议不会给美国带来任何好处。尤其是这场会谈没有预设任何前提条件，即，朝鲜没有采取任何积极行动来促成这种高级别的会晤。批评人士认为，这场会谈甚至可以被视作对金正恩的奖励。朝鲜官方媒体可能将这次会议描述成美国承认朝鲜是拥核国家。因此，在这种情况下，特朗普和金正恩的会面被认为是不成熟和不明智的行为。

In sum, fear of a more hawkishU.S. foreign policy drove Kim's sudden secretive visit to Beijing. Mendingfrayed ties and securing support against the backdrop of increasing isolationconstitute key DPRK agendas. It is arguable what Beijing actually providedPyongyang and it is unlikely for Xi to simply allow himself to be hijacked byKim's predicament. That said, recent U.S. actions and domestic politicaldevelopments surely create shared concerns for both Northeast Asian neighbors.

总而言之，对美国日渐强硬的外交政策的恐惧驱使金正恩突然秘密访问北京。修补（与中国）磨损的关系纽带，确保在日益孤立的背景下获得支持，这是朝鲜的关键目的。值得揣摩的是，北京究竟能为平壤提供何种程度的帮助？中国不太可能允许自己被朝鲜的困境绑架。也可以说，最近美国的行动和东北亚各国的国内政治局面为他们带来了共同的担忧。

作者Lucio Blanco Pitlo III