乌克兰东部战争的结束看起来遥遥无期 [美国媒体]

An end to the war in eastern Ukraine looks as far away as ever

乌克兰东部战争的结束看起来遥遥无期

Even peace talks have ground to a halt

和平谈判甚至已经停止了



“DO YOU know where you’re heading?” asks Andrei, a wide-eyed Ukrainian soldier stationed at the edge of government-controlled territory in the country’s war-torn east. On the other side of the front line, Artyom, a burly border guard in the Russian-backed separatist enclave, passes his days in a booth adorned with a “Donetsk People’s Republic” emblem and two portraits—Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, and Ramzan Kadyrov, the brutal ruler of Chechnya. There Artyom interrogates arrivals who arouse his suspicions, inquiring about their allegiance while rubbing a combat knife strapped to his left thigh.

“你知道你要去哪儿吗？”安德烈问道。他是宽眼睛的士兵，驻扎在乌克兰饱受蹂躏东部地区政府控制区的边境。在前线另一边的俄罗斯支持的分裂主义飞地，身材魁梧的边防守卫阿蒂姆在挂有“顿涅兹克人民共和国”徽章和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和残忍的车臣统治者拉姆赞·卡德洛夫肖像的哨所里度过每一天。在那里，阿蒂姆审问着那些可疑的来客，一边摩挲着捆在左腿上的战斗匕首，一边质问他们是否效忠共和国。

As the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year, there is still no end in sight. Large swathes of the Donbas region remain under the control of separatists. A 500-km “contact line”, bristling with landmines, cuts through it. More than 10,000 people have been killed there since 2014. Casualties continue to pile up, although at a slower rate than in the past. Earlier this month, three schoolboys were blown up by a landmine not far from Artyom’s post. In Avdiivka, a front-line town in Ukrainian government-controlled territory, even a recent stretch of relatively quiet months seems ominous（不吉利的）: “When things are calm for a long time, it usually ends badly,” says Olga, a doctor stationed there. Talks aimed at resolving the conflict have ground to a halt ahead of Ukraine’s presidential and parliamentary elections next year.

随着乌克兰战争进入第五个年头，目前仍看不到结束的希望。顿巴斯的大片地区仍在分裂分子的控制之下。一条长达500千米的布满地雷的“分界线”将这个地区一分为二。自2014年来，超过1万人在此丧生。尽管速度比过去慢，但伤亡人数仍在增加。本月初，三个学生在离阿蒂姆哨卡不远处的地方被地雷炸死。在乌克兰政府控制区的前线城镇阿夫迪夫卡，即使最近几个月相对平静的日子似乎也是不太吉利的：“当平静了很长时间，通常会有更糟糕的结局。”驻扎在那儿的医生奥尔加说道。乌克兰明年将举行总统和议会选举，此前旨在解决争端的谈判已经停止。

Although the world’s attention has shifted, Ukrainians still see the war as the country’s most important issue, surpassing corruption and the economy. Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine’s president, has employed a slogan: “We stopped the aggressor and defended the country!” Yet few place much faith in the Minsk II agreement, the accords signed in 2015 that call for the separatist-held territories to return to Ukrainian control and be granted a nebulous模糊的含糊的 “special status”. These comprise large parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Disputes over implementation have been stuck in a vicious circle for years: Ukraine argues that security and control over the border with Russia should come before political steps; Russia insists on receiving political guarantees before relinquishing放弃 control of the territory it holds. Many in Ukraine believe the accords, imposed during a ferocious Russian advance, are a rotten deal. Continuing to rely on them is “like riding a dead horse”, argues one MP.

尽管国际社会的注意力已经转移他处，乌克兰人仍将这场战争视为头等大事远超腐败和经济。乌克兰总统波罗申科用了这样的口号：“我们抵挡住了侵略者，保卫了国家！”然而几乎没人对新明斯克协议抱有信心，该协议签署于2015年旨在呼吁分裂分子控制区回归乌克兰控制并获得模糊的“特殊地位”。这些地区包括顿涅兹克和卢甘斯克的大部分地区。近几年来，关于执行方面的争议陷入了恶性循坏：乌克兰方面认为应该在考虑政治问题前优先考虑乌俄边境安全和控制问题；俄罗斯坚持在放弃对其所持领土的控制权前先得到政治保证。许多乌克兰人认为，这项协议是俄罗斯在乌克兰大举进兵时强加的，是一项糟糕的协议。一位乌议员认为继续依赖他们就“如同骑死马一样无法前进”。

Privately officials acknowledge that the Minsk agreements will need to be amended, expanded or even replaced before a settlement can be reached. One addition under discussion is a UN peacekeeping mission. Kurt Volker, the American special representative for Ukraine, says several countries have already agreed to contribute forces, among them Sweden, Finland, Belarus, Turkey and Austria. Yet negotiations with Russia over the mandate have ground to a halt. Until Mr Putin decides otherwise, the smouldering status quo will endure. There has been no meeting between Mr Volker and his Russian counterpart, Vladislav Surkov, since January. Plainly, Russia has decided to wait to see what happens at the elections, hoping to end up with more pliable counterparts in Kiev, if not as president, then at least controlling a large chunk of parliament.

官员们私下里承认在达成解决方案前，明斯克协议需要修订、扩充甚至是替换。其中一个正在讨论的问题是联合国维和任务。美国驻乌克兰特别代表沃尔克表示，瑞典、芬兰、白俄罗斯。土耳其和澳大利益等国已经同意向乌克兰派遣部队。然而，与俄罗斯在授权问题上的谈判陷入了停顿。除非普京总统做出其他决定，否则这样暗无天日的日子将持续下去。自今年1月以来，沃尔克和俄罗斯总统助理弗拉基斯拉夫·苏尔科夫再没有进行过会谈。很明显，俄罗斯决定等着看乌克兰选举的结果如何，希望乌克兰会选出一个圆滑的对手，即使他当不上总统也至少能控制议会的大部分席位。

In the meantime, the separatist republic in Donetsk plans to hold its own pseudo-elections this November, following the assassination of its nominal head, Alexander Zakharchenko, at a café in Donetsk in August—the latest of several commanders to meet untimely deaths on their home turf. While Russian and separatist officials blame his killing on Kiev and the West, an inside job looks more likely, with Russia seeking to clear away troublesome local leaders. Yet throughout Donetsk, Mr Zakharchenko’s likeness still adorns billboards, alongside such quotes as “We have one motherland and that is Russia.”

与此同时，顿涅兹克分裂共和国计划在今年11月举行伪选举。此前8月顿涅兹克名义领导人扎哈尔琴科在顿涅兹克一家咖啡馆遇刺身亡——这是最近在自己地盘上英年早逝的几位统治者之一。但是俄罗斯和分裂分子将扎哈尔琴科的死归咎于乌克兰和西方国家，但这更像是他们自己的行动，因为俄罗斯正在寻求清除那些制造麻烦的地方领导人。然而，在顿涅兹克各地，扎哈尔琴科的肖像仍出现在广告牌上，配有这样的标语：“我们有一个祖国那就是俄罗斯。”

Though the division of the Donbas is artificial, the longer the rupture remains, the harder reintegration will become. “The sides seem determined to reinforce their positions on the ground and their physical separation from each other,” argues a recent report by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based watchdog.

虽然顿涅兹克的分裂是人为的，但是分裂的时间越长，重新融合的难度就越大。总部位于布鲁塞尔的监督机构国际危机组织最近发布的报告显示，“双方似乎决心加强各自在当地的地位以及彼此间的实际分裂。”

Even if the troops eventually retreat, the basic steps necessary for political reconciliation, such as drawing up voter lists for credible elections, will be devilishly difficult. Over 1.5m people have been displaced. Crossing the contact line illustrates the estrangement: those leaving Ukrainian government-held territory have their passports stamped as if leaving the country; visitors to separatist-held territory areissued “migration cards”, copies of a document handed out in Russia. The separatist authorities have commandeered telecoms infrastructure and launched a local phone network called “Phoenix”, which, symbolically, cannot connect with Ukranian cell-phone networks.

即使军队最终撤退，政治和解所需的基本步骤如为可信的选举起草选民名单将会十分困难。超过150万人无家可归。越过边境线就看到了两地的隔阂：那些离开乌政府控制区的人的护照上被盖了章就像他们已经离开了这个国家一样；前往分裂分子控制区的游客会领导一张“移民卡”，这是一份在俄罗斯分发的文件副本。分裂分子强占了电信基础设施，并推出了名叫“凤凰”的本地手机网络，它不能连接到乌克兰的手机网络。

For civilians on both sides, the political games have gone on far too long. Most want an end to the conflict, whatever the final configuration may be. Despite the fighting, they try to hang on to the pleasures of normal life. In Avdiivka, Evgeniy, a sandy-haired teenager, skips home from school past a shrapnel-scarred apartment block, though he admits that “the nights are still scary.” Long passes soar over a football pitch nearby where locals still play. Across the line in Donetsk, maintenance workers keep central gardens neatly sculpted. The opera theatre advertises new autumn productions, including “Turandot” and Alexander Pushkin’s “The Queen of Spades”. Yet like the elusive Ace in Pushkin’s drama, peace for the people of eastern Ukraine is out of reach.

对于双方的平民来说，这场政治游戏拖得太久了。不管最终的结果如何，大多数只希望结束争端。尽管战斗仍在继续，他们还是努力抓住正常生活的乐趣。在阿夫迪夫卡，一个名叫叶夫根尼的沙色头发少年从学校逃学回家的路上经过一栋布满弹孔的公寓，尽管他承认“这些夜晚非常恐怖。”附近一个足球场上当地人仍在踢足球，一个长传踢得漂亮。在顿涅兹克的另一边，维修工们正在整齐地雕刻着中央公园的雕像。歌剧院正在今秋新作《图兰朵》和亚历山大·普希金的《黑桃皇后》做宣传。然而，就像普希金戏剧中难以琢磨的王牌一样，乌东部人民的和平遥不可及。