中国想让军队威慑，但不威胁美国（带评论） [美国媒体]

A leaked Chinese military document indicates thatChina is shifting from deterrence and protecting its territory to lookingbeyond its borders. China desperately wants a comprehensive protection of theirsecurity around the globe.

一份泄露的中国军事文件表明，中国的军事战略正在从威慑力与领土防卫的方面转移扩大到国境线以外。中国迫切希望全面保护他们在全球范围内的安全。

Achallenger with a strong military might push the dominant power into unleashinga preventive war before the challenger gets any stronger unless the emergingpower is so militarily strong that it can deter a conflict.

一个拥有强大军事力量的挑战者可能会逼迫统治力量在挑战者变得太强之前发动一场预防性战争，除非新兴势力军事力量强大到能够阻止冲突。

China’sleaders want to be able to
1. deter conflict
2. protect growing global interests (all of the Belt and Road projects)
3. Expand interests and influence around the world
4. Maintain party control over the military
5. China wants to be able to bully smaller powers

中国领导人希望做到
1.威慑冲突
2.保卫日益增长的环球利益（一路一带那些项目）
3. 扩大全球的利益和影响力
4.维持党对军队的控制
5.中国希望能够欺负弱小势力



Chinadoes not have a comfortable second place military position. China will need alarger Airforce, Marines and Navy to protect its growing global interests.Getting to the 50-70% level numerically while matching and keeping place withUS technology would be a solid deter but not threaten level. Although in someareas like submarines China could get more equipment but have them not designedto overmatch in both numbers and technology.

作为第二大国，中国的军事实力略显不足。中国需要更大规模的空军，海军陆战队，海军来保护其日益增长的全球利益。军队在数字上达到50-70%的水平，同时科技水平能与美国一较高下，将让中国军队具有强大威慑力，但还不到威胁美国的地步。尽管在一些领域，比如潜艇，中国装备更繁多，但它们并没有被设计成在数量和技术上超越对手。

Ithink China will want to maintain this strong second place balance for at leastthe next 20 years. It would be costly and not successful for China to attemptany threatening build up before 2040. Plus exceeding the US in conventionalforces still leaves a nuclear conflict.

我想至少接下来二十年中国都会仍然是强大的第二大国。在2040年之前，中国任何的威胁美国的企图都只会造成巨大开销且不会成功。另外，常规力量上超越美国依然可能导致核冲突。

Chinawill be number one in using technology to spy its own and other people and tomaintain party and Xi control.

中国人民永远会听党指挥。（咳咳）

China wants a smaller but technologically competentforce

中国想要个小而技术高端的竞争力量

Chinahas about 600 modern aircraft.

中国有大约600架现代飞机。

The USA air force operates more than 5,369 military aircraft, 406 ICBMsand 170 military satellites. The US has over 2000 fighters and 150 bombers.About 1200 are F15 and F16. The US has a combined 300 stealthF22 and F35s. The F35s will build up and replace F16 and F18 fighters. The USNavy has about 900 F18s. The US Marines have 200 F18s and 38 F35Bs.
Chinacould build up to half the US number of modern aircraft by 2030. China wants tosolidly exceed Taiwan, India and Japan. After the 2030’s as India progressesthen China would build more to stay ahead of India.

美国空军拥有超过5,369架军用飞机，406架洲际弹道导弹和170颗军用卫星。美国有2000多架战斗机和150架轰炸机。 F15和F16约有1200个。美国拥有300个隐形F22和F35。 F35将建立并取代F16和F18战斗机。美国海军有大约900架F18。美国海军陆战队有200架F18和38架F35B。
到2030年，中国可以造出美国现代飞机数量的一半。中国希望稳步超越台湾，印度和日本。 在2030年后随着印度的发展，中国将建造更多以保持领先于印度。

Shifting from army to Marines

重心从陆军转移到海军陆战队



However,if China has deterred conflict and protected and expanded its interests thenwhy would China press for military dominance?

然而，如果中国预防了冲突并保护以及扩大了它的利益，那么中国为何还会不顾一切地争取军事统治权呢？

AsSun Tzu said
The greatest victory is that whichrequires no battle.

孙子说的好：不战而屈人之兵，善之善者也。

Why does the US and China need to be in anadversarial relationship? Wouldn't it be more advantageous for humankind ingeneral if the two great powers work in tandem?

为什么美国和中国需要处于对抗关系中呢？ 如果这两个大国协同工作，对整个人类来说难道不是更有利吗？

Sure.And the Lion Shall Lay With The Lamb, too.

当然了，狮子也该跟羊一起睡。



I think it ispossible to come to a resolution that allows China to feel secure but does not,at the same time, constitute a "blank check" for China to act as theregional hegemon and force its neighbors to accept its will. Of course I don'tthink that such a resolution is inevitable, but I do think we can strive toachieve it.
One step that Ican recommend is for India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and perhaps otherslike Australia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. to work to get pasthistoric gripes with one another and speak with one voice concerning Chineseactions in their neighborhood. With or without American "buy-in" thiskind of unity will help limit what China can dictate beyond its shores.

我认为有可能达成一项让中国感到安全的决议，但同时也不会成为中国充当地区霸主并迫使其邻国接受其意志的“空白支票”。 当然我不认为这样的决议是不可避免的，但我认为我们可以努力实现它。
考虑到中国在他们附近的行动，我可以推荐的一步是印度，日本，韩国，越南，台湾，或许还有其他像澳大利亚，菲律宾，马来西亚，印度尼西亚等，努力克服彼此的历史仇恨并用一个声音说话。 无论有没有美国人的“买进”，这种团结将有助于限制中国在其海岸之外所能发挥的作用。