中美贸易战何时休？ [美国媒体]

​When will the current trade and economic dispute between the USA and China be resolved?

中美贸易战何时休？



James Graham, Network Systems Engineer at Decline To State
It will be at least a few years before it shows any sign of ending. Here’s the list of demands from Trump that Xi has called “unreasonable”:
1. Trade Balance. The United States wants China to cut its trade surplus with the United States by $200 billion by the end of 2020 compared with 2018 levels. The U.S. demand also requires that China reach 75 percent of its commitment to increase its purchase of U.S. goods by $100 billion for the year starting June 1, 2018, and that it meet 50 percent of an additional $100 billion increase for the year beginning June 1, 2019.

至少还要再过几年，中美之间的贸易战才会显露出一些结束的迹象。以下是特朗普提出的而中国认为“不合理”的要求:
1. 贸易平衡。美国希望中国在2020年底前将对美贸易顺差在2018年的基础上削减2000亿美元。美国还要求中国在2018年6月1日开始的一年里，将对美国商品的购买量增加到1000亿美元，将贸易顺差降低到75%，并在2019年6月1日开始的一年里，中国的对美商品购买量再增加1000亿美元，将贸易顺差降低到50%。

2. Intellectual Property and Technology Theft. The U.S. delegation demanded Beijing immediately halt the subsidies and support its gives industries as part of its Made in China 2025 plan to make the country a leader in advanced technologies, stop policies that promote technology transfers, and stop government-backed cyber theft of intellectual property. In addition, the United States wants China to withdraw its complaint at the World Trade Organization about the Section 301 investigation by July 1 and to not respond in kind to any actions that the United States takes against China as an outcome of the investigation — such as placing 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of goods.

2. 知识产权和技术盗窃。美国代表团要求北京立即停止补贴以及对中国制造2025计划中那部分产业的支持（该计划旨在使中国成为先进技术的领导者），停止强迫技术转让的政策，并制止政府支持的黑客盗窃知识产权的行为。此外,美国希望中国撤回7月1日在世界贸易组织对301条款调查的投诉,并承诺调查结果出来以后，中国不会以与美国对抗中国同样的方式对美国采取任何行动,比如对进口自美国的价值500亿美元的商品征收25%的关税。

3. Tariffs and Non-Tariff Barriers. The United States wants China to further open up its economy to foreign imports, demanding that China lower its tariffs to U.S. levels in all noncritical sectors. The United States also demands China remove certain non-tariff barriers in many key sectors, including those associated with its Made in China 2025 initiative, while also recognizing that the United States will impose tariffs and restrictions in critical sectors. The United States also demanded China open up its economy for U.S. services and agricultural products.

3.关税和非关税壁垒。美国希望中国进一步向外国进口商品开放经济市场，要求中国在所有非关键领域将关税降至与美国相同的水平。美国还要求中国在许多关键领域取消某些非关税壁垒，包括与中国制造2025倡议相关产业的非关税壁垒，同时承认美国将在关键领域对中国实施关税和限制。美国还要求中国对美国的服务和农产品开放经济市场。

4. Investment Restrictions. With the United States planning on significant investment restrictions on Chinese investors in strategic sectors, it is demanding that China not challenge them or retaliate.
5. China's Investment Restrictions. The United States is demanding that China make it easier for U.S. companies to invest in the country. It wants Beijing to improve its negative list for foreign investment (this is a list of sectors where China bans foreign investment and/or requires regulators to grant special approval) . The United States also wants the removal of foreign investment restriction and ownership requirements.

4. 投资限制。美国计划对战略领域的中国投资者实施重大投资限制，要求中国不要挑战他们，也不要报复。
5. 中国的投资限制。美国要求中国让美国公司更容易在中国投资。它希望北京改善外商投资环境，取消一系列的消极因素(在很多领域中国禁止外国投资和/或需要监管机构给予专项审批)。美国还希望中国取消外国投资限制和所有权要求。

6. China's Non-Market Economy Status. The United States wants China to drop the vital case at the WTO challenging U.S. treatment of China as a non-market economy.

6. 中国的非市场经济地位。美国希望中国放弃在世贸组织对美国对待中国非市场经济的态度提出挑战的关键案件。

Xi isn’t backing down and the issues for which the trade war was started are issues for both parties. The next round of elections will require candidates to commit to being tough on China.

对于这些要求，中国并没有做出让步，而这些引发贸易战的问题对双方来说都是个问题。美国的下一轮选举将要求候选人承诺对中国采取强硬态度。

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Bhawan P. Singh, Dad, Husband, Former US Army Officer, Citizen, CEO.
父亲，丈夫，前美国陆军军官，公民，首席执行官。
Not for 10 years atleast. The biggest problem here is if the world’s suppliers and businesses will ever be able to trust US businesses again. Now, if it’s becoming very expensive to do business with the US, these world’s suppliers and businesses are finding other lucrative replacement markets, will they ever come back to US when it all calms down? Why would they when we can’t even keep our promises, especially when we randomly throw 20% tariffs in the middle of ongoing deal, why would they trust us again? Why should they?

至少10年内不会。这里最大的问题是，全球供应商和企业是否能够再次信任美国企业。现在，如果人们发现与美国做生意的代价变得非常昂贵，这些全球供应商和企业就会寻找其他有利可图的替代市场，当一切平静下来时，他们还会重新回到我们身边吗?当我们连承诺都不能兑现的时候，特别是当我们在正在进行的交易中随意地征收20%的关税时，他们为什么还要信任我们呢?他们又为什么非要信任我们呢?

I can tell you from extensive personal experiences that paperwork, contracts and statements are all good for lawyers and accountants. But at the end of the day, when I go abroad and shake hands with a foreign business, my word is my bond, and I am expected to deliver on my promises. When this faith is broken, it is extremely painful and very difficult to earn it back.
Trade war is not like a movie is ending at certain time. It will be much more challenging to rebuild trust with foreign businesses when it all calms down, when it will calm down. This issue has long-term ripple effects for the American economy from a strategic perspective.

以我个人丰富的从业经验告诉你，书面资料、合同和报表都对律师和会计师来说很有帮助。但是当我出国会谈结束，与一家外国企业的老板握手的时候，我的话就是我的保证，我必须兑现我的承诺。当这种信念被打破，那是极其痛苦的，你很难重新挽回它。
贸易战不像电影会在某个时间结束。当一切都平静下来时，重建与外国企业的信任将面临更大的挑战。从战略角度看，这会对美国经济产生长期的连锁反应。

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Xuan Su
The dispute will get resolved when US voters start to elect officials who are genuinely interested in actually resolving the disputes, instead of either keeping it ongoing as a political talking point for their own political benefits, or using it as a tool to bash China in hope of keeping China down.
Right now, the US voters are, let me put it bluntly, too dumb to realize the “dispute” has little to do with what China is doing, but everything to do with what US politicians are trying to get out of it.
There are definitely ways to resolve the disputes that can be tolerable to both sides. But, US is definitely not looking to go down those ways right now.

当美国选民开始选举那些真正对解决实际争端感兴趣而不是将其持续作为攫取自己政治利益的政治话题,或使用它作为一个工具来抨击中国压低中国的希望的官员的时候，贸易战将会得到解决,。
现在，坦率地说，美国选民太愚蠢了，没有意识到“贸易争端”与中国正在做的事情没有多大关系，而是与美国政界人士试图从中脱身息息相关。
双方都能接受的解决争端的办法是肯定存在的。但是，美国现在绝对不会走这条路。

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Dan Pedersen, BS Engineering, MBA/MIS, 30 years international business and many mega projects
工程学学士，MBA/MIS, 30年国际商务和大型项目经验
China has used up all its goodwill. The consequences of its past bad behavior are now being realized. The trade war has widespread support in the US and EU. When trump leaves, it will likely formally include the EU. It will end when China demonstrates that it is ceasing its predatory practices by complying with Trumps demands.
Please remember, Trump is only asking China to comply with agreements that every other country in the world already comply with.

中国已经耗尽了人们对它的所有善意。中国过去的不良行为的后果现在正在被其认识到。这场贸易战在美国和欧盟得到了广泛支持。继特朗普之后，欧盟很可能也会正式加入其中。当中国通过满足特朗普的要求，证明自己正在停止掠夺性的做法时，这一切就会结束。
请记住，特朗普只是要求中国遵守世界上其他国家已经遵守的协议。

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Lance Chambers, Read a lot...
It will come to an end when Trump leaves office because, level heads will be back in control and this insanity will stop. Even the GOP with a sensible set of peole and a GOP president will be better than Trump .

当特朗普离任时，这一切将会结束，因为，头脑冷静的人将会重新掌权，这种疯狂的行为将会停止。而共和党内有一群明智的人，有一位共和党总统，也会比特朗普要好。

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Jamie Cawley, LIved in China 2012-2018, now Hong Kong
2012-2018年居住在中国，现居香港
When Trump sees the best political advantage in taking the concessions that China was offering to Mnuchin, and have given to every other country since, before he started it.

当特朗普看到中国向美国财长做出的让步具有最大的政治优势时，他就会结束贸易战。

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Carmen Lyu, Business Manager at JumoreGlobal.com (2010-present)
After the two countries agreed to pause the trade war for 90 days, U.S. stocks rose, S&P 500-stock index climbed 1.1 percent, notching its fifth gain in the last six trading sessions. Major Asian and European equity markets also posted solid increases.
How will it influence USA?
Almost 75 percent of chief financial officers say U.S. trade policy will have a negative impact on their business over the next six months, according to the latest CNBC Global CFO Council survey.

在两国同意将贸易战暂停90天之后，美国股市上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨1.1%，这是过去六个交易日中第五次上涨。
亚洲和欧洲主要股市也出现强劲上涨。
它将如何影响美国?
美国全球财经有线电视新闻台全球首席财务官委员会的最新调查显示，近75%的首席财务官表示，未来六个月美国贸易政策将对他们的业务产生负面影响。

As a citizen, they can feel most about how daily life is changed by the Trade War.
We all know that U.S. and China have announced to impose extra tariff on each other’s goods, including some fundamental good stuff such as U.S. soybean,corn, sorghum, pork… and China’s steel, aluminum…
According to the latest news, China Has Halted Its US Soybean Orders Due to Trade Tensions

作为一个公民，他们最能感受到日常生活是如何被贸易战改变的。

我们都知道，美国和中国已经宣布对彼此的商品征收额外关税，包括一些基本的优良产品，如美国的大豆、玉米、高粱、猪肉……以及中国的钢铁、铝……

根据最新消息，由于贸易紧张，中国暂停了在美国的大豆订单。

The result is clear, citizens have to pay for more for the same goods than ever before. If a slight price lift of food stuff is ok, what about cars and other high value products? In the long-run, it would exert more pressure to normal low to middle class families.
What’s more, the gloomy U.S. auto, technology, farming industry will increase the unemployment , for example the ZTE ban and Huawei ban make them lose the Chinese market, meanwhile, it would hurt U.S. too.

结果很明显，人们必须为同样的商品支付比以往任何时候都多的费用。如果食品价格的小幅上涨是可以接受的，那么汽车和其他高价值产品呢?从长远来看，这将对正常的中低收入家庭施加更大的压力。

此外，低迷的美国汽车、科技、农业行业的失业率将会增加，而诸如对中兴通讯和华为的禁令将使它们失去中国市场，同时也会伤害美国。

Reference: US Consumers are the Biggest Victim of Trump’s China Tariffs
There are enough opponents in the US.
Aim at ‘Made in China’ 2025 plan, Trump’s trade war is too confident that may ignore the benefits of Americans.
In the article of US Consumers are the Biggest Victim of Trump’s China Tariffs, different US industries got hurt once the trade war began.

援引文章：《美国消费者是特朗普对华关税的最大受害者》
在美国有足够多的人反对贸易战。

特朗普过于自信的发起了旨在针对“中国制造2025”计划的贸易战，可能忽视了美国人民的利益。

这篇文章认为，美国消费者是特朗普对华关税的最大受害者，一旦贸易战爆发，美国不同行业都受到了伤害。

Technology Industry
No matter how manufacturers of smartphones, televisions, or computers proudly boast their products are “Designed in California”, all count to a large extent on China’s technology and manufacturing sectors. Trump’s new campaign of economic sanctions on China creates a headache for US companies reliant on Chinese circuit boards, chips, servers and possibly their customers, too.

科技行业

无论智能手机、电视或电脑制造商如何自豪地吹嘘他们的产品是“加州设计”，它们在很大程度上都有赖于中国的技术和制造业。特朗普对中国的新一轮经济制裁行动，给依赖中国电路板、芯片、服务器，可能还有他们那里的客户的美国公司带来了麻烦。

The impacts could abound beyond hardware companies. Open Compute Project is originally created by internet companies like Facebook, Google, and Microsoft in order to lower the prices of servers and other data center equipment. But now its function is weakened by the new China tariffs. Silicon Valley lobbying group The Internet Association stated the knock-on effects like higher product prices and job losses are their topmost worries and there is going to be a large number of lobbying recently as each sector does not want to be caught up in the thing.

贸易战不仅仅影响到了硬件公司。“开源计算机项目”最初由脸书、谷歌、微软等互联网公司创建，目的是降低服务器等数据中心设备的价格。但现在，新的针对中国的关税削弱了它的功能。硅谷游说团体互联网协会表示，产品价格上涨和就业岗位流失等连锁效应是他们最担心的问题，近期将会有大量游说活动，因为每个行业都不希望被卷入这件事。

Farming Industry
U.S. agricultural exports to China could generate almost 20 billion U.S. dollars annually for American farmers. In terms of soybean export, China buys almost 2/3 of all exported U.S. soybeans and is by far the leading destination for US. If China follows through on the plan to impose a 25% tariff on soybean and other agriculture, it would ultimately the farming industry, the growing panic of U.S farmers is reasonable. Group against to U.S. tariffs is staged in the states of Lowa, Ohio, Indiana, where farmers are keeping watchful eye on the issue. What they need is stable income but many of them claimed these tariffs will hurt them a lot.

农业产业

美国对中国的农产品出口每年可为美国农民创造近200亿美元的收入。在大豆出口方面，中国购买了美国出口大豆的近三分之二，是美国大豆出口的主要目的地。如果中国执行对大豆和其他农产品征收25%关税的计划，这将是美国农业的噩梦。美国农民日益增长的恐慌是情有可原的。反对美国征收关税的组织正在俄亥俄州的罗瓦州举行集会，那里的农民正在密切关注这个问题。他们需要的是稳定的收入，但许多人声称，这些关税将对他们造成很大伤害。

Auto Industry
Economists maintained that most auto companies would ultimately pass on any higher import costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. The tariff act that imposes a 25 percent tariff on steel and 10 percent on aluminum will not affect the related industries immediately as feared, but in the end, consumers will bear the consequence in 2019, as per Dan Ikenson, director of trade policy studies at the Cato Institute. It takes time for the higher cost of raw materials to flow through the supply chain. Most U.S. manufacturers have already produced a predefined number of products waiting in warehouses to be sold, and they are normally insulated by yearlong contracts that are pricing out.

汽车行业

经济学家们坚持认为，大多数汽车公司最终会以价格上涨的形式将进口成本上升转嫁给消费者。卡托研究所贸易政策研究主任丹•伊肯森表示，对钢铁征收25%关税、对铝征收10%关税的关税法案不会像人们担心的那样立即影响相关行业，但最终消费者将在2019年承担后果。原材料成本的上升要经过供应链传递到消费者那里是需要时间的。大多数美国制造商已经生产了多余数量的产品，并放在仓库里等待销售，而这些产品通常不会受到一年期合同定价的影响。

Once the costs accumulate until the end of the supply chain, prices for luxury consumer items like autos and appliances could start going up. The rising price of cars not only hinders American auto manufacturers’ capability to expand global market, but largely hampers U.S. citizens’ purchasing power.

一旦成本累积到供应链末端，汽车和家电等奢侈品的价格就可能开始上涨。汽车价格的上涨不仅阻碍了美国汽车制造商在全球市场上扩张的能力，而且在很大程度上伤害到了美国公民的购买力。