伊朗惧怕以色列的原因——核武器 [美国媒体]

IranFears Israel for One Reason: Nuclear Weapons

伊朗惧怕以色列的原因——核武器

来源网站：国家利益
原文时间：2018-05-01 07:59:34



Not much is known about earlyIsraeli weapons, particularly their yield and the size of the stockpile. Thestrategic situation, in which Israel was outnumbered in conventional weaponsbut had no nuclear adversaries, meant Israel likely had smaller tacticalnuclear weapons to destroy masses of attacking Arab tanks, military bases andmilitary airfields. Still, the relatively short ranges between Israel and itsneighbors meant that the Jericho missile, with only a three-hundred-mile range,could still hit Cairo and Damascus from the Negev desert.

我们对以色列早期武器知之甚少，特别是产量和库存规模上。战略上，虽然以色列的常规武器数量被超越，但它没有核武器对手，这意味着以色列可能拥有摧毁大量阿拉伯坦克、军事基地和军用机场的小型战术核武器。尽管如此，以色列与邻国相对较短的距离，意味着射程仅有300英里的耶利哥导弹仍可从内盖夫沙漠打击开罗和大马士革。

In a private email leaked tothe public in September of 2016, former secretary of state and retired U.S.Army general Colin Powell alluded to Israel having an arsenal of “200 nuclearweapons.” While this number appears to be an exaggeration, there is no doubtthat Israel does have a small but powerful nuclear stockpile, spread out amongits armed forces. Israeli nuclear weapons guard against everything from defeatin conventional warfare to serving to deter hostile states from launchingnuclear, chemical and biological warfare attacks against the tiny country.Regardless, the goal is the same: to prevent the destruction of the Jewishstate.

2016年9月泄露给公众的私人邮件中，美国前国务卿、退役将军鲍威尔暗示以色列拥有“200枚核武器”。虽然这个数字似乎有些夸张，但毫无疑问，以色列确实拥有一个规模虽小但威力巨大的核储备，并分散在其武装力量之中。以色列的核武器防范，包括从常规战争的失败到阻止敌国对其发动核、化学和生物战争的一切。无论如何，其目标始终如一：防止犹太国家毁灭。

Israel set off to join thenuclear club in the 1950s. David Ben-Gurion was reportedly obsessed withdeveloping the bomb as insurance against Israel's enemies. Although anambitious goal for such a small, initially impoverished country, Israel did nothave any security guarantees with larger, more powerful states-particularly theUnited States. The country was on its own, even buying conventional weapons offthe black market to arm the new Israeli Defense Forces. Nuclear weapons wouldbe the ultimate form of insurance for a people that had suffered persecutionbut now had the means to control their own destiny.

20世纪50年代，以色列开始加入核俱乐部。据报道，戴维·本-古里安一直致力于研发核弹，以防范以色列的敌人。尽管以色列这个最初贫穷的小国雄心勃勃，但是它没有任何大国提供安全保障——特别是美国。这个国家自力更生，甚至在黑市上购买常规武器来武装新以色列国防军。核武器是遭迫害的人民的最终保障，现在这个国家有了控制自己命运的手段。

Ben-Gurion instructed hisscience adviser, Ernst David Bergmann, to direct Israel's clandestine nucleareffort and set up and chair the Israel Atomic Energy Commission. Shimon Peres,who later went on to serve as president and prime minister of Israel,cultivated contacts with a sympathetic France that resulted in the latteragreeing to supply a large, heavy water nuclear reactor and an undergroundplutonium reprocessing plant, which would turn spent reactor fuel into the keyingredient for nuclear weapons. The reactor was built at Dimona in the Negevdesert.

本-古里安对科学顾问恩斯特·大卫·伯格曼指示，让他指导以色列的秘密核工作，并设立主持以色列原子能委员会。后来成为以色列总统和总理的希蒙·佩雷斯与法国建立联系，争取后者提供重水反应堆和地下钚再处理工厂，这些反应堆燃料是核武器的关键因素。反应堆建造在内盖夫沙漠的迪莫纳。

By the late 1960s the UnitedStates assessed Israeli nukes as “probable,” and U.S. efforts to slow thenuclear program and get Israel to join the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty wentnowhere. Finally in September 1969, Nixon and Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meirreportedly reached a secret agreement that the United States would cease itsdemand for inspections and Israeli compliance with antiproliferation efforts,and in return Israel would not declare or test its nuclear weapons.

到20世纪60年代末，美国评估以色列“可能有”核武器，美国努力减缓核项目，让以色列加入《不扩散核武器条约》，但收效甚微。最终在1969年9月，尼克松和以色列总理果尔达·梅厄达成一项秘密协议，即美国停止对以色列进行检查及其遵守反扩散的要求，作为回报，以色列不再宣布或测试核武器。

Israel didn't have long towait for its first nuclear crisis. The 1973 Yom Kippur War saw Arab armiesachieve strategic surprise, sending Israeli ground forces reeling in both inthe Sinai desert and the Golan Heights. Israeli nuclear weapons were placed onalert and loaded onto Jericho I surface-to-surface missiles and F-4 Phantoms.Determined Israeli counteroffensives were able to turn the situation on bothfronts around, and the weapons were not ultimately used.

没过多久，以色列出现第一次核危机。1973年的赎罪日战争中，阿拉伯军队取得了战略胜利，使以色列地面部队在西奈沙漠和戈兰高地遭受重创。以色列的核武器处于戒备状态，并装载在耶利哥I地对地导弹和F-4幻影上，以确保以色列反攻时能够扭转双方局势，但最终并未使用这些武器。

Not much is known about earlyIsraeli weapons, particularly their yield and the size of the stockpile. Thestrategic situation, in which Israel was outnumbered in conventional weaponsbut had no nuclear adversaries, meant Israel likely had smaller tacticalnuclear weapons to destroy masses of attacking Arab tanks, military bases andmilitary airfields. Still, the relatively short ranges between Israel and itsneighbors meant that the Jericho missile, with only a three-hundred-mile range,could still hit Cairo and Damascus from the Negev desert.

我们对早期的以色列武器知之甚少，特别是产量和库存规模。战略态势上，虽然以色列的常规武器数量被超越，但它没有核武器对手，这意味着以色列可能拥有摧毁大量阿拉伯坦克、军事基地和军用机场的小型战术核武器。尽管如此，以色列与邻国相对较短的距离，意味着射程仅有300英里的耶利哥导弹仍可从内盖夫沙漠打击开罗和大马士革。

Israel does not confirm nordeny having nuclear weapons. Experts generally assess the country as currentlyhaving approximately eighty nuclear weapons, fewer than countries such asFrance, China and the United Kingdom, but still a sizeable number consideringits adversaries have none. These weapons are spread out among Israel's versionof a nuclear “triad” of land-, air- and sea-based forces scattered in a waythat they deter surprise nuclear attack.

以色列对其核武器不置可否，专家们普遍认为，以色列目前拥有大约80枚核武器，比法国、中国和英国少，但考虑到它的对手没有核武器，这个数字仍然相当可观。这些武器配备在以色列陆、空和海“三位一体”部队中，以阻止突发的核攻击。

Israel's first nuclearweapons were likely gravity bombs delivered by fighter aircraft. The F-4Phantom is thought to be the first delivery system; as a large, twin-enginerobust fighter, the Phantom was probably the first aircraft in the Israeli AirForce capable of carrying a first generation nuclear device. A new, smallergeneration of nuclear gravity bombs likely equips F-15I and F-16I fighters.While some might argue a gravity bomb is obsolete in light of Israeli advancesin missile technology, a manned aircraft allows a nuclear strike to be recalledright up to the last minute.

以色列的第一批核武器很可能是由战斗机提供的重力炸弹。作为一个大型双引擎强劲战斗机，F-4幻影被认为是第一批运载系统，它可能是以色列空军第一个能够搭载首代核装置的飞机。新一代的小型核重力炸弹可能装备在F-15I和F-16I战斗机上。一些人可能会认为，鉴于以色列在导弹技术方面的进步，重力弹过时，但有人驾驶的飞机可在最后一刻召回核打击。

Israel's first land-basednuclear weapons were based on Jericho I missiles developed in cooperation withFrance. Jericho I is believed to have been retired, replaced by Jericho II and-III ballistic missiles. Jericho II has a range of 932 miles, while JerichoIII, designed to hold Iran and other distant states at risk, has a range of atleast 3,106 miles. The total number of Israeli ballistic missiles is unknown,but estimated by experts to number at least two dozen.

以色列的第一个陆基核武器基于与法国合作开发的耶利哥I导弹。据悉，耶利哥I已经退休，被耶利哥II和III取代。耶利哥II的射程为932英里，而耶利哥III射程至少为3106英里，旨在危险中控制伊朗和其他遥远的国家。以色列的弹道导弹总数未知，但专家估计至少有24枚。

Like other nuclear-armednations, the Israeli Navy has reportedly deployed nukes to what is generallyagreed to as the most survivable seagoing platform: submarines. Israel has fiveGerman-built Dolphin-class submarines, which experts believe are equipped withnuclear-tipped cruise missiles. The cruise missiles are reportedly based offthe Popeye air-to-ground missile or the Gabriel antiship missile. This ensuresa so-called “second-strike capability”-as long as one submarine is on patrol,some portion of Israel's nuclear deterrent remains invulnerable to a nuclearfirst strike, guaranteeing the ability to launch a nuclear counterattack.

就像其他拥有核武器的国家一样，据报道，以色列海军已将核武器部署到通常被认为是最具生存力的海上平台潜艇上。以色列有五艘德国建造的海豚级潜艇，专家认为这些潜艇装备有核弹头巡航导弹。据报道，巡航导弹基于大力水手空对地导弹或天使反舰导弹。这确保了所谓的“二次打击能力”——只要一艘潜艇在巡逻，以色列的部分核威慑力量就不会受到核打击，从而保证了发动核反击的能力。

The establishment of anuclear triad demonstrates how seriously Israel takes the idea of nucleardeterrence. The country will likely not declare itself a nuclear power any timesoon; ambiguity over ownership of nukes has served the country very well. The2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and general instability across the MiddleEast has ensured that Israel will likely remain the only nuclear-armed state inthe region for the foreseeable future, but a collapse of the agreement or somenew nuclear program could easily change that. In the meantime, Israel'sultimate insurance policy isn't going anywhere.

核三角的建立展示了以色列对核威慑的重视程度。很可能短时间内这个国家不会宣布自己是核大国，因为核武器所有权的含糊不清对其非常有利。2015年联合全面行动计划以及中东地区普遍不稳定性，确保了以色列在可预见的未来仍将是该地区唯一拥有核武器的国家，但协议的破裂或一些新的核项目可轻易改变这种状况。与此同时，以色列的终极保险政策并不会改变。

Kyle Mizokami is a defenseand national-security writer based in San Francisco who has appeared in theDiplomat, Foreign Policy, War is Boring and the Daily Beast. In 2009, hecofounded the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch. You can followhim on Twitter: @KyleMizokami.

Kyle Mizokami是一位旧金山的国防和国家安全作家，他的文章发表在Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Waris Boring 以及 the Daily Beast上。2009年，他共创了防卫与安全博客日本安全观察。