《国家利益》：中国的崛起（和美国的衰落）不可能发生 [美国媒体]

China's Rise (and America's Fall) Just Won't Happen. Here's Why.

中国的崛起（和美国的衰落）不可能发生



"China’s economy is beset by excessive debt accumulation and other maladies, but the main factor inhibiting economic potential is not a systemic debt crisis—a concern to be sure—but the abandonment of reformist policies."

“中国经济受到过多的累积债务和其他弊病的困扰，但抑制经济潜力的主要因素不是系统性的债务危机——当然这是一个确定无疑的担忧——而是它放弃了改革政策。”

“This geopolitical recession is something really simple—it’s the end of the U.S.-led global order,” Ian Bremmer, head of risk advisors Eurasia Group, told the ANZ Finance & Treasury Forum in Singapore this week.

“这场地缘政治衰退真的非常简单——它就是美国领导的全球秩序的终结，”风险顾问公司欧亚集团负责人伊恩·布雷默本周在新加坡澳新银行金融与财政部论坛上做出了以上表示。

Bremmer’s message plays well, and not just to those attending financial conferences. Most American policymakers, for instance, have bought into his “declinist” predictions about China’s rise and America’s fall. At least two—and maybe all three—of President Donald Trump’s immediate predecessors accepted the premise of eventual Chinese dominance.

布雷默传递的讯息不仅仅是对那些参加金融会议的人而言有着很大的影响。例如，大多数美国的政策制定者都相信他对中国崛起和美国衰落所得出的“衰落论”。唐纳德?特朗普前任的至少两位总统——或许是全部三位总统——都接受了中国最终将占据主导地位的假设。

For a long time, those predictions were generally accepted. Most recently, however, there are even more reasons to challenge the assumptions underpinning the narrative of declinism.

在很长一段时间里，这些预测被普遍接受。然而，最近，有更多的理由可以挑战这种支持美国衰落叙事的假设。



Yet China’s number is surely exaggerated. Beijing claimed nearly identical 6.7 percent growth for 2016. The World Bank, however, has cast doubt on that figure by releasing a chart in the middle of last year.

然而，中国的数字无疑被夸大了。2016年，北京所声称的经济增长率几近于6.7%。然而，世界银行在去年年中发布了一张图表，让人们对这一数字产生了怀疑。

So what was China’s gross domestic product increase in 2016 according to the World Bank? Answer: 1.1 percent .

那么，根据世界银行的数据，2016年中国的国内生产总值增长了多少？答案是1.1%。

Shocked? The 1.1 percent figure is surprisingly close to the single best overall indicator of Chinese economic activity, total primary energy consumption. In 2016, total primary energy consumption, according to Beijing’s official numbers, was up 1.4 percent.

震惊吗？令人惊讶的是，1.1%的数字与中国经济活动的最佳全局指标——能源消耗总量——是比较接近的。根据北京的官方数据，2016年的能源消耗总量增长了1.4%。

America’s economy, thanks to Trump’s deep cuts in taxes and regulations, is powering ahead. In the first two calendar quarters of this year, the economy grew 2.2 percent and 4.2 percent. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for the just-completed third quarter is 4.2 percent.

由于特朗普大幅削减税收和监管力度，美国经济正在全速前进。在今年的前两个季度，美国经济分别增长了2.2%和4.2%。亚特兰大联邦储备银行对刚刚结束的第三季度国内生产总值增长率的预测是4.2%。



China has yet to show it can break through the dreaded “middle-income trap,” and if it does not, the country’s economy will not overtake America’s. If China’s economy does not overtake America’s, Beijing is unlikely to dominate the global system that is supposedly crumbling. Without a vibrant economy, China will not be able to modernize and build up its military, it will not be able to ensnare developing nations with its debt-trap diplomacy, and it’s One Belt, One Road initiative will go unfunded.

中国还没有显示出它能够突破可怕的“中等收入陷阱”，如果做不到这一点，中国的经济将无法超越美国。如果中国的经济没有超过美国，北京就不太可能主导这个被认为即将崩溃的全球体系。如果没有一个充满活力的经济，中国将无法实现现代化和军事建设，它将无法利用它的债务陷阱外交来诱捕发展中国家，而它的“一带一路”计划将也将得不到资金支持。

Bremmer in Singapore made the argument, as the CNBC headline told us, that “A ‘Geopolitical Recession’ Has Arrived and the U.S.-Led World Order Is Ending.” During a week when U.S. equity indexes are plunging, his conclusion looks prescient.

正如CNBC的头条所告诉我们的那样，布雷默在新加坡提出了“一场地缘政治衰退”已经到来，而美国所领导的世界秩序正在终结的观点。在美国股市暴跌的一周内，他的结论看起来很有先见之明。

Yet by even that measure, the U.S. still looks strong. Despite this week's carnage, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.4 percent this year, and the broader S&P 500 has gained 2.1 percent. Nasdaq has increased 6.2 percent.

然而，即便如此，美国看起来仍然很强大。尽管本周发生了暴跌，但道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数今年已然上涨了1.4%，标准普尔500指数上涨了2.1%。纳斯达克指数上涨了6.2%。



Many of the people and much of the money have ended up in the United States, as walks through most American cities—and my suburban neighborhood—suggest.

大量的人和金钱最终都汇聚在了美国，这是我走访了大部分美国城市以及我那住在郊区的邻居之后发现的。

So the main underpinning of the American-led order, the American economy, is doing just fine. And the economy of the main challenger to that order is not doing well at all.

因此，美国所主导的秩序的主要基础——美国经济仍然表现出色。而这一秩序的主要挑战者的经济状况却不太好。

Laban Yu ? 5 hours ago
The World Bank has China growing 6.7% in 2016 but 1.1% in US$ terms due to currency depreciation. In 2017, China grew 6.8% but 8.9% in US$ terms because the currency recovered. This is basic stuff folks...
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世界银行提供的2016年中国增长数据为6.7%，但由于货币贬值，人民币对美元汇率上升，导致了名义GDP增长率仅为1.1%。在2017年，中国增长了6.8%，但按美元计算，却增长了8.9%，因为此时汇率已经得以恢复。这都是基本的常识。

Zhuubaajie ? 6 hours ago
Objectively, it is really hard to envy any POTUS. Bring back low and medium range manufacturing to America, the price of goods would double or triple and most folks will suffer serious drop in living standards. For American industry to really prosper, the clear alternative would be to sell as much high end technology goods as possible to all comers. But there is paranoia that somehow that would be bad. So it is back to being stuck between a rock and a hard place.

客观地说，任何一任美国总统都不值得嫉妒。将中低水平的制造业带回美国，商品的价格会翻两倍或三倍，大多数人的生活水平将会严重下降。对于美国的工业来说，要想实现真正的繁荣，一个明确的选择就是尽可能多地向所有的国家出售高端技术产品。但不知何故，美国人有一种偏执，这很糟糕。所以它又回到了进退两难的局面。



andrewp111 ? 15 hours ago
China will gain control of the Earth by colonizing the moon and turning it into strategic platform that can crush any nation on Earth at will. They will cover the moon with solar powered laser weapons that deny access to space to anyone else, and they will build huge mass drivers on the moon that can bombard anyone on earth to dust with impunity. Anyway, that is their plan, and they have the industrial might to carry it out.

中国将通过殖民月球并将其转变为战略平台，从而可以随意摧毁地球上的任何一个国家，从而获得对地球的控制权。他们将用太阳能激光武器来覆盖月球，而这些武器将阻止任何人进入太空，他们将在月球上建造大型驱动装置，从而可以不受惩罚地轰炸地球上的任何国家。不管怎样，这是他们的计划，他们有工业力量来执行它。

the_observer ? 19 hours ago
Would the author write the more realistic novel the Coming Collapse of the usa

作者是否会写出一本《美国即将到来的崩溃》的更加现实主义的小说？



Eddie K Kuang ? 20 hours ago
Gordon, are you so embarrassed to be half Chinese that you constantly feel pressured to prove yourself to be an authentic American by putting down your father's homeland?
Stop being such a cowardly shill for your overlords.

你会为自己是半个中国人而感到尴尬，以至于你不断地感受到了压力，要通过贬低你父亲的祖国来证明自己是一个真正的美国人吗？
别再为你的主子们放出这种懦弱的诱饵了。

R. Arandas Eddie K Kuang ? 14 hours ago
He is not a Chinese citizen though, and as such owes no loyalty to China.

但他不是中国公民，因此不应要求他效忠中国。

Eddie K Kuang R. Arandas ? 12 hours ago
I agree he owes nothing to China. I've just seen too many Asians in this country prostrate themselves to the idea of western exceptionalism just to save their own skins. Gordon irks me because he bashes China all the time. In America it is en vogue to do this because dying empires scapegoat. In the rest of the world, the idea of "Communist China" is so passé. China is our competitor but shouldn't be construed as our enemy. He thinks he's doing good by bashing China but he's hurting prospects of future cooperation and investment from China, especially when we will need it the most after our currency collapses. We frankly need their money and cooperation and him playing to the fears of Americans does nothing for any of us.

我同意他不欠中国任何东西。我只是看到这个国家有太多的亚洲人为了弥补自己的肤色所造成的问题而俯首于西方例外主义。他惹恼了我，因为他一直在抨击中国。在美国，这样做是很流行的，因为垂死的帝国需要替罪羊。在世界其他地方，中国的概念几乎没有什么影响。中国是我们的竞争对手，但不应被视为是我们的敌人。他认为自己在打击中国这方面做得很好，但他损害了与中国未来的合作和投资的前景，尤其是在我们的货币崩溃之后，我们将非常需要它。坦率地说，我们需要他们的钱和合作，而他却让美国人对中国感到恐惧，这对我们任何人都没有任何帮助。



Zhuubaajie George Barnett ? 20 hours ago
Percentagewise, these old age numbers are no worse than America. Also the big difference is the two nations' ability to handle citizen health. By 2018, the WHO reports that China's HALE (healthy life expectancy) exceeded that in America for the first time. And China's life expectancy at birth continues to increase year over year, while America's decreased for several years in a row. Drug overdose deaths in America reached 72,000 a year and is still accelerating upwards, and America is trending towards wholesale POT legalization.
Put that in the context of health costs in America already reaching 17% of GDP. China only has to spend less than US$500 per capita, while American per capita health costs are over $10,000. Yet the life expectancy at birth is only 2 years shorter in China. If they enforce no smoking rules, it is expected that life expectancy will exceed that of America.
The cost difference? China spends the saved money on opening one new college/university per week, graduating 8 million a year in tertiary education, with over 2 million in STEM disciplines (the latter being 8 times that in America), all without student debts (44 million Americans owe $1.52 trillion in student debts, with 8 million in default).
He is wrong again, after all these years of never being right.

从百分比来看，这些老龄化数字并不比美国糟糕。最大的不同是两国处置公民健康的能力。世界卫生组织报告指出，到2018年，中国的健康预期寿命首次超过了美国。而且，中国的出生人口预期寿命正在逐年增加，而美国却连续数年下降。美国的吸毒过量致死人数达到每年72000人，而且仍在迅速增加，而美国却正趋向于让大麻合法化。

再来看看美国的医疗成本，这一数字已经占到了其国内生产总值的17%。中国的人均医疗消费只有不到500美元，而美国的人均健康成本则超过了1万美元。然而，中国出生人口的预期寿命仅比美国少了2年。如果他们执行禁烟规定，其预计预期寿命将会超过美国。
成本差异？中国用节省下来的资金开设新的学院和大学，速度达到了每周一个，这让它每年拥有800万年获得高等教育的毕业生，其中有超过200万年的理工科毕业生(后一个数字是美国的8倍)，所有这些毕业生都没有背负助学贷款(4400万美国人欠了1.52万亿美元的助学贷款，其中有800万人违约)。
在经历了这么多年的预测错误之后，他又错了。



Lee Holland KungWong ? a day ago
Economic policy requires equal/fair trade. If China can't live with that then we need to crush China. Otherwise it will be the slow destruction of our own economy.

经济政策需要公平的贸易。如果中国不能做到这一点，我们就需要摧毁中国。否则，这将是对我们自身经济造成缓慢的破坏。

Zhuubaajie Lee Holland ? 19 hours ago
If there be imbalance, it is the abject profits deficit on the China side.
American subsidiaries sell over $550 billion a year in goods and services inside China each year. But because of serious protectionist moves, Chinese subsidiaries are allowed only about $25 billion in sales inside the U.S. The balance in profit further magnifies this deficit; goods and services sold by American companies trump the Chinese margins by far.
American auto majors sell more cars in China than they do in the U.S. Who is not opening markets?
What the administration is doing is killing off this net profit stream, further magnified in the stock market by P/E, and it is REAL LOSS in American wealth, all thanks to the wrongheaded policy.

如果存在什么不平衡，那就是中国一方可怜的利润赤字。
美国子公司每年在中国境内的商品和服务销售额超过了550亿美元。但由于严重的保护主义措施，中国子公司在美国的销售额仅为250亿美元左右，利润的平衡进一步放大了这一赤字；到目前为止，美国公司出售的商品和服务的利润超过了中国的。
美国汽车巨头在中国的汽车销量超过了美国，是谁没有开放市场？
美国政府正在做的是扼杀这一净利润流，让股市中的市盈率进一步被放大，这是美国财富的真正损失，这一切都要归功于错误的政策。

Rod Seel Lee Holland ? a day ago
If China does not open their markets to the world, they will find themselves isolated. Already the world is adjusting trade policies that will exclude China. The Trump administration has set in motion an adjustment by the world's free markets to punish China for it's closed markets. China is on notice, they either open their markets, or suffer the consequences.

如果中国不向世界开放市场，他们就会发现自己被孤立了。全世界已经在调整将中国排除在外的贸易政策。特朗普政府已经启动了全球自由市场的调整举措，以惩罚中国的封闭市场。中国正得到警告，他们要么开放市场，要么就承受后果。



Fred Wang ? a day ago
So Gordon is backpedaling his failed predictions. From the Coming Collapse he switched to No Rise.

因此，这个家伙正在放弃他失败的预测。他从“即将到来的崩溃”转向了“没有崛起”。

BaronR ? a day ago
The rise of China is happening whether one likes it or not. The views and perceptions are many and wide.
You can't hide the fact that the rise of China is not just merely by accident. China has brought more than 80% of its population out of poverty, it has developed a strong manufacturing base, it has grown to be the second largest economy in the world and it has continued to open up its domestic market o the world.
G. Chang is a known anti China's writer. He often manipulates information to suit his comments.
Looking at the World Bank data on GDP from 2010 to 2017 these are the two set of years for comparison. In 2010 US GDP was $14.94 trillion while China was $6.1 trillion. In 2017 US was $19.39 trillion and China was $12.84 trillion. The percentage of increase in GDP from 2010 to 2017 will be US 29% and China 41%.
Every nation can rise above others but it is how the nation being judged. China from a low base in industrialisation to current took approximately 40 years and along the way it has also achieved very significant improvements to its nation, its people, its society, its judicial system and its position in the global scene. One important point needs to be stressed is to many China is a communist nation but its economic policies and its business environment is akin to capitalism, may be thats why it proclaimed "Socialism with China Character". I believe all these are significance factors in judging China's rise.

不管你喜不喜欢，中国的崛起正在发生。这是被众多人广泛接受的观点。
你不能掩盖这样一个事实：中国的崛起不仅仅是偶然的。中国已经有超过80%的人口摆脱了贫困，发展出了强大的制造业基地，成为世界第二大经济体，并持续开放国内市场。
他是一位着名的反华作家。他经常操纵数据以配合他的观点。
看看世界银行从2010年到2017年的GDP数据，2010年，美国GDP为14.94万亿美元，而中国为6.1万亿美元；在2017年，美国为19.39万亿美元，中国为12.84万亿美元。从2010年到2017年，美国GDP增长的百分比为29%，中国为41%。

每个国家都可以超越其他国家，但这正是一个国家的评判标准。中国从很低的工业化起点到目前的发展水平已经经历了大约40年的时间，在此过程中，中国在国家、人民、社会、司法体系及其在全球舞台上的地位方面也取得了显着的进步。需要强调的一点是，对于许多人而言，中国经济政策和商业环境却类似于资本主义，这或许就是它宣称自己是“中国特色社会主义”的原因。我相信，所有这些都是判断中国崛起的重要因素。



Zsari Maxim ? 2 days ago
Thank heaven. Chinese need to be really worried if he is to predict the opposite.

谢天谢地。如果他预测了相反的结果，中国人就真的需要担心了。