外媒：债务炸弹使中国经济正在走向崩溃吗？ [美国媒体]

-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------



On Friday China announced its economy had expanded at a 6.7 percent rate in the first quarter of 2016. While this is the slowest growth since the depths of the great recession, it conveniently remains within the government’s official target of 6.5-7.0 percent. Unlike all developed countries, there will be no revisions to this figure in the coming months or quarters.

在本周五，中国宣布它在2016年第一个季度的GDP增长为6.7%。这是自大衰退以来的最低涨幅，恰好被控制在政府官员的6.5%到7%的目标之间。与所有发达国家不同的是，在随后的季度或月份中这个数字不会被修订。

There were two factors that kept Beijing’s growth within its target range: Easy money and the property market. The level of “total social financing,” or borrowing, rose 16 percent in March from a year ago.

北京之所以实现了自己的经济增长目标主要有两个因素：低息贷款和房地产市场。3月份“总的社会融资”或者说借款比去年同期增加了16%。

This was fueled by the bond issuance by local governments as part of its bailout program and investment in ‘fixed asset investment’ which is largely composed of infrastructure and factories.

这主要由地方政府的债券发行驱使的，以对主要由基建和工厂构成的“固定资产投资项目”进行救助和投资。

-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

With total debt approaching 300 percent of GDP and massive overcapacity in many industries such as coal, cement, chemicals and refining, this development only exacerbates China’s serious structural problems.

随着债务攀升到GDP的300%，以及在诸如煤矿，水泥，化学制品与提炼等产业的产能过剩，这些发展只不过使中国严重的结构性问题更加恶化了。

The property market witnessed a strong recovery in China’s largest cities, causing property investment to rise at its fastest pace in a year. Outside the largest four cities, however, where 95 percent of home sales occurred, the housing sector remains sluggish. With an estimated 70 million inventory of unsold homes, China’s housing construction rebound does nothing to begin resolving this problem.

地产市场在中国的大城市恢复神速，使得房地产投资前所未有地高涨。然而，在最大的四个城市之外，也就是占据了全国房产的95%的销量的地方，地产行业却一蹶不振。在差不多有7千万房子无人问津的情况下，中国没有出台任何措施来使得住宅行业回暖。

-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

If this pattern sounds eerily familiar, it should. Debt issuance, investment in factories and the property market have been consistently the engines for growth since the economic crisis and beyond. China’s economic plan to move toward a more market-oriented policy, such as improving property rights, financial sector liberalization and Hukou reform (giving the massive migrant work force basic rights in urban areas) have been slow in development or nonexistent.

如果这种情况听上去非常熟悉的话，它确实早就出现过。债券发行，地产与工厂投资一直就是经济危机后的经济增长发动引擎。中国正计划推出一个更加以市场为导向的政策，比如巩固财产权，放宽对金融行业的限制还有户口改革（给大批离乡的工人在大城市的基本权利），但这些政策的推行都十分缓慢，或压根不存在。

How long can this trend last? As the well-known economist Herb Stein once said, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

这股劲头还能持续多久呢？正如一位知名的经济学家赫布斯坦因所说：“如果一件事不能永久持续的话，它终将停止。”


-------------译者：cpcchina-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

Susumu_Araki • 3 hours ago
Inflation can be a solution for China's debt problem. Then, Renminbi's sharp depreciation will be inevitable.
CCP should be prepared for riots, and all assets should be converted to USD or Euro, and hide in Swiss bank accounts. CCP's high ranking officials should consult Mossack Fonseca.

 通货膨胀确实可以解决中国的债务问题。但是这样一来，人民币的贬值就无可避免了。
中共应该准备好应对暴动，所有资产都换成美元或欧元，并且赶紧藏到瑞士的银行账户里。中共的高级官员应该多咨询咨询Mossack Fonseca。

Missile Susumu_Araki     • 2 hours ago
Mossack Fonseca has many offices in HK and China. Who do you think they are selling to?

Missile 回复 Susumu_Araki  莫赛克。冯萨卡在香港和大陆有很多办公室。你以为他们是在做谁的生意啊？

-------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

Vasya Pypkin • 3 hours ago
I shall be quite frank, but I do not believe neither Chinese nor American numbers. Chinese numbers are under CPC control and Americans are great creative accounting fraud cooks.

坦白说我不相信中国或者美国所发布的数据。中国的数据是受中共控制的，而美国的数据是假账欺诈篡改。
 
Both USA and China are deep in debt and China is in debt quite early in her development.

 美国和中国都债务缠身，就发展状况来说，中国过早地被债务问题所困扰。
 
Frank Blangeard  Vasya Pypkin • 3 hours ago
Debt early in development is expected. Heavy debt in a fully developed country is a bigger problem because it is harder to grow out of.
 
债务在发展的早期是预期之中的。对于发达国家来说，沉重的债务负担是一个更严重的问题，因为对于发达国家来说更难通过增长消除。
 
Missile  Frank Blangeard • 3 hours ago
If you look at Chinese numbers, they're impossible to grow out of, yet they keep lending.
 
如果你看到中国的数据，他们根本不可能摆脱这些债务，然而他们仍在借钱。
 
Frank Blangeard  Missile • 2 hours ago
Currently China is growing at a rate three times as fast as the United States. If China can't grow out of its debt then what does that say about the U.S. debt?

现在中国经济正以美国的三倍速度增长。如果中国不能摆脱她的债务，那么美国的债务又怎么样呢？

-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Missile  Frank Blangeard • 2 hours ago
China is not growing at the rate they claim.

中国提供的数据不可信。

Frank Blangeard  Missile • 43 minutes ago
And the United States is probably not growing at the rate we claim. Both countries manipulate figures.

美国的增长数据可能没有政府所说的那么高。两国都在操纵货币。

Steve Smith  Missile • 2 hours ago
So what rate are they growing by? You seem to have inside information.

那他们的增长数据是多少？你貌似有内部消息啊。

Missile  Vasya Pypkin • 3 hours ago
What about Russian numbers? They're like Chinese numbers, fiction.

俄罗斯的数据？和中国数据一样都是假的。
 
 -------------译者：laoaoe-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

P.S: how is the ruble doing today, LMFAO????

 p.s：卢布今天怎么样，lamfao？
 
Frank Blangeard  Slim Shady • 3 hours ago
The ruble is down by 0.07% today against the US dollar.

卢布今天对美元下降了0.07% 
 
Slim Shady  Frank Blangeard • 3 hours ago
so that makes it $1=66.274 rubles, da comrade??? how about oil....ahhh skrew all that.....how is your cancer progressing???
 
所以这让一美元=66.274卢布，是吗，同志？？？原油怎么样。。。啊，全搞砸了...你的癌症怎么样了？
 
Frank Blangeard  Slim Shady • 2 hours ago
What happens when you throw a boomerang Shady. It comes back to you.

 当你投出去一个回旋镖会发生什么 shady。它会飞回你这里。
 
Inn0centSinner • 8 hours ago
800 million Chinese live on less than $5 dollars a day. The Party's Bank builds vacant homes that will probably crumble before 800 million Chinese can afford to buy them.

有8亿中国人生活在日均5美元的水平线下。 dang的银行正在建设空房子，而这些房子可能在这8亿人能够买得起它之前就垮掉了。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

Springfire  Inn0centSinner • 7 hours ago
Yes, according to Taiwanese media, most mainlanders can't afford to eat an egg for breakfast ;-) though they can afford to shop in Paris.

 是啊，照湾湾媒体说法，大部分大陆人都吃不起鸡蛋，尽管他们有钱去巴黎购物。
 
pro veritate  Springfire • 7 hours ago
Yeah, right, the only people who can afford to shop in Paris are the members of the CCP elites and their families. Just 100 km away from Beijing, many still subsist on less than $100 a month.

 啊，对，唯一有钱在巴黎大买特买的是阿共的精英和他们的家族。就在离北京100公里远的地方，还有很多人每个月要靠不到100美元维持生计。
 
Inn0centSinner  pro veritate • 7 hours ago
It's clear that Springfire's math skill wasn't calculated as part of the "average" Chinese math and science test scores to show how Chinese are supposedly smarter than everyone else. To him, a million or two Chinese out of 1.4 billion Chinese being able to shop in Paris is considered to be "most mainlanders".

虽然中国人的数学和科学考试分数会让人觉得中国人应该比其他人聪明，可是楼上上的数学能力真是糟糕。在他看来，14亿人中有一两百万人有能力在巴黎购物就认为他们是“大部分大陆人”。

-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------

 Springfire  pro veritate • 7 hours ago
120 millions Chinese visit various places in the world. I think what you said is bullshit.
 
 1.2亿中国人在世界各处旅游。我觉得你在胡说八道。

Inn0centSinner  Springfire • 7 hours ago
120 million/1.4 billion = 8% of the Chinese population. Obviously not "most mainlanders". My first post still stands.

 1.2亿/14亿=8%中国人口。显然不是“大部分大陆人”。我上面发表的那个评论依然站得住脚。

Ferdy Marcos  Springfire • 5 hours ago
Are you one of those so called 120 million chinese ?

 你是所谓的1.2亿中国人之一么？
 
Inn0centSinner  Springfire • 7 hours ago
I've never read any Taiwanese media that said most mainlanders can't afford to eat an egg. 800 million Chinese can afford to shop in Paris? Wow! Did this information come from Chinese media? And here I'm thinking 800 million Chinese being able to jump the Chinese Great Firewall was difficult enough.

我从未见到任何台湾媒体说大部分大陆人吃不起茶叶蛋。8亿中国人有能力去巴黎购物？哇！这信息来自中国媒体吧。我看有8亿中国人能翻过防火墙就已经够艰难了。

​-------------译者：maggicqueen99-审核者：惊呆小伙伴------------
 
Missile  Springfire • 2 hours ago
It's less than 1 percent of Chinese that can actually shop in Paris. The other tourists spend their life savings just to visit.

其实只有不到1%的中国人能在巴黎大肆采购。其他游客只是花了他们一辈子的积蓄来走马观花。
 
thesurvivor • 3 hours ago
Unfortunately most publication on this subject appear to be politically motivated rather than based on scientific reasoning. William T. Wilson, the author of this article, is working for the Heritage Foundation that carries the neocon political agenda.

不幸的是，就这个话题而言，大部分媒体都是政治驱动而非基于科学推理。本文作者威廉.T.威尔逊就是为代表极端保守势力的传统基金会工作的。
 
tteng • 8 hours ago
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics...
The above data is a year old, but sufficient for a perspective compare.
In addition, Japan's total debt is about 450% of its GDP.
While China's number is up there along with the developed world, but it looks par course among the big economies.

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics...
上面链接里的数据已经是一年前的了，但也足以从一个视角进行比较。
此外，日本的总负债达到了其GDP的450%。
中国的负债率也随着发达世界的数据增长而增长，不过在经济实体的大家伙里，这数据看起来也是意料之中的。