国家利益杂志：日本对华外交为何会失败 [美国媒体]

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe just did a disservice to Japan, its alliance with the United States, and the man he calls his friend, President Donald Trump. At a time when Washington and its allies are increasingly standing up to China, be expand Japan-China ties ranging from business to sports. Appallingly, Abe expressed a desire to participate in “infrastructure projects” related to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing’s flagship means of spreading economic influence and corruption around the globe. The Japanese leader even proposed “shifting from competition to collaboration” with the world’s largest kleptocracy.

日本首相安倍晋三做了一件伤害日本以及日本与美国的同盟关系，以及他所称的朋友唐纳德特朗普总统的坏事。在华盛顿及其盟友越来越多的站出来对抗中国之际，安倍开承诺要扩大从商业到体育的日中关系。令人震惊的是，安倍表示希望参与中国一带一路倡议有关的“基础设施项目”，这是北京在全球传播经济影响力和腐败的主要手段。这位日本领导人甚至提议与全球最大的盗窃者“从竞争转向合作”。

Earlier Vice President Mike Pence gave a watershed speech that reflected a fundamental change in U.S. policy toward China. He noted, “America had hoped that economic liberalization would bring China into a greater partnership with us and with the world.Instead, China has chosen economic aggression, which has, in turn, emboldened its growing military.” Furthermore, Pence declared that “More business leaders are thinking beyond the next quarter, and thinking twice before diving into the Chinese market if it means turning over their intellectual property.”

早些时候，美国副总统彭斯发表了一个具有分水岭意义的讲话，反映出美国对华政策的根本变化。他说：“美国曾希望经济自由化将使中国与我们和世界建立更大的伙伴关系。
然而相反，中国选择了经济侵略，这反过来又使其不断增长的军事实力更加强大。此外，彭斯还宣称，“更多的商界领袖正在考虑下一季度的事情，如果这意味着要交出他们的知识产权，那么在进入中国市场之前要三思。”

Getting to the point where Pence could make such a concise testament wasn’t just a herculean effort within a government bureaucracy disinclined to speak plainly about China. It was the culmination of the years-long work of unnamed thousands who have toiled to illustrate the folly of appeasing Beijing, as America’s foreign policy and business establishments have done firmly for decades.

在一个不愿直言不讳地谈论中国的政府官僚体系中，彭斯能够做出如此简洁确实的说明，这不仅仅是一项艰巨的尝试。这是无数不为人知的人多年工作的结果，他们努力证明安抚北京是愚蠢的，就像美国的外交政策和商业机构几十年来所做的那样。

Amid this fundamental shift—made possible only by the presidency of Donald Trump—Abe chose to travel to China and seek business deals. In fact, American and allied navies have been taking many risks to assert freedom of navigation in the Pacific and to protect the very sea lanes for trade on which Japan depends.

在这种只有唐纳德特朗普总统任内才有可能实现的根本性转变中，安倍晋三选择了到中国寻求商业交易。事实上，美国和盟国的海军为了维护太平洋的航行自由，为了保护日本赖以生存的海上航线，已经冒了很多风险。

While negotiations were supposedly proceeding at high levels of both governments since early in the Trump administration, only recently did Abe agree to proceed in earnest. A senior administration official recently described the change to me as evolving the process “from bullshit to not bullshit.” But any serious entente between Tokyo and Beijing could only erect obstacles to a deal with Washington.

自特朗普政府执政初期以来，两国政府的高层谈判都在进行，但直到最近，安倍才同意认真推进谈判。最近，一位政府高级官员将这一变化描述为从“废话”到“不扯淡”的演变过程。但是，东京和北京之间的任何重要的协议只会为与华盛顿达成协议设置障碍。

One of the innovations of the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement is that it prohibits side agreements with non-market economies such as China. Since the United States is sticking its neck out to confront China for its theft of intellectual property and other unfair trade practices—something that will benefit the whole world if it succeeds—the Trump administration understandably does not want its major trading partners to provide Beijing with relief.

美国-墨西哥-加拿大新协议的一个创新之处是，它禁止与中国等非市场经济国家签订附带协议。既然美国正竭尽全力对抗中国窃取知识产权和其他不公平贸易行为（如果美国成功的话，这将使全世界受益），特朗普政府不希望其主要贸易伙伴为中国减轻压力，是可以理解的。

If a deepening Japan-China relationship stalls U.S. trade talks, it will likely mean Japan will find itself subject to the same higher tariffs that others who refuse trade reform have faced—especially higher duties on their goods. Trump is likely to enact tariffs on automobiles and car parts, which would impact Japan significantly. Furthermore, if talks falter, Abe—who sought economic reforms that never quite materialized—could lose the last political lever with which to force domestic structural reforms before his premiership ends.

如果日中关系不断加深，阻碍了美国的贸易谈判，这很可能意味着日本将面临与其他拒绝贸易改革的国家同样的高关税，甚至对其商品征收更高的关税。特朗普很可能会对汽车和汽车零部件征收关税，这将对日本产生重大影响。此外，如果谈判失败，寻求经济改革但从未真正实现的安倍晋三，可能会失去在其任期结束前推进国内结构改革的最后政治手段。

America never expects total agreement from its allies and seeks partnership, not servility. Washington does expect fairness and no longer will look the other way at those who take advantage of Americans. This is particularly true of countries that underfund their defense and expect the United States to fill a security gap, which is the case with a Japan that spends only about 1 percent of its GDP on defense.

美国从不指望其盟国的完全同意，是寻求合作伙伴关系，而不是卑躬屈膝。华盛顿确实期望公平，不再对那些利用美国人的人视而不见。尤其是那些国防预算不足、期望美国填补安全缺口的国家，日本的国防开支仅占其GDP 的百分之一。

There is still tremendous goodwill in U.S. security circles for Japan, and Abe enjoys perhaps the best relationship of any foreign leader with Trump. Part of that is based on assumptions that Tokyo and Washington will collaborate closely on North Korea, economic issues, and especially China. If these assumptions turn out no longer to be true—if Japan comes to be seen in a similar light to Germany and France, which contribute little to the common defense and strive to preserve unfair trade practices—then both Japan and America will be worse off, and the only real winner will be China.

美国安全界对日本仍有巨大的善意，安倍与特朗普的关系可能是任何外国领导人中最好的。这部分是基于这样的假设：即东京和华盛顿将在朝鲜、经济问题，特别是中国问题上密切合作。如果这些假设不再是真的--如果人们对日本的看法与德国和法国相似，对共同防御几乎没有贡献，而且努力维护不公平的贸易惯例，那么日本和美国的情况都会更糟，唯一真正的赢家将是中国。

Let’s hope Tokyo’s outreach to Beijing ends up being kabuki theater, not a real shift.

让我们希望东京对北京的宣传最终成为歌舞伎演出，而不是真正的转变。