《国家利益》：对于下一场战争，美国可以做两手准备。 [美国媒体]

Two Ways America Can Prepare for—and Prevent—the Next War

对于下一场战争的预防，美国可以做两手准备。



America could lose the next war. That is the conclusion of a report by the non-partisan National Defense Strategy Commission, which was tasked by Congress to assess the U.S. military the Trump Administration’s 2018 National Defense Strategy.

美国无党派性质的国防战略委员会在一份报告里得出结论，美国可能会输掉下一场战争。。该委员会受国会委托对特朗普政府2018年的军方国防战略政策进行评估。

The report’s warning should not be taken lightly, and Washington must act to ensure the U.S. is as prepared as possible if a clash overseas turns into an armed conflict. First, policymakers must recognize that overextension has caused America to lose focus. Second, it would be wiser to rebuild power projection, such as through the Navy and Air Force, than to waste money and lives fighting unnecessary wars of choice.

报告警告称美国不能掉以轻心，华盛顿必须采取行动，确保一旦海外冲突演变成武装冲突，美国将尽可能做好准备。
首先，政策制定者必须认识到，对外过度扩张已经导致美国失去了军事针对重点。
其次，重建军事实力投射，例如建设海军和空军，要比浪费金钱和生命去打不必要的战争明智得多。

The report declares that “The U.S. military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict. It might struggle to win, or perhaps lose, a war against China or Russia. The United States is particularly at risk of being overwhelmed should its military be forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously.”

报告称，“美国军队在下一场冲突中可能遭受无法接受的高伤亡率和重大资产损失。”
在与中国或俄罗斯的战争中，美国可能会在生死搏杀中取胜，也可能会失败。如果美国的军队被迫同时在两条或两条以上的战线上作战，美国尤其有被压垮的危险。

If America could not handle Afghanistan and Iraq at the same time, how would it fare in two or more simultaneous conflicts against China, Russia, North Korea, or Iran?

如果美国不能同时处理阿富汗和伊拉克问题，那美国将如何同时处理两个或更多与中国、俄罗斯、朝鲜或伊朗的冲突？

Moreover, America’s military is overstretched and fighting multiple wars. Fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq continues, U.S. ground forces are operating in Syria, and America aids Saudi Arabia’s humanitarian disaster of a war in Yemen. According to a U.S. Department of Defense press release on December 3, there are four ongoing active U.S. military operations across the world, including action in Somalia, the Philippines, and Pakistan. Since 9/11, all of America’s wars have claimed the lives of 6,978 U.S. servicemembers and—when future medical costs for veterans are added—will cost about $5.6 trillion

此外，美国的军事力量已经捉襟见肘，却仍在进行多场战争。美国在阿富汗和伊拉克的战斗还在继续，美国地面部队正在叙利亚开展行动，美国援助的沙特阿拉伯在也门战争变成了人道主义灾难。
根据美国国防部12月3日的一份新闻稿，美国正在世界各地同时进行四次军事行动，此外还有包括在索马里、菲律宾和巴基斯坦的军事行动。自9/11以来，美国进行的所有战争已经夺去了6978名美国军人的生命，如果加上退伍军人未来的医疗费用，将花费大约5.6万亿美元。

With the federal debt approaching $22 trillion and unfunded liabilities amounting to an astounding $115.8 trillion, a day will come when budgets will be tighter. Already, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has warned that interest payments on the debt will surpass the cost of Medicaid by 2020 and Defense by 2023. If America is going to have the money to defend itself and deter rivals, it must get its finances in order. That includes entitlement reform and also some military changes.

随着美国联邦债务接近22万亿美元，无资金准备的负债将达到惊人的115.8万亿美元，总有一天美国国防预算预算会紧缩。无党派的国会预算办公室警告说，到2020年，美国对债务利息的支付将超过医疗补助计划的成本，到2023年将超过国防开支。如果美国想要有足够的钱来保护自己和遏制竞争对手，它就必须整顿财政。这包括权利改革和一些军事变革。

Washington should consolidate its military presence abroad, wind down failed wars, and avoid getting into future ones. Nation building and a sprawling global network of about 800 bases in 70 countries distract America from near-peer threats such as China and Russia. Washington cannot focus on every threat, everywhere, all the time and it cannot be ready for a real emergency against a major power if its forces are disbursed and fighting wars elsewhere.

华盛顿应该加强海外军事存在，结束失败的战争，并同时尽量避免卷入未来的战争。遍布全球70个国家的800个基地分散了美国对中国和俄罗斯等威胁的注意力。
美国不可能时时刻刻关注到每一个威胁，如果它的军队被派往别处打仗的话，那么它就不可能随时准备好应对与另一个大国之间的紧张冲突，

The Trump Administration’s National Security Strategy rightly points out that great power competition has returned and that it is overdue that Washington refocused on Moscow and Beijing. The National Defense Strategy Commission report also is correct to warn that a future state-to-state conflict would likely involve rapid, high losses resulting in possible defeat. Although war between two nuclear powers would be a foolish undertaking it could happen by accident or if escalation during a crisis got out of hand. For instance, in a war over Taiwan American forces would have a great distance to travel while local units would likely be overwhelmed.

特朗普政府的国家安全战略正确地指出，大国竞争已经卷土重来，华盛顿早就应该重新关注莫斯科和北京。
美国国防战略委员会的报告也在明确地警告称，未来的国与国冲突可能会有许多特点，比如战争速度快、损失率高，从而进一步导致交战双方的失败可能性增大。
虽然两个核大国之间的战争是一个愚蠢的举动，但在危机失控，局势升级时，一切皆有可能。
例如，在大陆对台的解放战争中，美国军队想要赶到台湾需要跨越很长的路途，而在美军赶路的这段时间里，台湾当地部队可能会遭遇全军覆没的危险。

This is why America needs to focus on maintaining and expanding its power projection capabilities, most notably its Air Force and Navy, instead of spreading them thin . That investment would help deterrence against, and preparation for, a crisis. Meanwhile, supporting the war in Yemen, staying in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a possible invasion of Iran or Venezuela all do the opposite.​

这就是为什么美国需要专注于维持和扩大其军事力量的投射能力，尤其是其空军和海军。这些投资将有助于遏制和准备下一场军事危机。
与此同时，美国支持的也门战争、留在伊拉克和阿富汗的军事行动，以及未来可能入侵伊朗或委内瑞拉的战争计划，都会起到无助于美军军力建设的负面作用。

Americans win when their military deters other countries from using force. But Americans lose when elected officials send thousands of sons and daughters overseas and spend trillions of dollars to fight unnecessary wars. Good strategy and appropriate defense spending are supposed to limit the loss of lives and money through deterrence and—when necessary—fighting to win. So far, policymakers have not gotten this message. Scattering America’s forces across the globe , fighting multiple failing wars and ignoring the need for a less-taxed Navy and Air Force to deter China and Russia is a grave error. It would be better for everyone if elected officials realized this sooner rather than later.

当美国军队与其他国家进行武力较量时，美国人赢了。但是，当政客把成千上万人的儿女送往海外，花费数万亿美元打不必要的战争时，美国人输了。
好的战略和适当的国防开支应该通过军事威慑和必要时的战斗来减少生命和金钱的损失。到目前为止，政策制定者还没有领悟这个道理。分散美国军队到世界各地，打几场失败的战争，忽视海军和空军的建设，还妄想威慑中国和俄罗斯，这都是严重的错误。
如果政客能尽早意识到这一点，对所有人都是好事。