外媒：中国很可能衰落 [美国媒体]

From politics to the economy to the environment, the end may be near.

从政治、经济、环境各方面，中国可能快要完了。



Peter Navarro 
May 7, 2016

In July of 2001, Gordon Chang predicted an inevitable meltdown of the Chinese Communist Party in his best-selling book The Coming Collapse of China. Since then, China’s economy has increased by more than eightfold, to surpass even the United States on a purchasing parity power basis. Oops?

2001年7月，Gordon Chang在他的畅销书《中国崩溃》中预言中国将不可避免的衰落。但是从那之后，中国的经济翻了8倍，在购买力平价的基础上甚至超过了美国。唉哟？

In Chang’s defense, he could not have anticipated the colossal blunder of President Bill Clinton and a Republican Congress in paving China’s ruthlessly mercantilist way into the World Trade Organization just five months after his book was published. That mother of all unfair trade deals—a well-deserved target of both the Sanders and Trump presidential campaigns—kept China’s Great Walls of Protectionism largely intact. However, it also opened U.S. markets to a flood of illegally subsidized Chinese imports, and catalyzed the offshoring of millions of American manufacturing jobs.

这儿要为Chang说句话，他不可能预见到，就在他的书出版之后刚过了5个月，克林顿和国会就犯了一个弥天大错，让极端重商主义的中国加入世贸组织。这个庇护不公平贸易的组织——现在也是桑德斯和川普的总统竞选中的靶子——使得中国的贸易保护壁垒基本上完好。但是，它却打开了美国的市场，让一大波得到非法补贴的中国商品进入，并且引起上百万的美国制造业工作机会流失到海外。

Since China’s entry into the WTO in 2001, the center of the world’s manufacturing base has seismically shifted as the People’s Republic of Unfair Trade Practices has used a dizzying array of illegal export subsidies, currency manipulation, intellectual-property theft, sweatshop labor and pollution havens to seize market share from both Europe and North America. To date, more than seventy thousand American factories have closed, over twenty million Americans have been put out of work and Chinese Communist Party leaders have laughed at Gordon Chang—all the way to their Swiss, Panamanian and Caymanian bank accounts.

自从中国在2001年入世之后，全球制造业基地的中心发生了大转移，因为中国不公正贸易使用了非法出口补贴、汇率操纵、窃取知识产权、血汗工厂和环境污染的一系列手段从欧洲和北美抢夺市场份额。到现在，已有7万多家美国工厂倒闭，超过2000万美国人失业

China’s mercantilist WTO windfall notwithstanding, there are nonetheless growing signs that the collapse of China as Gordon Chang once predicted, and David Shambaugh is now intimating, may soon be at hand. As Exhibit A of the signs of China’s troubles I offer, in the remainder of this missive, an email correspondence directly from the Chinese mainland. It’s from an American citizen living and working with his Chinese wife and son in the PRC.

尽管中国入世捡了个大便宜，但是有越来越多的迹象显示中国就如同Gordon Chang曾预测的那样将会崩溃，David Shambaugh现在估计，可能崩溃会来的很快。作为我提供的中国正陷入困境的重要证据，在这篇文章中，一封直接来自于中国大陆的邮件。来自于一名美国公民，他目前与他的中国太太和孩子居住于中国。

“From what I can see, and my Chinese wife can see, China will probably soon implode. Just what the catalyst will be is uncertain. Just before that time, or as a result of that implosion, the [Communist Party] will probably try to get the population to focus outside the country, probably through conflicts in the South China Sea or Taiwan. 

“就我所看到的，还有我的中国太太看到的，中国很可能马上会衰落。只是不确定衰落的催化剂会是什么。在衰落之前，或者作为衰落的结果，中国很可能会试图将公众的注意力转向国外，可能通过南海或者台湾冲突转移视线。

For more than two decades, I have been telling people that the first thing China would do before trying to take Taiwan would be to take the Spratly Islands. If the world simply ignored that, then Taiwan would be next. 

20多年来，我一直跟别人说，中国在占领台湾之前会先拿下南沙群岛。如果世界各国对此视而不见，那台湾就是下一个目标。

Hong Kong is a bitter, poison pill left by Britain for China. There will be no peaceful resolution of that problem. 

香港是英国留给中国的一颗苦涩的毒丸。没有解决这个问题的和平的方法。

The biggest problems in China right now are poisoned food, water, and air. Nobody trusts anybody, which is the reason why there is huge capital flight out of the country. 

中国现在最大的问题是有毒的食品、水和空气。人们互不信任，这就是为什么有这么大量的资本外流。

China has a national debt in excess of $28 trillion. But anybody knowing anything about Chinese accounting practices knows that number is probably just a very conservative number. Add some of the data and stuff Caixin [an online newspaper] is telling us about in terms of city and provincial accounting practices, and the numbers are horrible.

中国的国家债务超过了28万亿美元。但是对中国的会计处理有任何了解的人都知道这个数字很可能还只是一个保守数字。算一算财新网关于城市和省级会计处理的数据和资料，这个数字是极其可怕的。

China wants its currency to become an international currency, but nobody knows its value. The only effective taxation going on here in China is [protectionist] for imports. The taxation system of businesses and income tax is completely broken and non-functional. There is no transparency in the financial system here. That is quite different from that of the Euro or the dollar. The fact is, the government is printing money like crazy here. 

中国想要人民币成为国际货币，但是没有人知道人民币值多少钱。在中国唯一有效的税务体制是[保护主义的]进口关税。企业和个人所得税税务体系完全是瘫痪的，不起作用。中国的金融体系也没有透明度可言。这一点和欧元或者美元非常不同。事实上，中国政府正发了疯一样的印钱。

People are buying houses around here, but nobody is living in them. They don't trust potential renters. Homes are unaffordable for most people unless they use corruption to get the money needed. People have been investing in houses only because that is the only relatively secure form of asset management. Yet home purchases are at best leases since the government can come in at any time and requisition the land for other purposes. 

人们买房子，但是没有人住在里面。他们不相信租客。大多数人根本买不起房子，除非他们受贿来钱。人们投资房子，只是因为那是唯一相对来说保险的资产。但是买房其实也只是租赁，因为政府随时可以插进来，用另一个理由把土地收回去。

Construction quality of housing here is horrible. If [province name withheld] had a big quake, the dead would be in the millions. China would almost immediately collapse.

房屋建筑质量非常糟糕。如果[此处删除省份名称]有一个大地震，死者会达上百万人。中国将会立刻崩溃。

The education system wherein I work is horrible. People in the West look at high math and science scores, but they don't realize that most of the students, like my son, cannot apply what they learn to similar math or science problems.

我工作所在的教育系统也很糟糕。在西方人民通常会看高数和科学的成绩，但是他们不知道大多数中国学生，包括我儿子，不能把他们所学的应用到简单的数学和科学问题上。

Students are completely unable and unwilling to ask questions. Professors and instructors don't have offices, let alone office hours, so questions on content the students don't understand are never answered. Of course, if a student fails a course, the teacher loses face, so every student passes.

学生根本不能也不愿意提问。教授和教员没有办公室，更不用说办公时间了，所以学生们不理解的问题永远不会被回答。当然，如果学生挂科了，老师会没面子，所以所有的学生都能及格。

If the university has a graduation rate at the end of four years of less than 97%, the university president loses face. Add on top of that the fact that around 2000, there were about 1 million college graduates. Compared to now, with over 7 million graduates, one has to ask: Where did they get all the qualified teachers? 

如果一家大学四年后的毕业率低于97%，校长就会丢面子。一个事实是，2000年的时候，中国有将近100万大学毕业生。相比现在超过700万大学毕业生，问题就来了：他们到哪里去找这么多够格的教师？

My wife teaches in a public elementary school. The CPC is putting pressure on everybody to conform. Fun, considering the fact that the school would collapse overnight if its corruption were rooted out.

我太太在一家公立小学工作。中国要求每个人都规矩本分。有意思，考虑到事实上，如果这家小学彻底根除腐败了，学校本身就会一夜之间分崩离析。 

Real inflation in China is considerably higher than what the government figures reveal. For example, my wife reports that nearly all the food here in this Tier 2 city has doubled in price over the past three years. 

中国的真实通胀率比政府公布的数据高的多。例如，我太太说在这个二线城市里，几乎所有的食品价格都是三年前的两倍。

While food prices typically go up about two weeks before Chinese New Year, they also normally go back down to pre-holiday prices. This year, food prices went up about 20% and have not gone back down.

一般来说，在中国春节期间，食品价格会上涨，之后还会回落到节前的价格。今年，食品价格上涨了约20%，而且没有回落。 

My wife reports that middlemen in the food chain are mostly responsible for the food price increases. The farmers have not increased their prices because many prices are set by local government. However, because the middlemen have increased prices, demand for certain types of fresh foods has gone down. That means that while people in the cities are not buying because of increased food prices, the farmers have food rotting, unable to sell it. 

我太太说食品链中的中间商应该对价格上涨负主要责任。农民没有提价，因为很多价格是当地政府定的。但是，由于中间商的加价，对于某些生鲜食品的需求下降了。这意味着一方面城市居民由于食品价格上涨而停止购买，一方面农民卖不出去，这些作物只能烂在地里。

I went to a farm not too long ago. What struck me was that in the apple orchards, as well as in the surrounding fields, even though the food was at that time being harvested, there were no bugs. I never saw that problem in the States, since there are mandated pesticide non-application times before harvest.

我在不久前去过农村。让我感到吃惊的是苹果园和周围的菜地，尽管苹果当时已经成熟了，但是一个虫子都没有。我从来没有在美国看到过这种情况，因为在美国，果物成熟之前有一段禁止使用农药的时期。

In most American markets, there will still be some food sold with insect marks on it. Most Americans don't realize what that really means. It means the pesticides are nearly, if not completely, gone from that food [because, unlike in China, they can’t be used during harvest time]. 

在大多数美国的市场上，还是有一些有虫蚀过的蔬果出售。多数美国人没有意识到这说明了什么。这说明该蔬果上基本，如果不是完全，已经没有农药了。[因为, 不像在中国, 在收获季节是不能喷洒农药的]. 

I have about 300 papers from my composition students about their lives to grade, many of which confirm some of the things I said above. 

我有大约300篇学生作文，描写他们的生活，很多与我上面说的一致。

Have a great day.”

祝愉快。”

Have a great day indeed!

是的，祝愉快！


Jack   a day ago  
China's most serious problem is total absence of checks and balances, and accountability. It is like building the fastest bullet train without brakes. There is nothing more dangerous than absolute power and how much damages it inflicted on the respective nations and people that you see in Cuba (Fidel Castro), Burma (then under U Ne Win), North Korea, Iraq (then under Saddam Hussein) and not forgetting Germany's ill-beloved Hitler in different stages of History. The problems are copious that commentators can add to reply when there are no checks and balances.

中国最大的问题是完全没有权力的制衡，也没有追责制度。这就像造一部最快的子弹列车，但是没有装刹车。没有什么比极权更危险，极权能给各个国家及其人民带来多大的损害，看看古巴（卡斯特罗）、缅甸（当时处于吴奈温统治下）、北朝鲜、伊拉克（当时处于萨达姆统治下），还有也别忘了德国的希特勒。问题是一大堆，各位可以在下面回复缺乏制衡的情况。

Michael Nunez   2 days ago  
Great Article , Cracks in the Great China Falsehood are becoming more apparent each passing Day . The Smoke and Mirror Show by the CCP is coming to it's Conclusion , Let's all hope the Good Chinese Do Not have to Suffer another " Great Leap Forward or go Through another Cultural Revolution " . The World has seen enough Slaughter in China Today ..... .

好文，中国的假面上的裂缝每天都更明显了。中国玩弄的障眼法要完蛋了，让我们希望中国人不要再经历另一次“大跃进”或者另一次“文革”。世界已经看了够多中国的屠戮了。。。。

Bobserver   2 days ago  
A couple of things. If Peter Navarro, a noted hawk on China, thinks the country is going to collapse then he should ease up on the China as threat hysteria.
Secondly, if his so-called friend is that pessimistic about China then why stay the last 20 years in China and why hasn't he and his family left the "sinking ship" yet?

两件事。如果Peter Navarro这个出名的对中国立场强硬的鹰派，认为中国要崩溃了，那他应该不会再紧抓着中国威胁论。
第二，如果他那个所谓的朋友对中国的前景如此悲观，为什么要在中国待20年，为什么他和他的家人不离开这条“正在下沉的船”？

Bankotsu   2 days ago  
I'm tired of garbage lazy red necks bums like Navarro, people with no clue whatsoever about China, never step foot in China and shamelessly selling anti China propaganda for a living.
These are the good for nothings that I despise.

我真受够了Navarro这种垃圾，根本不了解中国，从来没去过中国，就无耻的贩卖反中国口号来谋生。鄙视这种一无是处的垃圾。

TDog   2 days ago  
Pegging all of one's hopes on a single e-mail, eh?
I believe we have found yet another prime example of "grasping at straws."

把所有希望都寄托在一封邮件上？我相信我们发现了“抓紧救命稻草”的又一个重要例子。

Frankie 9.8349° N 118.7384° E > TDog   2 days ago  
To be fair, Peter did qualify his missive by stating, "I will let you decide whether the views of this observer (name withheld to keep him out of a Chinese prison or shallow grave) is an accurate one or overly pessimistic." Doesn't sound like pegging one's hopes on a single e-mail to me. Acceptance simply depends on a particular reader's choice.

公平的说，Peter说，“请自己决定这名观察者的观点是否准确，还是过于悲观了。”听起来并不是把希望都寄托在一封邮件上。接不接受他的观点是各个读者的选择。

And by going to the e-mail itself, let me dwell on the more salient points which can be easily proven or disproved.

关于邮件本身，让我们看看容易证实或证伪的几点。

1. The biggest problems in China right now are poisoned food, water, and air. True or false?

1. 中国现在最大的问题是有毒的食品、水和空气。真或假？

2. China has a national debt in excess of $28 trillion. But anybody knowing anything about Chinese accounting practices knows that number is probably just a very conservative number. True or false? In fact, statistics show that borrowing this year will increase by 16% and 40% of the new loans will just be for paying the interest of outstanding debts.

2. 中国的国家债务超过了28万亿美元。但是对中国的会计处理有任何了解的人都知道这个数字很可能还只是一个保守数字。真或假？实际上，统计数据显示今年的贷款将会增加16%，40%新增贷款将会用于支付现存债务的利息。

3. China wants its currency to become an international currency, but nobody knows its value. True or false?

3. 中国想要人民币成为国际货币，但是没有人知道人民币值多少钱。真或假？

4. People are buying houses around here, but nobody is living in them.True or false?

4. 人们买房子，但是没有人住在里面。真或假？

5. The Education System. True or false?

5. 教育体系。真或假？

I do not necessarily agree with all the contents of that e-mail but based on recent revelations, they do have merit. Maybe you should disprove the above as mere allegations and show us proof to clarify some things a bit?

我并不同意那封邮件里的全部内容，但是根据现在的披露，确实言之有物。也许你不同意上面所说的，然后给我们看看你的反证的证据？

David Kuo   2 days ago  
If the article is true then why US is so nervous about the China's rising. Why those China's neighbors with territory disputes with China are so afraid of China and are looking for US to help. They can simply sit and see China to automatically explode by itself within a couple years. So , to me, the author is slapping his face by himself. Or the author just wanted to get catch people's eyes by writing this article in order to make some money to feed himself.

如果这篇文章写的是真的，为什么美国对中国崛起这么不安呢。为什么和中国有领土纠纷的中国的邻居们这么害怕中国，因而向美国求助呢。他们坐下来，看着中国在几年里自己爆掉就好了嘛。所以对我来说，作者就是自己打脸。或者作者只是想吸引眼球，好赚点糊口的钱。

DrGod   13 hours ago  
The 1820-1870 period America had import tariffs (mercantism), a manipulated currency (over pricing silver to gold vs Europe...culminating in Cross of Gold speech), slave labour (ends during this period), child labour, sweatshops (American garment district in NY was famous for this), genocide of the Native Americans, belligerent statements such as Manifest Destiny, 54 40 or fight and the Monroe Doctrine, a war with a neighbouring country and a civil war fought by an elected president who suspended habeas corpus, threw a state legislature in jail as well as imprisoned journalists. Followed by a long depression. And this period is book ended with wars against the United Kingdom and Spain.

1820-1870年期间，美国有进口关税（重商主义）、一个被操纵的货币（太专业，不懂。。。）、奴隶劳力（在此期间结束）、童工、血汗工厂（纽约的美国服装业因此闻名）、对美洲印第安人实行种族灭绝、出现了命定扩张论和门罗主义这样的好战声明、和邻国打了一仗，打了一场内战，一个当选总统中止了人身保护法，把议会扔进监狱，监禁记者。跟着是一段长期的萧条。这个时期结束于和英国及西班牙的战争。

I imagine the books of the well educated in Europe in the 1880's must have discussed the implosion of the American dream.

想必1880年代在欧洲的书肯定都讨论过美国梦的内爆。

Tu Thuysanh   a day ago  
WELL HURRY UP AND IMPLODE PLEASE, THE SOONER CHINA IMPLODING INWARD, THE BETTER FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD TO GROW AND ENJOY.

好啊请赶紧内爆，中国越早内爆，世界其他国家能成长和生活的越好。