特朗普为何会突然为保住中国的工作岗位而忧心：6种分析 [美国媒体]

Why Trump Is Suddenly Worried About SavingJobs in China: 6 Theories

特朗普为何会突然为保住中国的工作岗位而忧心：6种分析






In recent months President Trump launcheda trade war with China, a nation he’s accused, in vivid terms, of stealingAmerican jobs, wealth, and intellectual property. “We can’t continue to allowChina to rape our country, and that’s what they’re doing,” he said duringone campaign rally.
Then on Sunday, Trump suddenly became very concerned about protecting Chinese jobs:
President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 13, 2018
Last year the Chinese telecommunications giant, which makes inexpensive smartphones, admitted in U.S. federal court that it violated U.S. sanctions by selling to Iran and North Korea. ZTE agreed to a plea deal involving as much as $1.2 billion in fines, but last month the U.S. Department of Commerce said it didn’t follow through on the agreement, and banned American firms from selling to ZTE for seven years.
The 75,000-employee business was unable to find alternative suppliers and began shutting down its operations last week — but now ZTE might be saved, thanks to Trump. The exact reason for Trump’s abrupt turn around remains a mystery; there are reports suggesting it’s about the midterms, the upcoming negotiations with North Korea, Trump Organization business, or maybe all of the above. Here are the leading theories on why the president developed a soft spot for a sanctions-defying Chinese tech company.

最近几个月，特朗普总统发动了一场与中国的贸易战，他以生动的措辞指责中国偷走了美国的工作岗位、财富和知识产权。“我们不能继续允许中国强X我们的国家，这就是他们正在做的事情，”他在一次竞选集会上说。

“而到了本周日，特朗普突然对保护中国的工作岗位变得非常关心：中国主席和我正在共同努力，为中国的大型通信公司——中兴提供一个快速恢复业务的途径。在中国，有太多的工作岗位流失了。（美国）商务部已接到指示要完成这项工作！”——唐纳德·特朗普（@realdonalddtrump），2018年5月13日

去年，这家制造廉价智能手机的中国电信巨头在美国联邦法院承认，它因为向伊朗和朝鲜出售产品而违反了美国对上述两国的制裁。中兴同意了一项涵盖多达12亿美元罚款的认罪协议，但上个月美国商务部表示，它没有遵守协议，并禁止7年内美国企业向中兴销售组件。

这一拥有75000名员工的企业无法找到替代供应商，并于上周开始停止其运转——但现在，由于特朗普，中兴可能会被拯救。特朗普突然转变的确切原因仍然是个谜；有报道称，这与中期选举、即将到来的与朝鲜的谈判、特朗普集团业务，或者可能同时与上述所有议题有关。以下是关于为什么特朗普总统对违反制裁的中国科技企业网开一面的热门分析：

This Is the Only Way to Get a Trade DealWith China
Trump is looking to strike a trade deal with China and avoid the massivetariffs threatened by both sides. High-level talks have made little progress inrecent weeks, and accordingto the Washington Post Trump recently asked hisadvisers what China wants. He was told that relaxing ZTE’s punishment was a“prerequisite” to substantive discussions with the Chinese.
Chinese officials were furious about thepenalties put on ZTE, which they viewed as excessive, but the Trump administrationhad been resisting their calls to back off. Dennis Wilder, a former Chinaspecialist at the CIA who just met with officials in Beijing, said he was toldthat the Chinese delegation led by Vice-Premier Liu He would not return toWashington for talks without a reprieve for ZTE. Hours after Trump’s tweet itwas confirmed that Liu will meet with top administration officials inWashington later this week.
Sources said Trump doesn’t see easingpenalties on ZTE as a major concession, though it doesn’t set the best examplefor other companies that violate U.S. sanctions.

1、这是与中国达成贸易协议的唯一途径

特朗普寻求与中国达成一项贸易协议，并避免双方都面临巨额关税。最近几周，高层会谈几乎没有取得任何进展。根据《华盛顿邮报》的报道，特朗普最近向他的顾问们询问了中国想要什么。他被告知，放宽对中兴的惩罚是与中方进行实质性讨论的“先决条件”。

中国官员对中兴受到的处罚感到愤怒，他们认为这是过度惩罚，但特朗普政府一直在抵制他们的要求不让步。不久前会见在北京会见了中国官员的中央情报局前中国问题专家韦德宁（Dennis Wilder）说，他被告知，如果不减轻对中兴的处罚，由中国副总理刘鹤率领的中国代表团将不会前往华盛顿进行会谈。在特朗普的推特发布数小时后，刘鹤将于本周晚些时候前往华盛顿会见高级政府官员的信息便得到了证实。

消息人士称，特朗普不认为减轻对中兴的处罚是一个重大让步，尽管这种做法不能为其他违反美国制裁的企业树立最好的典型。

Saving Chinese Jobs Serves Trump’sLarger Goal of Saving U.S. Jobs
ZTE is one of the U.S. telecom company Qualcomm’s biggest customers, so itsshuttering would have negative consequences for Americans. In a tweet on Mondayafternoon, Trump suggested he was actually focused on helping Americancompanies:
ZTE, the largeChinese phone company, buys a big percentage of individual parts from U.S.companies. This is also reflective of the larger trade deal we are negotiatingwith China and my personal relationship with President Xi.
— Donald J. Trump(@realDonaldTrump) May 14, 2018
In exchange for backing off of ZTE, U.S.officials are reportedly pushing Beijing to let Qualcomm’s proposed acquisitionof NXP Semiconductors move forward (they also want China to relax tariffs onU.S. agricultural products, but more on that later). Qualcomm’s effort had beeneffectively blocked by a Chinese antitrust review, which was seen as paybackfor aggressive trade moves by the U.S.
The U.S. investment firm Rangeley Capitalnoticed that Chinese regulators just changed their view of the merger. “All ofa sudden it was a tweet the president put out on ZTE,” Rangeley partner ChrisDeMuth Jr. told the WallStreet Journal. “And then [the Chinese regulator] started up the reviewagain.”

2、保住中国的工作岗位，有助于特朗普实现保住美国工作岗位这一更大的目标。

中兴是美国电信公司高通最大的客户之一，因此它的关闭将对美国人产生负面影响。周一下午，特朗普在推特上表示，他实际上聚焦于帮助美国公司：

“中国大型通信企业中兴通讯从美国企业购买了很大比例的零部件。这也反映出我们正在与中国谈判的更大的贸易协议，以及我与中国主席的个人关系。”
——唐纳德·特朗普（@realdonalddtrump），2018年5月14日

据报道，作为对放宽中兴处罚的交换，美国官员正敦促中国政府允许高通收购NXP半导体公司（他们也希望中国放宽对美国农产品的关税，但这是下一步的谈判目标）。中国的反垄断审查严重阻碍了高通的努力。中国的反垄断审查被认为是对美国激进的贸易举措的报复。

美国投资公司朗吉利资本（RangeleyCapital）注意到，中国监管机构刚刚改变了他们对并购的看法。“总统突然之间发布了一条关于中兴的推文，”朗吉利合伙人克里斯·德姆斯（Chris DeMuth Jr.）在接受《华尔街日报》采访时表示，“紧接着，（中国监管机构）便重新启动了审查。”

The Trump Administration’s EconomicNationalists Are Losing
It appears that Trump’s whims are dictating U.S.-China trade policy, as theWhite House seemed caught off guard by his tweets and struggled to put out acoherent message. The Post summed up the mixed messages fromCommerce Secretary Wilbur Ross:
After Trump’s Sunday tweet, White Houseofficials spent much of the next 24 hours attempting to walk back hisstatement, saying ZTE’s fate would ultimately be left up to a review by Ross.And Monday afternoon, Ross insisted in a speech at the National Press Club thatZTE would not be a factor in the trade talks, saying, “Our position has beenthat that’s an enforcement action separate from trade.”
Just three hours later, Trump tweetedagain, contradicting Ross’s statement that the issues would be kept apart.
The New York Times suggests thatTrump’s abrupt shift is a sign that he’s once again caught between hisadministration’s “America First” adherents and his more mainstream advisers —and now the economic nationalists are losing out to the squares worried aboutwhat a massive trade war will do to the U.S. economy.
The nationalists took their shot when theyhanded the Chinese a long list of extreme demands during a trip to Beijing lastmonth. Unsurprisingly, the Chinese were not receptive, and now Trump appears tobe embracing Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s efforts to quickly resolvetrade tensions before a trade war ravages the economy.

3、特朗普政府里的经济民族主义者正在失势

看起来特朗普的妄想决定了美中的贸易政策，因为白宫似乎被他的推文搞得措手不及，并费力地想要发出一系列有连贯性的信息。这篇文章摘录总结了商务部长威尔伯·罗斯（Wilbur Ross）发出的混乱信息：

在特朗普周日发布推文之后，白宫官员在接下来的24小时里大部分时间都在努力要收回他的声明，称中兴的命运最终将取决于罗斯（Ross）（译注：美国商务部长）的审查。周一下午，罗斯在国家新闻俱乐部发表讲话时坚称，中兴不会成为贸易谈判的一个要素，他说，“我们的立场是，对中兴的惩罚是一种独立于贸易之外的执法行为。”

就在3个小时后，特朗普再次发了一条推文，反驳了罗斯关于上述两个议题将被切割的说法。

《纽约时报》表明，特朗普的突然转变，表明他再次进退维谷于他的政府中的“美国优先”支持者和他的更主流的顾问之间——而当前，经济民族主义者正在输给那些担心大规模贸易战会对美国经济造成何种影响的“异教徒”。

上个月民族主义者们采取了行动，他们在北京访问期间向中国递交了一长串的极端要求。毫不意外地，中国没有接受，而现在，特朗普似乎在拥抱财政部长史蒂芬·姆钦做出的，在一场贸易战严重破坏经济之前，迅速解决贸易紧张局势的努力。

Trump Is Thinking About OtherInternational Problems
Another possible reason for Trump’s shift: he just realized he needs to resolveeconomic tensions with China before he meets with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un onJune 12. As North Korea’s closest ally and biggest trading partner, China willlikely play a big role in any deal to end Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons program.Trump has repeatedly said thathe would cut Beijing some slack on trade if they help with North Korea.

4、特朗普在考虑其他国际问题

特朗普转变的另一个可能原因在于：他刚刚意识到，在6月12日与朝鲜的金正恩会面之前，他需要解决与中国的经济紧张关系。作为朝鲜最亲密的盟友和最大的贸易伙伴，中国很可能在所有结束朝鲜核武器计划的协议中发挥重要作用。特朗普曾多次表示，如果北京帮助朝鲜，那他将减少与北京方面的贸易。

Trump Is Thinking About DomesticProblems
Trump sabotaging the economy right before the midterm elections has alwayssounded like a good way to ensure that Republicans suffer massive losses inNovember. In practice Trump’s trade dispute with China has already irritated akey Republican constituency: farmers.
In April China retaliated against Trump’snew tariffs by announcing its own tariffs on some U.S. agriculturalcommodities. Last month Trump floated the idea of solving the problemwith newsubsidy payments to farmers, but that idea was quickly shot down byfellow Republican lawmakers.
Now, accordingto the Journal, the Trump administration is worried thatthe backlash from farmers could further endanger Republican efforts to hold onto the House and Senate in the midterms. China has reportedly suggested it willhold off on the agricultural tariffs if the U.S. goes easy on ZTE.

5、特朗普在考虑国内问题

特朗普在中期选举前破坏经济，这种做法一直以来听起来像是确保共和党在11月遭受巨额损失的好办法。实际上，特朗普与中国的贸易争端已经惹恼了一个关键的共和党选民群体：农民。

今年4月，中国对特朗普的新关税进行了报复，宣布对部分美国农产品征收关税。上个月，特朗普提出了用新的补贴来解决这个问题的想法，但这一想法很快遭到了共和党议员的否决。

现在，据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普政府担心，来自农民的强烈反对可能会进一步危及共和党在中期选举中保住众议院和参议院的努力。据报道，如果美国对中兴采取宽松政策，中国将暂缓征收农业关税。

Trump Is Thinking About How He CanEnrich Himself
About 72hours before Trump developed a friendlier attitude toward Beijing, theChinese government agreed to pump $500 million into an Indonesian theme parkthat will benefit the Trump Organization — and thus the president himself,since he refused to divest from his company when he took office.
The Chinese government just extended a loanto the state-owned construction firm Metallurgical Corporation of China. Thatcompany inked a deal with the Indonesian firm MNC Land last week to build atheme park outside Jakarta that will feature several Trump-branded properties.Chinese companies will not be directly financing the Trump properties, but thetheme park is a key part of the project. AFP reported lastweek:
… marketing materials for MNC Lido Cityrefer to the theme park and Trump properties as flagship elements of thedevelopment, and corporate filings and internal documents show the TrumpOrganisation and the president’s sons have been directly involved in variousstages of its planning.
“Even if this deal is completely andentirely above board, it simply furthers the perception of impropriety”surrounding Trump’s businesses, Christopher Balding, an economics professor atShenzhen’s HSBC Business School, told AFP.“Especially with the potential trade war, this is not a good look … Criticswill be entirely right to demand answers.”
That may be true, but it doesn’t look likethey’re going to get them. When asked to explain howthis doesn’t violate the Constitution’s emoluments clause, Deputy PressSecretary Raj Shah referred questions to the Trump Organization — though asNoah Bierman of the Los Angeles Times pointed out, the companycan’t speak on behalf of the president.
“You’re asking about a privateorganization’s dealings that may have to do with a foreign government. It’s notsomething I can speak to,” Shah said, moving on to the next question.

6、特朗普在考虑如何让自己捞到好处

大约在特朗普对北京采取更友好的态度72小时之前，中国政府同意了向印尼主题公园注资5亿美元，这将使特朗普集团受益——也就是总统本人，因为他在上任时拒绝与自己的企业切割。

中国政府刚刚向中国国有建筑企业中冶集团提供了贷款。上周，该企业与印尼企业MNC Land签署了一项协议，将在雅加达郊外建造一个主题公园，该主题公园主要建筑为数个特朗普品牌的不动产。中国企业不会直接为特朗普的地产融资，但主题公园是该项目的关键部分。据法新社上周报道：

“……MNC Lido City的营销材料提及主题公园和特朗普的房产将作为旗舰发展元素，企业档案和内部文件显示，特朗普集团和总统的儿子们直接参与了该计划的不同阶段。”

“即使这笔交易完全且整个都是正大光明的，它也加深了人们对特朗普的业务存在不当行为的看法，”深圳汇丰商学院经济学教授克里斯托弗•伯丁（Christopher Balding）对法新社表示。“特别是在潜在的贸易战中，这不是一个好的形象……批评人士完全有权要求真相。”

也许的确如此，但看起来他们不会得到真相。当被要求解释为何上述行为并没有违反宪法的“酬金条款”时，副新闻秘书拉吉·沙阿（Raj Shah）将问题提交给了特朗普集团——尽管正如《洛杉矶时报》的诺亚·比尔曼（Noah Bierman）指出的那样，该企业并不能代表总统发言。

“你问的是一个可能与外国政府有关的私人集团的交易。我对此没有发言权”沙阿说，之后他继续回答下一个问题。