朝韩可以像东西德那样统一吗？ [美国媒体]

Can North Korea and South Korea ever be reunited again just like East and West Germany?

朝韩可以像东西德那样统一吗？



Janus Dongye, Researcher at University ofCambridge (2012-present)
Before answering the question, let’sfirstly have a look at the current problems faced in Germany:
After 28 years of unification (2018), thedivision between the West and East Germany still exist.
All German citizens need to pay the extra5.5% of their income for the “soli tax”: Solidarity Surcharge(Solidaritaetszuschlag), which is a tax for subsidizing the less-developed EastGermany. Since there is no political unity regarding a termination, we shouldnot expect it to be ended soon, although it was introduced as a temporaryadditional tax.
All the previous industries and companiesin East Germany were destroyed due to lack of competitiveness, leaving themajority of East Germany population unemployed. It is extremely difficult forEast German companies to start from scratch and regain competitiveness.
And what’s worse, East Germans still enjoyrelative high standard in social welfare, including compensation, pensions, andhealth care. This makes them reluctant to find jobs and work hard for betterlives.

回答这个问题之前，我们首先来看看德国现在所面临的问题：统一28年后，东西德的差别依旧存在。所有德国公民都得额外支付自己收入的5.5%作为“团结附加税”，这些钱用来支持较不发达的东德。由于在是否应该废除这个税收上无法达成一个统一的政治看法，所以这个税收短期内是不可能废除了，尽管它是一种临时的额外税收。
由于缺乏竞争力，东德之前所拥有的所有产业和企业都被摧毁了，导致绝大部分东德人口失业。东德公司要想重头再来并获得竞争力不是一件容易的事情。
更糟糕的是，东德人依然享有较高的社会福利，包括赔偿金，退休金和医保。这使得他们不愿意找工作和努力工作以过上更好的生活。



Income and Employment Gap: do you think theNorth Korean can create their new companies to compete with Samsung and LG?That is not possible. And do you think Samsung and LG have their extrapositions allocated for the North Koreans? That is not even possible as well.The most likely outcome is that most North Koreans would remain poor andmiserable, but they need subsidies from the South. Drugs, prostitution,gangsters would be popular and crime rates would rise and the society would notbe very stable.
Culture Gap: Even the current North Koreandefectors found it hard to blend in the South Korean society, then you canimagine the culture shock experienced if two population of the same size aremerged. Discriminations would spark more social divide and drive the NorthKoreans to retaliate.
There are also many other divisions such asinterest groups, ethnic groups, immigration, corruption etc. In conclusion,having a democratic system would only polarize but not harmonize the wholeKorean society.

收入和就业差距：你觉得朝鲜人可以建立起新公司同三星和LG竞争？不可能的。你觉得三星和LG有额外的职位留给朝鲜人？也不可能。最可能的结果就是朝鲜人依然贫穷，但是需要韩国人的救济。毒品，卖淫，帮派会盛行，犯罪率会上升，社会变得不稳定。
文化差异：即使是现在的脱北者也很难容易韩国社会，所以当两个人口差不多的国家融合时会产生巨大的文化冲击。歧视将引发更多的社会分裂，驱使朝鲜人去报复。
还有很多其他的分裂，比如利益集团，少数民族，移民，腐败等。总之，如果是民主体制将导致整个朝鲜半岛两极化，而不会产生和谐。



But I still believe the North and SouthKorea can be united, but not like the West and East Germany way.
Here is the plan:
Step 1: Special economic zones
North Korea should learn from what Chinadid in 1978 and open up its economy gradually and smoothly, but not abruptly.It can set up a few special economic zones so that it allows foreign companiesto enter and establish joint venture companies and factories.
And actually, North Koreans has alreadydone this, it has built the Kaesong Industrial Region that allows South Koreansto build factories. And has also planned the Sinuiju special economic zones bythe Chinese border that allows the Chinese to build factories.
ANALYSIS: North Korea Follows the ChinaModel to 'Reform and Open Up' - The News Lens International Edition
However, the North Korean government shouldalso learn more from China that the government should not intervene the foreigninvestments in the special economic zones. So that it can boost the FDIconfidences and credibility of the government.

但是我依然相信南北朝鲜可以统一，但不是东西德那种方式。
计划如下：
第一步：经济特区。
北朝鲜应该学习中国，渐渐稳步的开放经济。可以先建立几个经济特区，允许外国企业进入，建立合资企业和工厂。其实，北朝鲜已经这么做了，已经建立了开城工业区让韩国人建立工厂。还计划在中国边境建立新义州经济特区，让中国人建工厂。然而，北朝鲜还应该学习中国政府，不干涉特区内的外国投资。这样可以提升外国直接投资信心和政府信誉。

Step 2: Take loans from South Korea andChina and improve infrastructure
Stop developing nuclear weapons and let theChinese setup military bases to defend North Korea. Let China pressure the USto lift the sanctions. So that North Korea can take loans from China, SouthKorea, and Japan. Don’t be afraid of falling into the debt trap.
Since 1978, China took the loans from Japanand China used the money to buy all the equipment needed to develop itself. Andit took China 40 years to pay those loans back in 2018. It turned out the debtsare absolutely necessary.
Use the money to develop infrastructure,roads, railways, ports, airports etc. They are necessary for everything.

第二步：从韩国和中国贷款，提升基建。
不要发展核武器，让中国建立军事基地保护北朝鲜。让中国向美国施加压力解除制裁。这样朝鲜就可以从中国，韩国以及日本贷款了。不要害怕陷入债务陷阱。
1978年以来，中国从日本贷款，用这些钱购买了发展所需要的设备。中国花了了40年才还清这些贷款。事实证明债务是完全有必要的。
用这些钱发展基建，道路，铁路，港口和机场等等。这是基础。



Seungjin John Oh(오승진), Student (2004-present)
There are two things that must beconsidered about your question.
The first is “Can they united at all?”.
And the second is “Can they do it likeGermany?”.
And the answer is 1.yes and 2. no
Allow me to explain:
Now, ignore China for a moment. This graphtoo is outdated, but as you can see, the GDP per capita of South Korea isroughly 47 times that of North Korea.
Now, look at this:
You can see that East Germany was roughlytwice as poor than West Germany.
Now, ask yourself: “Can you unite twocountries with a 50-times economic difference just like you unite two countrieswith a 2-times economic difference?

这个问题中有两个问题必须考虑。第一个是朝韩可以统一吗？第二个是他们可以像德国那样统一吗？第一个问题的答案是肯定的，第二个问题的答案是否定的。
现在，我们先忽视掉中国。韩国的人均GDP几乎是朝鲜的47倍。而东西德的差距是两倍。现在你问问自己一下，经济差距达到50倍的两个国家可以像经济差距只有两倍的两个国家那样统一吗？