特朗普与朝韩没什么关系；朝鲜、韩国，特别是中国，才几乎完全是促成南北和谈的原因 [美国媒体]

Trump has little to do with Korea; SK, NK, and especially China are almost entirely the reason for negotiations

特朗普与朝韩没什么关系；朝鲜、韩国，特别是中国，才几乎完全是促成南北和谈的原因



IMO, peace talks are way more timing and the other leaders than anything Trump has done. NK has now finished their nuclear weapon and ICBM programs, or are at least close enough that such a conclusion is all but inevitable within the very near future. This explains why they have promised not to do anymore testing, because they don't need to. South Korea has a president who is very open to peaceful relations with NK. 1 If you want to skip the stuff about the THAAD battery ctrl+f for "sunshine policy". Another part of this is because the percent of South Koreans who care about re-unification is rapidly shrinking as the younger generations simply don't have any reason to care about it. So if President Moon can successfully negotiate some sort of monumental peace deal it may revitalize the hope for re-unification and keep it, and Moon's administration, going for a while longer. If this falls through, it will all but doom the pro-unification side of Korean politics to the background in the near future.

在我看来，（朝韩）和平谈判能够举行，更多的原因在于时机和其他领导人，而不是特朗普的作为。现在，朝鲜已经完成了他们的核武器和洲际弹道导弹计划，或者至少已经基本完成，距离全面完成绝对只是个时间问题。这解释了为什么他们承诺不再做测试，因为他们该做的测试都已经做完了。韩国有一位非常愿意与朝鲜保持和平关系的总统。如果你想跳过“萨德”系统，请按“ctrl+f”搜索“阳光政策”。另一部分原因在于，韩国人对南北统一的关注度正在迅速下降，因为年轻一代根本没有动机去关心这个议题。因此，如果文在寅总统能够成功地通过谈判达成某种重大的和平协议，就可能会使南北统一的希望重新焕发生机，并将其保持热度，而文在寅政府也能因此延长执政期。如果这一切都失败了，那么在不久的将来，韩国支持统一的政治立场将可能遭受灭顶之灾。

The biggest factor in my opinion though is China. Jinping has solidified his rule, so now his attention can shift more from gathering internal support and suppressing dissidence, to furthering Chinese interests abroad. One of the primary goals for China and Jinping is garnering stronger relations with South Korea and drawing them out of the US's sphere of influence. The biggest obstacle in the way of China-SK relations? North Korea. As long as North and South Korea are so strongly hostile to each other the US will be able to use South Korea as one of our two focal points to our Asia-Pacific operations. As long as South Korea is a major base for US forces, allowing the US to influence SK and have bases very near to China, China-SK relations will be strained. Peace between NK-SK will absolutely include the withdrawing of a large portion of our forces in SK, weakening our position and opening SK to more friendly relations with China. And so far, the Moon administration is proving to be the perfect government for China's plans to come to fruition. This is why China has finally agreed to begin heavier sanctions on North Korea. Another nice little bonus for Jinping is that by doing so and giving NK further reason to come to the table, Jinping can be seen abroad as the man who helped make peace between the Koreas, distracting from negative PR he he has received from cracking down on opposition and removing term limits. Peace on the peninsula was also the major reason for the recent public visit to Beijing so clearly this is an important topic for Jinping.

在我看来，最大的因素是中国。中国领导人的地位已得到巩固，所以现在中国的注意力可以更多的从聚集内部支持和压制异议，向促进中国海外利益转移。中国的主要目标之一是与韩国建立更紧密的关系，并将其从美国的势力范围中拉离出来。中韩关系的最大障碍是什么？是朝鲜。只要朝鲜和韩国对彼此怀有如此强烈的敌意，美国就能把韩国作为我们在亚太地区行动的两个焦点之一。只要韩国是美军的一个主要基地，允许美国对韩国施加影响，并在中国的家门口建立基地，中国与韩国的关系就会紧张。（要实现）朝韩之间的和平将绝对包括：撤出我们在韩国的大部分兵力，削弱我们的立场，并使韩国更加倾向中国。到目前为止，文在寅政府正在被证明是一个中国借以实现其计划的完美政府。这就是为什么中国最终同意对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁的原因。而中国由此得到的另一个很棒的小彩蛋则是：通过实施对朝制裁，并给了朝鲜回到谈判桌前更充分的理由，外界会将中国视为帮助实现朝韩和平的推动者，并分散对于中国压制反对派和移除任期制的负面关注度。半岛的和平也是（三胖）最近对北京进行公开访问的主要原因，因此很明显，对中国来说，这是一个重要议题。

Another factor to note with China is that Trump's foreign policy has severely harmed our relations and image with many nations and regions across the globe, but none more so than in Africa. And no nation is currently in a better situation, and has more interest, to replace the US as the major ally of the continent than China. This rings true across the globe, with China and Russia better able to spread their influence, and other nations or groups like the EU are forced to look at how to get by without the US as well.

另一个值得注意的因素是，特朗普的外交政策严重损害了我们与世界上许多国家和地区的关系和形象，在非洲最严重。目前，没有哪个国家相比中国有更好现状、更多的利益、更能取代美国成为非洲大陆的主要盟友。全球范围内皆是如此，中国和俄罗斯能够更好地传播他们的影响力，而其他国家或团体，如欧盟，也不得不考虑如何在没有美国的情况下实现这一目标。

Trump is pretty much helping China and Russia's foreign interests all on his own, so by making Trump look good and increasing the chances Trump will win re-election, it will give China four more years to exploit Trump's failing diplomacy abroad. You might say "But what about the sanctions on China, why would Jinping want that?" My opinion on that in short, is that although Jinping knows it hurts China in the short-run, the ties China can forge while Trump is in office are much more important in the long run. I think a major problem people have when discussing autocratic nations is we look at them through the eyes of people who live in democratic nations. In our nations our politicians have to make policy that will appease their voters in the now or they risk being voted and not being able to accomplish anything. This risk does not exist in nations like North Korea, Russia, or China. Putin, Jinping, and Kim Jong are all able to shape policy while looking much more at the long-run, as they have far less to worry about from any negative reactions due to the short-run consequences.

特朗普基本上是在全力帮助推动中国和俄罗斯的海外利益，因此，通过让特朗普看起来不错，并增加特朗普赢得连任的机会，这将让中国有4年的时间来利用特朗普在海外的失败外交。你可能会说，“但是，对中国的制裁又怎么讲，为什么中国想要遭到制裁？”简而言之，我的观点是，尽管中国知道制裁短期内会伤害中国，但从长远来看，中国在特朗普执政期间能够打造的纽带更加重要。我认为，人们在讨论集权国家时遇到的一个主要问题在于，我们是通过生活在民主国家的人民的视角来看待他们的。在我们的国家，我们的政治家必须制定安抚他们选民的政策，否则他们就有可能有被投（反对）票的风险，无法做成任何事情。这种风险在朝鲜、俄罗斯或中国等国家并不存在。普京、中国国家主席和金三胖都有能力制定更加着眼于长远的政策，因为他们对政策短期结果导致的社会负面反应的忧虑要少得多。

As a final note, I am aware that President Moon has praised Trump. I believe this is not much more than lip service. Even most Trump supporters recognize the man is a narcissist, and by saying such things it will encourage Trump to stick through the negotiations and not derail the whole thing. This is especially important after Trump appointed Bolton as National Security advisor, an extreme hardliner who supports striking North Korea. By being a friend to Trump, Moon no doubt hopes he can keep Bolton (and a war in Korea) away.

最后需要注意的一点是，我注意到文在寅总统赞扬了特朗普。我相信这不仅仅是嘴上说说而已。即使是大多数特朗普的支持者也承认，此人是一个自恋者，通过对特朗普说这样的话，会鼓励他坚持谈判，而不是让整个事情偏离轨道。在特朗普任命博尔顿为国家安全顾问后，这一点尤为重要。他是一名支持打击朝鲜的极端强硬派人士。通过成为特朗普的朋友，毫无疑问，文在寅希望自己能把博尔顿（以及一场半岛战争）晾到一边。

In short, NK has never been in such a strong position for negotiations, China's interest in securing peace is incredibly strong and has begun to even result in direct action against NK unless they negotiate peace, it will boost Trump's popularity which will also help China, and the South Korea administration also views peace and cooperation as an incredibly important goal. IMO, never before has a situation where South Korea, North Korea, China, and the US all want roughly the same thing.

简而言之,，朝鲜从未有过眼下这种谈判的强势地位，中国在维护半岛和平中有着十分巨大的利益，大到甚至已经开始采取直接措施反对朝鲜——除非他们开启和平谈判，这将促进特朗普的声望，同时也将助益中国，而且韩国政府也认为和平与合作是一个极其重要的目标。在我看来，从未有过这样的情况：韩国、朝鲜、中国和美国都想要达成基本相同的目标。

As a final final note, I know a similar post was made earlier today, but I feel mine goes far more in depth about the topic and gives more room for good discussion.
Sorry for any typos or mistakes, long post.

作为最后最后的一点，我知道今天早些时候也有类似的半岛和谈的帖子，但我觉得我对这个话题的看法要深入得多，给我们提供了更多的讨论空间。
如有任何拼写错误或其他错误，请谅解，长帖。

[–]SirMrGnome[S] 
Lmao you seriously think China feared a Trump led-US invasion would happen? Even if it did, we would be hit with so many sanctions from across the globe we'd never even have time to load the transport ships before we would have to stop. But enough about this highly fictitious event.
Show me where NK or China were clearly and actually scared by Trump's sabre rattling.

呵呵，你真的认为中国会担心会发生一场由特朗普主导的美国入侵吗？即使真地发生了，我们也会受到来自世界各地的制裁，我们甚至没有时间去装载运输船只，然后我们就不得不终止行动。但是关于这种高度虚构的事件已经听得够多了。
请告诉我，从哪可以看出朝鲜和中国明显得、实实在在得被特朗普的剑拔弩张的样子吓到了。

[–]rpts26 
Trump forced N. Korea to choose a diplomatic path. U.S. military pressure was high enough the North realized that a war was likely if the current trajectory did not change. China and South Korea certainly brought N. Korea to the table but the U.S. certainly played a role.

特朗普迫使朝鲜选择外交途径（解决朝核问题）。美国的军事压力已经足够大，朝鲜意识到如果不改变当前的发展轨迹，就有可能引发战争。中国和韩国当然也是把朝鲜带到谈判桌前的因素，但美国肯定发挥了作用。

[–]iwouldnotdig1  
A week ago, I have no doubt that, if asked, you would have said that trump's action in korea were dangerous and threatening to cause a war. Is that an accurate assessment?
If so, now you are saying that trump's actions are largely irrelevant to the situation in korea and what he is saying doesn't matter. Do you see the problem with that? You predicted that trump's actions were very consequential when you thought they would result in bad outcomes, now that they haven't, you're dismissing them. You're starting from the assumption that trump is bad and twisting the facts to fit into your theory, not starting with the facts and coming up with a theory based on them.
There is only one country in the world that can put pressure on north korea with anything short of a military strike, and that's china. But the US can't pressure china directly, because the chinese never want to be seen as giving in under US pressure in that sort of way. This means that the best way to pressure china is to pressure north korea, basically threatening consequences against korea that china wouldn't like, such as US strikes against korea or more US navy ships sailing around the peninsula. That is the strategy trump appears to have been pursuing, pressuring korea to pressure china indirectly, and it appears to be working out.
the fact that the world has done a complete 180 on your predictions of what trump's actions will lead you ought to cause you to re-appraise your priors, not dig in your heals on the "trump is a buffoon" theory.

我毫不怀疑，一周前你如果被问到，可能会说，特朗普在半岛的行动是危险的，并有可能引发一场战争。这是一个准确的评估吗？
如果是这样的话，现在你说特朗普的行为在很大程度上与朝韩现状无关，而他所说的并不重要。你看出其中的问题了吗？当你认为这些行动会导致糟糕的结果时，你预测特朗普的行动就是至关重要的，而现在它们没有导致恶果，所以你就说特朗普无关紧要。你的出发点是假设特朗普是坏的，并歪曲事实以符合你的理论，而不是以事实为出发点，并提出一个基于事实的理论。
世界上只有一个国家能对朝鲜施加除军事打击以外的压力，那就是中国。但美国无法直接向中国施压，因为中国永远不希望被视为屈服在美国的压力之下。这意味着，向中国施压的最佳方式是向朝鲜施压，基本上就是威胁对抗朝鲜从而造成中国不想看到的后果，比如美国武力打击朝鲜，或者派更多的美国军舰在朝鲜半岛附近巡航。这是特朗普似乎一直在追求的战略，即通过直接施压朝鲜而实现间接施压中国，而且似乎正在奏效。
事实上，全世界已经对你对特朗普的行动会带来什么样的结果的预测做了180度的大转弯，你应该重新评估你的“先知”，而不是在“特朗普是一个小丑”这种理论中挖掘你的治疗方法。

[–]SirMrGnome[S]   
A week ago, I have no doubt that, if asked, you would have said that trump's action in korea were dangerous and threatening to cause a war. Is that an accurate assessment?
No. I've never considered North Korea a genuine threat. Even when everyone was freaking out about nuclear war in korea and the doomsday clock ticking up I figured all that sabre rattling and threat throwing was just a narcissistic feeding his base supporters and ego, and a dictator making sure his image as the proud and sole defender of his nation was maintained. Unless we invade them, which again I expect us to never do even under Trump, they have absolutely no reason to use force.
There is only one country in the world that can put pressure on north korea with anything short of a military strike, and that's china.
I agree completely.
But the US can't pressure china directly, because the chinese never want to be seen as giving in under US pressure in that sort of way.
Another point I agree on.
This means that the best way to pressure china is to pressure north korea
This is where I disagree. China absolutely see North Korea as a vital part of their foreign policy and would retaliate if we ever attacked them, but maintaining friendly relations with a now nuclear state that the rest of the world considers a rouge nation, is incredibly bad. This is why China agreed to the UN sanctions in January which have played a huge part in this. Without Chinese trade North korea will face a true economic disaster. But I already explained why China has gone down this route in the post itself, and it has nothing to do with what Trump has done in Korea.

“我毫不怀疑，一周前你如果被问到，可能会说，特朗普在半岛的行动是危险的，并有可能引发一场战争。这是一个准确的评估吗？”
不。我从来没有把朝鲜当作真正的威胁。即使所有人都被朝韩核战争和末日时钟滴答作响吓到了，我认为，所有那些朝鲜的剑拔弩张和战争威胁都是为了满足他的支持者和自我的自恋，以及为了使毒菜者确保他自己作为国家的骄傲和唯一的捍卫者的形象得以维持。
“世界上只有一个国家能对朝鲜施加除军事打击以外的压力，那就是中国”
我完全赞同。
“但美国无法直接向中国施压，因为中国永远不希望被视为屈服在美国的压力之下”
同样赞同。
“这意味着，向中国施压的最佳方式是向朝鲜施压”
这就是我不同意的地方。中国绝对将朝鲜视为其外交政策的重要组成部分，如果我们攻击朝鲜，中国将会进行报复，但维持与这个世界上其他国家认为是一个流氓国家的有核国家的友好关系，是非常糟糕的。这就是为什么中国在1月份同意联合国对朝制裁的原因，这次制裁在很大程度上（对推动南北和谈）起到了作用。没有中国的贸易支持，朝鲜将面临真正的经济灾难。但我已经在留言里解释了为什么中国会走上这条道路，这与特朗普在半岛的作为没有任何关系。

[–]iwouldnotdig1  
No. I've never considered North Korea a genuine threat. Even when everyone was freaking out about nuclear war in korea and the doomsday clock ticking up I figured all that sabre rattling and threat throwing was just a narcissistic feeding his base supporters and ego, and a dictator making sure his image as the proud and sole defender of his nation was maintained.
Trump's critics were making those accusations, not his supporters, so this theory is completely at odds with reality.
This is where I disagree. China absolutely see North Korea as a vital part of their foreign policy and would retaliate if we ever attacked them, but maintaining friendly relations with a now nuclear state that the rest of the world considers a rogue nation, is incredibly bad. This is why China agreed to the UN sanctions in January which have played a huge part in this. Without Chinese trade North korea will face a true economic disaster.
Yes, and that's exactly why threats to north korea put pressure on China. If the US bombs Korean targets, or sends ships into Korean waters, it weakens china's position in all of east asia. Either they retaliate, in which case they're standing up on behalf of a rogue state no one likes and greatly increase tensions, or more likely, they do nothing, in which case they demonstrate their inability to stand up to the US. China does not want to be put in that position, so by threatening korea, you can inspire the chinese to act. And the best part is, the US doesn't even have to be able to credibly promise to solve the korea problem in a meaningful way. we could blow up that stupid hotel in pyongyang, and it would still put china in a bad spot. the message is clear, "either you deal with the nooks or or we will, and you won't like we deal with them."
ut I already explained why China has gone down this route in the post itself, and it has nothing to do with what Trump has done in Korea.
Your theory flies in the face of decades of chinese attitudes towards north korea. Mine doesn't. Your theory fails to explain why china didn't do this years ago, mine does.

“不。我从来没有把朝鲜当作真正的威胁。即使所有人都被朝韩核战争和末日时钟滴答作响吓到了，我认为，所有那些朝鲜的剑拔弩张和战争威胁都是为了满足他的支持者和自我的自恋，以及为了使毒菜者确保他自己作为国家的骄傲和唯一的捍卫者的形象得以维持。”
是特朗普的批评者在提出这些指控，而不是他的支持者，所以这个理论与现实完全不符。
“这就是我不同意的地方。中国绝对将朝鲜视为其外交政策的重要组成部分，如果我们攻击朝鲜，中国将会进行报复，但维持与这个世界上其他国家认为是一个流氓国家的有核国家的友好关系，是非常糟糕的。这就是为什么中国在1月份同意联合国对朝制裁的原因，这次制裁在很大程度上（对推动南北和谈）起到了作用。没有中国的贸易支持，朝鲜将面临真正的经济灾难。”
是的，这就是为什么对朝鲜的威胁会给中国施加压力。如果美国轰炸朝鲜的目标，或者派遣舰船进入朝鲜水域，将削弱中国在整个东亚的地位。他们要么进行报复——在这种情况下，他们代表的是一个没有人喜欢的流氓国家，并会严重加剧紧张局势；或者更有可能的是，他们什么都不做——在这种情况下，他们会证明自己无力对抗美国。中国不希望被置于这样的境地，所以你可以通过威胁朝鲜，来刺激中国采取行动。最重要的是，美国甚至都无需具备以一种有意义的方式来解决朝鲜问题的能力。我们可以炸毁平壤那间愚蠢的旅馆，但这样做仍然会把中国置于一个不利的位置。（向中国传递的）信息很明确，“要么你们去处理朝核问题，要么我们去，但你不会喜欢我们去处理。”
“但我已经在留言里解释了为什么中国会走上这条道路，这与特朗普在半岛的作为没有任何关系”
你的理论与几十年来中国人对朝鲜的态度背道而驰。我不喜欢。你的理论无法解释为什么中国在几年前没有这样做，而我的解释了。

[–]SirMrGnome[S] 
Trump's critics were making those accusations, not his supporters, so this theory is completely at odds with reality.
The majority of America has an unfavorable view of Trump ya know. We have everything from Neo-Cons, Libertarians, Progressives, deeply religious catholics, literal communists, more typical democrats, and more. So yeah, I'll admit lots of anti-Trump people jumped on the idea that he was going to start WW3 or something, but I wasn't one of them.
Yes, and that's exactly why threats to north korea put pressure on China. If the US bombs Korean targets, or sends ships into Korean waters,
Again, Trump won't attack NK, and US boats in Korean waters is a minor diplomatic insult to china at best.
Your theory flies in the face of decades of chinese attitudes towards north korea. Mine doesn't. Your theory fails to explain why china didn't do this years ago, mine does.
Your theory assumes China-Korea relations haven't changed in the past 20 years. South Korea has become an increasingly important trading partner for China. It was just three years ago China and SK signed a FTA agreement. Four years ago Jinping and the last president of South Korea met and both agreed to work towards a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. Both nations have grown wary of Japan under Shinzo Abe. The Moon administration in particular is clearly quite open to friendly relations with China as shown in one of the articles I linked above.
Meanwhile, North Korea-China relations have soured greatly. Though China greatly benefits from having them as a buffer state, Xi Jinping is clearly an ambitious man whose interests expand far beyond just China and it's neighbors. With Korea now having a fully or almost completed nuclear ICBM program, they are becoming an increasingly more burdensome ally to have. If you've followed geopolitics in east asia over the past few years, China placing sanctions on North Korea isn't surprising at all. Just like when NK tried to buck against China when they officially opened diplomatic contact with SK and it failed spectacularly, China is once again forcing NK to bow to China's interests.

“是特朗普的批评者在提出这些指控，而不是他的支持者，所以这个理论与现实完全不符”
你知道的，大多数美国人对特朗普的看法都不乐观。我们拥有各种身份的人群，从新保守派、自由主义者、进步主义者、笃信宗教的天主教徒、真正的TG主义者、更典型的民主党人，等等。所以，是的，我承认很多反对特朗普的人都认为他将会开启三战，但我不是他们中的一员。
“是的，这就是为什么对朝鲜的威胁会给中国施加压力。如果美国轰炸朝鲜的目标，或者派遣舰船进入朝鲜水域，”
再强调一次，特朗普不会攻击朝鲜，而美国在朝鲜水域的舰船充其量只能算对中国的一种轻微的外交侮辱。
“你的理论与几十年来中国人对朝鲜的态度背道而驰。我不喜欢。你的理论无法解释为什么中国在几年前没有这样做，而我的解释了”
你的理论假设，在过去的20年里，中韩关系没有发生改变。（实际上）韩国已经成为中国日益重要的贸易伙伴。就在三年前，中国和韩国签署了一项自由贸易协定。四年前，中国主席和韩国前一任总统会面，双方都同意致力于实现朝鲜半岛无核化。两国都对安倍晋三领导下的日本提高了警惕。尤其是文在寅政府，显然对与中国的友好关系非常欢迎，正如我在上面提到的一篇文章中所展示的那样。
与此同时，朝鲜与中国的关系已经严重恶化。尽管中国从将朝鲜作为一个缓冲国中获益匪浅，但中国显然抱负巨大，它的兴趣远远超出了自身和它的邻国。随着朝鲜现在拥有一套已完成的，或几乎完成的核洲际弹道导弹计划，他们正成为一个越来越麻烦的盟友。如果你在过去的几年里一直关注东亚的地缘政治，那么会发现中国对朝鲜的制裁一点也不奇怪。就像当初中国正式公开与韩国建交时，朝鲜也试图对抗中国，这一次，中国再次迫使朝鲜向中国的利益低头。

[–]Reven3111
Trump put considerable pressure on China to end this problem. They do have the power and the finally decided to use it to stop a dangerous situation from getting far worse and deteriorating relations with the US and China even further.

特朗普对中国施加了相当大的压力，要求其解决朝核问题。他们确实有这个能力，并且最终决定用它来阻止危险的局势变得更加糟糕，并进一步恶化美国与中国的关系。