美国如何为伊朗在中东的成功铺路 [美国媒体]

An Iranian military fighter plane flies past an oil tanker duringnaval manoeuvres in the Gulf and Sea of Oman April 5, 2006. REUTERS/FarsNews/File Photo

2006年4月5日，一架伊朗军机在海湾和阿曼海的海军演习中飞越一艘油轮 路透社/法尔斯新闻/档案照片

The Trump administration claims that all of its efforts for liberalimprovement of Middle East have been ruined by Iran. U.S. President DonaldTrump has said that America has paid with money and blood only to be rewardedwith abuse from the Ayatollahs. How correct is this notion?

特朗普政府声称，所有对中东自由改善的努力都被伊朗破坏了。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾说过，美国用金钱和鲜血换来的只有阿亚图拉的虐待，这个概念有多正确?

The Middle East in general-and west of Asia in particular-is knownfor its mosaic of identities and political structure. Complications, intereststhat have been interfered with, and values are boiling in the pot of globalreligions. Jews, Christians, Muslims (Shia and Sunni) and various otherdependent and independent religions and cults-besides diverse ethnic identitieslike Arabs, Persians, Turks, and Kurds-are shaping western Asia, which isunique in the world.

整个中东地区以其独特的身份和政治结构而闻名，尤其是亚洲西部。在全球宗教中，复杂的、被干扰的利益和价值观正在沸腾。犹太人、基督教徒、穆斯林(什叶派和逊尼派)以及各种其他独立或非独立的宗教及邪教——除了阿拉伯人、波斯人、土耳其人和库尔德人等不同的民族身份——正在塑造着世界上独一无二的西亚。

Each of these groups have their own identity and interests, whichtend to collide, but sometimes they match up. For centuries this region wasdivided between Ottoman Empire and Persian Empire. After the presence of theTurks and Persians diminished and the European maritime powers era commenced, theregion began to collapse; Britain, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands andRussia each had a share of that cake.

每一个群体都有自己的身份和利益，这往往会发生冲突，但有时也会合作。几个世纪以来，这个地区被奥斯曼帝国和波斯帝国分割开来。土耳其和波斯人出现后，欧洲海上列强时代开始，这个地区开始瓦解，英国、法国、西班牙、葡萄牙、荷兰和俄罗斯各占一块蛋糕。

After World War I, a new map of region presented. After World WarII and the withdrawal of the Europeans, the United States replaced them andencountered the Soviet Union. Although the structure of the nations andidentities remained fixed (except in the case of Israel), various networks ofpowers throughout the last century have come and gone and failed. But oneescalating factor did appear to be consistent: chaos.

第一次世界大战之后，一份新的地区地图呈现出来。第二次世界大战结束后，欧洲人撤离，美国取代了他们，并遭遇了苏联。虽然各国的结构和身份仍然是固定的(以色列除外)，但各种各样的权力网络在过去的一个世纪里来来去去，并以失败告终。但是一个不断升级的因素似乎一致:混乱。

There has been an increasing trend of tension in the region sincethe 1940s, which is when the United States began trying to control the variouscrises, such as Iran's oil fire, its coup, the Arab-Israeli War, the revolutionin Oman, Turkey's frequent coups, Afghanistan occupation by USSR forces, theIslamic Revolution in Iran, the hostage crisis, and then war in Iraq,Afghanistan, and the endless enmity between Israel and Palestinians and soforth. The United States has paid for a lot but gained little in return. It isnotable that Obama decided, for the most part, to leave the region due to itscontinuous frustrating challenges. That decision delivered the region's affairsto proxies.

自二十世纪40年代以来，该地区的趋势已经越来越紧张，美国开始试图控制各种危机，如伊朗的石油大火、政变、阿以战争、阿曼的革命、土耳其的频繁政变、阿富汗被苏联军队占领、伊朗的伊斯兰革命、人质危机、伊拉克战争、阿富汗战争以及以色列和巴勒斯坦之间无尽的敌意等等。美国付出了很多，但收获甚微。值得注意的是，奥巴马决定离开该地区，在很大程度上是因为它持续不断的令人沮丧的挑战，这个决定将该地区的事务交给了代理人。

Iran is the one country that seems to have repeatedly interferedwith America's interest. Most of America's strategies describe Iran by as anaxis of evil or a country that needs to be contained. In recent years, most ofAmerica's operations west of Asia have served Iran's interest and given it theupper hand. For example, removing Saddam Hussein and giving Shia groups accessto power were gifts that brought Iran's allies to power. The war in Afghanistanyielded a similar result. Defeating Taliban opened another field in Iran topenetrate. In both these cases Iran could establish ties with defeated forcesand use them against the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan. Four decades of theIslamic Revolution, however, have altered Iran's political landscape. Now ithas more realistic actors which can benefit from all capacities in foreign andregional policy against its main enemy: America.

伊朗是一个似乎多次干涉美国利益的国家。美国的大多数战略都把伊朗描述成一个邪恶轴心，或者一个需要控制的国家。近年来，美国在亚洲西部的大部分业务都为伊朗的利益服务，并使其占据上风。例如，推翻萨达姆•侯赛因，让什叶派团体掌权，这些让伊朗的盟友获得权力礼物，阿富汗战争也产生了类似的结果，击败塔利班在伊朗开辟了另一个领域。在这两种情况下，伊朗可以与被击败的军队建立联系，并在伊拉克和阿富汗利用他们对付美国人。然而，四十年的伊斯兰革命已经改变了伊朗的政治面貌，现在，它有了更现实的角色，可以从外交和区域政策等所有能力中获益，并对抗其主要敌人:美国。

Iran could establish a strong state internally and enhance itsinfluence in the region, which was vacuumed by U.S. operations. The most recentcase is in Syria, which is where the United States, Russia, Europeans, Arabs,Turks and Iranians were fighting against the Islamic State. The Islamic State'sbreakdown was the biggest achievement of the Syrian government, an ally ofIran. After the defeat of the Islamic State, both the United States and Israelclaim that Iran could redirect released territories to fight against Westernforces in Syria.

伊朗可以在国内建立一个强大的州，并增强其在该地区的影响力，而美国对该地区毫无影响。最近的事件发生在叙利亚，那里是美国、俄罗斯、欧洲、阿拉伯、土耳其和伊朗人对抗伊斯兰国的地方。作为伊朗的盟友，叙利亚政府在伊斯兰国的崩溃中取得最大成就。在伊斯兰国被击败后，美国和以色列都声称伊朗可以重定向被释放的领土，以对抗叙利亚西方势力。

Thus, the security dilemma that is shaping west Asia cannot beeasily and cheaply solved. To make matters more complicated, the United Statesis trying to draw closer its Saudi Arabia ally and get support for its aerialwar in Yemen?and perhaps even get it to help form a frontline with Israelagainst Iran. Yemen is another case where Iran has advantage in the region. Thecurrent coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran in Syria is anotherobvious failure of U.S. strategies in the region.

因此，西亚的安全困境无法轻易解决，也不容易解决。让事情变得更复杂的是，美国正试图拉拢沙特阿拉伯的盟友，并支持其在也门的空中战争，甚至可能让它帮助以色列对抗伊朗。也门是另一个伊朗在该地区具有优势的例子，目前，俄罗斯、土耳其和伊朗在叙利亚的协调是美国在该地区战略的另一个明显失败。

It now seems that will not be easy to push Iran out of certainconquered fields. All in all, the mosaic of identities and interests in westernAsia continues to conflict with one another and the chaos is increasing.Iranians were historically good diplomats and brave soldiers in the MiddleEast. Today, the United States understands that its money and blood have servedIran in many ways.

现在看来，要把伊朗从某些已被征服的领域驱逐出去并不容易。总而言之，西亚的身份和利益的马赛克不断地相互冲突，混乱不断。在中东，伊朗人历来是优秀的外交家和勇敢的士兵。如今，美国明白，它的金钱和鲜血在许多方面服务了伊朗。

Aliakbar Kiani has a doctorate in international relations. He is auniversity lecturer in Iran. He formerly served as international-affairs expertfor Iran's president. He frequently writes on Iranian international politics.

Aliakbar Kiani拥有国际关系博士学位，是伊朗的大学讲师。他曾担任伊朗总统的国际事务专家，并经常写伊朗的国际政治。