挽救委内瑞拉的根本办法 [美国媒体]

May 16, 2016 @ 09:58 PM

Ellen R. Wald ,  

Venezuela is in dire straits. Two and a half years of low prices have taken their toll on the socialist government that squandered oil wealth when prices were more than twice what they are today. Now, the country has almost no food, no water, no medical supplies, no currency, no electricity and no toilet paper.

委内瑞拉正处于极度的经济困难中。石油价格是现在的两倍的时候，这个社会主义国家铺张浪费，然而两年半的油价低迷使得委内瑞拉付出了代价。现在，委内瑞拉基本上没有食物、没有水、没有药品、没有钱、没有电、没有卫生纸。

Venezuela sits on the world’s largest known oil reserves but can barely pull enough crude oil out of the ground to send to its own refineries. Oil production in Venezuela has already dropped 12% this year. Granted, the electricity problem is not entirely the government’s fault, as Venezuela generates most of its electricity from hydroelectric plants and has been hit with a terrible drought. Without electricity the government has reduced the work week to only two days, and its oil pumps have not been able to produce more of the very product that the country desperately needs to sell.

委内瑞拉坐拥世界上已知的最大的油田，然而几乎没法打出足够的原油给自己的精炼厂。当然，电力问题不能全怪政府，因为委内瑞拉大部分电力通过水电站产生，而现在正经历一场可怕的旱灾。因为没有电，委内瑞拉政府已经把工作日减为每周只上两天班，它的油田没办法生产出更多急需的石油以供销售。

Riots and street demonstrations are growing and the prospect of a coup or civil war is brewing. Here is a radical solution to Venezuela’s problem that might even save Maduro’s government (not that a socialist autocracy is worth saving): privatize the oil industry immediately.

暴乱和游行在增加，一场政变或者内战正在酝酿。这里有一个根本的办法来解决委内瑞拉的问题，甚至可能挽救马杜罗的政权（倒不是说一个社会主义专制政府有什么可挽救的）：立即私有化石油行业。


 
A woman holds a sign with a message that reads in Spanish: “Maduro leave already……you are a nightmare!” during an opposition march in Caracas, Venezuela, Saturday, May 14, 2016. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos)

5月14日，在委内瑞拉卡拉卡斯的一场反对派游行中，一女子手举一个纸板，上面用西班牙文写着：“马杜罗赶紧下台。。。。你就是噩梦！”

Step 1: Break up assets into pieces and auction them off. 

第一步：分割资产，进行拍卖

Venezuela has the largest known crude oil reserves in the world. No single company will be able to pay enough to match what these assets are truly worth. Instead, the government should break up the map and auction off plots individually. Venezuela could even keep some assets to exploit later with a revamped national oil company or to sell at a later date. This is the easiest way to bring massive revenue to the country quickly. Even an immediate announcement of an upcoming auction might allow Venezuela to take some substantial loans to tide them over. Private companies will have to pay taxes in the future, and they will pump the oil much more efficiently.

委内瑞拉有世界上已知的最大的石油储备。没有哪个公司能够单独把这些资产买下来。所以政府应该把储油田分割开，一块一块的拍卖。委内瑞拉甚至可以保留一些油气田，以便今后改革后的国有石油公司去开发，或者晚一些时候再出售。这是为委内瑞拉带来大额财政收入的最简单的办法。甚至一个即将拍卖油田的声明可能就能够让委内瑞拉拿到大笔贷款以渡过难关。将来私有制企业必须要交税的，而且它们会更有效率的产油。

Step 2: Create a plan to convince foreign oil companies that rule of law and not government whim will prevail. 

第二步：制定计划，说服外国石油公司，以后将是法制管理，而不是政府的心血来潮

Venezuela is known for its nationalized oil and for its socialist (read state-run) economy. Moreover, because of the failing economy there is great fear of upcoming lawlessness. Venezuela needs to convince foreign oil investors that it will enforce the law and permit the oil companies to operate unimpeded by excessive regulation or government interference. This will be hard to do, but if Iran is able to do it, then Venezuela certainly has a chance. The risk might be great for foreign oil investors but the rewards are potentially huge given the extent of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves.

委内瑞拉因其国有石油公司和社会主义（即国有）经济而出名。并且由于现在经济正在崩溃，很多人担心接下来委内瑞拉会进入一个无法无天的环境。委内瑞拉需要说服外国的石油投资者，政府会依法管理，允许石油公司不受过多的监管或政府干预的阻挠。这很难推进，但是如果伊朗能做到，那么委内瑞拉肯定也能尝试一下。对于外国投资者来说，风险可能很大，但是潜在的回报也很高，考虑到已证实的委内瑞拉的石油储量。

Step 3: Insist that foreign oil companies hire Venezuelan workers even if the workers currently reside overseas.

第三步：坚持让外国石油公司雇用委内瑞拉工人，就算这些工人目前在海外居住

A large number of Venezuelan oil workers moved to places like Canada after Chavez broke up an industry strike and fired them. Many are actually suffering in other countries due to cuts after the oil price drop and could be enticed to return to work for private oil endeavors. It is important to hire local talent, whether they currently live in Venezuela or not, because these skilled employees will provide value to the country in the long-term.

在查韦斯打击了石油罢工，解雇了很多石油相关工作人员之后，其中很大一部分人去了像加拿大这样的地方。由于石油价格下跌，很多人在其他国家过的也不好，这些人可以被吸引回国，为私有石油公司工作。雇用当地人才很重要，不管他们现在生活在委内瑞拉还是别的国家，因为这些技术熟练的人员在长期来看会给这个国家带来价值。



In this Feb. 18, 2015 photo, storage tanks stand in a PDVSA state-run oil company crude oil complex near El Tigre, a town located within Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez oil belt, formally known as the Orinoco Belt. (AP Photo/Fernando Llano)
2015年2月18日，委内瑞拉查韦斯石油带（正式名称奥里诺科石油带）上的一个小镇，PDVSA国有石油公司的储油罐

Step 4: Venezuela must use its newfound income wisely. 
第四部：委内瑞拉必须聪明的利用其新获得的资金

This will probably be the most difficult part given the current regime’s track record of wasting millions of dollars a year supporting underperforming Formula One racecar drivers, buying Russian fighter jets and pocketing oil revenues themselves. So perhaps Maduro will not be able to stay after all.

这可能是最困难的部分，考虑到现政权一年浪费掉几百万美元来支持方程式赛车手，购买俄罗斯的战斗机，同时中饱私囊。所以马杜罗到头来可能还是位子坐不长。


Roy Nathanson 14 hours ago 
I live in Venezuela, and I am laughing my ass off. The measures you suggest are diametrically in opposition to every principle of the current regime. Furthermore, no private business will trust any assurances from the Maduro regime. Once there has been a change of government, of course, your suggestions make sense, not only for the petroleum sector, but for those of steel, aluminum, gold, cement, agriculture, and all the other sectors that have been expropriated and nationalized. But, so long as the political status quo continues, no solutions or progress are possible. Meanwhile, Venezuelans will continue to be killed in the streets and die from malnutrition and lack of medicines.

我住在委内瑞拉，我要笑死了。你提出的措施和现政府的每一条原则都截然相反。并且，没有私人公司会相信马杜罗政府的任何保证。如果掌权的换人了，当然，你的建议有道理，不仅对于石油业，对于其他被征收和国有化的行业也是。但是，只要政治环境保持现状，就不可能有解决的办法或者改善。与此同时，委内瑞拉人还会继续在街上被杀，死于营养不良和药物缺乏。

Frank Little 12 hours ago 
There is zero chance that Maduro would consider this option.

马杜罗根本不会考虑这一选择

Frank Little 12 hours ago 
Aside from the Maduro and Chavista refusal to even consider this, much of the Venezuelan pueblo would be reluctant to sell off the national patrimony, oil. Their fear of foreign economic domination is not unfounded.

除了马杜罗和查维兹不会考虑之外，大多数委内瑞拉人也不愿意卖掉国家的财产，石油。他们害怕会被外国经济主宰。