中国将会在AI领域领先世界么？ - 美版知乎 [美国媒体]

Will China lead the world in artificial intelligence?

中国将会在AI领域领先世界么？



回答1：
Glenn Luk, Invests in China
Answered Jan 23
China is likely to lead the world in artificial intelligence (AI). At the very least it will be one of the leaders in the space.
The reason is simple and it comes down to one thing: Data.
Data is the key input into AI algorithms and China is rapidly developing advantages in the data-collection area:
1，Quantity of Data: Over the last five years, China has digitized its economy and today generates an enormous amount of data that can be fed into AI algorithms. Case in point: Techcrunch: China’s surveillance network took just 7 minutes to capture BBC reporter.
2，Quality of Data: It is not just quantity of data that is important, but quality as well — and China’s data is of the highest quality. By “high-quality” I mean that the data is actionable, as opposed to just being noise. For example, in China data is much more attributable to real, verified users as opposed to anonymous identities. [1]
3，Centralization & Sharing of Data: Data collection is more centralized and concentrated in China with a handful of companies dominating the major data-collection sources (e.g. Ant/Tencent with transaction data). Fewer restrictions on privacy allow data to be more easily shared and pooled together (e.g. medical records).
As most people know, China’s privacy laws are less strict than laws and regulations in the United States and other advanced economies that have the resources and skills to compete in cutting-edge artificial intelligence research. Since an individual’s right to privacy sits pretty much at the core of the modern Western liberal democratic system, I do not expect this to change and consider this data-collection advantage as more or less structural or permanent in nature.
Let me be clear — I am absolutely not advocating changes in our privacy laws to make them more like China’s.
I love the freedom of living in a liberal democracy and frankly much of the Big Brother-type surveillance in China is way too creepy for my taste. But AI algorithms do not give two bits about what I think or about all of that touchy-feely human rights stuff — like Audrey II in the film Little Shop of Horrors, all they want is to get fed and there’s nothing tastier than a constant supply of high-quality data.
The two key points I want to make here:
1，We need to be aware that there might be some trade-offs between enjoying the protection of strict privacy laws and our ability to collect high-quality data for use in developing AI for real-world use cases [2].
2，In the coming years, we should not be at all surprised to see major AI developmental milestones coming out of China due to the massive amount of high-quality data that Chinese entrepreneurs and businesses have to work with.
Notes:
[1] I discuss this idea in greater detail in another answer: Why is the US behind China in moving to mobile cashless transactions?
[2] It could also very well turn out not to be such a large disadvantage after all: AI covers a wide range of applications and industries and many are not so dependent — or dependent at all — on protected consumer data. Furthermore, there could also be fantastic opportunities to build businesses that protect privacy as well, as Fred Wilson discussed in a recent blog post: DuckDuckGo Moves Beyond Search.
14.1k Views,206 Upvote

中国可能会在AI领域领先世界。至少会是这个领域的领先者之一。
原因很简单，归根结底只在一点：数据。
数据是搞定AI算法的关键，而中国正在数据搜集的领域飞速建立优势：
1，数据的数量：在过去五年多的时间里，中国把它的经济进行了数据化，为今天开发AI算法积累了海量的数据。例如：某BBC记者七分钟就被中国监控网络揪出。

2，数据的质量：数据的数量很重要，但质量一样重要，而中国的数据质量可谓极佳。所谓“质量好”，我的意思是这些数据是可用的，而非乱七八糟的那种。例如，在中国，数据通常可以追踪到真实可验的身份，而不是什么匿名的身份。
3，数据的集中和分享：在中国，数据集中在少数垄断了数据搜集资源的大公司那里（例如蚂蚁金服/腾讯的业务数据）。更少的隐私保护允许了数据被更轻松的搜集和分享（例如医疗记录）。

如大家所知，中国的隐私保护法不像美国和其他有能力在尖端AI领域竞争的国家那样严格。由于隐私所关联的人权在现代西方自由民主的体系里占据着重要的核心位置，我不期待这点会改变，我认为（中国）这种数据搜集上的优势会多多少少的结构化、乃至永久的持续下去。
要清楚的是——我绝不是在呼吁把我们的隐私法改成像中国那样。

我热爱这种生活在开明民主中的自由感，像中国那种老大哥式的监控体系实在是不对我的胃口。但是AI算法不在乎我怎么想，也不在乎所有那些感性的人权调调——就像《绿魔先生》电影里的奥黛丽二世（一只吸血花怪物）一样，它们需要喂食，而且没有比大量优质数据更合它们胃口的了。
我要说的两个关键是：
1，我们要知道，在享受严格的隐私保护，与开发日常实用的AI技术所需的优质数据之间，要有一个权衡。
2，在接下来几年，我们不要惊奇于看到中国在AI的主要领域里做出里程碑似的突破，因为它们的企业有海量的优质数据可供使用。

补充：
【1】我在另一个答案中更详细的讨论了这些想法：为什么在无现金手机支付上，美国落后于中国？
【2】其实也可能最后劣势并没有那么大：AI涵盖了很多种应用，许多都没这么——甚至完全不——依赖那些受保护的用户数据。况且，搞隐私保护的生意也可能意外是个好机遇，就像弗雷德威尔森在最近一个博客中讨论的那样。
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评论：

Pierre Wong
Jan 23 · 3 upvotes
“ I am absolutely not advocating for changes in our privacy laws to make them more like China’s.”
Totally agree with that, it’s so happens their condition is conducive to accelerating progress in the quest to master machine learning, which has huge hunger for data. It’s fascinating if you see strictly from the technicality of how machine learning works, at the same time it’s discomforting, not sure how it will impact their society in the end. It’s like police state with steroid.

“我绝不是呼吁把我们的隐私法改成像中国那样。”
完全同意这点，他们的情况恰好能让他们在机器学习上建立优势，因为这种技术正需要大量数据。如果你严格的从机器学习的机制来看，他们的状况当然很完美，但这同时也让人不安，因为无法确定这最后会怎样影响到他们的社会，这就像给一个极权国家打上激素。

Jean-Philippe de Lespinay
Jan 31 · 1 upvote
Glenn, you talk about AI without knowing what it is. Data is an algorithmic notion that has nothing to do with AI. The key to true AI is KNOWLEDGE. And knowledge, the whole world has it, more than China.
To understand it, one must already know what intelligence is, the function that AI is supposed to imitate: it is reasoning about knowledge. The more we know, the more we understand, the more intelligent we are. It is enough a computer reasons and owns a knowledge so that it solves all the problems pertaining to this knowledge, that it speaks to us in natural language, that it programs for us, that it is the companion the most helpful, helpful, knowledgeable and evolutive we can imagine. In the US we are very far from this AI. Google, IBM (Watson), Facebook and others deceive the public with algorithmic programs developed by computer scientists with classical computer languages that they call "AI" to do their advertising. But there is no mechanical intelligence in there .
The Chinese AI will be a threat to the West the day it understands what the Americans did not understand: that a computer must reason to become intelligent and do without computer scientists to develop millions of programs per second using human knowledge.

格伦，你连AI是啥都不知道，还在这讨论AI。数据只是一种算法概念，和AI没任何关系。制造AI的真正关键是知识。而知识全世界都有，比中国多。
要理解这点，你得先知道人工智能所要模仿的“智能”到底是啥：它能推导出知识。我们知道的越多，我们理解的越多，我们就越智能。一台电脑如果能推理并掌握知识，它就足以解决这种知识相关的一切问题，和我们用自然语言交流，为我们编程，成为我们所能想象的最有用、最有智慧、最先进的助手。在美国，我们距离这种人工智能还远着呢。谷歌、IBM、FB、以及其他公司们，用那些电脑专家通过传统电脑开发出来的算法程序欺骗大众，称之为AI程序，来做广告。那里根本就没有机械智能。
中国人的AI要在某一天成为西方的威胁，那得是它能美国人所不能：一台能靠推导变得智能的电脑，不靠电脑专家只靠人类知识，就能每秒开发数百万的程序。

Glenn Luk
Jan 31
I think we are talking about different types of AI. I don’t know what “mechanical intelligence” is. Not to put words in your mouth but frankly what you are describing sounds to me vaguely like Skynet or the Singularity. I don’t care much for either.
I am talking about AI that has practical real-world application. Like self-driving cars. Or real-time credit monitoring. And being able to feed real-world data to train AI algorithms is an important part of this.

我觉得我们说的不是一种AI。我不知道啥叫“机械智能”。不是我瞎说，坦率的讲，我觉得你说的那玩意在我听来有点像“天网”或“奇点”。哪种都无所谓了。
我在说的AI是现实世界的实际应用。像自动驾驶汽车，或实时信用监控这种。对于这些应用来说，用现实世界的数据来训练AI算法是很重要的部分。

Jean-Philippe de Lespinay
Jan 31
The AI I'm talking about has been working in user services of companies in France since 1987. With financial applications, logic simulations, conversational voice servers, hot lines, medical diagnostics, diagnostic aided by plan (flow logic), and more. Not yet in autonomous cars.
Hundreds of press articles have talked about it, plus references on the web. It is therefore very real and operational. If I spoke of mechanical intelligence it is to refer to the reasoning which is a mechanics (the syllogism).

我所说的AI技术从1987年起就在一些法国公司里用于用户服务的工作了，用在金融应用，逻辑模拟，语音对话，热线电话，医疗诊断，通过预设的流程逻辑进行诊断等方面。不过还未用于自动驾驶汽车上面。
数百篇出版文章讨论过这种技术，再算上网上文献。可见它是真实可用的。如果我刚才说了机械智能，那指的就是这种有推理能力的机械（三段论推理法）。

回答2：
Anant Jain, Co-Founder, Commonlounge.com
Answered Aug 3
Five factors are coming together in China that will make it an A.I. superpower in the next decade or so:
1，China has the lead in internet user numbers by country. According to FT, almost 800M users sent digital greetings for Lunar New Year in Feb 2018. At the same time, Alibaba reported 580M mobile monthly active users. The U.S giants, Google and Facebook, are primarily cut off from this population and don’t have access to their data thanks to China’s great “internet firewall.”
2，Chinese platforms are feature-rich, and hence, data-rich. Tencent’s WeChat spans various segments of consumer usage like photos, social networks, games, finances, etc. Alibaba is the e-commerce and retail giant in the country with data on searches, retail, payments, among others.
3，Compared to other countries, Chinese internet users are more willing to share their data. According to GfK Global Survey 2017 Report, China leads in percentage of people who responded that they are willing to share their personal data (health, financial, driving records, energy use, etc.) in exchange for benefits or rewards like lower costs or personalized service. Baidu’s CEO, Robin Li, came under fire earlier this year for claiming that people in China don’t much care about what’s done with their personal data.
4，The Chinese Government is highly focused on developing AI. Last summer, China’s State Council issued an ambitious policy blueprint calling for the nation to become “the world’s primary AI innovation center” by 2030. It’s unknown how much China is going to spend over the next decade or so, but so far, the government of Tianjin, an eastern city near Beijing, said it planned to set up a $5 billion fund to support the A.I. industry and Beijing has committed $2 billion to an A.I. development park in the city. These are significant investments that overshadow other countries.
5，The Chinese Government is interested in collecting as much data on its citizens as possible. Across China, a network of 176 million surveillance cameras watch the country’s 1.3 billion citizens. To test the full capabilities of the system, the BBC sent a journalist to Guiyang, a city of 3.5 million people, to see if he could get lost in the crowd. The Surveillance cameras readily identified the journalist and police had him in custody within just seven minutes. Chinese AI startup SenseTime, a company that develops people surveillance software for the country’s law enforcement, recently finished a new funding round worth $600 million raising its total valuation to over $4.5 billion in May 2018.
If you put the above five factors together, you have the perfect brew for rapid A.I. advancements: a country with the largest number of internet-connected users who are more likely to share their data with feature-rich platforms in a walled garden served by a government focussed on developing A.I. and interested in collecting as much data on its citizens as possible.
Moreover, China’s progress over the past decade shows that this is actually working. In the Stanford Question Answering Dataset, an A.I. prediction benchmark that researchers are actively competing on right now, Alibaba and Microsoft tied for the top spot in January this year. Compare this to just eight years ago, when in Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge 2010, another benchmark at the time, the top Chinese entrant was at the 11th place.
The United States is still ahead for now, but China is focused, organized, and gaining rapidly.
6.7k Views · 55 Upvoters

五项因素决定了中国或将掌握下一时代的AI霸权：
1，中国作为一个国家有着数量最多的网民。根据FT的数据，在2018年二月大概有8亿用户通过网络发送农历新年的祝福。同时，阿里巴巴所报告的月活用户达到了5.8亿。而多亏了“墙”，美国的巨头，谷歌和脸书，基本是和这些人口绝缘了，无法得到他们的数据。
2，中国网络平台的功能都很丰富，所以数据也就相应的丰富了。腾讯的微信涵盖了消费者使用的各种层面，像拍照、社交、游戏、理财等等。阿里巴巴是这个国家的电商和零售业巨头，掌握了搜索、零售、支付、以及一些其他方面的数据。

3，相比于其他国家，中国的网民更喜欢分享他们的数据。根绝GFK2017年的全球调查报告，为了像促销或个性化服务这类的收益奖励，中国人在愿意分享私人数据（健康，财务，驾驶记录，能源使用等等）的比例上领先。百度CEO李彦宏在今年早些时候受到了抨击，因为他声称中国人不太在乎他们的私人数据被拿来干什么。
4，中国政府高度重视发展AI。去年夏天，中国国务院做出了一幅宏大的政治蓝图，声称中国要在2030年成为“世界主要人工智能创新中心”。目前尚不清楚中国将在下个阶段花多少钱，但到目前为止，北京东边一个叫天津的城市，已声称它计划成立一个50亿美元的基金来支持AI产业，而北京也已承诺要在这个城市的AI发展园区里投入20亿美元了。这都是其他国家所没有的重要投资。

5，中国政府乐于尽可能的搜集其公民的数据。一个由1亿7600万监控摄像头组成的监控网络，横跨中国，监视着中国的13亿公民。为了充分测试这个系统的能力，BBC向有着350万人口的贵阳派出了一个记者，去看看他是否会被迷失在人群之中。监控摄像头很容易就识别到了这个记者，警察在七分钟内就拘捕到了他。中国的一家AI初创公司，SenseTime，专门为国家执法机关开发人员监控软件，刚完成了新一轮价值6亿美元的融资，把市值于2018年的5月提升到了45亿美元。
如果你把以上五点放到一起，你就有了一个让AI快速发展的完美环境：一个有着大量网民的国家，这些网民都愿意把数据分享到功能丰富的平台上，这个被高墙隔断的“花园”，又由一个聚焦于发展AI和喜欢尽可能搜集其公民数据的政府所打理。

此外，中国在过去这段时间的进步，也证明了以上确实有效。斯坦福大学发起的“文本阅读理解挑战赛”是一个研究人员积极参与竞争的AI排名比赛，阿里巴巴和微软在今年2月并列获得了第一名。相比于此，仅仅八年之前，在ILSVRC-2010（ImageNet大规模视觉识别挑战赛2010,有人工智能“世界杯”之称），也就是当时的另一个排名比赛中，中国最好的参赛者成绩是第11名。
美国现在依旧领先，不过中国已经在专注、蓄力，和加快速度了。
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评论：

J. Zhang
Aug 3 · 3 upvotes
I think the data advantage is overhyped. AI needs better algorithms, not more data.

我觉得数据的优势被高估了，AI需要更好的算法，不是更多的数据。

Poul Kristensen
Sep 28
The things you mention doesn't have anything to do with AI or the development of AI.

你说的这些玩意和AI或者AI发展没任何关系。

回答3：
B. A. Rehl, Human-Level AGI & Cognitive Theory Research (2013-present)
Answered May 23
Well, let’s see. I am currently the world’s leading scientist in human-level machine intelligence. Let me check the mirror. No, I don’t look Chinese. Let me look outside. No, I’m not in China. Let me check my files. I have several years and hundreds of pages of research that have remain unpublished due to the election. It’s several decades ahead of what people (including those in China) think is cutting edge today. In contrast, China has journal articles that are overflowing with plagiarism and faked results.
The real questions are how long it will take China to catch up once the files are published, and if the US will cripple its own future research efforts by electing more incompetent Republican fools like Trump. However, even if American voters can’t get over their Fox addiction, I can’t see how China could pull ahead of western Europe without help, maybe from Japan and India.
314 Views ，3 upvotes

好吧，让我看看。我就是世界前列的人类水平机器智能领域的科学家。让我照照镜子。不，我看起来不是中国人。让我看看窗外。不，我不是在中国。让我看看我的文档，我有多年积累的数百页的研究文件因为大选的原因而留待发表。它们领先数代于人们（包括中国人）所以为的当今前沿技术。相比之下，中国的期刊文章则充斥着抄袭和伪造的成果。
真正的问题应该是，一旦我的研究文件发表，而美国又选举了尤其无能的共和党废物如床破这种，而导致自废科研前途，那中国需要多少年才能赶上美国。不管怎么说，即便美国的投票者无法从FOX的忽悠中清醒过来，我也看不出中国该怎样在没有帮助的情况下领先西欧，或许日本和印度会帮助它吧。